La Vuelta

First topic message reminder :

Can't wait to see how this unfolds.

Froome or Contador?
My heart says Froome, my head says Bertie-his Tour of Atonement?

Or Cobo?

Or.....?

can't argue too much with that Mike, Contador looked pretty comfortable before Froome's attack certainly. Of course, one could ask whether he should be happy to lose 20 seconds (once time bonuses are added) to Froome, knowing he'll have to outclimb him to win the Tour. Rodriguez looked strong, so as with Froome one wonders whether he should have attacked earlier.

Maybe the real Contador isn't that great a climber

With the tempo Sky were riding, it was tough to attack. By the time they ran out of riders, we were into the last km and Froome did accelerate. I was surprised Contador didn't go with it, but I think he'll be close to Froome in the TT so maybe he feels all he needs is one big attack on a climb. Or maybe he was genuinely struggling.

Certainly an awesome show of strength by Sky, by the time Froome went it was down to Froome, Contador, Valverde and Rodriquez anyway.

I'm not sure he's going to just let Froome ride away from him like that. He tends to roll over the line at the finish rather than sprinting, but that was a big gap.

Mike Selig wrote:With the tempo Sky were riding, it was tough to attack. By the time they ran out of riders, we were into the last km and Froome did accelerate. I was surprised Contador didn't go with it, but I think he'll be close to Froome in the TT so maybe he feels all he needs is one big attack on a climb. Or maybe he was genuinely struggling.

Certainly an awesome show of strength by Sky, by the time Froome went it was down to Froome, Contador, Valverde and Rodriquez anyway.

Really not sure about that. Over the last couple of months Froome has shown himself to be top 5 in the world in TTs (I reckon he's about fourth best on a flat course, higher than that on a hillier one). Contador's good at it, but not that good. Will lose anything from 30 secs to a minute minimum IMO. Considering he's now nearly 30 seconds behind already, it's a decent gap to make up. I know he doesn't sprint, so maybe was thinking "can't be bothered to go with guys who can outsprint me anyway" but over one kilometer it was quite a large gap, unexpectedly so.

I don't think that was Contador at his best - of course one thing to remember is that he is probably a bit short of race fitness, which is the sort of thing that shows up in that last few % needed for a sudden kick like Froome made. You can train for climbing, but not so much for racing on a climb. Losing out even to Valverde is the thing that suggests he was well off his best, as he would want to minimise the time loss (noting there are bonus seconds on the line in the Vuelta)

As for why not attack earlier, it was a short clime (3km or so), so any time gaps would be trivial and not worth the energy expended. Froome's tactics were fine, just that Rodriguez was strong enough to match him and out-sprint him. As MfC points out, Froome is a better ITT rider and can probably overturn at least a couple of minutes on Rodriguez (less easy to know compared with Contador, who has on occasion produced Cancellara-beating ITTs and other times been only just better than Andy Schleck), so the 13 seconds deficit is not anything to worry about

another flat stage, another sprint to victory by Degenkolb. And people thought Cav and HTC were dull

don't really understand Sky's tactics in trying to lead it out, Swift just isn't a good enough sprinter to win these stages IMO, though by being the lead out man it did mean Froome kept out of trouble. Interestingly Uran dropped off the back at the end of today (though not sure if he was caught in the crash or not). He was fourth in the GC but is clearly saving himself for the lieutenant work for Froome.

From what they said on ITV the other day Froome just likes getting out of the pack, he isnt very comfortable in tight groups on fast finishes, so leading out gives him a good chance to firstly ensure he isnt caught napping and secondly avoid getting elbowed as much as possible and also avoid any shenanigans or crashes as best as is possible. It does appear that Swift isnt up to it as a sprinter though doenst it.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote: It does appear that Swift isnt up to it as a sprinter though doenst it.

As a second string, backup sprinter he's actually very good.

He's had a curtailed season due to the Olympics, but he had a couple of good wins in Poland and hasn't been sprinting badly this week. His performance today was more due to not having a proper last man and thus being left out in front on his own too early.

He's never going to be Cavendish good or Griepel good, but his record in bunch sprints is pretty solid.

Having watched the highlights on ITV when they showed yesterday's stage again I have changed my mind big time: Contador (IMO) was struggling, as Froome accelerated he got out of the saddle, then sat down once the gap openned up beyond 20 meters. Valverde actually looked caught out more than struggling (and I think expected Contador to bridge). Of course Contador could be riding into form as dummy_half suggested, but on that evidence it's Froome vs Rodriguez for the win.

As much as I want to believe Contador on the the whole meat/clenbuterol saga, that it was just dodgy meat; the fact is that ever since the news broke he hasn't been at his best e.g. TdF 11 and now the Vuelta, he just hasn't had the same kick in his legs that he once did and it's a shame for cycling if he never, legally, regains that form.

actually Valverde said something similar in his post-race interview (toujours une excuse celui-là), in that he wan't expecting Contador to be unable to respond to Froome's attack, and thus was caught unawares. I'm not sure how well Rodriguez will manage the longer mountainous stages (those which have more than one climb) where I'm sure Sky will look to put the pressure on.

As things stand, I don't see Valverde or Rodriguez being a genuine threat to Froome.
I think it will still be a shootout between Froome and Contador and with Sky having strong climbers in the line up, Froome has every chance of winning this.

With another summit finish tomorrow, we may gain a bit more insight. Can't wait.

Froome losing time for the first time (really) today. Didn't get to see the stage so would be interested in people's views on what happened. Certainly just looking at the list of finishers he may have been isolated? No real concerns for the GC, though Rodriguez has stretched his lead to just over 30 seconds. Not a threat yet given the TT but doesn't want it to strech much more. Contador back on pretty much level pegging.

He got dropped in the last km. Contador attacked and got a bit of time then Purito and Valverde just sat on Froome and forced him to do the chasing before sprinting up and past Contador to the finish.

Think Froome did too much of the work earlier on in the climb and paid the penalty.

JDizzle wrote:As much as I want to believe Contador on the the whole meat/clenbuterol saga, that it was just dodgy meat; the fact is that ever since the news broke he hasn't been at his best e.g. TdF 11 and now the Vuelta, he just hasn't had the same kick in his legs that he once did and it's a shame for cycling if he never, legally, regains that form.

That's not exactly true, he was dominant in the Giro 11 which was after the news broke - I would say his performance in that was almost as strong as 2009 TdF, and he was clearly holding back.

thats right and because of his stellar efforts at the giro the pundits said he was overcooked for the tour and suffered because of it.

My mistake, I thought that Giro was before the news broke.

some interesting comments from the top 4 post race today: Valverde either doesn't see himself as a genuine contender or is trying to convince the others that it isn't the case. Rodriguez says he'll need a very good TT, he's right of course. Contador clearly sees Froome as his main rival (basically all he says all interview is how happy he was to gain time on Froome). Froome says he hopes there won't be a Spanish alliance and that he struggled a bit towards the end today. Also not sure how well he's going to last the distance.

I agreed with the itv4 pundit with imlach when he said froome shouldn't change his tactics and resort to playing the spaniards at their own game of stop-start.

Bit of a non day for the GC chaps today, everyone safely in the main pack letting the sprinters play in the final stretch.

Tomorrow and the weekend should be the deciders, indivudal TT which is Froomes chance to get time then two more phoney days followed by 3 days in the mountains.

big day today. So far by picking up a few seconds here and there Rodriguez has been able to build an advantage of nearly a minute over Froome. Today is when that changes as Froome should gain at least 2 minutes on Rodriguez (and take the leader's jersey). Can't help but feel Froome could do with a really good TT to put some daylight between him and the rest.

Thats what hes said himself. He doesnt have the kick to take the others in the mountains, just has to dog in there and hope they break themselves trying to chase time back on him and each other.
Valverdes comments suggest he doesnt rate his chances against the other 3, Contadors still got question marks, JR may be bob in the TT but has been the class in the mountains so far and has nearly a minute in the bank....but has he been ragging himself too much to get that? At least someones gone for it a bit

Theres far more interest in this than the TdF thats for sure.

the main trouble with the TdF for me was
1) how dominant Sky were (pretty much untouchable), which meant the only person who could beat Wiggo was Froome, which was never going to happen/be allowed to happen.
2) the lack of attacking riders: Nibali and VDB both had a go, but neither are attacking riders by instinct (like Contador or Rodriguez for example).

Valverde doesn't seem to rate his chances, and I'm not sure I do either, but he's hung on well so far. I think the thrid week (and the longer mountain stages) will be too much for him. Rodriguez has looked very good, though so far they've been his type of stage (pretty flat before one final climb). Again, question marks over the longer mountain stages. Contador a mixed bag, hasn't looked as strong as I'd expected but may be playing himself into form. We'll know a lot more after today I think...

Contador top at the first time check, 4 seconds up on Froome. Valverde is 31 seconds behind Contador, and Rodriguez 39. Seems Froome is not quite in TdF TT form, but maybe he's just being careful of not going out too hard.

Surprised at Martin's performance.

yep, Froome struggling. Didn't do well on the climb certainly, losing a lot of time. He's 16 seconds behind Contador at the second checkpoint, and more surprisingly lost time to Valverde there (who's only 35 seconds off Contador). Needs a big finish to the TT here does Froome, but I wonder if his exertions of the season are finally catching up with him?

It does look like Froome is struggling, and not surprisingly given his efforts for Wiggins in the TdF and then winning his Olympic bronze. He is now 26s behind Contador and not looking good, so it looks like a British Grand Tour double is off for now. The big story is Rodriguez fighting desperately to hold onto the leader's jersey; and he might just do it!

Froome loses only 22s to Contador and most of that was lost on the climb and the descent. Obviously Froome is not as suited to the hillier TT's as Contador, and he would have preferred it to be flatter but he is still there or thereabouts, but winning the Vuelta looks ambitious from here.

Rodriguez has pulled out a huge effort. And him and Contador are near enough tied! Down to hundredths of a second to decide who wears red. With Froome 15s more back.

Froome fights back pretty well there at the end, and ends up losing only 22 seconds to Contador. Rodriguez does superbly to limit his losses, and in fact holds onto his leader's jersey by one second! Froome a further 15 seconds back, so not out of it, but is going to need something extra which i'm not sure he's got. Don't rule out Valverde either, who had a good outing and is 59 seconds behind Rodriguez.

Actually the Contador-Rodriguez battle might just help Froome. If they're busy looking at each other he could just profit...

Its Contador vs Rodriguez now surely, Froome will be relying on them to push each other too hard and break to get back in it.

Huge stage win today for Riodriguez blasting Contador on a hill finish, its surely his tour now. Froome just isnt a good enough climber, hung on but still lost another 30 seconds.

Nothing to do with Froome's climbing. He's just running out of form.

credit to Froome, he gave it a go on that last climb and attacked Rodriguez, even dropping him a bit at one point, but the legs just aren't there. It reminds me of Evans in the TdF to a lesser extent: Evans had a go on one of the mountain stages, but it cost him dearly later in the stage and I wonder if that's what happened to Froome yesterday. Like DJ, I think Froome is just running out of form (TdF + Vuelta was always going to be tough). I actually think Rodriguez will win now, the course with all its hily arrivals is tailor-made for him, and the way he rode back to Contador yesterday was so impressive.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:credit to Froome, he gave it a go on that last climb and attacked Rodriguez, even dropping him a bit at one point, but the legs just aren't there. It reminds me of Evans in the TdF to a lesser extent: Evans had a go on one of the mountain stages, but it cost him dearly later in the stage and I wonder if that's what happened to Froome yesterday. Like DJ, I think Froome is just running out of form (TdF + Vuelta was always going to be tough). I actually think Rodriguez will win now, the course with all its hily arrivals is tailor-made for him, and the way he rode back to Contador yesterday was so impressive.

add to that the olympics RR where he went through a big effort in an attempt to help cav.

today's stage is basically the last chance for contador. he will attack for sure. am impressed by Rodriguez cool in yday stage, he didnt follow contador (like froome) preferring to climb at his own pace which proved to be the right decision.

The Tour remains my favourite but, hey, this Vuelta is something else!

Yes, it looks like Froome has had it now barring accidents, mechanicals or a sudden collapse with Contador, Rodriguez or Valverde. And who would wish any of those to happen?

I know some are saying that Froome is exposed without Bradley but I tend to agree with those here. It's the tail end of a long, tough season; he's given it all and is still fighting back a la Evans.

As a commentator said yesterday-it wasn't many years ago when a Brit in the top ten would have been cause for celebration.

Finishing fourth will be highly creditable.

I agree it was probably just one step too far for Froome in terms of keeping top form for that long.

But for me Rodriguez has been mighty impressive this Vuelta. Especially after the disappointment of the Giro earlier this year, he is looking really strong for taking the red jersey

I can't believe I've missed all this. I didn't realise there were highlights on ITV... so have not caught any of the action so far. Will see the highlights tonight, but as stated above it's pretty much all over now. Very little scope for anyone to take it from Rodriguez. I'm not at all surprised that Froome has suffered, it probably is a bridge too far for him, but 3 top 5 finishes in the last 6 grand tours is not to be sniffed out. Next season though he needs to concentrate on the tours he is leading and not support Wiggins.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Contador going on the attack tomorrow on the Fuente De, it may only be 5% gradient but that may benefit his accelerations and he may find it easier getting a gap on Rodriguez on a shallower climb than the steep stuff (holding the gap and building on it has been the problem for his thusfar).

It has been a fantastic Grand Tour though. One of the most brutal routes I can remember in my short cycling following career! I think it has been nice to see it decided in the mountains after the Tour, by necessity with the Olympics so close, was decided in the TT's. Compelling viewing, and Contador will not give up but unless Rodriguez dramatically loses his legs I can't see it.

EPIC

My god what a stage

Now that's vintage, straight after a rest day Contador for you.

His recovery drinks have always tended to be of the highest standard.

Christ so can we now go back to assuming Contadors just being more careful to clean his wee wee before testing day?

Poor old Froome looks broken by everything

Don't reveal the result please!

I won't get to see this till the ITV4 recording later tonight.

By the way-isn't the BBC news website dreadful on cycling at the moment?

Why would you click on the thread if you didn't want to know the result?

To read the erudite discussions of course!

Contador is a beast. Can't wait for him to win his TDF yellow jersey back next year.

Azabache wrote:Don't reveal the result please!

I won't get to see this till the ITV4 recording later tonight.

By the way-isn't the BBC news website dreadful on cycling at the moment?

they have the result on there too so if youve already looked its a bit late to be whinging about us mentioning it!

I really would like to believe that all the riders are "clean", but .....

wish they had been able to show contador's attacks from the start!

can't wait for saturday's stage!!