Chirstine Ohurugu - Women's 400m

What do we think of Ohurugu's chances, and of her form so far this season?!

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Just came across this useful BBC article on Ohurugu;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18396843

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Ohurugu has run 50.93, 51.19 and 50.69 [ exact sequence of performances ]. According to the BBC article, this is the fastest she's run heading into a major championship. I've been very impressed with her this season, and it's clear that she's been working very hard.

What are peoples' thoughts on Ohurugu?!

Her chances? Main competitiors? Could she take another title running in the mid 49's - or she going to have to really pull something out of the bag this Olympics?!

Would expect her to make the final SJ! As for her chances...it realy just depends. i personally feel a sub 49 will win it, do you think shes capable of that? Rivals- the americans felix and richards ross, plus montsho??(think im talkimg about the right person). I do think she looks to be in the best shape(or close to) that shes ever been

p.s.

Keep the threads coming SJ, like i said before im havin internet access issues atm so cant do much research to start interesting threads, but love a bit of athletics talk/debate.

Was talking about ohurugu being in the best shape btw, incase that wasnt clear.

Ohurugu looks in prett good form. It's never been her style to post hugely impressive times heading into championships, but she's very good at working her way through the rounds. Let's not forget she produced a storming relay leg in the indoors too.

Time-wise, it's increasingly rare for sub-49 performances at major champs (correct me if I'm wrong but I think they've only been 2 this century, 03 worlds with the Mexican (?) girl whose name escapes me, and Richards at the 09 worlds - when there wasn't so much pressure on her due in part to Ohurugu's injury worries). I think mid-49s will probably get her right in the mix, a medal at the very least.

Competition-wise, Montsho, Richards-Ross, Felix are her three main rivals, and they're a couple of Jamaicans with decent times too. Anyone know if Felix has decided which distance(s) she'll be running yet? Mentally, Ohurugu's as strong as they come, I think she's in with a shot.

Last I read, Felix was going to concentrate on the 200m. Can't always believe these reports though.

Seems that COO does tend to do better at major championships. The Americans have to peak twice so they will be at a disadvantage come the Olympics but I still expect Richards-Ross to do well.

Like MfC, I doubt if we'll see a sub-49 clocking and expect a low 49 will probably win it. I also agree with MfC that a mid 49 performer will probably medal. Christine should be in the mix.

Regarding rarity of sub49 clocking at Worlds and Olympics women's 400m's, you are right Mad for Chelsea [ and teassoc ]. I've had a quick skim through the records and got the following stats;

Winning times for previous Worlds and Olympics women's 400m;

2011 Daegu - 49.56

2009 Berlin - 49.00

2008 Beijing - 49.62

2007 Osaka - 49.61

2005 Helsinki - 49.55

2004 Athens -49.41

2003 France - 48.89

2001 Edmonton - 49.86

We might be able to guess at some of the reasons as to why there is a rarity of sub49 400m in global events. I think particularly that it'sa tough event, even to run as a one-off at say for example a Diamond League event. But doing all the rounds and then the final, within the space of a week or so, is hard on the body. And on th eback of the earlier rounds, then trying to pace and time the perfect is run becomes all the more harder. Every now and again, someone might get it right in the final and run a very low 49 or even a sub49. But more often than not, judging by the stats, after having run a number of rounds, there's only so much the body's got to give, and it becomes all about maintaining a solid pace and timing the final attack, rather than blasting out of the blocks. This is perhaps why, when Ohurugu was fit, she did so well. She understood better than most - and likely, on the whole, still does. She's had to deal with accusations that she was possibly never quite fast enough to deserve these titles, when actually - looking at the stats - she wasn't doing too badly at all.

Let's see if it's any different this year

excellent post SJ: for starters it backs up my memory of events (well, almost. I thought Richards-Ross had gone sub 49 in Berlin, but not far off) and then of course I think your explanation is spot on. The longer sprints (400 and 400H) are the toughest events to go through the rounds of I think as you need to be running pretty quick through each round (unlike the 800 where you kind of cruise through the heats). That takes a lot out of you. Both Christine's major wins have come from opponents fading badly down the home straight, which suggests she does indeed pace herself better.

What the times show is that on most occasions a clocking of 49.5 or thereabouts puts you right in the mix. Thus I think Ohurugu has an excellent chance.

Ana Guevara?

Anyway tellingly the two fastest times by a distance in major champs are when there was a clear favourite who had a lot of margin and could afford to run relaxed. As soon as the race is close the times are down by about half a second.

I expect this year to be close, ergo it should be won in 49.4 at the quickest. That does give CO a shot, at least for a medal...

I expect this year to be close, ergo it should be won in 49.4 at the quickest. That does give CO a shot, at least for a medal...

If the race is to be won in low 49's - then I guess the British Record is possibly on this year

As a few of us have now discussed and suggested, Ohurugu seems to be coming into good form. If it's going to take 49.4 to take the Olympic title this year, and we think that Ohurugu has a strong chance [ at least some of us might ], then we might consider that the British Record, held by Kathy Cook since 1984 [ set at the Los Angeles Olympics ], may be under threat finally. I do believe this is realistic

Also, worth thinking about; saw an interview with Nicola Sanders, who
I've always rated, after what was not a good race [ in the 52's - though
she'd had the misfortune of an inside lane ]. She was adamant she was
in the form to probably run 49's this season.

Now, I suppose athlete's often like to talk themselves up - but I also believe athletes know
themselves and their form better than anyone can, and that if Sanders
believes she is in 49sec condition this season, then there may be
something quite special to come from her this season. What do people
think?!

It would be great to see her back to her best, both at the individual level and for the relay team.

Lane 1 in Oslo (?) seemed a very poor lane for her. So let's see how she does at the trials with a more favorable lane draw.

I have to say that I wouldn't bet on her chances though. A 51 low something would be good for the relay though.

SJ
I believe that barring injuries Nicola Sanders is our best ever 400M runner and would be the record holder with many titles.
I really hope she can stay injury free this year and realise her potential before she gets too old.

Yes indeed Skimpton. Sanders is an athlete with phenomenal natural ability. I always thought she was the naturally more faster out her and Ohurugu [ although clearly a master tactician ]. But those injuries have eaten up into her career. God knows how that must affected her personally, let alone her career. Let's hope she can overcome all of these issues and realise some of that blatent potential.

A further women's 400m runner, [ now retired, I should've add earlier ], to add to the list of greats whose career too was blighted by injury, is Katherine Merry. 2nd on the British All-time list with 49.59s,[ also with 200m PB 22.76 - which she did running into a headwind! ]. Too many British athletes affected by Injury.

We should be a power house in the women's 400m, right now, with Ohurugu and Sanders, had it not been for those spate of injuries. Shame