HEC : Pool 5 predictions

Post by Portnoy Today at 18:28
Be careful how you chose best runner-up

More to come :

reminder of pools

Pool 1 Munster Edinburgh Saracens Racing Metro
Pool 2 Toulouse Leicester Ospreys Treviso
Pool 3 Biarritz Harlequins Connacht Zebra
Pool 4 Northampton Ulster Glasgow Castres
Pool 5 Leinster Clermont Scarlets Exeter
Pool 6 Cardiff Toulon Sale Montpellier

Sadly I think it'll be Leinster, Clermont, Scarlets, Exeter. Ruddy horrible group for us with a danger of coming last. Can't see us doing much next season - far too much disruption.

Welcome to the HC Chiefs! You aim to be in the top competition and you want to play the best, but you probably don't think you'll end up with the 2 best teams in Europe!

Leinster as winners.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Leinster as winners.

dunno. clermont would have won the semi if they had not lost a few players to injury during the game. they came within a bicep of doing it anyway.

They should have won the qf in 2010 too had it not been for brock's kicking.

they are due a win or 2 against us.

my prediction is that all associated with Exeter Chiefs will enjoy the experience (not necessarily the results though)

I think the presence of each other will force Leinster and Clermont to be really switched on for all of their games against the other 2 sides. Exeter are new to the competition and will put up a decent scrap at SP but I think they'll lack the experience and squad depth to be very competitive. Scarlets have lost their coach and a number of players, don't think they'll have much of a say given the level required against the 2 heavyweights. A minimum 15 points each from their other 4 games and a win apiece vs one another plus possible LBPs and that should see both sides through. I've gone for Leinster as group winners as I expect them to get more TBPs against the weaker 2 sides. Could easily go the other way though. Can't see QFs without either, I think they'll both do what they have to in order to progress.

I can see Clermont winning this pool, by virtue of game points/tries scored. The hurt of last season, added to the fact, that they are only the 2nd best team in Europe by a smidgeon, will drive them on.

Its how Leinster won their right to an assault on it again, after Toulouse took us in a SF down there in 2010.

Beware of Clermont-Montferrand. My pick for HC Champions 2013.

But hopefully, not in my Town.

I hope we meet in the Final, in Dublin. It would be righteous.

Moorsman wrote:my prediction is that all associated with Exeter Chiefs will enjoy the experience (not necessarily the results though)

+1. Some results, hopefully, but mainly the experience, particularly the experience we can share with other fans

Looking forward to renewing the good natured banter between ourselves and Clermont/Scarlets fans and hoping to give the Chiefs fans a big welcome to the RDS.

As to the results, well Clermont have shown that they're near feicing impossible to beat at the SMM so a BP loss there would suit me, we're likely to play them in Lansdowne for the return leg, which is a fortress in it's own right for us, i can see us having the killer instincts to deny them a BP. I expect we should be able to win the other 4 games, but like Glasgow and Bath last year we won't run away with the game. Leinster top, Clermont won't qualify as best runner up, they will come from the pools with Italian teams.

Clermont will top the group, just got a feeling.

So many teams in this one can take points off each other.

Then you've got my Scarlets where you just never really know how they're going to perform. They can pull some cracking performances out (see Saints away last season and Toulouse a few years back) but then again, we are just as capable of losing all the games too, that's just how we are!

I think we can win 3 though, and 4 if we're lucky (and actually stop playing like idiots) A lot will depend on how we develop with a new coach though and whether or not we actually we make any more forward signings (if we don't the HEC will be a big struggle)

Clermont definitely top for me though, with Leinster (or as I would hope, Scarlets) 2nd. Not sure if 2nd in this group would go through though, would be a tough one, but then I would say this and the O's group are the two hardest to call.

I'm going for Leinster as top with Exeter as second.

The early odds coming out of the english-speaking bookies to win the pool are:
Leinster 4/6 - 4/9
Clermont 17/10 - 13/8
Scarlets 12/1 - 35/1
Exeter 22/1 - 66/1

Leinster have the meanest odds out of all the pool winners, which surprises me a little since they're up against Clermont. I'd have Leinster at about evens and Clermont about 5/4, so there maybe a worthwhile flutter there on the French.