Wannabes, Wobblies, Dingo Deans and their place in world rugby. Perceptions and realities.

Saw an interesting article on the Rugby chamionship website: .

[quote]Tri-Nations review - 16 years of the Wallabies

By SANZAR Communications

In the first of a three-part feature, sanzarugby.com looks at each of the Tri-Nations team’s 16-year history since the tournament began in 1996, and it is only fitting that we begin with the reigning champions, the Wallabies.

Australia has won 29 of their 72 Tri-Nations matches played, with 42 losses and one draw. While it may not be the most flattering record, Wallabies supporters will no doubt point out that wonderful cliché “you are only as good as your last game”, and that was a stunning 25-20 win over the All Blacks to claim their third title in 2011 (Not anymore sadly).

Their first Tri-Nations was won in 2000, and they went back-to-back with another success the following year.

Running alongside the Tri-Nations are trophies for Australia versus New Zealand clashes (Bledisloe Cup) and Australia versus South Africa fixtures (the Mandela Challenge Plate).

With just two Tests against their trans-Tasman rivals this year, the All Blacks 30-14 win at Eden Park ensured it finished 1-1 in 2011, despite Australia’s success in Brisbane, which means the holders of the Bledisloe retain the trophy.

The Wallabies won it in 1998, and held it for five years – their longest stretch in the Bledisloe’s 80-odd year history – but haven’t hoisted the Cup since 2002.

However Australia added the Mandela Plate to their Tri-Nations trophy, with a 2-0 success against the Springboks this year, winning 39-20 in Sydney and 14-9 in Durban.

They have held it for two years now, and have won it six times in the nine years the Plate has been contested.
Highest Tri-Nations points scorers

271 – Matt Burke (7 tries, 19 conversions, 65 penalties, 1 drop)
198 – Stirling Mortlock (10 tries, 21 conversions, 37 penalties)
193 – Matt Giteau (7 tries, 25 penalties, 33 conversions, 3 drop)
Most tries scored

10 – Stirling Mortlock, Lote Tuqiri
8 – Joe Roff
7 – Matt Burke, Matt Giteau, Chris Latham
First Tri-Nations title - 2000

The portents were set when the Wallabies defeated France 35-12 to win their second Rugby World Cup, and the stage was beckoning when then reigning Tri-Nations champions the All Blacks rolled into Sydney for the opening Test.

Exactly 109,874 spectators were on hand – the biggest ever rugby union crowd – to witness quite possibly one of the greatest Tests ever played, with the Wallabies coming back from 24-0 deficit (the All Blacks start was so remarkable Stadium Australia suffered a power cut in the first half!) after 10 minutes to draw level 24-24 at halftime.

It seemed as if Australia would claim victory, before the incomparable Jonah Lomu scored a try to win the match 39-35 in injury time.

The Wallabies would convincingly beat the Springboks 26-6 in Sydney, while a thriller in Johannesburg would see the South Africans down the All Blacks 46-40, which to this day remains the most points put on New Zealand.

The scene was set in Wellington, and it looked as if the All Blacks had done enough, leading 23-21 as the match went into injury time.

However two kicks to touch resulted in two lineout steals to the Wallabies, before All Blacks prop Craig Dowd infringed to give Australia a kick to win the match.

With regular kicker Stirling Mortlock off the field, captain John Eales calmly lined up the kick, striking it cleanly through the middle of the posts to give the Wallabies their first Tri-Nations championship.
Most memorable title - 2001

With the memories of their triumphant 2011 Tri-Nations still fresh, we take a look at their last title before their success this season, their second title which was the toughest for the Wallabies to win.

Their campaign didn’t begin ideally, losing in their first match against the Springboks in Pretoria, despite overcoming a 14-0 halftime deficit, failure to breach the home team’s try line resulted in a 20-15 loss.

A week earlier the All Blacks had managed to do what the Wallabies hadn’t, and beat the Springboks on their own turf, triumphing 12-3 at Newlands.

However the Wallabies would get their campaign back on track, recording their fifteenth (and most recent) win on New Zealand soil with a historic 23-15 win at Carisbrook, the first time Australia had won at the fabled “House of Pain”.

The champions elect were in control for most of the match, leading 10-5 at halftime, before closing out winners with a penalty try, while Matt Burke collected the rest of the team’s points with a try, two conversions and three penalties.

However things continued to go off script for the Wallabies when they scrapped to a 14-14 draw against the Springboks in Perth, while the All Blacks convincingly defeated the South Africans 26-15 at Eden Park.

The deciding match of the tournament would result in more heartbreak for the All Blacks, as for the second straight year the Wallabies would ‘snatch victory from the jaws of defeat’.

Australia held court in the first half, leading 19-6 at the break.

The All Blacks recovered, scoring 20 points to three in the second stanza, and with ten minutes to play it looked as if New Zealand would take the crown.

However Eales turned down three kickable penalties, stubbornly pushing for the try with kicks to touch each time.

It seemed as if the All Blacks defence would hold, but flyhalf Stephen Larkham threw a sublime inside ball to a rampaging Toutai Kefu, who scored to give the Wallabies a 29-26 win, and the title.

This result would complete the greatest period in Australian rugby history.
The year it all went wrong

In 2005 the Wallabies claimed the Tri-Nations wooden spoon, the first time since 1997 they had claimed that dubious honour.

The All Blacks, fresh off a whitewash of the British and Irish Lions, claimed the series, although in the early stages the Springboks had the early running with identical score line wins (22-16) over Australia in Pretoria and New Zealand in Cape Town.

The first Bledisloe Cup clash in Sydney started promisingly enough, courtesy of a marvelous Drew Mitchell try where he worked past no less than Rodney So’oialo, Dan Carter and Mils Muliaina to help the hosts establish a 13-0 lead.

Yet that only managed to click the All Blacks into gear, as they flexed their muscle at scrum time and orchestrated an attacking game of such fluency that one could have sworn the men in black were painting a masterpiece, such was their dominance in the backend of the game.

Thirty unanswered points gave the Wallabies a 30-13 defeat, while Bryan Habana’s two tries in Perth gave Australia an agonising 22-19 defeat to the Springboks.

The final match of the tournament saw the Wallabies stunned with the All Blacks racing out to a 20-0 lead at Eden Park, before a fight back ensued which saw the visitors close to within one point, before Doug Howlett’s third try of the game gave the home team the Tri-Nations.

The Wallabies finished that year winless, with a record low three bonus points, and would close that season with their worst test losing streak since 1969, which cost Eddie Jones his post.
Most significant match

By the time the All Blacks rolled into Sydney for the final match of the 1999 Tri-Nations, they had already claimed the title, courtesy of three thumping wins – 28-0 against the Springboks in Dunedin, 34-15 against the Wallabies in Auckland and 34-18 against South Africa in Pretoria.

Few would have predicted that the Wallabies would skip out to a remarkable 22-7 halftime lead, and go on to rout the All Black 28-7, which remains to this day the heaviest Test defeat in New Zealand rugby history.

Interestingly the 1999 tournament was the year of the penalty kick, with All Blacks number ten Andrew Mehrtens kicking 21 (including a record 9 at Eden Park) in four tests, while Wallabies fullback Matt Burke slotted over 13.

The rest they say, is history, as the All Blacks crashed out of the consequent World Cup, while the Wallabies went on to claim their second global title.http://www.sanzarrugby.com/therugbychampionship/news/tri-nations-review-16-years-of-the-wallabies/

I find it funny how the Wallabies seem to be the only 3N team with a nickname. You don't hear an AB supporter call the Springboks any condescending names and apart from Puff Divvy I can't think of any derogatory nicknames for their coaches either. The Wallabies certainly looked like the Wobblies last week and I even saw a few Aussie supporters naming them that.

So where does this inferiority come from. I was quite surprised by the statistic that the Wallabies have won the Mandela plate 6 out of 9 times since it has been contested. Their 5 year streak seemed an eternity for AB fans so goodness knows how 10 years feels. Giving a game each year to Sydney may change that but Mark Ella still came out in the press this week and said it'll be another decade until the Wallabies win the Bledisloe back. Alan Jones joined in saying Deans was just a provincial coach and was out of his depth at international level.

Similarly when you look beyond the 3N, Australia also seem to take a cop a lot of criticism. Australia don't trouble us is what I've seen a few English posters write even though they conveniently overlook the fact that England has lost more games to Australia than it has won. Ireland too probably fancy themselves now against Australia after their win in the RWC and Scotland will probably feel the most likely of the NH teams to beat Australia.

Everyone it seems likes to talk up their chances against Australia. Their record in the 3N was not too flash but they certainly have held their own and are not regular cellar dwellers like Scotland or Italy say in the 6N. Which team in the NH would compete as well as Australia in the now defunct 3N? Not a single one in my view.

What is now apparent is that Australia does not possess great depth. They have key personnel injured and their replacements are not up to the task. Stirling Mortlock was a beast on defence but it surprised me to see how many tries he scored. AAC is a good replacement at 13 for Mortlock but nowhere near as effective as a tryscorer. Settled combinations help confidence grow and improve performance. When was Deans able to have continuity in his selections. I think he has made errors in selections for sure and he hasn't used the bench at all well but he always seems to be plugging gaps due to injuries. I can't recall a time where he has been able to settle his squad and name the same combination.

There seems to be a perception that the Aussie forwards are powder puff and their scrum is weak and that if you can tie up your playmakers then you've won. Well Wales seemed to come up against a team that didn't look so flaky in the forwards.

I think Australia certainly can improve a lot. But sometimes I think they keep copping unjustified stick. They are the last ever 3N holders and their inability to beat the ABs is by no means an anomaly in world rugby. You may well fancy your chances against Australia up north but only because the physicality of the Boks and the pace of the ABs makes them seem a much more attractive proposition. I'd love to see the results of the last ten years of each nation against Australia and see how the results stack up (a plea for help from the stats geeks and an admission of my own bone idleness!) I don't think they're quite the easy beats people make them out to be.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:

I find it funny how the Wallabies seem to be the only 3N team with a nickname. You don't hear an AB supporter call the Springboks any condescending names and apart from Puff Divvy I can't think of any derogatory nicknames for their coaches either. The Wallabies certainly looked like the Wobblies last week and I even saw a few Aussie supporters naming them that.

So where does this inferiority come from.

Kia I think you will find the answer to that in NZ's perception and measurement of itself as much as you will find it in the Australian psyche. Rugby clearly brings much pride to NZ and provides a flag to wave at the arrogant loud mouths across the Tasman.

Sometimes that flag waving gets out of hand though. Just as it does when the ABs lose and some insecurities come out to play.

Deans seems to be copping a lot of flak from a few Kiwis but you don't hear any criticism of any other Kiwi coaches around the world. A divide formed between Deans and Henry for some. I myself was quite happy to see Henry reappointed and saw no problem in Deans taking up the offer of the Wallabies coaching role. I was surprised that Ewen McKenzie has slipped off the radar and he isn't talked up more in the media. I think Deans has got a number of things wrong but I also think he's done a few good things since he took over. His performance against the ABs is the one glaring deficiency as well as defeats to teams who shouldn't have troubled Australia. All those defeats had key personnel not playing though which shouldn't be used as an excuse but he really has had bad luck with his preferred squad never allowed to settle.

Here's the record against England according to Wiki:

Details Played Won by Australia Won by England Drawn Australia points England points
In England 21 9 11 1 323 340
In Australia 17 14 3 0 502 224
Neutral venue 2 0 2 0 32 37
Overall 40 23 16 1 857 601
Results
Date Venue Score Winner Comments Attendance
17 November 2012 Twickenham, London – 2012 end of year rugby union tests
13 November 2010 Twickenham, London 35 – 18 England 2010 Autumn International 80,002
19 June 2010 Telstra Stadium, Sydney 20 – 21 England 2010 England rugby union tour of Australia 48,392
12 June 2010 Subiaco Oval, Perth 27 – 17 Australia 32,228
7 November 2009 Twickenham, London 9 – 18 Australia 2009 Autumn International 80,020
15 November 2008 Twickenham, London 14 – 28 Australia 2008 Autumn International 80,688
6 October 2007 Stade Vélodrome, Marseille 10 – 12 England 2007 Rugby World Cup quarter-final 59,102
17 June 2006 Telstra Dome, Melbourne 43 – 18 Australia 2006 mid-year rugby test series 41,278
11 June 2006 Telstra Stadium, Sydney 34 – 3 Australia 60,124
12 November 2005 Twickenham, London 26 – 16 England
27 November 2004 Twickenham, London 19 – 21 Australia
26 June 2004 Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane 51 – 15 Australia
22 November 2003 Telstra Stadium, Sydney 17 – 20 England 2003 Rugby World Cup Final 82,957
21 June 2003 Colonial Stadium, Melbourne 14 – 25 England
16 November 2002 Twickenham, London 32 – 31 England
10 November 2001 Twickenham, London 21 – 15 England
18 November 2000 Twickenham, London 22 – 19 England
26 June 1999 Telstra Stadium, Sydney 22 – 15 Australia
28 November 1998 Twickenham, London 11 – 12 Australia
6 June 1998 Lang Park, Brisbane 76 – 0 Australia
15 November 1997 Twickenham, London 15 – 15 draw
12 July 1997 Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney 25 – 6 Australia
11 June 1995 Newlands, Cape Town 25 – 22 England 1995 Rugby World Cup
2 November 1991 Twickenham, London 6 – 12 Australia 1991 Rugby World Cup Final
27 July 1991 Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney 40 – 15 Australia
5 November 1988 Twickenham, London 28 – 19 England
12 June 1988 Concord Oval, Sydney 28 – 8 Australia
29 May 1988 Ballymore, Brisbane 22 – 16 Australia
23 May 1987 Concord Oval, Sydney 19 – 6 Australia 1987 Rugby World Cup
3 November 1984 Twickenham, London 3 – 19 Australia
2 January 1982 Twickenham, London 15 – 11 England
3 January 1976 Twickenham, London 23 – 6 England
31 May 1975 Ballymore, Brisbane 30 – 21 Australia
24 May 1975 Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney 16 – 9 Australia
17 November 1973 Twickenham, London 20 – 3 England
7 January 1967 Twickenham, London 11 – 23 Australia
4 June 1963 Sydney Sports Ground, Sydney 18 – 9 Australia
1 February 1958 Twickenham, London 9 – 6 England
3 January 1948 Twickenham, London 0 – 11 Australia
7 January 1928 Twickenham, London 18 – 11 England
9 January 1909 Rectory Field, Blackheath 3 – 9 Australia

That goes back to all the matches. England has dominance at home but Australia much greater dominance at home. Overall pretty close but certainly not justifiable to say 'Australia does not trouble England'.

I'm not sure anybody (seriously) thinks that 'Australia does not trouble England'. As an England fan Australia don't have the 'fear factor' that perhaps NZ and, to a lesser extent, SA do but it's never an easy game, home or away. Even when they're at a fairly low ebb they can still pull something out of the bag.

I've got a healthy respect for the Aussie side and, along with France, they are the side I enjoy facing. It's partially because they're my two favourite sides to watch and also because we quite often get their number I guess.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think Deans has got a number of things wrong but I also think he's done a few good things since he took over. His performance against the ABs is the one glaring deficiency as well as defeats to teams who shouldn't have troubled Australia. All those defeats had key personnel not playing though which shouldn't be used as an excuse but he really has had bad luck with his preferred squad never allowed to settle.

Who are the sides that shouldn't have troubled Australia?

sugarNspikes wrote:I'm not sure anybody (seriously) thinks that 'Australia does not trouble England'. As an England fan Australia don't have the 'fear factor' that perhaps NZ and, to a lesser extent, SA do but it's never an easy game, home or away. Even when they're at a fairly low ebb they can still pull something out of the bag.

I've got a healthy respect for the Aussie side and, along with France, they are the side I enjoy facing. It's partially because they're my two favourite sides to watch and also because we quite often get their number I guess.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I think Deans has got a number of things wrong but I also think he's done a few good things since he took over. His performance against the ABs is the one glaring deficiency as well as defeats to teams who shouldn't have troubled Australia. All those defeats had key personnel not playing though which shouldn't be used as an excuse but he really has had bad luck with his preferred squad never allowed to settle.

Who are the sides that shouldn't have troubled Australia?

Samoa pre-RWC for one

Here we go. This is more like it:

Wallabies team against all nations
Played W L D Winning percentage
Argentina 17 12 4 1 70.59%
Free Use British and Irish Lions flag (bordered).png British and Irish Lions 20 5 15 0 25%
Barbarians.png Barbarians 12 8 3 0 72.72%
Canada 6 6 0 0 100%
England 40 23 16 1 57.50%
Fiji 19 16 2 1 84.21%
France 41 23 16 2 56.10%
Ireland 30 20 9 1 66.67%
Italy 14 14 0 0 100%
Japan 4 4 0 0 100%
South Korea 1 1 0 0 100%
Namibia 1 1 0 0 100%
New Zealand 144 41 98 5 28.47%
New Zealand Māori[30] 16 8 6 2 50.00%
Pacific Islanders 1 1 0 0 100%
Romania 3 3 0 0 100%
Russia 1 1 0 0 100%
Samoa 5 4 1 0 80%
Scotland 27 18 9 0 66.67%
South Africa 74 32 41 1 43.24%
Spain 1 1 0 0 100%
Tonga 4 3 1 0 75%
United States 7 7 0 0 100%
Wales 35 24 10 1 67.4%
Total 511 268 228 15 52.44%

Wales and Scotland with the best winning percentage but still with more defeats tan victories.

Sugar Samoa and Scotland at home should not trouble the Wallabies on paper. In a World Cup, with Australia's pedigree, they should be able to beat Ireland and even the Irish posters weren't confident going into the match (though they're not renowned for their optimism at the best of times). I can fully understand why England supporters are confident of being able to tip the Wallabies over, particularly at home, but they're certainly not as bad as SOME make them out to be.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:

Wales and Scotland with the best winning percentage but still with more defeats tan victories.

Best compared to which other sides? Those %s you quote are losing %s for sides against Australia.

Wow I thought Aussie was around 35% against NZ. 28% is pretty crazy. Puts Australia at England's level roughly concerning win percentages against the ABs.

Concerning the old 3N I get the image of the teams running ahead of the chasing NH pack, but Aussie having a slight limp and getting caught up by the NH teams from time to time. They do get tripped up in the NH more often so it's easy to understand why the NH regards them as the weak link of the 3N. But the Aussies have an amazing sporting mentality, the best in the world IMO, and they win some games they shouldn't either. They exceed expectations the most at the World Cup.

Of the NH sides disney who seem to fancy their chances against Australia. But there isn't a single one with wins in their favour. Compared to the record against SA and NZ which seem a much tougher touring prospect they are a more attractive proposition but still one that is very tough to beat.

The Lions are the only NH team to have performed well and I must admit surprisingly well.

Reminds me of my mate and I walking out of an exam once. I said "Wow that exam sucked!" only for him to say "Nah, was p*ss easy". I got an A and he failed it lol.

Just like the ABs saying Aussie is a tough game-more so than the NH teams who have an inferior record.

Maybe he was copying you but didn't realise you were on another page!

I like the analogy though. We give respect to the teams who have a proven ability to beat us. England for example though may well have a different attitude towards France and Australia because they feel they can win.

They have a home advantage against both teams:

Here is France's record:

Details Played Won by England Won by France Drawn England points France points
In England 45 29 11 5 757 451
In France 48 22 24 2 649 660
Neutral venue 3 1 2 0 45 45
Overall 96 52 37

I am surprised that it's so far in England's favour but it does seem to justify the feeling that they have the wood over them but not so Australia (apart from a slight home advantage).

Although when you look at the ABs' record against France, that respect for them doesn't seem to justify itself:

Details Played Won by All Blacks Won by France Drawn All Blacks points France points
In France 23 16 6 1 540 276
In New Zealand 25 21 4 0 613 320
Neutral venue 3 1 2 0 89 76
Overall 51 38 12 1 1242 672

We always remember the losses though more than the wins! Sometimes I think it's a case of the opposite for other teams, particularly against Australia.

Kia, I think the French/NZ feeling is a bit skewed because France have had a couple of very high profile wins in world cups. Those get remembered, for good or bad

The overall stats are very much in favour of NZ.

Also, re. England and Australia I think there's a big difference between saying 'they won't trouble us' and 'we've got a good chance of beating them'. I definitely side with the latter statement.

Aus may be seen as the weakest of the top three (a relative statement given the historical and current strengths of the old Tri-Nations sides) but that's not to say they're not a big challenge for all sides. Their so-called powder-puff scrum has surprised a few sides who assumed that they would just roll over. I hope the Lions aren't so complacent.

Yes but they also have some high profile wins touring in NZ. Also with unfancied sides as well. The French have been able to raise their game to a higher level on a few occasions and put in a Herculean defensive performance. The fact they don't tend to do this to other international sides just adds to their mystique and our nerves when we play them. The stats show though that they don't trouble us very often.

I agree about your assessment of England's chances against Australia. It's nonsense to say Australia don't trouble us. The only advantage you have is playing them at home. The fact that they don't have the history of the All Blacks or Springboks though doesn't mean they're an ordinary side. You know you have the wood over a nation when you start fixating over the defeats the side inflicts on you. When you start going on about victories, it invariably means you're being selective about which games you take into account.

For this match I'm not buying into all this historical stuff. This ones more about two things but in essence the same thing- injuries, and lack of depth.

With key injuries Oz are having to look at two key factors to have a hope of snaring this match. The return of previously very successful players in Mitchell and Cooper, and the form of some relative newbies.

Dennis, Hooper and the rangy higginbotham hardly send shivers as a back three and kepu and nau have able replacements in moore and alexander. Sharpe is the ulta loyal experienced standout in the depleted pack and barnes and AA Cooper have once again shifted to cover positions.

The whole side has a patched up look to it and deans can`t have ever envisioned this side going onto the track this year, making the chances of key combinations clicking on the night under the pressure of a newish Ab side wanting to stamp its own mark on world rugby very unlikely.

Add to that the dropping of one of Ozs two world best players, the other Ioane, in Beale, completes the picture of disarray.

If oz don't compete in the breakdowns and don't provide full in your face defence...hard to see with cooper and barnes then they'll be reeling backwards.

I'm fully aware of the great victories oz have had over NZ and attended at least three of them, but this one seems a bridge too far.

The loss to Scotland, the very narrow wins against Wales and an error ridden match against a scratchy AB side at home in Sydney don't inspire their chances for this one.

For me it feels like they want to come and get this one over and done with as quick as possible.. the remaining tests for the year cleary more palatable.

Trouble is that's just not the way it works. I'm expecting a very comfortable win this week and on face value that's what should happen. If the ABs don't put this one away with room to spare then the rest of the yeat will not be as rosy as it might seem.

This is one chance to put the wallabies well and truly away.

Having just read tonights dominion post,and NZ HERALD,Hansen himself has warned about the attitude of the NZ fans.That it is just a matter of of the AllBlacks turning up and the size of the win.HE at least has the sense not to have that attitude myself i`ve seen it before matches.Then had to console myself because complacency caused my side to lose.It is reflected here big time today i hope you are right but fear you may well be wrong.Incidentally if you include New South wales wins versus the All Blacks as test matches in 1903-20 period when they were Australia there win stats may increase.As a matter of fact the Wallabies have won more matches v ABs than any one.

That's right Alan Hansen has warned it. In the same vain ted said the abs would thrash the wallabies. Its Hansens job not to be complacent as he knows it has a direct effect on his team.

Ted has no direct input so can say what he really thinks, as in hansens game, what he thinks and what he says are two different things.

Does he tink the ABs will win well. Of course he does. He has to. He has to believe in his abilities as a coach and have faith in tis side. Does he say it publicly?

Of course not. What gain in there is that?

I know we could lose. And I know you and others will come on and go na na na na ...told you so in some point scoring manner.

But that worries me not one single iota. In looking at the relative merits of both teams and how each got there, my 'honest' opinion is the same as teds.

How many matches have you predicted a thrashing Alan? Put all that knowledge on the line for a change. Very very rarely...if ever. And how many have there been? Many. Many more than you have sat on the cautious fence for the risk of being wrong. And when there is a thrashing? All is forgiven.

50,000 will be out thinking and willing the same as I will. I couldn't care less if I'm wrong in my prediction, but at leat I had one, and it wasn't based on kicking for touch.

Hi,Taylorman you are correct in many things you say, don`t stick my neck out because it is follow my leader.All the facts point to a NZ win agreed,last week OZ could have won they did`nt.A couple of years Scotland were given no chance against either England or France they won both games.Australia have nothing to lose it`s a matter of going for broke.Last years 3Ns final match it was
oh yes the full side will walk this they did`nt.Afterwards it was stated on the lines what does it matter it`s only a 3Ns we want the RWC.Well we got the RWC but it was to close for comfort and the AB`s got the best of the Refs decisions and won.I`m as much an AB fan as any here,i`m glad they got the RWC monkey of there back.BUT I`m furious they threw away the 3Ns a full strength side versus the Boks wrap it up.THEN throw in the stiffs versus Oz the irony was the tried to protect team against the Boks and key injuries occurred against OZ.I to hope and expect the AB`s to complete the job hopefully with no injuries.The next 3 games are at home,then Argentina away hopefully that will be 5-0 at that time then the away match with the Boks maybe the 4Ns decider.
Unlikes some here I respect every team,take nothing for granted. I count losses not wins especially those which with the right attitude may have been avoided .Example France v NZ 1999 RWC the AB`s were so far ahead at half time in my opinion they eased up mentally or otherwise and lost.By the way IF they lose I won`t say I told you so you will be able to work it out for yourself.I`ll be drowning my sorrows in cups of tea and Bacon butties.

He he...yeah I like to do all the analytical stuff before and after...

but as the match gets closer I first notice the odd twitch...

...then the little shake of the leg here or there...

then by match day I'm pretty much shaking uncontrollably, frothing at the mouth...

All the analysis goes out the window and the pure emotion of it all takes over in one large wave...

so even if we lose I'm far to drained to work it out...

Well it kinda goes abit like that...

Another joins the band wagon...

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/7541226/Smith-joins-crowd-picking-All-Blacks-blowout

Love the "if the AB's have a good week analytically..." comment

typical Smith.

Tman,

I love how you said "That's right Alan Hansen has warned it." - I had no idea that the former Liverpool defender and BBC football pundit took an interest in the AB's .

Looking forward to this weekend and I'll go out on a (very strong) limb for Alan (emack2 not Hansen) and say that the Aussies don't have a snowball's chance in hell and the AB's will win comfortably - Alan, I know you like to be conservative and are clearly a glass half-empty kind of guy, however I always believe that the AB's will win and am generally happy enough after we lose (2007 reffing debacle aside) to say we weren't good enough and I got my prediction wrong - I prefer to be happy and upbeat about our chances rather than all gloom and doom.

I also believe that we are quite simply at the moment a long way ahead of the rest of the teams in the world, have more depth and, as has been shown by our U20 sides over the last few years (2012 aside, although that was always going to be hard to win against SA in SA - Suzie, were you involved again ), we have the best young guys coming through in the near future.

You have to rate the Autralian's a chance. They are the no.2 team in the world. Sure their record against us hasn't been that great as of late, but one reason it's so dire is that they've lacked a reliable goal kicker for much of the last 5 or so years.

They haven't won in Auckland since 1986 (the French victory in 94 is the only loss since then). But records are made to be broken. Everybody is righting them off, it makes it harder for the all blacks to really motivate themselves that last few %.

By the way, their record in the professional era is I think 2nd only to the AB's. That record of 14 wins (32% of matches) against the AB's is the best of anyone over this time period (i.e. since 1 jan 1996).

Team Mat Won Lost Draw % won
v SA 41 22 18 1 54%
v Wales 19 16 2 1 84%
v NZ 44 14 30 0 32%
v France 16 13 3 0 81%
v England 21 11 9 1 52%
v Sco 13 11 2 0 85%
v Ireland 14 10 3 1 71%
v Italy 9 9 0 0 100%
v Arg 6 5 1 0 83%
v Fiji 4 4 0 0 100%
v Lions 3 2 1 0 67%
v Canada 2 2 0 0 100%
v Rom 2 2 0 0 100%
v Samoa 3 2 1 0 67%
v USA 2 2 0 0 100%
v Japan 1 1 0 0 100%
v Namibia 1 1 0 0 100%
v PI's 1 1 0 0 100%
v Russia 1 1 0 0 100%
v Spain 1 1 0 0 100%
v Tonga 1 1 0 0 100%

blackcanelion wrote:
They haven't won in Auckland since 1986

To be fair to the convicts, they did beat Italy at North Harbour and Wales at Eden Park during the World Cup. Whether winning a meaningless game is enough for them to be rid of the hoodoo remains to be seen though.

Everything points to a blow out, yet it could be close. Tough to pick what exactly will happen, but I'll guess a 18 point victory to the ABs

Hi BC,

I agree that you can never totally write anyone off, however the form book, history and the analysis of many a better pundit than I points to this being a bloodbath (or at the very least a comfortable win). I'm more than happy to be complacent (based on logical analysis) as long as the AB's aren't and the reason I don't believe they will be is all to do with what happened in the 2nd test against Ireland - that will not be happening again this year.

As for the Aussie record, yeah it is pretty good (albeit mostly in Aus or on neutral territory e.g. Hong Kong), however most of those wins came in the late 90's/early 2000's - here are the stats, which leave me more than quietly confident:

Since 2005, the AB's and Aus have played 23 times
Since 2005, Aus have won 4 games - all at home or neutral territory (Hong Kong) - 17.39%
Since 2005, Aus have won 0 games against the AB's in NZ - 0.00%
Since 1996, Aus has only beaten the AB's 3 times in NZ
Since 1986, Aus has never beaten NZ at Eden Park

That's why I said history doesn't have a lot to do with this one. This time last year we were sweating over the cooper lead side. Most of that history was there then as well. For this match so many more facets go against an oz win.

Should they win they'll more than deserve it because on paper they simply shouldn't. Full kudos if they do that's for sure! They've just had a horrid run and they're depth has continued to be like an open gaping wound.

I think part of it is Deans in that he's not as adaptable as he could be. Just my opinion. Oz need a coach who can dig as deep into the trough as far as he can go. Deans just never looks desperate or frustrated enough. That's partly a personal trait but...put it this way...he hides his passion well.

This thread wasn't designed for this week's game. After that bumbling Sydney test, I predicted the ABs would click in the backline and the forwards will tidy up the ball. I do hope they use that Irish 2nd test as a reminder what can happen if you buy into all the media hype and don't turn up in the right frame of mind.

But it seemed that the neutrals had Australia as wooden spooners and now gave themselves a fighting chance against Australia in the Autumn Internationals. After that display, you could be forgiven for thinking that, but Australia doesn't play like that against everybody I'm afraid and this 4N is only one game in.

Have to agree with you guys. Head says the AB's all the way. This little dark voice in back of my skull worries about the Wallabies.........

just enjoy the game bc. Sure we can lose. Just hope its a great match. Just a lot of nervous talk going on..