Here we go again, this year Cincy final could be the biggest non-slam match of the year so far!

Both guys have clearly shown that they are head and shoulders better than their opposition so far this tournament and the most deserving players to duke it out in the final. This matchup is highly intriguing because it will have a big impact on year end number 1. The points race this year is razor thin and this match represents a 1000 point switch. Not only will one of the year end 1 contenders gain 1000 points but will prevent his closest rival from gaing 500 more points in the race. I can't remember a non-slam match with this much significance in the tennis seasonl. Of course many will say it was the Olympic final or that the WTF will be the most important. But this is a fed Djoko match that will have a big impact on the number one race late in year. 1 v. 2 matchups are always very special, and this rivalry match has taken on some significance in its own right in recent years. So in short it is huge for multiple reasons. Including, and maybe most importantly building momentum for one year end contender, and taking away some momentum from your nearest rival in the points race. My sense is Novak is building confidence while Roger is in the middle of great run of form on his own. Roger will know that Novak is his closest competitor for the USO and for 1, and he his conscious of wanting to dent his confidence as well his point total before the final pivotal slam.


Now as for my analysis of how this titanic conflict will wrap up. In short, I punt. This is a 50/50 pickem. For as many good reasons as I can think of why Roger will win, I think of many good reason why Novak will win. Novak I think has been in great form dismantling an obviously not 100 percent Del PO and having won not only toronto but the last two hardcourt masters and last 3 hardcourt slams. Roger is playing outstanding and some of the best tennis he has played in years, no one has even been close to breaking him this year in Cincy at a tournament he has won 4 times. Novak has never won cincy and it is the only outdoor masters that he has not won at least once. The quicker surfaces, humidity and heat favor Roger. Roger is the better server and flatter ball striker the surface and heat helps him much more than it does Djokovic. Conditions favor Roger, Novak maybe is the better hardcourt player in general than Roger at this stage in their careers, but maybe this particular hardcourt is not his most conducive to that slim edge he might enjoy. Especially, in light of the way Roger has been serving lately and especially this week. In short, I chicken out, it is too close to call.

I thought the first win by Nadal was the biggest; it set the tone for the clay season, and ultimately the biggest match of the season when Nadal got his RG reord and denied Djokovic the Slam.

This is just a US warm up between two guys with a Slam win each.

That is a fair point, that did give Nadal a boost, but maybe the fact that nadal faded due to injury in hindsight makes that match less significant in the way the season turns out. I also think because the USO is very important in determining pretty much the year end #1 that the winner of this match will get a momentum and a psychological boost. By no means is it a knock out blow regardless of who wins, but I think the winner goes in to the USO as the favorite.

I don't take it makes that much of a difference. Federer could play rubbish here, and improve for the USO final and beat Djokovic there.
Its just a case of who plays better in the day.

Nadal-Djokovic was different- that was a match of pattern- and in MC Nadal needed a win after the AO soul-crusher.

It's very close but I'm going to pick Novak.

When Fed knows he is playing well and his game is in good order, I don't think he cares enough about non-slam tournaments to really get into a scrap. I think he will already have an eye on the USO.

I think Novak, by contrast, really wants and needs this title. He needs the points and he needs a win against one of the big guys and will fight hard for it if he has to.

That's the only big difference I can see between them; both are in very good form.

Good posts IMBL and Murdoch, but I disagree that this isn't a huge match as far as non-slam matches go. I think it is more important for Novak as he is a streak player more than federer and feeds of his emotion and confidence. One good sign for Novak is that he is much healthier it seems than this time last year, and this time last year he still managed to win the USO although he was having some physical issues due to fatigue at this time last year. So that is a good sign.

This match mark my words is going to have an impact on what happens at the open. I wouldn't want to be the field if Djokovic comes into the USO with 10 straight hardcourt wins, 2 masters, and a win over FEd. At that point I think he would start to really flow with his game at New york. Certainly, Novak could lose and win the open, Roger could lose and win the open; but I think if Novak does beat Roger on a court that really favors Fed than it could be a dangerous warning shot to the rest of the field at the OPen.

socal1976 wrote: I wouldn't want to be the field if Djokovic comes into the USO with 10 straight hardcourt wins, 2 masters, and a win over FEd.

Technically it would be 15 straight wins (inc Miami) but I know what you mean!

The field can relax.

HM Murdoch wrote:

socal1976 wrote: I wouldn't want to be the field if Djokovic comes into the USO with 10 straight hardcourt wins, 2 masters, and a win over FEd.

Technically it would be 15 straight wins (inc Miami) but I know what you mean!

You have to be drunk to bet on Djokovic for early noon matches. Got shafted

Well done to Federer, it was a strange match, I only tuned in late for the match (the mini heatwave in London makes you very tired without air con) and was shocked to see the first set had gone 6-0! Reminded me of their match @ Rome, but that went to Djokovic but in that match Federer only showed up in the second set, same here but this time it was the other way round.

Fed now has around a good 900 point lead, so even if he loses in the first round in the USO, he'll remain the World No.1! Good signs for the USO. The H2H between the two is now 2-2 this year.

What a strange performance by Djokovic. I think this is confirmation that he is not mentally all there. I haven't seen him even touch his top gear this year except for the moments at the end of the AO this year and at Miami he got into top gear a bit as well. I mean you can play enough to compete like you did in the second set but you come out completely flat in the first. To me this is a distracted and annoyed Djokovic we are seeing, his focus is not all there right now. Lets hope he can right the ship by the time of the open, frankly i am not that optimistic.

confirmation that if Fed were Djokovic's age, Djokovic would not beat him in those 2 USO's.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic, I don't see anything to justify that. The only difference between 2011 and 2012 is that Nadal came back hard on clay and Federer is fully at the races this year after a poor 2011 when he was working at his Mk III game.

The margins between these guys are never that big, just a few points sometimes does it. He may be concerned about the physical price he had to pay to achieve what he did in 2011, and the AO, but otherwise he seems fine. Breezed to Toronto and this final, just ran into Fed on a fast court. It happens, as Murray at Dubai.

I think this makes Roger the clear favorite both for the number 1 and the USO. Novak is not the same player that is for sure, he is not playing well enough to win a slam or finish year end #1 at this stage. Something is off with the guy mentally and it is keeping him from playing at or near his best for any extended period of time.

BB this performance sealed it for me that there really is something causing him to lose focus. Roger played great nothing can be taken away from how he has played recently he is clearly the best in the world right now in terms of current form. I think I could of won a game or two off of Novak the way he played that first set, it was bizarre, he couldn't hit two balls in a row on the court. How do you do that after dismantling Cilic and Del Potro to not being able to hit 2 or 3 neutral balls in a row in. I mean almost every set this year he goes off reservation with his forehand when he is hitting a neutral ball or a ball he is even in the lead on. In this first set he did it all set long. When he did hit through the forehand late in the second set he blasted a few in a row right by Roger and then froze up again by spraying a couple of really routine forehands early in the tiebreaker. That routine forehand that he is giving way so often this year was being creamed by Djokovic not just last year but hell for the last few years. Now he seems to go on mental vacations at least one service game a set. The first set was bizarre especially after how he played in the second set today and in his previous matches against cilic and del po. It was like someone snatched his mind away for half an hour and then returned it to him, he was on vacation or something.

socal1976 wrote:That routine forehand that he is giving way so often this year was being creamed by Djokovic not just last year but hell for the last few years. Now he seems to go on mental vacations at least one service game a set. The first set was bizarre especially after how he played in the second set today and in his previous matches against cilic and del po. It was like someone snatched his mind away for half an hour and then returned it to him, he was on vacation or something.

He'll be okay socal - the above quote from you could equally have been written about Feds during the last few years on occasions.

I still think Djokovic is odds on favourite for US Open now that Nadal is out.

I'm unsure if we can draw too many conclusions from this match. Cinci is one of the only hard court tournaments on the ATP Circuit Djokovic hasn't won, despite being in 3 finals (an almost mirror image to how Rome is for Fed) and now 4, so clearly Cinci presents difficulties for Djokovic just like Rome does for Fed. The way the match progressed was very much like their Rome match, with both the first sets here and @ Rome, very one sided and the second sets very competitive but arriving to the match in the second set against top players is usually too little too late, as it proved for Fed in Rome and as it proved for Djokovic today.

Of course at the time, many of us Fed fans were surprised and were at a loss to explain what happened in Rome. Maybe an off day for Fed? As it happened, it was a precursor to what would happen @ RG just a a short while later, so I can understand your concern socal about what this could mean for the USO. Although despite that disappointing loss to Djokovic in Rome, it did not preclude Federer from going on to win Wimbledon and now Cinci but I probably will agree that Djokovic needs to regroup fast, because going on what we seen so far this year, there's a pretty good chance Djokovic will face Federer if he makes the final and the pressure will be more immense in a final than a semi final. Clearly 2012 is not going to be like 2011 in the rivalry between these two and it's not going to be a one sided H2H of 4-1. At the moment I'd say Fed has the slight edge heading into the USO, and I'm pretty confident he will reach the final too, 3/4 previous times he's won Cinci, he's also gone onto make the final @ the USO (and the other time was only match points away from making it), so for a Fed fan, the USO looks to be within striking distance! The last time Fed won this many titles in a year was way back in 2007 (in his pomp) and there's a good chance he will add a few more so he may match that year in terms of titles won (8)!

I don't buy this Djokovic mental lapse thing, it's just showing how hard it is to play at the highest level when the focus of expectation is on. Three years ago these slips were excused, but not now.

This is what Federer has lived with for ten years. When he cracks it gets put down to the pressure exerted by his opponents. I do not see any reason to think Djokovic doesn't suffer similarly.

Luciusmann, that's an extraordinary statistic; that Federer could even match 2007 in terms of titles. Incredible. Maybe the class of 2007 wasn't as bad as some make out?

bogbrush wrote:
This is what Federer has lived with for ten years. When he cracks it gets put down to the pressure exerted by his opponents. I do not see any reason to think Djokovic doesn't suffer similarly.

Well all pressure ultimately comes from the opponent. But the threshold at which Novak wilts definitely seems to be lowering. For instance when he double faults away break points at RG and does the same again today, that's not Rafa or Fed doing anything out of the ordinary. Novak faces many break points and doesn't usually collapse. But it's a different story when he's facing the top guys.

I will grant you however that Novak's travails at staying at the top for even one year, do put the achievement of Fed's longevity into perspective!

What is the general consensus of Federers Olympic Gold match with Murray? Im still a bit stunned by it, watching him today made me more confused! Was he that mentally exhausted? or Physically exhausted after Del Potro? Because I dont care how well Murray played, you dont beat Federer 6-2 6-1?!

I feel like Federer hasn't shed much light on it, maybe he doesn't want to take away from Murray as he knows how hard the Wimbledon final was on him? Or was it just as simple as an off day against someones good day?

I think he was really jaded from the Del Potro match and Murray played really well. Put the two together and once it went away Federer had neither the physical or mental resources to drag it back.

socal1976 wrote:BB this performance sealed it for me that there really is something causing him to lose focus. Roger played great nothing can be taken away from how he has played recently he is clearly the best in the world right now in terms of current form. I think I could of won a game or two off of Novak the way he played that first set, it was bizarre, he couldn't hit two balls in a row on the court. How do you do that after dismantling Cilic and Del Potro to not being able to hit 2 or 3 neutral balls in a row in. I mean almost every set this year he goes off reservation with his forehand when he is hitting a neutral ball or a ball he is even in the lead on. In this first set he did it all set long. When he did hit through the forehand late in the second set he blasted a few in a row right by Roger and then froze up again by spraying a couple of really routine forehands early in the tiebreaker. That routine forehand that he is giving way so often this year was being creamed by Djokovic not just last year but hell for the last few years. Now he seems to go on mental vacations at least one service game a set. The first set was bizarre especially after how he played in the second set today and in his previous matches against cilic and del po. It was like someone snatched his mind away for half an hour and then returned it to him, he was on vacation or something.

I would agree that Novak is lacking something in the mental department this year compared to last. Last year he had that air of invincibility where he never knew he was beat even when in the darkest holes against the best players he found a way back. No doubt that is lacking this year. I do agree to some extent with BB as well as can last year be taken as a norm for Novak and that all players have dips in departments of their game and it is how they can bounce back or deal with it that determines how successful they go on to be.

Novak always is harder to beat when he is being patient and neutralising the ball, thumping the ball is not going to work for him against Fed or Murray. I would have to put him third, to Roger and Andy, of favourites for the US. That forehand is really not going to cut it at semi's and finals, playing like that even Ferrer will like his chances of taking him out.