OWGR - Week#32

Such a pitty that a great Olympics and its wonderful closing ceremony clashed with such a brilliant final day of a great edition of the USPGA! I enjoyed both but I feel somehow annoyed that I wasn't able to pay proper attention to either of them...

What a fantastic win from Rory McIlroy, simply outstanding and breathtaking! It looks like this will be remembered for many years to come as The Ror on the Shore! So, Rory is once again on top of the world at #1, leaving a rather wounded Tiger behind at #3. The European display has been quite outstanding this week and no doubt that the biggest surprize of them all is the incredible runner up place for David Lynn. This could well be a carreer defining moment for him, not to mention the unbelievable leap he's enjoying in the world rankings, jumping all the way to #40 after this!! Superb results also for those tied on the 3rd spot: Poulter moving up to #23, Rose up to #7, Hanson up to #30 and Keegan Bradley up to an incredible #12 in the world!

Not very much (relatively speaking) happening outside this last major of the year, but we should say well done to Chris Wilson, winner (after a playoff) in Missouri on the Web.com Tour and to Kristoffer Broberg from Sweden, for his 2nd win on the CT in as many weeks, this time in Norway! They should climb somewhere around #475 and #280, respectively. And last, but not least, a warm congratulation to Chris Wood who quietly flew away to Thailand this week and won his first significant tournament in his carreer on the OneAsia Tour! Not a lot of OWGR points on offer there, but should be just enough to see him getting somewhere close to #150 in the world...

The OWGR table after week #32 and after the last major of 2012, should look as follows:

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Luke Donald
3 Tiger Woods
4 Lee Westwood
5 Webb Simpson
6 Adam Scott
7 Justin Rose
8 Bubba Watson
9 Jason Dufner
10 Steve Stricker
-----------------------
11 Matt Kuchar
12 Keegan Bradley
13 Graeme McDowell
14 Zach Johnson
15 Hunter Mahan
16 Louis Oosthuizen
17 Ernie Els
18 Dustin Johnson
19 Phil Mickelson
20 Rickie Fowler
21 Martin Kaymer
22 Charl Schwartzel
23 Ian Poulter
24 Francesco Molinari
25 Jason Day
26 Bo Van Pelt
27 Brandt Snedeker
28 Jim Furyk
29 Sergio Garcia
30 Peter Hanson
31 Bill Haas
32 Carl Pettersson
33 Paul Lawrie
34 Nick Watney
35 Nicolas Colsaerts
36 John Senden
37 David Toms
38 K.J. Choi
39 Martin Laird
40 David Lynn
41 Thomas Bjorn
42 Geoff Ogilvy
43 Fredrik Jacobson
44 Simon Dyson
45 Rafael Cabrera Bello
46 Bae Sang-moon
47 Aaron Baddeley
48 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
49 Mark Wilson
50 Alvaro Quiros
-----------------------
51 Jonathan Byrd
52 Branden Grace
53 Kevin Na
54 Scott Piercy
55 Robert Garrigus
56 Kyle Stanley
57 Jamie Donaldson
58 Ben Crane
59 Anders Hansen
60 Marcel Siem
61 Padraig Harrington
62 Robert Karlsson
63 Alexander Noren
64 Michael Thompson
65 Ben Curtis
66 Greg Chalmers
67 Retief Goosen
68 Robert Rock
69 John Huh
70 Ryo Ishikawa
71 Miguel A Jimenez
72 Marc Leishman
73 Johnson Wagner
74 Vijay Singh
75 Rory Sabbatini
76 K.T. Kim
77 Matteo Manassero
78 Bernd Wiesberger
79 Ryan Moore
80 Hiroyuki Fujita
81 Y.E. Yang
82 Marcus Fraser
83 George Coetzee
84 Spencer Levin
85 Jeev Milkha Singh
86 Gary Woodland
87 Thorbjorn Olesen
88 Ted Potter-jr
89 Charles Howell-III
90 Pablo Larrazabal
91 Ryan Palmer
92 Toru Taniguchi
93 Joost Luiten
94 Brendan Jones
95 Darren Clarke
96 Bud Cauley
97 Brian Davis
98 Paul Casey
99 D.A. Points
100 Noh Seung-yul
------------------------
101 Charlie Wi
102 Andres Romero
103 John Rollins
...

I haven't really checked this out.

But one word:
DAVIDLYNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hands up all who predicted Lynn/Donaldson/Siem to be higher than Harrington/Karlsson/Casey at this stage of the year, or indeed ever?

Can't argue with seven Europeans in the top 10, but Olazabal's job isn't easy yet. McIlroy-McDowell-Poulter-Rose is a handy core at least, Hanson playing well too.

Unfortunate timing indeed. I'm sure there's going to be some knowledgeable golf fans that will innocently ask when Rory will win his 2nd Major as this one has just went completely under the radar.

The top 50 table based on owgr points earned this year (incl. USPGA):

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Tiger Woods
3 Justin Rose
4 Bubba Watson
5 Luke Donald
6 Ernie Els
7 Jason Dufner
8 Keegan Bradley
9 Zach Johnson
10 Matt Kuchar
--------------------------------
11 Graeme McDowell
12 Louis Oosthuizen
13 Hunter Mahan
14 Lee Westwood
15 Webb Simpson
16 Carl Pettersson
17 Jim Furyk
18 Steve Stricker
19 Francesco Molinari
20 Adam Scott
21 Phil Mickelson
22 Rickie Fowler
23 Paul Lawrie
24 Nicolas Colsaerts
25 Peter Hanson
26 Brandt Snedeker
27 Bo Van Pelt
28 Branden Grace
29 Ian Poulter
30 Bill Haas
31 Rafael Cabrerra-Bello
32 Marcel Siem
33 Kyle Stanley
34 Martin Laird
35 Robert Garrigus
36 Johnson Wagner
37 Scott Piercy
38 Dustin Johnson
39 Ben Curtis
40 David Lynn
41 John Senden
42 Mark Wilson
43 Padraig Harrington
44 Kevin Na
45 Robert Rock
46 John Huh
47 Mark Leishman
48 Sergio Garcia
49 Charl Schwartzel
50 Jamie Donaldson
...

And this is the top 50 table based on points earned this year at 3xWGCs and 4xMajors:

1 Rory McIlroy
2 Bubba Watson
3 Justin Rose
4 Keegan Bradley
5 Ernie Els
6 Webb Simpson
7 Graeme McDowell
8 Adam Scott
9 Hunter Mahan
10 Louis Oosthuizen
----------------------------------
11 Steve Stricker
12 Peter Hanson
13 Jim Furyk
14 Matt Kuchar
15 Lee Westwood
16 Tiger Woods
17 Ian Poulter
18 David Lynn
19 Luke Donald
20 Jason Dufner
21 Brandt Snedeker
22 John Senden
23 Michael Thompson
24 Padraig Harrington
25 David Toms
26 Bo Van Pelt
27 Phil Mickelson
28 Carl Pettersson
29 Charl Schwartzel
30 Geoff Ogilvy
31 Nick Watney
32 Mark Wilson
33 Francesco Molinari
34 Zach Johnson
35 Dustin Johnson
36 Nicolas Colsaerts
37 Aaron Baddeley
38 Scott Stallings
39 Miguel Jimenez
40 Martin Laird
41 Martin Kaymer
42 K.J. Choi
43 John Huh
44 George McNeill
45 Bill Haas
46 Fredrik Jacobson
47 Retief Goosen
48 Paul Lawrie
49 Ryo Ishikawa
50 Bae Sang-Moon
...

princedracula wrote:And this is the top 50 table based on points earned this year at 3xWGCs and 4xMajors:
...

Astonishing to see Woods, Westwood and Donald ALL outside the top-10 in this table. One could have taken some serious coinage from me betting that one say last April...

By the way PD... thanks for your OWGR efforts. Not just this week... but every week. Much appreciated.

princedracula wrote:The top 50 table based on owgr points earned this year (incl. USPGA):
...

On another note, young Ben Kohles finally hit the wall in his third Web.com event, finishing 60th. But hey... not bad if you ask me. With all the attention this kid's been getting, just being able to pull the club back and making the cut this week still seems like a decent accomplishment to me. And despite a no points week... he did move up a few spots to #254 due to attrition from others. It'll be interesting to watch his OWGR over the next few weeks/months/years; 10 more weeks before any of his points begin to depreciate and 37 events to go before he reaches the minimum divisor...

And on another note... Over the year's I've heard several arguments the minimum divisor is bogus and should be eliminated. Good we have a guy like Kohles to point out why they have a minimum. Despite the kids wonderful accomplishments, I doubt anyone would seriously want to make a case young Ben should have been OWGR #1 for the last 2 weeks (with a 14.00 OWGR average), or that he should be OWGR #3 right now at 9.33.

Robo, it will still skew the results but I see no reason why a first year player could use a minimum divisor AND use the average attrition rate for the two years (56.25%)

Discounting his gross points by 43.75%, and using a 10 tournament min would put him OWGR avg of 1.585 which would put him just outside the top 100, which would give him a fair chance of making the top 50/60 by year end.

Thanks robo, that's true, Kohles meteoric rise over the past few weeks is very impressive, and we're experiencing something similar on the Challenge Tour the last couple of weeks with Broberg from Sweden. Another interesting thing about Kohles though (don't think Broberg will be that lucky here in Europe) is that Mr. Wyndham (?) has taken note of him already and before you know it, he's in the Greensboro field for this week ready to mix it up with the big boys... Good luck to him!

Talking of which, the Greensboro field is still rather fluid, but it's good to see Colsaerts and Donaldson deciding to stay over on that side for another week. Colsaerts in particular will need to show Ollie that he's still alive and well... For totally different reasons, Paul Casey is also waiting for a free spot in the NC field. With the Czech Open falling by the wayside this year, there's nothing else available this week on this side of the pond...

Early count (Day, Thompson and Garrigus are out) would suggest ~40-42 pts to the winner (slightly up from 38 pts last year), but as I said, things can still change...

Interesting that Goosen has given up on the FE Playoffs. He is 127th in the standings and not playing Wyndham (but in the field at GlenEagles) so he will not be in the FE Cup. And he has only played 12 PGAT events this year.

Stewart Cink has also given up on the FE playoffs. #135 and not playing this week.

What does it take for Kaymer to fall out of the EUro RC top 10?

Two players have to pass him, Poulter will pass him if he finishes in the top 55 or so at Barclays.

Sergio needs 13.5 points. 3rd at Wyndham or 7th at Barclays should be enough.

Colsearts needs 20 points. Two way Tie 2nd at Wyndham T2 or a win at GlenEagles.

GPB - the Barclays doesn't count for Ryder Cup qualification.

Tinmar wrote:GPB - the Barclays doesn't count for Ryder Cup qualification.

I thought that was true two years ago because Monty had to make the picks right after GlenEagles finished.

But doesn't Ollie make his picks on Monday? after the Barclays is over? (unless it goes to Monday)

Quite a nice field for Greensboro, improving year-on-year by the looks of things. Would think Casey will get in, but am surprised he's not playing at Gleneagles where he's won a couple of times and would surely be welcomed into the field.

Good experience for Colsaerts, but still a strange choice instead of keeping to his Gleneagles commitment.

Talking of Kohles, another good finish from Luke Guthrie this weekend, pity he's not at Greensboro.

GPB wrote:

Tinmar wrote:GPB - the Barclays doesn't count for Ryder Cup qualification.

I thought that was true two years ago because Monty had to make the picks right after GlenEagles finished.

But doesn't Ollie make his picks on Monday? after the Barclays is over? (unless it goes to Monday)

Yes, but the Barclays still doesn't count.

Freddie Jacobson another Greensboro defection.

Greensboro is still looking in the 42 pts range, but if another one like Freddie says pass today or tomorrow, it may slip down to 40...

Colsaerts is playing Gleneagles as well, so hats off to him for trying to do all he can at this stage to get into the RC team and to impress Ollie...

The current top 4 OWGR will remain unchanged after this week, as Simpson and Dufner could only climb to 5th even with a win...

Why have I completely spaced on the fact that Gleneagles is next week, not this?

So, if RC qualifying concludes that week, surely The Barclays is in play also for the likes of Garcia, Harrington and Poulter? Edit: Or not??

Kwini - apparently not. It specifically states on the official RC website that the World points list ends at the conclusion of the event at Gleneagles. Even though the captain's picks have been delayed until Monday to avoid a repeat of what happened in 2010, the Barclays itself won't affect the standings.

Therefore Poulter can't overtake Kaymer and he is the most vulnerable to be overtaken. He will certainly be picked but that would then only reduce Olly's options.

It seems silly to exclude the Barclays but they probably think it would diminish Gleneagles if it was no longer the final event. Someone might play great there and move into a qualification position only to be overtaken later that night.

That seems the most sensible way to do it to me. Keep the primacy of Gleneagles as the final event, which is the only thing that ever gets it a decent field; but allow the captain the chance to pick someone who plays well in the States that week.

Ned - I can see the logic and I'm sure that's why they've done it like that.

What could happen though is that Poulter might win in New York but still have to rely on one of the captain's picks. Meanwhile Kaymer, who is in terrible form and would be a very unlikely pick, will probably hang on as it would require two players to overtake him in order for him to miss out.

As unlikely as it might be, Poulter and Kaymer are at risk.

Assuming Wyndham is OWGR Level 40

1st place 40 pt
2nd place 24 pts
3rd place 16 pts
4th place 12 pts

Colsaerts is 19.33 behind Kaymer, Two way T2 is enough.
Garcia is 13.41 pts behind, Two way T3 is enough.

There are a few unlikely scenarios for Garcia and Colsearts to knock Poulter and Kaymer out of the 9th and 10th spot.

My inner Oliver Stone thinks there is going to be a Miguel Angel Martin-esque conspiracy where Kaymer is suddenly going to come up with a bad back or something

Spencer Levin replaced by Billy Horschel in the Greensboro field.

Interesting that at least seven PGA Tour members, including Goosen, Karlsson, Stenson and Casey have already committed for Crans sur Sierre. Won't do much for the owgr's but great attractions nevertheless.

Final count confirming Greensboro @ 42 pts.
And for those who would like to do some number
crunching for next week's European RC deadline,
at the moment the Gleneagles field looks to be ~ 34pts (TBC)...

Not so good for Ben Kohles this week, but Luke Guthrie going like a train at the web.com event - in second place with two holes to play. Halfway to clinching his card via the web.com route whatever he does with his PGA Tour opportunities.

Shame to see Lovemark struggling after his 63 yesterday - just goes to show, some golf form is fickle, that from those just (relatively speaking) out of College especially so.

I wonder if Lovemark is proof of "Casey-syndrome", the danger of trying to play through injury, losing form and rhythm by doing so, then belatedly taking time out but not being able to recapture the way you played before. Pretty sure Lovemark played a few months at the start of his rookie year before conceding defeat with the injury he'd been carrying, dreadful decision not to recuperate earlier in hindsight. Could well be playing mini-tours next year if he's not careful.
Pity for him, but I do take a little bit of schadenfreude in watching the massively hyped young players like Lovemark struggle, while guys who were completely overlooked have turned pro and had immediate success, Kohles and Guthrie being two, Paul Haley (4th in Web.com standings) another.