Djokovic Vs Nadal Final - Who Will Win? #4

Naturally, having made the first thread of this kind after the Wimbledon Quarter-finals last year when it wasn't even known if Nadal or Djokovic would even make that final, I learnt that a bit of good grace would be better subsequently (rather than playing mystic meg ), so I have delayed setting up these threads but here we are again, for a historic first time in the slams where the same 2 opponents have faced each other at all the slams. Federer came so close, having on two occasions double match points but failed but now it's finally happened but not with Federer.

Who will win: there's so much to argue either way. Nadal with his 3 clay court titles this year plus his 6 RG crowns. Djokovic with his 3 in a row @ the slams and his defeat of Nadal in the last 3 slam encounters. Despite being a Federer fan, I pleased with this final, even though Federer lost. I'm hoping we have a competitive RG Final for the first time since 2004 and dearly hope we get 5 close sets.

A simple question and a simple debate on who will win this Sunday. History will be made either way but for who?

Djokovic...

...or Nadal?

Nadal should win as this is his best surface.

I have went for Nadal in four sets. He has looked untouchable once more at RG and Novak Djokovic has had an arduous road (by comparison) to the final. However, this is immaterial as I believe Nadal is on a different level to everyone else ON THIS SURFACE. He will win on Sunday and pick up the title of 'the greatest clay courter of all-time'.

Nadal in 4.
But this is such a tough one to call as the dynamic between them can change everything that has happened so fat this event.

BTW...why are there Nadal and Djokovic choices above as well as Nadal 3/4/5 and Djokovic 3/4/5?

I know there is a lot of pressure for Novak to complete the slam but put yourself in Rafas shoes, being beaten in all 4 slam finals but one man would be a bitter pill to swallow, and to lose in your own backyard, it could break him

All Rafa has to do is play as good as Seppii minus the choke
(or Tsonga come to that)... and hey BINGO

With regards to your querry lydian, I want posters to pick a general winner and then how many sets the victor will win by. However it leads to a slightly strange fraction display which I didn't realise until people voted in the poll, but the general idea is you vote twice....

In a way CAS. I'm sure Nadal doesnt want the reverse ignamy of being the 4-in-a-row man who lost slam finals to the same player. This will spur him on. Where us 'mortals' see it as immense pressure on both, they use it as a means to focus. I think Nadal has got used to the pressure of losing to Djokovic, he doesnt look at records - or says he doesnt. He'll just treat it as a match. If he plays as he's been doing then he's going to be very tough to beat, even by Djokovic.

luciusmann wrote:With regards to your querry lydian, I want posters to pick a general winner and then how many sets the victor will win by. However it leads to a slightly strange fraction display which I didn't realise until people voted in the poll, but the general idea is you vote twice....

Okay I have changed my vote to Nadal and Nadal in four.

If Novak Djokovic does win after his two day rest, then I see Djokovic going on to get the calendar slam as well.

At the US Open 2011 he faced two match points in the semi-final, but came back to win the slam.

At the FO 2012 this year he faced four match points in the quarter-final, but came back to reach the final.

Although Nadal has to be the favorite on Sunday, Nadal has lost the past three grand-slam finals to Djokovic.

Even before Djokovic MkII appeared in 2011, Nadal said his most difficult opponent was Djokovic (not Federer or anyone else).

Ah...ok lucuisman, I didnt realise you could vote twice

Djokovic.

Djokovic will win in 5 sets. Nadal has yet to be tested while Novak seems to be resurgent following his epic tightrope act against Seppi and Tsonga. Look for Djokovic's return to get to Nadal's serve over the course of five sets. Nadal has held something like 65 times in a row but none of those 65 games where against Djokovic. Fed came into the Djoko match leading the ATP in hold percentage and albeit on a tough conditioned day he still broke fed an incredible 7 times in 3 sets.

Yes NS...tennis is all about match-ups. Djokovic is a bad match up for Nadal...but I have faith Nadal has made adjustments and will prevail this time around, lets not underestimate the challenge for Djokovic of Nadal in full form either.

Socal...he broke a far off form Federer 7 times. A Federer that struggled just about every round this RG.

Nadal, and I think it could be brutal.

Djokovic dropped serve a lot today against a guy who it appears wasn't playing very well.

Yes but he did just beat the goat albeit certainly a bit off his best in 3 sets. Novak has another gear left from this performance maybe two. Nadal hasn't really played anyone. While Novak has beaten 2 top 5 players both of them in hostile road game type atmospheres. He is the first guy Nadal will play who if Nadal punches him in the mouth he won't just buckle under and take the beating he will hit back.

social1976

I disagree as IMO Nadal has been tested but so far he's past all the tests with flying colours. Did you see him play today? It was scary stuff. Federer was for whatever reason appalling today but Ferrer wasn't.

If Nadal plays the way he has been playing for the last 2 weeks Djokovic doesn't stand a chance (neither would anyone else) whatever he does. Novaks only hope is that Rafa doesn't play at this level.

I'll stand by my prediction but Novak is a different animal than Roger Federer I feel. He plays to win and can do that by not playing at his best and can up his game to suit the match position as we have seen in the past. When Federer was in his prime he just blew everyone off the court. Same outcomes achieved but in different and equally impressive ways in my opinion.

hawkeye wrote:social1976

I disagree as IMO Nadal has been tested but so far he's past all the tests with flying colours. Did you see him play today? It was scary stuff. Federer was for whatever reason appalling today but Ferrer wasn't.

If Nadal plays the way he has been playing for the last 2 weeks Djokovic doesn't stand a chance (neither would anyone else) whatever he does. Novaks only hope is that Rafa doesn't play at this level.

Ferrer crumbled like a cookie after failing to break in game 5 of the first set. Poor David on this slow court had to hit so many flat shots to try to hit through Nadal. Nadal is playing well no question. But he hasn't faced a test match in some months where the other player has been playing well and has had the ability to hurt him on clay, not many players do. I wasn't overly impressed with Nadal more dissappointed for Ferrer who literally came off the hinges after not putting a routine volley away on break point.

Djokovic is winning. Whether in 3, 4 or 5 but he is winning.

He is a beast in slam finals.

I think it will be something like 7-5 7-6 3-6 7-5 to Rafa

Nadal in 4, he is going to go nuclear over Djoko, show him who's the boss and avenge his friends (Fed's) loss with a clinical precision.

I personally went for Djokovic in 5 because I think that Djokovic has shown that against top players through RG and @ the Aussie Open, when his back is against the wall, he fights back and hard.

Just looking @ this year (there are many last year too):

a) He was facing near likely loss to Nadal when he was 4-2 down in the final set @ the Aussie Open and was it 15-30 in the 9th game? Whatever the exact score, it looked like Nadal had beaten him.

b) 4R RG he was 2 sets down to Seppi and again looking like he would lose but he fights back.

c) This time in the quarter finals, he was even closer to losing, he faced 4 match points and saved all of them to dispatch Tsonga

d) This time in the semi finals, his nemsis of last year who snapped his winning streak was attempting a massive fight back breaking Djokovic twice to take a 3-0 lead in the second set but Djokovic takes on the fight and not only levels it eventually but actually takes the set and the rest is history

All of these episodes above but especially the 3/4 @ RG makes me feel that Djokovic is going to believe he has God or fate on his side and the way he's played so brashly when facing defeat in the face suggests he will raise his game against Nadal when he needs to, just like he had to against Fed in that second set.

Having said that, Nadal's recent record can't be ignored, he's been thrashing all before him and he's picked up 3 clay court titles already this year and defeated Djokovic on his way to 2 of them. It may seem simple for Nadal but I don't think the final will prove that easy. It may very well be close and it's hard to bet against Nadal but one thing I am sure of is that if Djokovic does win, it will be 5 hard fought sets. I still think history favours Nadal because other specialist players of particular surfaces (like Sampras) have won 7 which is why it's hard to say but you do sense @ clutch moments Djokovic will have the upper hand...that's just my sense...

Some say Djokovic to win is as unlikely as Chelsea beating Barcelona over two legs, playing with ten men at the Nou Camp, followed by a win over Bayern Munich in Bayern's home ground.

I go for Nadal, head and heart, but I would be extra happy with a 7/8 hour epic that leaves both men done for Wimbledon

Nadal hasn't lost a set on the red clay this year.

Very good post by Lucius that is the one thing that Nadal really hasn't had to deal with so far this clay court season. When he has gotten on a roll the other guy has pretty much wilted. The only player he played this whole tournament that had the weight of shot to hurt him was Almagro. Unfortunately Almagro is infamous for crumbling in big situations, Novak isn't going to have that problem. Nadal is the favorite, Nadal is the one defending so Novak I think will come out and handle the pressure well.

As you say lucius he has been winning most of his close matches for the last 18 months or so. And I think has both to do with his confidence and with his style of play. He has a very high percentage game that plays well in crucial situation. What I like to call solid aggressive.

Nore Staat wrote:Some say Djokovic to win is as unlikely as Chelsea beating Barcelona over two legs, playing with ten men at the Nou Camp, followed by a win over Bayern Munich in Bayern's home ground.

I know everyone has been getting carried away comparing everything to chelsea but it may actually be an apt analogy in this case. Nadal in this tournament has been Barca running away with everything and breezing his way through the tournament. Meanwhile Djoko has been chelsea having to fight back in the scoreline constantly. Nadal is the heavy favorite but Novak has the two things that no one Nadal has played this week has had together that you need to beat Nadal.

1. Weight of shot and weapons: Return, backhand, forehand, and serve of Djoko when he is playing well can all make a dent in Nadal's defenses

2. Mental and physical toughness and competitive greatness: This is the hurdle most of Nadal's opponents fail at. To beat Nadal on clay you need moxy, confidence, and mental and physical durability.

Almagro had weapons but isn't a great competitor. Little David has the heart but doesn't have the weapons. Djokovic will test Nadal with both aspects on Sunday. Nadal should be the heavy favorite and maybe will win. But i am taking Novak. He has started to just find his groove this tournament and peak at the right time. He played a very clean match in tough conditions against federer that bodes well for his timing.

The favourite for Sunday is Nadull in all aspects. After two wins over Nole on the clay he found his confidence and rhytm. But in my opinion the winner will be who shows better fitness on tomorrow session and of course mindset. I do not have a doubt that Nole has better nerves, so question is how both of them will be stamina wise.
I see as a key for the match the first set. If Nadull wins, then he has 90% chance to win it. Then only 120% game from Nole could come back him to the match. If Nole wins the first set then I see their chances as 50/50.
I would like to see how would Nadull hold his nerves if he would be loosing, what poking, scratching and cleaning had to be. But the surface favours his game so a lot, as Roger says he is overwhelming favourite. If he does not win, then I do not know what French should prepare for him to win it

Let not Djoko get himself in the position he was with Seppi or Tsonga... yes he got himself (with a little help from his friends) out of that situation .. do you honestly believe that Rafa will be so obliging.. I think not.

Nole in 4 or 5 sets.

Nole wins the final in 5.

Haddie-nuff wrote:Let not Djoko get himself in the position he was with Seppi or Tsonga... yes he got himself (with a little help from his friends) out of that situation .. do you honestly believe that Rafa will be so obliging.. I think not.

What a crazy match haddie. Who knows if he can get out of the situation again against a player of Nadal's pedigree. Now we will see if he can pull the same feat on Nadal it would be a pretty mammoth task.