Rafa And Novak At Wimbledon

by hawkeye Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:07 am

As the number 1 and 2 seeds for Wimbledon Nadal and Djokovic will be expected to meet in the final. Until a few days ago when Nadal beat Djokovic to claim his 7th FO title most bookmakers had Djokovic as the favourite. Now both players are seen as joint favourites.

Personally I think that match has changed the odds even further as I would put Nadal as the favourite. Grass surely is Djokovics weakest surface because of his game style. He needs a consistant bounce to be able to take the ball early and can be a little inconsistant at the net. Of course these are relative weaknesses and he does have a nice shiny Wimbledon trophy at home to prove that he can still play well on this surface. But IMO not well enough to beat a more confident Nadal who has two shiny Wimbledon trophies and 5 Wimbledon final appearances to prove it.

Who is the favourite for Wimbledon?

by CaledonianCraig Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:55 am

Of those two I make Novak Djokovic the favourite. On any surface but clay he has the indian sign over Nadal of late winning all of the slam meetings barring RG over the last year or so.

by Guest Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:04 am

I went for none of the above.

I don't make either them favourites to be honest. Nadal playing Halle has surprised me and I don't think that was his best idea. Djokovic has been a tad out of sorts.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of them didn't make the final this year.

by User 774433 Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:36 am

LKV2, I think Nadal is getting some good match practice playing in Halle. Even though it is a 250 tournament like Queens the draw actually has less players, which means at most he only plays 4 matches.

by Positively 4th Street Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:51 am

IMBL, I agree. Being able to start on Thursday is a bonus if you're involved in the latter stages of RG. Nadal just likes to get a few matches under his belt so it should work out nicely.

by lags72 Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:53 am

I do see them as the two clear favourites but my vote has gone to Rafa.

So much between these guys is about confidence and I reckon Rafa is feeling pretty good after a run of three victories on the bounce vs his 2011 nemesis. Plus, Rafa's overall performance (across ALL rounds) at RG brought back much of his aura, even though admittedly he's generally expected to win there.

This time last year Novak came into Wimbledon having already picked up seven trophies along the way, inc. four straight wins over Rafa. To a great extent the tables are turned this time.

That said, if it all comes down to a five-set slugfest ..... then I reserve the right to switch to Novak... Wink

by Haddie-nuff Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:58 am

I think it was wise of Rafa to play Halle.. is is not an "important" enough tournament to worry him if he loses on the other hand he is getting the match practice on grass that he nees (plus he is playing doubles with Granollers which is good net practice on grass). His opening match yesterday (first set showed how much he needs that practice) though by the second set he was getting the feel of the court much better. His match against Kholschreiber today will be a good test for him

by lags72 Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:04 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:......................................... Nadal playing Halle has surprised me and I don't think that was his best idea. ........................

Even though Nadal's bank account is already bursting at the seams, I guess it's hard to turn down a guaranteed appearance fee of $1.2 million from the sponsors/organisers chin

But money apart, I'd say that Nadal gets so totally absorbed amidst the clay of his beloved RG that it's vital for him to acclimatise to grass rather than go straight to Wimbledon with a false sense of security.

by Guest Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:08 am

It Must Be Love wrote:LKV2, I think Nadal is getting some good match practice playing in Halle. Even though it is a 250 tournament like Queens the draw actually has less players, which means at most he only plays 4 matches.

Playing doubles too?

He isn't in the McEnroe mould. I think if anything after only playing RG over Sunday/Monday and then travelling to Halle so quickly?

I think he would've benefitted more from the rest if I am honest.

by Haddie-nuff Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:15 am

Lk

I think Rafa chooses more to play doubles (instead of training) he actually finds it a relaxation rather than work..But he is playing with Granollers as opposed to Mark Lopez his usual doubles partner.

by lydian Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:00 am

legendkillarV2 wrote:He isn't in the McEnroe mould.

Maybe not in terms of doubles talent...but 'yes' in terms of using it as singles practice as McEnroe did.
I think having gone so deep and long at RG he needed some grass competition to sharpen his teeth.
Doubles is fairly easy on these guys...there is hardly even any running around in top level doubles...but it gives good serve and volley practice.
I also dont think despite the drawn out ending to RG he was particularly taxed there this year so isnt as tired as people probably think.

Good tourny info. IMBL.

by Guest Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:03 am

lydian wrote:
legendkillarV2 wrote:He isn't in the McEnroe mould.
Maybe not in terms of doubles talent...but 'yes' in terms of using it as singles practice as McEnroe did.
I think having gone so deep and long at RG he needed some grass competition to sharpen his teeth.
Doubles is fairly easy on these guys...there is hardly even any running around in top level doubles...but it gives good serve and volley practice.
I also dont think despite the drawn out ending to RG he was particularly taxed there this year so isnt as tired as people probably think.

Good tourny info. IMBL.

I wasn't alluding to the doubles talent, but more that McEnroe's singles career went backwards with the success that he had in singles. I think because McEnroe had a sound all round game made it easier for form and surface adaption.

I don't see the benefits of doubles to the Nadal game. It may sharpen his volleying, but for me it is not an essential part of his game that needs major improvement because of how much he can rely on the baseline game that serves him so well for the moment in time. I don't see Nadal as a second serve and volley player.

by lydian Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:13 am

Agreed LK, Nadal is no S&V player. But on grass he will need to volley more than say RG...if nothing more than putting away weaker returns from his hard hit shots into the corners.

The other oddity is....I actually believe he enjoys doubles. Nadal is a 'team' player, he likes playing as part of a team...so you see him playing doubles far more than just about any of the top 10...maybe even top 20. He doesnt play with Marc Lopez (who is he they all say???) because he has to but because he enjoys it. So, here at Halle he gets to kill 2 birds with 1 stone...bit of practice/adjustment, bit of enjoyment...nothing too serious.

by Guest Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:21 am

Even more so than Murray??

Call me over concerned, but I feel given the niggles Rafa has had that it serve him better to not play so many doubles matches.

I agree he enjoys the team ethos. He gives his all for the Davis Cup cause and you can see how much he enjoys the team surrondings. I think if anything it helps him relax more on court.

by Chydremion Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:37 am

Nadal is a better grascourt player than Djokovic. This year Djokovic won't have the mental edge of 4 consecutive victories over Nadal if they play each other at Wimbledon.

by Henman Bill Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:16 pm

Less obvious who'll make the final here with more contenders however I voted Nadal as the favourite although I see Djokovic is slight favourite at most bookmakers at 7/4 typically, with Nadal at 9/4 or 2/1.

by Josiah Maiestas Fri Jun 15, 2012 1:55 pm

Nadal needs clay to get things done on Novak, and even that was a very close match at the French. I reckon an outsider will upset one of the 2, maybe both. They can't keep going to semi's and finals forever.

by luciusmann Fri Jun 15, 2012 2:22 pm

Is grass Djokovic's weakest surface? I'm not sure I agree with the OP's view it is. Djokovic has won more titles on clay than on grass, however this reflects how few grass court tournaments there are. In terms of the slams, there's no doubt hard court is the strongest surface (highest win % @ 85%) but grass comes next on 82%, and winning Wimbledon underlines this, RG on clay is last @ 79%. So this depends on how you look at it, however winning Wimbledon and his better runs there than @ RG recently suggests clay is weaker.

I think the 3 wins Nadal has had are significant, although let's look at where they have come....all on clay. Now I agree, a win is a win, however have they played away from clay this year? Yes. Who won? Djokovic @ the Aussie Open. Hardcourt is Djokovic's strongest surface and it was an immensely close match so Nadal has improved this year. Will it be enough? We will see, I have Djokovic has slight favourite because we're going to grass. On the surface Nadal has had his best results, he did as he was expected and won, there hasn't been enough evidence to to suggest Nadal will beat Djokovic on other surfaces. We can see how Nadal does @ Halle however, I expect Nadal to be @ the Wimbledon final and I hope he keeps it very close if he meets Djokovic. Only because as a Fed fan, I seen so many close matches with Fed vs Nadal @ the slams and it's nearly always Nadal who walks away with them, so Nadal needs a Wimbledon win more (Djokovic will still have the USO).

by jersey Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:24 pm

Djokovic.

by jersey Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:32 pm

CaledonianCraig wrote:Of those two I make Novak Djokovic the favourite. On any surface but clay he has the indian sign over Nadal of late winning all of the slam meetings barring RG over the last year or so.

Agree.

by break_in_the_fifth Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:33 pm

Nadal, Novak never really had an advantage over him.

by jersey Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:37 pm

Chydremion wrote:Nadal is a better grascourt player than Djokovic. This year Djokovic won't have the mental edge of 4 consecutive victories over Nadal if they play each other at Wimbledon.

Nope.

When all is said and done, Nole will have more Wimbledon titles than the Spanish claycourter.

When both are retired from the sport, Nadal will have 2 Wimbledon titles and Nole will have 4 Wimbledon titles.

by lags72 Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:40 pm

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Nadal, Novak never really had an advantage over him.

With you on the very first word, as far as being Wimbledon favourite goes.

But I'm perplexed by the rest of the sentence ..... Erm

by jersey Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:41 pm

Off clay, Nole is the superior player by far.

by lydian Fri Jun 15, 2012 3:50 pm

Djokovic has 5 off-clay slams...Nadal has 4.
Djokovic reached 7 off-clay slam finals...Nadal reached 9
Yeah, Djokovic is "far superior" to Nadal off-clay.

Are you NITB's younger brother or something?

by break_in_the_fifth Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:03 pm

lags72 wrote:
break_in_the_fifth wrote:Nadal, Novak never really had an advantage over him.

With you on the very first word, as far as being Wimbledon favourite goes.

But I'm perplexed by the rest of the sentence .....

I'd rather Novak win because he has a better game but Nadal's game has more room for error and for some reason Djokovic is not where he was before. Having said that where he before in 2011 was only temporary from what I could see, he played with better fitness and more intensity than I'd seen up to that point but its not like he had a tactical advantage over Rafa, he was just retrieving one more shot on average and perhaps doing better when going for winners.

by jersey Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:08 pm

lydian wrote:Djokovic has 5 off-clay slams...Nadal has 4.
Djokovic reached 7 off-clay slam finals...Nadal reached 9
Yeah, Djokovic is "far superior" to Nadal off-clay.

Are you NITB's younger brother or something?

Exactly.

Nole has won 5 of his 7 finals off clay.

Nadal has only won 4 of his 9 finals off clay.

In a slam final off clay, Nole wins most of the time, only losing at USO twice when he was younger... and eating gluten....

In a slam final off clay, Nadal loses more than he wins. 4 wins but 5 losses.

In a slam final off clay, Nole will beat Nadal.

We are not in 2010 anymore... Nole is not eating gluten now....

by User 774433 Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:11 pm

jersey wrote:
lydian wrote:

Are you NITB's younger brother or something?

Exactly.

by lags72 Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:22 pm

bitf : Well, fair points but I firmly believe there's more to it than that.

We know that at the very highest level tennis is so much about what goes on in the mind as well as with the racket.

Whether Novak's 2011 wins over Rafa were down to 'a tactical advantage' or not is up for debate I guess, but the fact is he managed it six times in a row and then took it into 2012 at the AO of course.

I think with that sort of run it's fair to say it was Novak who had the advantage.

I still feel this will turn out to be a better year for Rafa than it will for Novak ; but it's only a hunch, and I'm looking forward to seeing just how things pan out.

by socal1976 Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:17 pm

I think they are both equal favorites. Nadal had everything going for him in RG and he still barely won. He had the easier draw his favorite surface and a Novak Djokovic who couldn't buy a first serve for the first two sets and yet it was a tough final. And guess what we aren't playing on grass.

Here is something people will have to get used to, Novak Djokovic is one of the most improved volleyers on the tour. Those who think that this is the same player in terms of his feel in the forecourt as the one who played a few years ago haven't been watching closely. He is very, very comfortable up in the court either taking on the short ball, using his slice, drop shots or getting to the net.

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