Super Rugby Penultimate weekend before playoffs

by FerN Fri 06 Jul 2012, 9:12 am

The Chiefs Crusaders game already started and there is now thread on here. Big game this. Crusaders must win to be able to have a chance to reach the semi's. Chiefs will want to win this to stay on top of the over all rankings.

The Reds Highlanders game also has two teams in it with a chance. Highlanders only mathematical though, but it might still happen.

Both the Sharks and Bulls need to win this game, the Sharks more than the Bulls however.

The Blues Force game is more about pride than anything else, but I think it will be a good game.

The Waratahs home will be a difficult opponent for the Brumbies.

Cheetahs host the Stormers, with the Stormers needing to win to top the conference if the Chiefs slip up.

Lions will want to at least get a win against the Rebels after there whole coaching debacle. Rebels would also want a win on the Highveld.

My Predictions:
Crusaders by 5
Highlanders by 3
Sharks by 3
Blues by 14 - just got a feeling
Waratahs by 1
Stormers by 3
Lions by 7 (Probably because I feel sorry for them)

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 9:26 am

I predicted on sportsguru:

Chiefs by 6
Reds by 6
Bulls by 6
Blues by 12
Waratahs by 6
Stormers by 6
Lions by 12

by FerN Fri 06 Jul 2012, 10:37 am

First game done and dusted. Crusaders by 7.

Hmm, Stormers need a bonus point win to top the log now. I just can't see that happen though.

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 10:50 am

I agree Fern, Stormers are looking more like they are losing form than hitting their straps.

by Brendan Fri 06 Jul 2012, 11:04 am

What do you think the last week's games will go. Who is the no game 4pt winner of the last round. Assume its the Cheifs.

as it stands most likely the semi would be Stormers v Brummies/? and Cheifs v Bulls/?

You would have to feel the Bulls or Saders would feel they can win away to the chiefs.so finishing second might be better for getting to the final

What do ye think

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 11:10 am

I think the last six will look like this

Stormers
Chiefs
Brumbies
Bulls
Crusaders
Reds

So quarter finals

Brumbies vs Reds
Bulls vs Crusaders

Semis

Stormers vs Reds
Chiefs vs Bulls.

Final haven't got a clue

by Brendan Fri 06 Jul 2012, 1:32 pm

See I think that if the chiefs get the Bulls, Saders or Reds I think that they could lose as the three teams are less fazed by home or away tags. Also the pressure will be on Chiefs to win.

Brumbies I think would find any away game hard. Could we see an all SA final.

Biltong what is your take on the 6 teams that are going for five SA. What would you do and what do you think will happen. Read that they might try get them into Europe or a competion with Argie and Japanese teams.

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 1:40 pm

Well for now it is just a mess Brendan

The reality is there is no way SA can have six teams until the next negotiations in 2014

Even if they consider moving teams into another comp, they need time to become part of contract negotiations, and nothing has leaked so far.

by fa0019 Fri 06 Jul 2012, 1:53 pm

Good news for us in terms of todays result. Not sure if we can get a bonus point. Cheetahs are a decent outfit.

May be worth throwing the kitchen sink at them though.

A home final is so important... I think only the crusaders have ever won the title away from home????

In terms of 6 sides.... won't work until contracts up. Even so, the talent is probably not there to make 6 sides competitive.... only if SA managed to convince many of those in Europe to return would they be able to field 6 decent sides... that or water down the current five which reduces chances of individual competitiveness against AUS & NZ franchises.

I bet the Cats will be re-established.

by Brendan Fri 06 Jul 2012, 1:57 pm

It is a mess, you can see why they want 6 teams with the number of fans coming to each game and lets be honest PE will get out a simmilar size match day attendance. Also add in that there are too many players leaving SA for europe my country taking its fair share.

Are the SARU just making moves so they can say "look how we our six teams have done lets add the 6th and make if a nice even 16 teams. think of all the money"

Do you know if Southern kings will keep their players or will it like american football, move the franchise but overall it is the same players just a different name and city

by fa0019 Fri 06 Jul 2012, 1:59 pm

They better bring in some players soon... if they want to be competitive.

At the moment the kings first Xv would be beaten by the Lions 50-0.

Thats no exaggeration.

by Brendan Fri 06 Jul 2012, 1:59 pm

Add least if there are 6 teams (after 2014) and the same conference system you can have a more even palying field with two week teams you might get 3 through to the quarters. drumroll

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:42 pm

Brendan wrote:Add least if there are 6 teams (after 2014) and the same conference system you can have a more even palying field with two week teams you might get 3 through to the quarters.

The Cheetahs aren't exactly strong mate.

by fa0019 Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:45 pm

Only because they lose a lot of players to more glamourous clubs... the FS is the heartbeat of the boks.

I myself would love Piet van Zyl to come to Cape Town. I see him as a very good future prospect.

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:46 pm

Yes, the Cheetahs do have a tough challenge retaining players

by fa0019 Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:48 pm

Perhaps if we merge the Cats together again we can see a real strong side which would challenge for the title. That would certainly bring the crowds back to both Bloem & Ellis Park.

The pack would be awesome... imagine a backrow of Smith, Brussow and Strauss!!!!

I would certainly worry about the Cats next season if they retained the best 30 odd players from both squads.

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:50 pm

From reports I read that is never going to be considered.

Besides when they were the Cats there were far too much politics.

I would like to se it happen though.

by fa0019 Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:53 pm

Shame... can't see what will happen then other than 30 lions players getting released from their contracts.

There will be some easy pickings for any club looking for some talented young players.

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 4:57 pm

I don't think the Lions Franchise will be dissolved though, they might do te same as the King s did, play in the nations cup next year

by **Biltong** Fri 06 Jul 2012, 5:01 pm

From Supersport

05 July 2012, 16:58

Lions acting chief executive Ruben Moggee has called for a speedy resolution to the uncertainty over South Africa's participation in next year's Super Rugby competition.

Moggee said on Thursday the Golden Lions Rugby Union (GLRU) had weighed up other options in case they were relegated from Super Rugby.

"We want to make sure that going forward – whatever the type of decision is – we also find a bit of an entrenchment similar to what the Kings would want to have," said Moggee.

"That you don't have a situation where you are in one year and out the next year."

His comments come a week before the SA Rugby Union's (Saru) general council meeting on July 13 in Cape Town where a final decision would be made on who the five SA franchises for the 2013 season should be.

The Southern Kings have been guaranteed a spot in the 2013 season's SA conference, while the participation of the other four teams still had to be decided.

Moggee said it would be short-sighted to make a decision based on only one season and Saru needed to plan further into the future.

"We need to be mindful of 2014 and 2015 and not only look at 2013," he said.

"It puts South African rugby in a difficult position because most franchises like us go and contract players for two to three years and make those type of plans."

With the cloud of uncertainty hanging over the union, Moggee said they would continue with their planning for next year, irrespective of what the decision in the Saru boardroom might be.

"It is an untenable situation from the timing perspective where we find ourselves in mid-July and the decision is not clear yet," Moggee said.

"We are continuing to contract and recruit players for next year and looking at our juniors.

"We've not given up so looking at where we want to be, we want to have a competitive squad should we play or should we not play."

He said the bulk of their players had been contracted until next year while their key sponsors remained behind the Lions.

"They (sponsors) have voiced their concerns but what is encouraging for us is that we have met with all of our main sponsors and they are all on board for next year irrespective of what happens to the Lions," he said.

The current proposal on the table is that the last-placed team in the SA conference would play a promotion/relegation match against the non-Super Rugby franchise after the 2013 and 2014 seasons.

"The challenge in South Africa is that you don't have that fallback tournament here," Moggee said.

"You can decide to go and play in the Heineken Cup for example as a South African team but it will take you three years as you walk through the two championships before that to proceed."

Moggee said there were possibilities of creating an alternative competition for the team that was relegated.

"There isn't a fallback tournament at present so you'll have to create something," he said.

"There is an opportunity, I believe, with the South American and Japanese teams where you'll have to put something together there."

He believed that if Super Rugby were to expand many of the teams would come from South America.

"So if you start to go that route in the next year to put something together there might be the alternative," said Moggee.

"But there isn't an alternative tournament to slot in for six to seven months as we presently stand."

by doctor_grey Sat 07 Jul 2012, 3:37 am

I watched the Sharks-Bulls match Friday and have a few thoughts I wanted to bounce off our more knowledgeable South African friends.

For the Sharks, I thought Bismarck du Plessis, Ryan Kankowski and Freddy Michalak were very good. In general, how are Kankowski and Michalak regarded? Du Plessis, of course, has a terrific rep, but in the past I have seen him on fire like today, but also fairly pedestrian. Is this his best season? Is Freddy going to stick around for another season or is he going home? I always thought he was better at 10 than 9.

But more interested in the Bulls at the moment. They sometimes appear to have the horses to beat anything or anyone in their way. Against The Sharks, they appeared to make a lot of basic mistakes, from handling errors to bad kicks. Morne Steyn was poor across the board and Francois Hougaard had a lot of energy but appeared to have checked out mentally. To have the halfbacks misfiring makes it almost impossible to win. I was wondering if having Steyn play flat makes things worse as he seems to play deeper when I have seen him for Bulls and Boks.

Is Bosman the regular backup for Steyn at Bulls? Who are the other Bok 10s who can step in right now and do the job? Grant and Lambie?

by **Biltong** Sat 07 Jul 2012, 5:13 am

Hi doc, Bulls struggle against team that match their forward power, Hougaard should play wing, he isn't a great halfback, it encumbers his free spirit and it seems he doesn't know how to handle the more "structured" type play.

by FerN Sat 07 Jul 2012, 6:00 am

Doc in my opinion, all the other franchises best flyhalf's are better than Morne at S15 level, but you never know if they can make the step up. Morne can.

by Taylorman Sat 07 Jul 2012, 6:23 am

Behind a different pack I think the 4N will confirm that one. Personally I think he'll be found lacking and will be targetted. With Meyer sold on Mornes abilities this far out from the tournament start plans will already be buuzzing around the oz and AB camps.

In essence disrupt steyn and the rest will follow.

by doctor_grey Sat 07 Jul 2012, 8:13 am

Morning/evening gents.
Not for nothing, it has been blood boiling hot back here in New Jersey. Could top 100°F/38°C today!

Agree about Hougaard. He wasn't too impressive against England and seemed very unsure and tentative against the Sharks. Hougaard started on the wing, didn't he? At least that's what I recall in Super Rugby. Or was he a halfback played out wide to take advantage of his speed and running ability when Du Preez played at 9?

Steyn is a different kettle of fish. Seems to be regressing. Playing in a kind of robotic manner. Not as good in pressure filled matches as earlier. And against an aggressive defense, also appears unsure. I thought his defensive play, never great but not bad either, is becoming poor. I would certainly target to pressure him directly, and Hougaard, too.

But, as said, Steyn made the step up to full internationals extremely well. It will be interesting to see how Lambie progresses and young Johan Goosen, too, when he recovers from injury.

I enjoyed how the Sharks played yesterday. I hope they make the cut and are in the top 6 after next weekend. Will be interesting to see how they go.

by Taylorman Sat 07 Jul 2012, 8:54 am

Hi ya doc. Steyn is able to step up but he hasnt had a good match against the ABs for a long time. This is something meyer will need to address as hes central to the bok gameplan. If he ignores this and hopes things will be alright on the day then that would be disappointing.

by doctor_grey Sat 07 Jul 2012, 9:11 am

Taylor,
I agree. Steyn is so important to the Meyer's Boks, that if he is underperforming, he will take the team with him. I suppose with a Francois Steyn playing, the kicking duties could be covered. But, is there an out half who coul step in now?

But I struggle to see how Meyer will take the pressure off Steyn in the normal course of a game. If the ABs, Wallabies and Pumas target him directly, hw would need to get the ball off sooner leading to more mistakes. He seems man who is almost at that break point where some time off would be helpful.

by kiakahaaotearoa Sat 07 Jul 2012, 10:42 am

So how does the Sharks and Crusaders' victory help their chances? Brumbies and Stormers have a game in hand. Could we see more upsets there? From a Crusaders point of view, I sure hope so. Can anyone tell me the last round's fixtures?

PS 38 is nothing Doc. That's a little nippy here in Madrid, albeit it with next to no humidity.

by **Biltong** Sat 07 Jul 2012, 10:46 am

Last round Kia.

Hurricanes vs Chiefs
Brumbies vs Blues
Crusaders vs Force
Reds vs Waratahs
Stormers vs Rebels
Sharks vs Cheetahs
Bulls vs Lions

If the Sharks and Bulls win their final matches with a 4 try bonus point then the log ends with

Chiefs
Stormers
Brumbies
Crusaders
Bulls
Sharks

The order may vary

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Sat 07 Jul 2012, 10:58 am

Next weekend's matches:

Hurricanes vs Chiefs
Brumbies vs Blues
Crusaders vs Force
Reds vs Waratahs
Stormers vs Cheetahs
Bulls vs Lions
Bye: Highlanders

Canes vs Chiefs will be interesting, otherwise it's home teams to win the rest. Bonus points will come into play.

The top 8 with likely finishing points in brackets is as follows:
Conference winners:
Chiefs 63 (64-68 - tough to call which)
Stormers 58 (66 - they're not good at 4-try BPs)
Brumbies 54 (62-64)
The Wildcard race:
Crusaders 56 (61)
Bulls 54 (59)
Sharks 54 (59)
Reds 53 (57/58)
Hurricanes 53 (53-58)

I expect the Chiefs to win in Wellington in a high scoring match - both teams need bonus points

So the playoffs will likely be:
"QF"s:
Brumbies vs Sharks
Crusaders vs Bulls

Semi-Finals:
Chiefs vs Crusaders
Stormers vs Brumbies

With the final in Hamilton or Cape Town

Edit, too slow!

by kiakahaaotearoa Sat 07 Jul 2012, 11:07 am

Cheers boys.

Well that's encouraging news as a Crusaders fan. That's a nice home game to get some bonus points. The boys better be fired up for that one and should be made to watch the Rebels match where they got spanked as motivation.

I would fancy the Crusaders' chances if they play the Bulls at home. Also I would fancy their chances against the Chiefs in a semi. The key is to avoid the Stormers until the final if they go that far. Which as a one eyed Cantab I think they are more than capable of doing. Turn up in the right mood like the semi last year and another away victory in the final is possible.

Admittedly a long shot but never write off the red and black. Yahoo

by doctor_grey Sat 07 Jul 2012, 11:29 am

I could see a few upsets in the final weekend.
The Chiefs could lose to the Hurricanes. I really doubt the Chiefs pull off the 4 try bonus point. I am not really sold on the Chiefs and the Hurricanes are real good.

The Brumbies could lose to the Blues (Brumbies looking pedestrian against Waratahs at the moment - halftime). Again I doubt they get the 4 try bonus point.

I could see the Sharks not getting the 4 try bonus point against Cheetahs (but can't see them losing).

The Stormers should get the 4 try bonus point against Melbourne (an upset only because they usually don't do that).

What does all this do to the playoffs? The Sharks look real tough at the moment. If they get in, they will be real difficult to beat.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:PS 38 is nothing Doc. That's a little nippy here in Madrid, albeit it with next to no humidity.

Mate, you must have been assimilated into the hot-blooded latin culture if 38 is not too bad. I still have the blood of my ancestry, my peoples, coursing through my veins. We are a people who shun the sun as a harbinger of evil things such as warmth, fun, happiness, a carefree lifestyle, love, joy affection. In other words, all things anti-English. God Save.......

by kiakahaaotearoa Sat 07 Jul 2012, 12:32 pm

Doc here the women bathe topless so I have embraced the Latin culture and its temperature!

by Taylorman Sat 07 Jul 2012, 5:37 pm

Still hoping the canes get that third nz spot over SA at oz expense but other results are needed.canes can certainly beat the chiefs as theyre fighting for survival, have had a small break to ready themselves and have just beaten the saders.

by doctor_grey Sat 07 Jul 2012, 7:06 pm

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Doc here the women bathe topless so I have embraced the Latin culture and its temperature!

Your women bathe?
(reminds me of that famous letter from Napoleon Bonaparte to Josephine)

What needs to happen for the Hurricanes to get through? Along with the Sharks, they are one of the teams I have really enjoyed watching this season.

by kiakahaaotearoa Sat 07 Jul 2012, 7:11 pm

Other results going their way and winning their remaining games with bonus points.

by doctor_grey Sat 07 Jul 2012, 7:51 pm

Oh, now its clear...........

by Guest Sat 07 Jul 2012, 11:36 pm

Brumbies are 3rd by right rather than due to that quirky arrangement, that's good news. As much as I'd like the canes to make it, rather it wasn't at the expense of the chiefs finishing top to the stormers. Go the rebels, I say!

by nganboy Sun 08 Jul 2012, 11:21 am

Brumbies are third by right but also lucky to have the Waratahs, Force and Rebels to pick up nice easy points up off. The SA conference has 3 good teams and NZ conference has 4 goodish teams. The fourth ranked team in NZ, the Highlanders, has had 9 wins the same as the 3rd ranked NZ team and the 2nd and 3rd ranked SA teams.

Its a poorly organised competition

by doctor_grey Sun 08 Jul 2012, 11:32 am

Even if Chiefs beat the Hurricanes, it is still likely the Stormers will finish top with the main tie breaker in their favour.

I think it will be a pretty tough ask fo the Hurricanes to get through. If they do, however, they will be tough to beat.

by Taylorman Sun 08 Jul 2012, 11:52 am

nganboy wrote:Brumbies are third by right but also lucky to have the Waratahs, Force and Rebels to pick up nice easy points up off. The SA conference has 3 good teams and NZ conference has 4 goodish teams. The fourth ranked team in NZ, the Highlanders, has had 9 wins the same as the 3rd ranked NZ team and the 2nd and 3rd ranked SA teams.

Its a poorly organised competition

Yes agreed as much on the other thread nganboy.

Weve known this for some time. This year better performed teams will mss out again.

by doctor_grey Sun 08 Jul 2012, 12:07 pm

And the Highlanders could have had a much better record if Colin Slade didn't get injured.

by Brendan Mon 09 Jul 2012, 11:25 am

Why don't they just have 8 teams go through. Or would it become to easy then as the bottom 5 are usually poor (ie usual one NZ, two Aus and 2 SA)

by **Biltong** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 11:30 am

I think only 4 should go through to be honest.

by Brendan Mon 09 Jul 2012, 11:41 am

I agree but how likely is that.

With 8 it allows the beter teams to progress tot he semi. NZ have the strongest conference so by right should be harder to get the 4th spot but easier to get 3/4 into the top eight.

that way when a team gets a higher/lower palce due to the conference they will be able to compete on a level playing feild in the quarter.

It is good to see the the brummies are now 3rd on merit.

by **Biltong** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 11:52 am

Top 8 last year.

Reds
Stormers
Crusaders
Blues
Waratahs
Sharks
Bulls
Highlanders

Top 8 this year (one round to go)

Chiefs
Stormers
Brumbies
Crusaders
Bulls
Sharks
Reds
Hurricanes

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Mon 09 Jul 2012, 11:59 am

Overall, big improvement from Chiefs and Brumbies at the expense of the Blues and the 'Tahs?

by Brendan Mon 09 Jul 2012, 12:16 pm

As super 15 is driven by money I don't know why they don't have a sheild/plate.

1-2 get home semi (like now)
3-6 play (as now) winner through to the semi losers through to the semi of the plate.
7-10 play the quarter with the top two playing the losers from the Cup.

It would generate more money, and that is why it is Super 15 and not super 12 which would make it better or even super10.

by **Biltong** Mon 09 Jul 2012, 12:21 pm

Well my belief is it should be super 9's.

I am working on comparative tables over the last two season and will produce all the comparative results after this weekend's results to complete my research.

But it is very clear from all three nations that a super 9 is what it should boil down to.

by Brendan Mon 09 Jul 2012, 12:35 pm

I think that Super 15 will lead to the big three slowly moving backwards as they match Europe for using players like machines rather then people.

With super 9 you would have about 120 players aof which half would be around the national team.

That makes the 3 teams of international, almost international and will be international players.

If you had to pick three would it be the bulls stomers and sharks or would you create different teams

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