Has unlucky (or rigged) draws impeded Djokovic's Grand Slam Count

First topic message reminder :

As the title tends to suggest, I am going to look the effect the draws had on Novak Djokovic, whether this alleged 'draw rigging' (or luck depending on which side of the argument you are on) had a real impact on his Slam Count.

As certain Djokovic fans have brought the validity of the semi-finals into question I am compelled to investigate the slams where Djokovic has reached the Semi-Final but did not win. I have questioned what would have happened if had the different SF draw each time (eg 2v3 sedding combo instead of 2vs4).

Slams:
Roland Garros 2007- Loss at SF to Rafael Nadal- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. Even if he had got past Fed in the SF he would not have beaten Nadal in the Final (he lost to him in the SF!)

Wimbledon 2007- Loss at SF to Rafael Nadal- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. He was doing well at 1-1 set all before he retired but if he had drawn Federer instead I don't think he had any chance of reaching the finals.
USO 2007- Loss at F to Roger Federer- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. He played Ferrer in the SF and won. If he had to face Federer in the SF he would not have reached the final of that tournament- considering he lost to him in the final anyway.
RG 2008- Loss at SF to Nadal- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. See the RG 2007 paragraph for more explanation
USO 2008- Loss at SF to Federer- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. He might have, like Murray, beaten Nadal in the semi but would not have beaten Federer in the final.
USO 2009- See above.
Wimby 2010- Loss to Berdych at SF- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. If he couldn't beat Berdych would he have stood a chance against Nadal?
US 2010- Loss to Nadal in F- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. Nadal was in great form in this tournament and beat Djoko in the Final.
FO 2011- Loss to Fed in SF- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? YES. Had he drawn Murray in the SF he could have gone on to win against Nadal in the final.
F0 2012- Loss to Nadal in the F- would he have won the tournament with a different SF draw? NO. He beat Federer in 3 sets so it didn't really affect his chances for the final negatively at all.

Does anyone notice a pattern? This is of course that when Djokovic lost in the semifinal to a specific player he would have gone on to face the same player in the final if the SF draw was different. This amplifies a point made by Julius and Nore Staat earlier that 'The winner of a tournament is a winner of a tournament. Who you draw in the SF rarely makes a huge difference.'

My point is that in all likelihood Djoko may have won max 1 more slam if he had the different SF combination each time. I think the majority will agree with me on this. And FYI I believe if we go through the majority of the top tennis players across the years we could deduce 1 slam more or less here and there if he/she had different draws.
Therefore this feeling of deep aggravation among certain Djokovic fans is misplaced and I certainly do not agree to the idea that he would have already gone on to become a double-digit Slam Champion like Nadal and Federer if he had different draws.

It Must Be Love

Yes end of the debate Nadal has had to do it once and failed to do so at the Australian. And since in all these years only 2 players have ever in all the slams beaten both Nadal and Fed it is a much bigger deal than you make it. In all these years only Del Po and Djoko to my knowledge have managed to beat both nadal and fed for a slam. And they have each managed the feat once.

I mean I keep waiting for the evidence of Nadal's analogous draw discrimination. You keep saying how this isn't that odd and you are sure other champions have faced a similar anomaly in the draw. I can't think of one similar situation. And if that is the case what tough draws has Nadal faced his tendency to get Murray or Ferrer that he is a combined 9-29 against?

Will somebody bury this dead horse?

bogbrush wrote:Will somebody bury this dead horse?

Oh yessssssssssssssss pleeeeeeeeeeeze :clap:

Haddie-nuff wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Will somebody bury this dead horse?

Oh yessssssssssssssss pleeeeeeeeeeeze

Give us a spade or the size of this horse a JCB.

socal1976 wrote:Barry that is irrelevant for Novak on the faster surfaces he would want to avoid federer and play Nadal on the hardcourts. AGAIN EVEN WHEN SEEDED #3. Do you think when seeded #3 that Novak would prefer Roger or Rafa at the hardcourt slams barry, well he got Roger everytime when Roger was still the dominant fast court player of his time. Therefore the same slightly different logic also applies to the period Djokovic was ranked #3 in the world. Djokovic during 2008,09,10 would have liked his chances during that period on a hardcourt against Nadal more so than fed. Also Fed would have preferred Djokovic over Murray at that time as well, which is the other part of the equation that people fail to realize.

No, what you are saying is irrelevant. The point is that with only one exception whatever side of the draw Djoko was on between W 2005 - Aus 2010 he could not have avoided Federer who was present in every final. The one exception is when Djoko beat Fed at the Aus Open 2008. After Aus 2010 Djoko has either avoided or beaten Federer, with the sole exception of RG 2011.

Therefore, only at RG 2011 has Djoko been beaten by Federer at a slam when he could have avoided Fed compeltely because the draw could have put Fed on the other side.

You witter on about the difference between Semi's and Finals but it's a nonsense. Djoko's career has hardly been held back because he has met Federer in a few Slam Semis, and here's the proof:

Since 2007 there have been 46 slams, Fed and Djoko have met in 10, i.e. less than a quarter.

We can immediately discount from your analysis both meetings in 2007 because (i) Djoko was only 14th Seed at the Aus Open and not part of the Triumvirate and (ii) at the US Open he was indeed in the other half of the draw from Fed but lost the final.

So, starting again from 2008 up to the present date there have been 42 slams, and Fed and Djoko have met in 8 SF's (i.e. a rate of < 1/5). Djoko has won on 5 of those occasions and has lost on only three of them - USO 2008-9, RG 2011.

So, there you have it - 3 slam semi-final losses to Fed in Djoko's entire career, just imagine what he might have achieved eh?

Aus O
R16 2007 - Fed wins
S 2008, 2011 - Djoko wins

RG
S 2011 - Fed wins
S 2012 - Djoko wins

W
never met

USO
F 2007 - Fed wins
S 2008-2009 - Fed wins
S 2010-2011 - Djoko wins

If you guys don't want to talk about it that is fine, others might have a different opinion and don't need their thread hijacked. Don't like the topic don't post. People mention the issue and some of their posts deserve my response.

Fair enough socal but please don't drag it onto every other topic that has nothing to do with this one ie Who Will Win Wimbledon, Wimbledon Day One etc.

Deal?

Only the FO of 2011 you say, why that would have made him a possible calendar year slam winner. One slam, why Novak should be happy to cede that over to what may be draw tampering. One slam and a couple of finals here and there. Barry, you make it sound like oh not a big deal at all. It actually is a huge deal. I can't personally think of another anomaly of this nature in my 35 years of watching tennis between top ranked players. People keep saying it isn't such an unusual occurrence and hasn't hurt his career but I don't remember seeing anything this blatant before at the very top levels of the game. Can't remember another past champion that was always disfavored in the semi draw over his nearest rival.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Fair enough socal but please don't drag it onto every other topic that has nothing to do with this one ie Who Will Win Wimbledon, Wimbledon Day One etc.

Deal?

Fine

Excellent post BarryStar

I think the point is that I don't see why facing Federer in the semi was so much harder than facing him in the semi when Djoko was younger. In-fact it is possible to argue that when you were a youngster like Djokovic was it is easier to face the big champion in a semi compared to a final. This is actually shown by USO 2007 and AO 2008. There were only a few months apart, yet in the Final Djoko lost in straights, and in the Semi of AO he won in straights.
SoCal keeps on repeating it was a statistical anomaly, or maybe it was rigged by NIKE/ITF/ Sepp Blatter that's not the point, it's what happened in reality which we have to analyse.

SoCal's main point is that Djokovic has had to face Nadal and Federer both in slams to win which is so much harder and has repeated it many times in capitals. This is the quote:

socal1976 wrote:FOR THE ONE THOUSANDTH TIME, IN AN ERA DOMINATED LIKE NO OTHER BY 3 PLAYERS, HAVING TO BEAT TWO OF THEM AS OPPOSED TO ONE TO WIN A SLAM IS A HUGE STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE.... Yes end of the debate Nadal has had to do it once

SoCal's main point. To be repeated until the end of the world. Let's actually have a look into this shall we?

Times Djokovic has had to face both Federer and Nadal in Slams: USO 2010, USO 2011 and FO 2011.
OK three times in seven years. Absolute tyranny.
So SoCal goes on to say 'Nadal has only had to do it once.'
Really?

Times Nadal has had to face both Federer and Djokovic in Slams:
2006 FO, 2007 FO, 2007 Wimby 2007, AO 2011. 4 Times in total.

Ouch.

IMBL in the last seven grandslams since Djokovic has attained a top two ranking Nadal has gotten the easier semi in 6 of those 7. And you believe that it doesn't make any impact, oh at best he lost a slam or a couple of finals appearances. If my favorite player had been the golden boy of the draw committees for the last few years maybe I would have the luxury of pretending it isn't a big deal. IN FACT THIS MAY BE THE GREATEST FAVORITISM AND DISCRIMINATION I HAVE EVER WITNESSED IN MY 35 YEARS OF TENNIS FAVORING ONE GREAT CHAMPION OVER THE OTHER FROM THE OUTSET WITH THE DRAWS. I can't think of a single other instance of such blatant favoritism and discrimination. And obviously you can't either because I have asked you to find an analagous situation and with all your powers of research you have been unable to.

One player has benefitted Rafa Nadal and one player has gotten
screwed and hard. I mean shockingly you can see where Novak fans have a real argument about RG of 2011 and yet you pretend that isn't a big deal. That would have been his 4th slam of the year.

Bottom line since attaining the top 2 even, Novak has draw the short straw 6 out of 7 slams with federer. I guess not a big deal for fan's of the draw tournament committee's "Golden Boy".

socal1976 wrote:If you guys don't want to talk about it that is fine, others might have a different opinion and don't need their thread hijacked. Don't like the topic don't post. People mention the issue and some of their posts deserve my response.

I wasn't demanding it not be discussed, I was mocking it.

Oh dear Socal
Cmon for weeks you have been repeating 'FOR THE ONE THOUSANDTH TIME, IN AN ERA DOMINATED LIKE NO OTHER BY 3 PLAYERS, HAVING TO BEAT TWO OF THEM AS OPPOSED TO ONE TO WIN A SLAM IS A HUGE STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE' (in capital letters). After showing you that Nadal has had to play 2 out of the current top 3 MORE than Djokovic has, surely you should apologise. You also claimed Nadal has only had to do it once, rather than 4 times. I think this calls for another apology.

Anyway now you are claiming in capital letters 'favouritism' blah blah blah.
I even made a point in the Wimby thread which you did not respond to showing why Nadal's SF draw at this year's Wimby did not really impact his chances of winning.
This was it:
Nadal's SF draw doesn't really impact if he wins the tournament. In the last 4 slams he has had to face Djokovic in the finals, and will probably have to do so if he reached the finals in the next slams too. If he can't beat his semi-final opponent, either Federer or Murray, then he can't beat Djokovic. If he is playing well enough to beat Djokovic and win the slam he should be able to beat Fed or Murray in the semis. Simple.

Also funny you try to hide the fact that Murray has a better Slam H2H than Federer vs Nadal by giving a 'combined H2H' with him and Ferrer ensuring it is a really one sided number. Ferrer has only played Nadal once in a Slam Semi

And it is all well and good you keep on trying to claim that Murray is so much easier for Nadal than Federer in slams, as you have repeated in capitals many times, but let's look at the stats again.
Slams H2H:
Nadal 8-2 Federer
Nadal 6-2 Murray
Since 2008 Slam H2H:
Nadal 5-0 Federer
Nadal 5-2 Murray

Despite of these facts Federer still has a certain aura about him so I'd say that these 2 were of similar difficulty for Nadal. Although the stats do not agree and say that Murray is tougher in Slams atm (this could be due to matchup with Murray having a DHBH, fitness, Federer getting older). But don't let that bother you, just post another vague /inaccurate statement in capital letters about a worldwide conspiracy.
Remember these stats have just shown us that Nadal has struggled more vs Murray in Slams altogether, and especially in the last 4 years. I could say 'OMG This statistical anomaly is conspired against Nadal!, but I don't, do I. I recognise that both represent similar challenged despite the (Murray-favouring) stats and anyway if Nadal can't get past either of these 2 he has no chance against Djokovic anyway so doesn't make a big difference to his chances.

You mean that one win that murray had out of two where Nadal was playing on one leg? IMBL, you keep refusing to address the fact that Novak would also prefer to avoid Roger at wimby and at RG in particular. You focus on Nadal and claim that Nadal fears Andy and Ferrer more which I find to be a little bit illogical considering his career 9-29 record against his foes. 10 wins vs. 18 losses for Federer is still significantly more dangerous than either of those two. Plus, there is the flip side of the coin that you will not address. Novak would prefer to avoid Roger and by having his closest rival got the tough semi draw everytime this indirectly also benefits Nadal. Like we saw in the French open 2011.


And again, you claim it isn't a big deal now and that it all equals about. No it doesn't at the OUTSET Nadal has gotten the better semi draw now in 6 out of the last 7 slams. This has impacted Djokovic by your own posts quite probably in the 2011 RG and has caused Novak to lose in the semis as opposed to the finals on some occassions. This is what you yourself agree to and you think it is not a big deal. Now you are trying to sell us the fiction that the DRAW GOLDEN BOY has actually had tougher semi draws than Novak. Bottom line Nadal keeps getting the more cupcake semi over and over again and if you write 2 encyclopedias of abstract logic and manipulated statistics it won't change that fact.

It Must Be Love wrote:
Also funny you try to hide the fact that Murray has a better Slam H2H than Federer vs Nadal by giving a 'combined H2H' with him and Ferrer ensuring it is a really one sided number. Ferrer has only played Nadal once in a Slam Semi

Followed by 30 minutes later...

socal1976 wrote:You focus on Nadal and claim that Nadal fears Andy and Ferrer more which I find to be a little bit illogical considering his career 9-29 record against his foes.

socal1976 wrote:
Bottom line Nadal keeps getting the more cupcake semi over and over again and if you write 2 encyclopedias of abstract logic and manipulated statistics it won't change that fact.

If these stats are manipulated or wrong or abstract give me a call:

Slams H2H:
Nadal 8-2 Federer= 80%
Nadal 6-2 Murray= 75%
Since 2008 Slam H2H:
Nadal 5-0 Federer= 100%
Nadal 5-2 Murray= 71%

Reasons why I think Murray and Federer are similar propositions for Nadal in Slams (although Federer is a superior player):
-Better Slam Record vs Federer
-Much Better Slam Record in the last 4 years vs Federer
-Federer is getting older which means he is not as good as when at prime.
-Federer is now not as fit, which is crucial in Slams, which is a B05
-Murray has a DHBH which negates Nadal's topspin forehand better
(btw Nadal was 2 sets to love down vs Murray in AO2010- that's what he confirmed in the interview).