Fed finally makes his first Wimbledon semi since 2009: Djoko vs Fed

Fed finally made the semi-final of Wimbledon (first since 2009) -as many of us expected after the draw was released but which has had a few hiccups on the way.

The score line for Fed's match of 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 is a pretty emphatic straight sets victory whereas Novak's 6-4, 6-1, 6-4 isn't as comfortable but again a straight sets victory. Now we get the ultimate match and in many respects the block buster line up of the tournament. The question is can the line up live up the billing of a great match? A poll might have been useful but after the French Open, I think many of us expect Djokovic to win, however Fed showed us today that he may not roll over as easily as was expected after below par performances in R3 & R4.

Who looks likely to win? I've said Djokovic to win Wimbledon from the beginning and also said he'd beat Federer along the way, although I can see a plausible scenario of Fed winning. My main concern is if he can execute such a strategy. A good first serve percentage is crucial and building an early lead as well as taking 2 sets to tie breakers. Difficult against an excellent returner like Djokovic but doable. It's difficult to ascertain how the match goes given Fed played so well today. Can he push Djokovic and beat him or are we looking at a routine Djokovic win in 3 or 4 sets? I'm hoping for an epic clash after both of them had such easy straight sets victories but with these two it's difficult to read.

Much is on the line for Fed: an 8th Wimbledon final and possibly a 17th slam and the No.1 if he wins the the title. Djokovic also has much on the line, his No.1 spot and the possibility to become the first guy since Federer to successfully defend his Wimbledon title. He'd also have a 5 finals in a row. Good going for Djokovic and would suggest he's still as big a threat as last year. There is one thing for sure: Friday's match will be tense and will disappoint someone!

Have to make Djoko the favourite, but Fed may well enjoy his underdog status. Still not sure Djoko is hitting it as well as last year, although the legs and the desire are still there.
Everyone was hoping for this meeting - their first on grass - that it seemd something would crop up to prevent the match. But they've made it through.
For Fed fans there is already a bit of a gap appearing points-wise between their man at number two and Rafa at number three.
For me, Djoko in three sets or four.

Djokovic probably wins this 2 out of 3.

Here's hoping this is the odd one!

Djok wasnt as impressive as Fed was that last round.... that is for sure.

Who turned up Today?

Was it the 6 time champ or did the colonel not turn up today inspite of being paid? Had to miss the match since it was too early here and had to leave for the job.

TMF turned up, but even he admitted after the match that the Colonels game matches up very nicely for him.

Federer could have done no more.

bogbrush wrote:TMF turned up, but even he admitted after the match that the Colonels game matches up very nicely for him.

Federer could have done no more.

Atleast its nice to know Fed is playing is A-game, so atleast we could have a game in semi's rather than a walkover.

Well Youzhny is like a very poor man's fed game wise and this was going to be massacre as long as fed is healthy. Djoko looks good as well so we see now that two players are in good form and reasonably good health. If Roger serves really well and I mean really well he can win. Otherwise I see Djoko winning in 3 or 4 sets. However, Novak has an annoying habit this tournament and throughout his career of simply gifting a break or two to his opponent with sheer loss focus and goofy decision making that sneaks into his game. He can't do that against Roger on grass. If he does he will turn this thing into a deathmatch, if he plays clean behind his serve and serves well then he wins pretty routinely.

Its great to have Federer back in the semis. Its hard to believe its been 3 years since his last appearance.

He played okay today but I really do not think he is at his A game level. He shanked quite a few backhand returns which were makable. Djokovic has taken a lead out of Nadal's tactics v Fed. Keep going to the b/h until it breaks down. That is how I think he has had so much success recently. Playing Djoko is like playing a wall . The ball will keep coming back. Fed gets impatient and goes for the high risk winner which always results in an error.

To avoid this he needs to have that serve firing. The more free points and prevention of Djoko returning the better. Fed can hope Djoko has a bad day at the office on Friday. Let's face it, Djoko is playing superbly well and has lost just one set so far. He does not look as if he is any danger of losing.

Fed's got a lot on the line here. How many more chances will he have to reach a Wimbledon final and have to play just one of the top 2 guys? For once in 3 years Nadal will not be waiting in the final. That surely is an incentive? Also, another slam to put some distance between him and Nadal and reclaim the No 1 ranking. A lot of pressure on him this time.

Good post fed's fan. It will be all on Roger's serve for this match. Roger drops his first serve percentage and he will be in trouble. However that is basically a universal truth for any player in any big match. But for Roger he is going to win or lose it with his serve.

socal1976 wrote:Good post fed's fan. It will be all on Roger's serve for this match. Roger drops his first serve percentage and he will be in trouble. However that is basically a universal truth for any player in any big match. But for Roger he is going to win or lose it with his serve.

I agree. His last 2 matches against Djoko have been lost on serve. The serve % dropped in those matches a lot. I have also noticed that in tie breaks as of late he has been fairing really badly. In days gone by Fed was the master at tie breaks. Is it pressure that affects his serve in a tie break? Lets hope the serve is working otherwise it will be a scoreline like at the FO with a poor serve %, stacks of unforced errors and loads of break point chances gone begging.

Serve is crucial as you say Fedsfan & SoCal.

Where I disagree with you Fedsfan is Fed's record in slam tie breakers is very good with Djoko. Last year it was 3-1 in slam tie breakers (to Fed). Overall in the slam matches they played, they've had 8 tie breakers which split 6-2 to Fed. Both the tie breakers Djokovic have won were @ the Aussie Open, everywhere else he has lost them. Tie breakers are Fed's main hope on Friday in my view so I think you need to look at the actual record Fedsfan rather than alleging its bad when it's not!

Well his serve will get a lot more help on this surface but also Novak's will as well so it is a bit of double edged sword. I think against Djokovic, I have noticed that Roger will give up more doubles and his first serve percentage will drop when compared to how Roger usually does against other players. I think the reason for that is that Novak applies a great deal of cumulative pressure on the servers service games. And even if you are holding you have to fight to instinctively he makes you go a little harder, a little flatter, a little closer to the line. Look at how Roger finished serving against Malisse. Malisse is not a good returner and hits out a lot of normal returns so Roger just dialled back the mileage and went for 1st serve percentage. If Roger tries that strategy of safe almost passive first serving against Djoko I think Novak will break him on multiple occassions. Therefore Roger is caught in a Catch 22 because of the strength of Djoko's return. If he dials it down and goes for percentage Djokovic will crush even a first serve of lesser quality almost like a second serve. If he goes extra aggressive and goes for aces he risks dropping his first serve percentage and giving Novak looks at his second. And despite how good Rog's second serve is Novak is the best in the world at abusing that delivery.

Djoker hasnt been tested yet that doesnt bode well for him against Federer.

(Federer has never lost in a Wimbledon semi)

luciusmann wrote:Serve is crucial as you say Fedsfan & SoCal.

Where I disagree with you Fedsfan is Fed's record in slam tie breakers is very good with Djoko. Last year it was 3-1 in slam tie breakers (to Fed). Overall in the slam matches they played, they've had 8 tie breakers which split 6-2 to Fed. Both the tie breakers Djokovic have won were @ the Aussie Open, everywhere else he has lost them. Tie breakers are Fed's main hope on Friday in my view so I think you need to look at the actual record Fedsfan rather than alleging its bad when it's not!

Luciusmann,

I said 'As of late'. I was not looking at a h2h v Djokovic. I just have noticed Federer is not as great with tie breaks recently. I think Fed's main hope is to sneak a few points here and there on Djoko's serve in normal play. I have no faith in Fed's serve these days.

I agree about the importance of Roger's serve and I also think the first set is crucial.

If it goes Novak's way, I can't see Roger winning three of the remaining four.

If it goes Roger's way, then, with his ability as a front runner and the increased pressure on Novak, we could be on for a bit of a barnstormer!

FedsFan wrote:Luciusmann,

I said 'As of late'. I was not looking at a h2h v Djokovic. I just have noticed Federer is not as great with tie breaks recently. I think Fed's main hope is to sneak a few points here and there on Djoko's serve in normal play. I have no faith in Fed's serve these days.

I wasn't looking @ the H2H. I was looking at all the tie breakers they played in their grand slam matches which is 8. I didn't want us to focus just on the historical record because I thought that might skew things in Fed's favour but again of the 4 slam tie breakers they played last year (which is very recently) Fed won 3, Djokovic 1. If you mean 'as of late' as referring to their sole tie breaker in the Rome match, that's equally silly because that's the only tie breaker they've had this year and also it isn't like for like. It's also misleading to look at tie breakers with all players.

A grand slam tie breaker in a semi certainly has more pressure than one in a master 1000 tournament. So it's surprising that even with the mounted pressure, Fed still won more of them vs Djoko last year and overall in his career (last year followed the overall pattern). What you noticed, isn't a good recollection I'm afraid to say! Even in the USO, he lost the match but in the match's only tie breaker, Fed won it. I see Fed's main hope in tie breakers because frankly, Fed plays them better in matches with Djokovic than Djokovic does. I agree with you that Fed's serve is suspect and could allow sets to slip without even tie breakers needed, that's the danger. He can't allow this, if he does, Djokovic wins.

I agree the first set is important HM Murdoch, but more for Federer than for Djokovic. Maybe age is a factor but you feel Djokovic could lose the first set and still win whereas Fed is almost certain to lose if the first set slips by. Many examples include winning the first set against Nadal @ the Aussie Open, winning the first two sets (not just the first) against both Djokovic and Tsonga @ the USO & Wimbledon last year and still losing the matches! A two sets lead to love isn't even enough for Fed these days, yes I know it's grass and yes I know he's won it 6 times however just remember those two matches....the first two sets just isn't enough against top players!

Pretty sure Fed has never beaten Djoko after losing the first set, whereas Djoko has come back to win from a set down (2 sets down, in fact).

JuliusHMarx wrote:Pretty sure Fed has never beaten Djoko after losing the first set, whereas Djoko has come back to win from a set down (2 sets down, in fact).

However this time Federer knows if he wins the semi there is no Nadal next.

Win this and Happy 17th!

Josiah Maiestas wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:Pretty sure Fed has never beaten Djoko after losing the first set, whereas Djoko has come back to win from a set down (2 sets down, in fact).

However this time Federer knows if he wins the semi there is no Nadal next.

Win this and Happy 17th!

That sums up Fed's challenge pretty well Julius. Fed isn't a lock down even if he's ahead two sets.

What's talked about a lot is Fed's opportunity of clinching the No.1 spot if he beats Djokovic and then wins Wimbledon but it's also critical points wise. If Djokovic beats Fed and goes onto win Wimbledon, he opens up a 2, 485 lead. It's a big lead and it's difficult to see Fed chipping @ it significantly enough to overtake Djokovic before the USO. He could do it but it would require a few slip ups. Even if Murray beat Djokovic in the final, the lead would be 1, 685, a significant lead but one he could overturn (but not easily). Fed beating Djokovic and winning Wimbledon would give him a good shot @ the Olympics and solidify his lead given Nadal's resurfaced knee problem.

You do wonder JM if it will help Fed. When he heard Nadal was out @ the French 2009, the next day he immediately had a tough 5 setter, he then cruised the quarters and then when when so close to the final, was pushed in another 5 setter by Delpo. So Nadal not being there could affect Fed and push him to go for the win, because he was 2 sets to 1 down @ the French '09 semi and rallied to win. Hard to call, if Fed really senses a chance, he won't do it the easy way and he might give us a nail biting 5 set epic but I won't care as long as he wins....I just remain to be convinced of whether he can still do it.

bogbrush wrote:Djokovic probably wins this 2 out of 3.

Here's hoping this is the odd one!

What he said.

Might be stating the obvious here but listed are the keys to the match for Fed:
1. Has to win at least 2 of the first 3 sets
2. 1st serve win percentage has to be high
3. Backhand must hold up in the face of inevitable bombardment
4. Will probably have to win any tiebreaks
5. Break point conversion rate has to improve

theslosty wrote:Might be stating the obvious here but listed are the keys to the match for Fed:
1. Has to win at least 2 of the first 3 sets
2. 1st serve win percentage has to be high
3. Backhand must hold up in the face of inevitable bombardment
4. Will probably have to win any tiebreaks
5. Break point conversion rate has to improve

On 2: How high a 1st serve are we talking about?

On 5: Unsure about the break point conversion rate, if it's similar to Djokovic then he'll be okay I think....

2. He needs a lot of cheap points obviously, so probably at least 80%.
5. So often Federer may lose these matches ruing the chances he had, particularly against Nadal. It may be Djokovic this time but he probably won't get as many chances as Novak will so being clinical is the key.

Just peeked at the bookies, Novak 4/9 and Roger 9/4....
Still think if Roger plays well he has a very good chance as long as he can produce in 3 sets, and maybe just for one more point than a couple of other encounters

Roger is certainly a huge challenge especially if the serve is in the high 60s or better. The problem he will face is that he will at times have to go for it more against Djokovic on serve and that may cause his serve percentage to drop. It looks to be a classic as both players are in good form.

socal1976 wrote:Roger is certainly a huge challenge especially if the serve is in the high 60s or better. The problem he will face is that he will at times have to go for it more against Djokovic on serve and that may cause his serve percentage to drop. It looks to be a classic as both players are in good form.

High 60s is way too ambitious for Fed to get SoCal. That's if you're referring to 1st serve in. If he can get it in the low sixties or keep it within a few percentage points of Djokovic, that will help him a lot. Fed has never had his 1st serve % in up in the high 60s lately, don't think that was even true in his latest matches @ Wimbledon or against Djokovic. I agree Fed would prove very hot to handle if it was in the high sixties but I don't think it's likely.

Agree with you about the potential of it being a great match but I am seriously unsure if it will. There's a good chance this match could like the one @ the USO last year rather than RG this year and Fed has said he is playing better and has not struggled as much as he did @ RG. However, from RG and through Wimbledon Fed has struggled whereas prior to that (post Aussie open to Rome) Fed had a very good run which encompassed 4 titles, 2 of which were were Masters 1000 tournaments. Clearly Fed has had the form to beat Djokovic, but I worry about whether it will surface in time for Friday. It might or it might not, we really don't know (at least I don't and I think that's the same for most Fed fans).

Theslosty: I'm not sure Fed has ever had a high 1st percentage win rate @ 80% against Djokovic. He may have but not in recent times. I think if he can keep his first serve in a lot more then he will leave himself less exposed to Djokovic breaking his serve so something in the sixties (of serve in) is more important.

The massive thing is that Federer needs to protect his own serve; the chances to break will come - Djokovic has given up breaks and bps willy nilly this event and I see no reason why that won't carry on.

The challenge is that Djokovic is easily the best returner right now and it's not a case of serving aces past him, because that won't happen enough to win the match. The key will be the 2nd and 3rd shots - Federer needs to get solid, attacking strikes in early without overdoing it and sending the ue count through the roof.

I think the slice will be important too.

Of course the great relief is that the bounce won't be huge, so even on the backhand he should have plenty of play in his hitting zone.

bogbrush wrote:The massive thing is that Federer needs to protect his own serve; the chances to break will come - Djokovic has given up breaks and bps willy nilly this event and I see no reason why that won't carry on.

The challenge is that Djokovic is easily the best returner right now and it's not a case of serving aces past him, because that won't happen enough to win the match. The key will be the 2nd and 3rd shots - Federer needs to get solid, attacking strikes in early without overdoing it and sending the ue count through the roof.

I think the slice will be important too.

Of course the great relief is that the bounce won't be huge, so even on the backhand he should have plenty of play in his hitting zone.

Agree with most of what you're saying there BB. It's not necessarily the case that Fed needs to convert that many of those BPs because creating so many will lead to a massive amount of pressure on Djokovic and he may crumble. It's exactly what happened @ the French Open last year, it was a BP galore fest on Djokovic's serve, something like 25 (I think) yet Fed didn't convert any more than Djokovic. The crucial difference is the massive pressure it created for Djokovic in the tie breakers and he ended up losing both which is indicative of the strategy I feel Fed needs to employ. As you say, he protects his own serve and thereby piles the pressure on Djokovic's serve whether he takes the set cleanly or not isn't important, a tie breaker works in Fed's favour I'd say.

Short angled slice to the backhand followed by a flat fed forehand to the forehand of Djokovic. Fed needs to keep this from being a contest of lengthy rallies from the baseline. I don't believe he can beat Djokovic in that manner unless Novak is really misfiring from the baseline. Quick points for Roger and look for opportunities to move in and also to draw Novak up with drops and short slice on your terms. Now volleying against Djokovic is easier said then done he dropped some ridiculous passes on Mayer today it took him completely out of his plan to press Djokovic from net. Two of the best passes he hit mayer made circus Boris Becker stab diving volleys on and won the point. But many more were zipping past him.

Agree with the point about the rallies SoCal, protracted rallies favour Djokovic. Definitely the drop shot will be a useful shot to stop Djokovic from settling into a rhythm on the baseline which is what he'll want to do, dictate the match on the base-line.

My only hope is we actually get some semblance of a competitive match and not a one sided affair for Djokovic like @ RG. There is reason to suppose it might be, after all, the main difference @ RG was that Djokovic matched each of Fed's break but made just a single extra break in each of the 3 sets. Fed protecting his serve better would lead to inevitable tie breakers and there's the opportunity I feel Fed can use to break Djokovic down. Fed usually needs a tie breaker or two to beat Djokovic in a slam match recently and I think he'll need a couple tomorrow.

I think we all know their games pretty well, about the only thing we don't know if how they play out on this grass. In fact we don't even know what this grass is like after 10 days of pounding - it looks naked right at the baseline but that doesn't matter much as the ball rarely bounces there anyway.

I really dunno; could go any way. So long as both players are fully fit and play a good match I can take any outcome, though obviously prefer Federer. I only get wound up badly if something happens like a bad back or whatever, but hopefully it is where it was in the quarter, that's good enough.

I see what you're saying BB, I'm just weary after Rome & RG: I was expecting two good matches and I ended up disappointed. Hence my approach to this match is going to be of low expectations. Naturally it will a tense match (even for me) but expecting a mundane match is safer because then I can't be disappointed with the match if it doesn't live upto expectations. Unless Fed is really upto to the level he was once was at the slams (upto the Aussie Open 2010), I can't see any victory for Fed being easy. I can see an easy Djokovic win though but that speaks volumes about my confidence in Fed lately!

I'd give the odds at around:
Djoko 1.15
Fed 5

Sky Bet gives
Djoko 1.4
Federer 3

There is a new dimension to this match that has not really featured in any of their previous matches, or at least not been a major factor before... The Federer slice.

I really hope Federer doesn't just try and out hit him, because whilst Fed is the best attacker the game has ever seen Novak enjoys the pace and is more consistent nowadays. Because they've never played on grass before, it means that Novak has never played against such a cutting low slice before.

I think that could really work in Roger's favour. I hope he uses it a lot, as it forces his opponent to be more conservative to get it back, which could open the court up for Roger. His slice and how well Federer serves could define the match for me. If he does both well, it could be a classic.

The slice of fed's is going to be a key Danny. It is an important shot especially short in the court to a two hander to draw him up to net on your terms and pass him or make him hit tough volleys. But it was a more effective strategy against Djoko of 2009 and 2008. Novak is much better at net and can hit that short slice and come in behind it. Plus that is the book on Novak to feed him a lot of slice, so i doubt that he has never, ever seen slice like federer's slice on grass. Players try to use that slice to pull him up into the court short and wide and have been doing that to him for some time. Now he has gotten adept at either hitting the dropper, or using his own one hander to neutralize the tactic. Still yes, Fed does need to use the slice short to Novak's backhand. I just don't think it will be as fruitful as it has been in the past against Nole.