Quarterback with the most to prove?

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Taken this and slightly adapted it from a video on the NFL site a few weeks ago. During the video Jamie Dukes and Trent Green discussed a number of quarterbacks who they felt have something to prove this season, in short they were:
Matthew Stafford – Has to prove he can stay healthy for a full season he’s missed 19 games so far in his short career.
Mark Sanchez – Main issue is consistency, but also discussed was whether he can lead the team. For example Dukes points out that when the great quarterbacks make a mistake they admit it was their fault but then attempt to step their game up and make up for the mistake, but he doesn’t see this happening with Sanchez.
Joe Flacco – Despite good numbers last season Dukes says that when the defence is struggling he doesn’t see Flacco step up and put the responsibility of leading the team to victory on his shoulders, Green says he is progressing well and just needs to continue his development.
Tony Romo – Main issue is he hasn’t taken his team to the big stage, and Dukes says he is another one who has to prove he is the team’s leader.
Eli Manning – Has to cut down interceptions, and improve his decision making and game management.
Jay Cutler – Mainly just has to win back the fans, but those in the studio say he shouldn’t have to prove his toughness when he was sacked 52 times.

Then Adam Rank who put the video in his blog claimed the quarterback with most to prove really is Peyton Manning, as he has to live up to his billing as the NFL networks eighth greatest player of all Time.

I can understand the reasoning for most of the inclusions in this list the only problem is Peyton Manning, despite everything that went wrong for the team he still took them to the post-season, managed a career high number of yards, threw 33 touchdowns and set an NFL record for number of completions.

Was just wondering who all of you thought was the quarterback with most to prove going into next season, and what they have to prove? Ignore those who will enter the league through the draft.

Grizzly wrote:Agreed but the 2 best receivers on the board are likely to be gone by the time we pick.

Free agency then? You can always try to sign Sidney Rice as it seems unlikely he will be with the Vikings next season. With Cassel I'm interested to see if he can take the team to the next level or if you'll go between having winning seasons against the poor opposition to having losing seasons against the better opposition. I also think the division will be tougher next season as the Chargers will want the championship back, the Raiders will look to build on last season where they went 6-0 in the division, have no idea about the Broncos though.

The problem with Stafford is if he keeps getting injured then Detroit will begin to look for a new franchise quarterback despite his talent, he isn't very useful when he misses more games than he plays.

Pr4wn - It will also be interesting to see how Manning and Brady react to having their replacement drafted, if they are willing to help develop them or if they will leave this to the coaches. I think though that both teams will wait a year or two before drafting the replacement.

What free agency ? the lack of CBA is hurting every team as well as players.
The danger now is that if/when there is a deal teams will panic and pay over the odds simply because they have a need.
And how does the lack of FA affect draft strategies ?

I agree that the West will be stronger next year - Chargers and Raiders will be better and Broncos (who incidently managed to beat up on us scoring near on 50 points mid season) should be better run and therefore better all round.

Both have late 1st rounders and thus could use them on a prospect like Mallett, Locker etc. Colts would look at trading back a bit, but its doable.

I'll believe the Raiders are better when I see it.

Grizzly wrote:What free agency ? the lack of CBA is hurting every team as well as players.
The danger now is that if/when there is a deal teams will panic and pay over the odds simply because they have a need.
And how does the lack of FA affect draft strategies ?

I agree that the West will be stronger next year - Chargers and Raiders will be better and Broncos (who incidently managed to beat up on us scoring near on 50 points mid season) should be better run and therefore better all round.

I hope the CBA will soon be sorted out and hopefully FA can begin when the draft is over. Its difficult to say how the lack of FA is affecting draft strategies but the teams will be aware that FA will come around eventually, if the season goes ahead.

I think the Patriots won't be looking for their next franchise quarterback this year, and will instead probably trade one of their first round draft picks to one of the teams who need a quarterback. With the Colts unless they are completely sold on the player being good enough to eventually come close to Manning's level then I think they will look to next year. Both of these teams have young quarterbacks as their current back ups, and it may be believed within the organisations that they have the potential to develop and become the eventual starter.

Curtis Painter really isnt developing into much

Can I ask how much you've seen him play? He's only played 2 games in his career and they were both in his rookie season, yes he has very poor stats in these two games, but after another year devloping with help from Manning and the coaches it would be interesting to see how he has developed, and I guess we will get the chance to see in the preseason.

Do you think the Jets are settled with Sanchez? They have apparently been working out Andy Dalton. Surely they must spot the same problems with Sanchez that all of us can see?

Pr4wn wrote:Will be interesting to see whether the Colt or Patriots pick up a QB in the latter rounds of the draft to groom behind Manning and Brady. Those guys will be coming to the end of their careers soon enough... unless they want to go on a shameless moneyspinner like Favre did.

It would not surprise me if we picked up a late round QB in this draft or even a little earlier if the value was there. We have held private workouts with a number of QBs who are projected as late round/UDFAs; Andy Dalton, Ricky Stanzi, Taylor Potts, Jeff van Camp and Adam Weber plus we have hosted Jake Locker for a two day visit just recently. The general consensus seems to be that the Locker visit was likely an attempt to generate interest in the Patriots late 1st early 2nd draft picks but I have no doubt that if BB thought the value was there he would draft Locker.

Quarterbacks drafted by the Patriots over the last 11 years:

2000 Tom Brady (round 6)
2001
2002 Rohan Davey (round 4)
2003 Kliff Kingsbury (round 6)
2004
2005 Matt Cassel (round 7)
2006
2007
2008 Kevin O’Connell (round 3)
2009 Brian Hoyer (UDFA)
2010 Zac Robinson (round 7)

I have included Brian Hoyer who was an UDFA in 2009 as he’s the current backup to Brady. Plenty of late round and UDFAs there so it’s not unlikely that we add a late round QB this year, personally I’m a fan of TJ Yates (UNC) and Adam Weber (Minnesota) as late round targets.

Sooner or later I think the Colts and Pats are going to have to take a QB high. Unless they strike very lucky, the best QBs generally are the ones taken in the high rounds.

1st Round QBs:
Peyton Manning
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
Mike Vick
Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan
Mark Sanchez
Matthew Stafford
Josh Freeman
Carson Palmer
Donovan McNabb
Jay Cutler
Aaron Rodgers
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Alex Smith
Vince Young
Jason Campbell

Thats 19 guys that could potentially be starting next year, not withstanding the likes of Newton, Gabbert, Locker etc...

2nd Round QBs:
Drew Brees
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
Jimmy Clausen
Brett Favre

3rd Round QBs:
Matt Schaub

4th Round QBs:
Kyle Orton
David Garrard

6th Round QBs:
Tom Brady
Joe Webb
Matt Hasselbeck

7th Round QBs:
Matt Cassel

Undrafted QBs:
Tony Romo

The proof is in the numbers. At a stretch you could say maybe 2 of the top 10 QBs in the league were drafted later than the 2nd round.

Don't forget that Fitzmagic was a 7th rounder.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWA_PIRTKBo

True, forgot about him. Still the point stands, the odds of getting a quality QB improve dramatically if you take one early.

But the odds still aren't perfect:
JaMarcus Russell
Matt Lienart
Kyle Boller

Are recent ones that haven't exactly excelled.

Graeme Swann's Cat wrote:Sooner or later I think the Colts and Pats are going to have to take a QB high.

As far as the Patriots are concerned, we'll take a QB if BB thinks the value is there at that point in the draft. For example, Kevin O'Connell was thought to be value in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft and I have no doubt that if BB believes Locker is good value at #17/#28/#33 then that will be the pick.

Drafting is an imprecise art. But for every Jamarcus Russell drafted high, theres hundreds of lower round failures.

17 is a bit high for Locker imo, 28 would be a nice fit.

Graeme Swann's Cat wrote:
17 is a bit high for Locker imo, 28 would be a nice fit.

Just to be clear i'm not necessarily saying that I personally value Locker as worth the #17/#28 or even #33 pick but if BB thinks he's value at a particular point in the draft then I have no doubt he'll draft the guy if he's available and the same goes for any of the other QBs, provided they're on the Patriots board in the first place.

I think Belichick will be more than happy to stick to drafting quarterbacks in the late rounds, then spending a few years coaching them and letting them develop behind Brady.

Graeme Swann's Cat wrote:Drafting is an imprecise art. But for every Jamarcus Russell drafted high, theres hundreds of lower round failures.

There is less risk though with lower round picks, the reason they are picked in the late rounds is that people are expecting they need time to develop if they are to become a starter, with a first round pick though it is hoped they can start pretty much straight away. Those players picked in the later rounds also get much less money, Russell got a contract worth $61 million with $32 guaranteed, Colt McCoy taken in the 3rd round last year signed a 4 year deal worth $5 million with $1.07 million guaranteed.

Theres less risk, and less pay off. Only 1 top 10 QB drafted out side the 2nd round (and even Brees was the 32nd overall) tells its own story

Well that depends on your view of the top 10, but I would say quarterbacks are different to other positions where quality can easily be found in the later rounds. The quarterbacks who have the potential to be good enough to lead your team to the super bowl are taken early because the position is seen as being more important than others in having a successful team.

I think Cutler has a lot to prove. After his injury in the playoffs and people questioning his toughness (which I don't agree with even though I'm not a fan of his), he'll be on the hot seat in Chicago.

As a side note, with a rookie salary cap coming into place and with rookies possibly being under contract longer with their drafting team, I think we might see more teams going along the old route of drafting a QB and then bringing him along slowly. With the old pay scale, I think teams that drafted a QB high and who had to pay him a lot of money, felt pressure to get him on the field immediately and see if he was a viable option before he left via free agency. Now they might have time to bring a QB along more slowly again.

The Mangler US_UK wrote:I think Cutler has a lot to prove. After his injury in the playoffs and people questioning his toughness (which I don't agree with even though I'm not a fan of his), he'll be on the hot seat in Chicago.

I agree with this though I have no issue with his toughness when you look at how many times he was sacked, or hit due to the poor O-line in front of him, and the fact he doesn't have a very strong receiving team.

Yeah, Cutler took a beating during the regular season, so why would he suddenly become gun shy during a huge game?

Cutler got a rough ride, but the a combination of his decision to watch from the sidelines looking like a sulky teenager while his side fought for a SB berth, and that he comes across as a bit petulant in the media didn't help his cause in that regard. Not that I'm criticizing him here, but a little background always helps.

That aside considering the massive price tag, and the ordinary play hes delivered so far in Chicago, Cutler has a lot to prove.

I'd like to think that Campbell comes out firing like he's got something to prove. At the end of the day he may have helped Raiders sweep their division last year but with an 8-8 record overall weren't good enough for the post season

Well, Cutler's demeanor has always been his problem - in fact, my friend and I call him Cry Baby Cutler. He does look like a perpetual sulker. But as far as removing himself from the game, Lovie Smith said it wasn't Cutler's decision - he did come back after the injury and then Smith and the medical staff decided to take him out and they took his helmet away. I'll defer to Michael Strahan who was speaking on having a sprained MCL, which affects the stability of the knee. Strahan sprained his MCL a couple of times and said that he could walk normally, but could not play because certain athletic moves were simply impossible with the instability that injury causes.

Cutler's play definitely improved over his 1st year in Chi-town, but he'll need to ramp it up even further to meet incredibly high expectations, but he'll need plenty of help (offensive line in particular).

I don't question whether he could or could not continue. The problem is, with your team down at home to your fiercest rivals, in the NFCC game, you're looking for some emotion. Cutler looked like he didn't care. This is where the basis for most of the criticism comes from.

And even without that considered, I'm looking for a little better play than around 7000 yards and 50 TDs to 42 INTs in 2 years from a QB I paid 2 1sts and change for. Regardless of the supporting cast.