Myth of the missing Mojo

We've heard a lot this year about Djokovic's missing Mojo. The idea goes that 2011 is his 'par' form, and so 2012 must be explained away. Well, it can be, but we don't need to go looking for a mislaid magic bean to explain the difference.

The answer to the first part emerged when Nadal revealed the fruits of his focus on reclaiming his clay dominance. First at Monte Carlo (where a family bereavement would have understandably upset Novak), then Rome (no excuses) and at Roland Garros (bar a passage of rain-affected play). That shook Novaks confidence and by dashing his Grand Slam dreams set him back. He's subsequently been laid low by injury but there was no dispute who was the King of Clay again.

Secondly, Federer got his man onto Wimbledon grass for the first time and won well.

These two events punctured the bubble of confidence he'd built up for sure, but more importantly showed that in both cases these two rivals had let themselves down in 2011, Nadal in particular.

Now Murray has joined the party by doing the unthinkable and outlasting the eggmans stamina.



Djokovic isn't going anywhere bad because he hasn't lost anything; it's just that his rivals have pulled their years together, and a few tight matches have gone narrowly against him when last year he pretty much got all the close ones.

There's no missing mojo; it's a myth, and does a disservice to the rivals who've shown they can recover their poise after a poor 2011. Djokovic will be an outstanding Slam candidate just as he's been since 2008, and i expect him to add to his tally, but unless Nadal fails to recover and Federer finally declines, he'll have his hands more than full.

You don't seem to like Djokovic.

Something is not right with Djokovic. I don't know what it is, it could be something intangible psychologically as a result of getting to the top, or it could be specific personal life issues affecting his perfomance.

In 2011 he did achieve a solid higher level, and it was a level higher than any player achieved in 2012. He someone managed to sustain peak physically and mental for many months (before paying the price at the end of the year) but it wasn't a fluke.

I do, I personally think that overall he's the best player on the tour in the prevailing conditions, but not by much.

I just don't think he's Superman. I think he had a crazy streak in 2011 and Nadal, for sure, let himself down. This year things haven't been so easy, and the pressure of being #1 weighed heavy.

I think that is harsh. I think the mojo is in existence.

Look no further than Federer. 2011 really saw him at his most vulnerable. The BH was misfiring and he was losing matches from winning positions Tsonga and Djokovic for example.

Djokovic has lost the attacking spark he has because he plays so passively if the FH or BH breakdown he goes to the passive stuff and uses the stamina. He isn't in free flowing mode at the moment.

Sometimes players lose touch on what they do so well and it can take time to come back. Federer's serve came back with a vengence at the back end of 2011 and into 2012.

If we're stretching mojo to simply reflect fluctuations then it becomes redundant.

I reject the idea that something meaningful is missing. I have no problem recognising that players have variations in form.

There are a few thoughts here:

1. Agree Nadal in partic. wasn't 100% last year...Fed I'm not sure what was wrong with him?
2. Djokovic's form from 2010 to 2011 changed startlingly...mental or physical change?
3. The past 4 slam finals between Nadal and Djokovic hurt Nadal physically but Djokovic mentally. He just doesnt seem as mentally strong since, its like the stress of going that deep burnt some circuits and his body doesn't subconsciously want to go back there
4. Loss of fitness last night was v.surprising....this was not the Djokovic of last year or even 2012AO. Last night was tough but nowhere near as tough as some of those bruisers with Nadal...how did the Djokovic of AO2012 play Murray for 5 hrs then come back and play Nadal for 6 hrs 40hrs later...and yet he was folding after 4hrs las night? Weird.
5. The mind can make the body (and brain) burn calories like nothing else.

I think Djokovic is struggling mentally, not physically, but one is leading to the other. My belief is that his short term wins over Nadal cost him dearly in the long term. In short, he's mentally burnt out....but not in an overtly obvious way. He's ok when situations don't demand huge mental juice but when they do he just can't go to the well like he did.

If the definition of 'mojo' doesn't include form, what are we left with? How is it quantified?

There was obviously something wrong with Novak earlier in the year. The bad temper on court, the racquet smashing, all of which was shortly followed by news of off-court problems convinces me there was an issue or issues.

I don't believe these continue to be a huge factor though. I think his problems now are more simple:

1) Lack of confidence. Presumably lost from tough clay and grass results.

2) Lack of reliability in his service game. The overall numbers are pretty good but, when it wobbles, it wobbles badly.

Or, put even more simply, he's not in top form. Decent form, but not top form. And against the best players, that means that you get beaten.

He'll have a holiday, then hit the training courts and be better in 2013.

I really don't see anything massively amiss with Djokovic. The massive heart and fighting spirit and unbelievable defence and returning is all there and his slams record this year is impressive. Basically, in slams he won Australian Open, was beaten in the French Open Final by Rafa the greatest clay courter of all-time, lost in the semi at Wimbledon against possibly the greatest grass court player of all-time and lost in five sets last night to an Andy Murray who has raised his game to a new level. So where is the massive problem?

Djokovic is a top player come what may.
I just think 2011 was not his usual standard and he's reverted to more 2010 form when he was more up and down. but perhaps that isn't surprising.

However, I still think something is awry with him...mentally...at very highest level.
For example, he was so much more affected mentally by the wind than Murray yesterday, and against Ferrer on Saturday. He just seems more brittle to me somehow.

But am more than prepared to be proved wrong, and I'm not saying he's about to fall down to #5 in the world.

IMHO the effect of this years FO final has been seriously underestimated. That match was huge.

We now know that Nadal was playing with physical problems. He did so because to lose the FO after so many important losses to Djokovic would have been devastating. If you don't believe this imagine how things would look now if Nadal had lost there. Nadal had everything to lose. But when he won it perhaps didn't feel like the huge win that it was. How difficult must that be?

Djokovic in contrast had everything to gain. A non calender but still very "grand" slam would have been the least of things. He would have a mental edge over Nadal and also over Federer (as he had beaten him in the last two key slam matches). He lost a lot in that match.

Nadal won but even without the physical problems he had been having the quick turn around between the FO and Wimbledon would have been difficult. How after such intensity do you start again so soon at zero? For Djokovic of course mentally things would have been even more difficult.

That perhaps could have been where the effect of that epic FO final ended (with both Nadal and Djokovic having a post epic match slump) if Federer hadn't taken advantage. He found himself not only holding the Wimbledon slam trophy but also regaining the number 1 ranking. To expect him to win Wimbledon again just a few weeks later was probably asking a bit much.

The top three had an epic and emotional summer. It's difficult to maintain that sort of intensity. For Nadal with physical problems it made no sense to even try.

I do think his game is strongly based on confidence and that plays a big part in his standards. Last year it was like a snowball once he started the winning streak his confidence soared and that just improved all aspects of his game and created an aura of invincibility. Towards the end of last year fatigue set in and his results suffered and this knocked that unshakable confidence and although he won the Australian Open he couldn't get that run going and so the confidence has not swollen to levels of last year.

Good point from hawkeye.

Dare I mention that missing the GS so narrowly was something Federer endured a number of times, so it's not inevitable that a player should suffer an adverse reaction.

Cmon boggy, Novak has clearly lost the ability to serve fluently (he had 70+% in Wimbledon 2011 final and for the majority of his last match was below 60%) let's not provoke Socal into a frenzy shall we he's already called suicide hotline

I think to be fair to him, last night was beastly for serving. Most would have struggled. I don't think you can judge him on that, I think he's in good form generally.
It's all small margins; he hit one wide smash in the second set that might have made the difference; last year he slapped at a return on mp and it went in. On such small margins does a great year become merely good.

It was always unlikely that Djokovic could back up such a year. Only Federer has ever managed to sustain that sort of success. Even last year Djokovic was involved in some tight matches that he managed to turn his way, by contrast it always seemed something of a cruise for Federer to dominate. Hence a slight dip by Djokovic, or a small improvement from, or slice of luck for, his rivals was always likely to bring him back to the pack. He was never that far ahead for long-term dominance to be a given.

lydian wrote:There are a few thoughts here:

1. Agree Nadal in partic. wasn't 100% last year...Fed I'm not sure what was wrong with him?
2. Djokovic's form from 2010 to 2011 changed startlingly...mental or physical change?
3. The past 4 slam finals between Nadal and Djokovic hurt Nadal physically but Djokovic mentally. He just doesnt seem as mentally strong since, its like the stress of going that deep burnt some circuits and his body doesn't subconsciously want to go back there
4. Loss of fitness last night was v.surprising....this was not the Djokovic of last year or even 2012AO. Last night was tough but nowhere near as tough as some of those bruisers with Nadal...how did the Djokovic of AO2012 play Murray for 5 hrs then come back and play Nadal for 6 hrs 40hrs later...and yet he was folding after 4hrs las night? Weird.
5. The mind can make the body (and brain) burn calories like nothing else.

I think Djokovic is struggling mentally, not physically, but one is leading to the other. My belief is that his short term wins over Nadal cost him dearly in the long term. In short, he's mentally burnt out....but not in an overtly obvious way. He's ok when situations don't demand huge mental juice but when they do he just can't go to the well like he did.

Interesting post and perspective I haven't thought about it that way. But this could be a very insightful read on the situation of course the difficulty is that none of us are privy to the exact answer. One thing I can add and I will attempt to be dispassionate is that Djokovic has not hit his highest levels of tennis as often enough and as often as he can this year. Maybe Lydian's bit of mental burnout is the issue. He is down but not by much off of last year's form. I actually think that he will get better from here and build. Progress is not always in a straight line sometimes you take two steps forward and one back. To me he is better than he has played in the last few months and I don't see it as a slight to his opponents. As a close observer this last few months has been a bit of retrenchment over what I believe he can do.

Technically speaking you overlook the vast improvement he made in his serve between 2010 and 2011 that explains a lot of the shift up for Djoko and his new higher level, the Djoko 2.0 everyone talked about. Because in 2010 he had the worst serve in the top 20 and finished ranked in the top 3. So the serve and fitness where big parts of his advancement. I think his serve despite last nights wind induced debacle has actually been pretty good and he still will build back up from this retrenchment or fall back.

I actually think Djoker is still very close to his standard 2011 form - he perhaps just hasn't quite hit the heights of a couple of the best displays. However, it is more a question of a few of the close matches going the other way. Perhaps that's a sign the confidence isn't quite there to the same extent or maybe it is just a bit of luck evening out. It's hardly a desperate situation with one title, two finals and a semi on his weakest surface in the four slams!

Fair points social. I didn't think his serve was key in beating Nadal last year though. We don't know if the slight dip is due to confidence or burn out. Time will tell.

But one thing I can't understand is....how did he play for nearly 11 gruelling hours in much warmer conditions at AO12 vs Murray then Nadal in space of 40 hrs without getting cramp and yet got tired against Murray in under 4hrs this time?

lydian wrote:
But one thing I can't understand is....how did he play for nearly 11 gruelling hours in much warmer conditions at AO12 vs Murray then Nadal in space of 40 hrs without getting cramp and yet got tired against Murray in under 4hrs this time?

At AO he was fresh at the start of the season. USO came at the end of an almost unbroken run of tennis going Olympics / Toronto / Cincy / USO, all of which he was involved in until the last day.

I also think there is a lot of merit in your mental burnout theory. After the quickfire disappointments of FO, Wimbledon and Olympics, maybe mentally he couldn't face another pressure cooker. And where the mind goes, the body follows!

I guess 99% of pros are looking at Djokovic's 2012 form and saying 'wish I could have that good a year when apparently in disappointing form'.

One slam title and two losing finals,
Two MS titles and 3 losing finals
Probably favourite for y/e #1 in the rankings.

It's not by any means a bad year, just a bit below the standards he set last year, which only the most optimistic fan would have expected him to repeat. Flick those final defeats round to being victories and he'd be having a very similar year to 2011, so he's not a million miles off.

As others have made the point, last year, and particularly from the middle of the year onwards, he was doing a good job of finding a way to win the close matches even if he wasn't playing at his very best. Since the AO, he hasn't been coming out ahead in these with anything like the consistency - these tight matches turn on a handful of points, and last year Djoko was edging these, but not so at the moment (take the first set tie break on Monday - would 2011 Djokovic have lost after Andy had given away so many set points?).

Few players would have come back from two sets down to level the match the way Djoko did in the New York final.
I think this has been an excellent year for him - retaining his AO title, reaching the finals of two other Slams and, probably, ending up the year-end number one.
Some forget just how close he came to defeat in some of those triumphs last year, with the stand-out example being the USO semi when he saved MPs. It was not as if he was smashing everyone out of sight.
The margins between the top four can, at times, be tiny. It's great that we are getting this competition at the top

sirfredperry wrote:Few players would have come back from two sets down to level the match the way Djoko did in the New York final.
I think this has been an excellent year for him - retaining his AO title, reaching the finals of two other Slams and, probably, ending up the year-end number one.
Some forget just how close he came to defeat in some of those triumphs last year, with the stand-out example being the USO semi when he saved MPs. It was not as if he was smashing everyone out of sight.
The margins between the top four can, at times, be tiny. It's great that we are getting this competition at the top

Can't argue there SFP.

I think the consensus - not unanious, but strong - is in line with my OP, that there is no missing mojo but rather small changes in the standards of the top guys, combined arguably with a few minor things going the other way (e.g. Federer making his Wimbledon semi-final appointment in 2012 but not in 2011, USO semi mps, etc).

I think that sums it up BB - a missing mojo would end up with Djoko falling out of the top 4, behind the likes of Ferrer.

Btw, I went into WH Smith's and had to buy Q, because they were missing Mojo.

I think those pointing at small shifts changing results when margins are tight are closest to the truth. Murray was very close to Djoko at the Aus Open this year - since then his form and his confidence have improved relative to Djoko's.

Look at Djoko's losses this year:

One odd one - Isner at IW

Otherwise

Tipsarevic at Madrid was understandable

The rest were to the highest class of opposition on excellent form:

Nadal x3 on clay
Federer x1 on grass x1 at fast Cincinnati (Canada/Cincinnati double has been done only 3 times - Agassi '95, Rafter '98, Roddick '03 - and Djoko was playing his 15th match in 3 weeks)
Murray x1 on grass x2 on HC
Del Potro x 1 on grass (best he's played since 2009, and he's fallen back a bit since then)

Djoko's form has dropped a bit from 2011 as it was bound to, and the others have improved. Murray always had the most scope for improvement, Nadal on clay is the best ever, Fed played some decent stuff on grass for the first time in 2 years and in good form he is the worst man you could imagine facing if you want to break your Cincinnati duck.

Djoko is not in a position to trust and believe in his form vs. his opponents to the ridiculous extent that he could last year - he's bound to feel less empowered at the bitter end of a marathon than he did last year.

Don't forget how tight margins are - if Nadal had buried that regulation forehand at the Australian Open the result may have been different.

dummy_half wrote:take the first set tie break on Monday - would 2011 Djokovic have lost after Andy had given away so many set points?

My thoughts exactly. Bizarrely, that tie break is something I take a lot of encouragement from.

In the double-faulting horror show of RG or the weird, listless performance v Fed at Wimbledon (if that wasn't an example of missing 'mojo', I don't know what is), he couldn't get near to the level of fight he showed in that tie break. Those poor performances didn't come from a problem stemming from his game, the problem was with the man himself.

On Monday, he failed to take the lifelines that Andy threw his way. The energy and intent were there though, and he was recognisably playing his normal game. He just couldn't execute his service games well enough to take the chances.

That is a technical problem and technical problems can be identified, worked on and fixed.

If a spell where his game isn't quite firing on all cylinders can yield two slam finals and a semi, there is no reason to believe the wins won't come if he can find his way back to top form again.

I think this naval gazing, where we even think he has some Technical issues as though he's plummeting down the ranking is way OTT

Fed's and Murray have improved in the last year, the former's stopped making as many errors - note when he does he pays and the latter's simply got better

So if you think that at last years US Open and this years Australian Open, Fed and Murray had good opportunities to beat him - yet he was supposedly inn 'invicible' mode, there wasn't much more of an improvement on their part needed to start beating him

I agree with BB - I mean we're getting to the stage where the crying over Nole's supposedly lost form is as bad as the stuff we got from the Fed fans in early 2009!!

On form, all 4 have shown in the last year, that they are closely matched in ability. Hence, it only takes a minor occurence in a match to affect the outcome

If Nole starts losing to Tsonga and Isner on a regular basis, I'll join in with the moping

HM Murdoch wrote:

dummy_half wrote:take the first set tie break on Monday - would 2011 Djokovic have lost after Andy had given away so many set points?

My thoughts exactly. Bizarrely, that tie break is something I take a lot of encouragement from.

In the double-faulting horror show of RG or the weird, listless performance v Fed at Wimbledon (if that wasn't an example of missing 'mojo', I don't know what is), he couldn't get near to the level of fight he showed in that tie break. Those poor performances didn't come from a problem stemming from his game, the problem was with the man himself.

On Monday, he failed to take the lifelines that Andy threw his way. The energy and intent were there though, and he was recognisably playing his normal game. He just couldn't execute his service games well enough to take the chances.

That is a technical problem and technical problems can be identified, worked on and fixed.

If a spell where his game isn't quite firing on all cylinders can yield two slam finals and a semi, there is no reason to believe the wins won't come if he can find his way back to top form again.

But you're focussing only on the moments he let himself down, not on others. In 2011 Federer also missed a regulation forehand on 2nd match point; what part of Novaks Mojo did that? At the 2012 AO Rafa missed a easy put-away in the 5th that would probably have won the match. There are more.

And Murray did the same in the final!!! They all do it occassionaly

banbrotam wrote:
If Nole starts losing to Tsonga and Isner on a regular basis, I'll join in with the moping

Isner is something ridiculous like 6-2 against top ten players this year

barrystar wrote:I think those pointing at small shifts changing results when margins are tight are closest to the truth. Murray was very close to Djoko at the Aus Open this year - since then his form and his confidence have improved relative to Djoko's.
Look at Djoko's losses this year:
One odd one - Isner at IW
Otherwise
Tipsarevic at Madrid was understandable
The rest were to the highest class of opposition on excellent form:
Nadal x3 on clay
Federer x1 on grass x1 at fast Cincinnati (Canada/Cincinnati double has been done only 3 times - Agassi '95, Rafter '98, Roddick '03 - and Djoko was playing his 15th match in 3 weeks)
Murray x1 on grass x2 on HC
Del Potro x 1 on grass (best he's played since 2009, and he's fallen back a bit since then)
Djoko's form has dropped a bit from 2011 as it was bound to, and the others have improved. Murray always had the most scope for improvement, Nadal on clay is the best ever, Fed played some decent stuff on grass for the first time in 2 years and in good form he is the worst man you could imagine facing if you want to break your Cincinnati duck.
Djoko is not in a position to trust and believe in his form vs. his opponents to the ridiculous extent that he could last year - he's bound to feel less empowered at the bitter end of a marathon than he did last year.
Don't forget how tight margins are - if Nadal had buried that regulation forehand at the Australian Open the result may have been different.

Very well said Barry

When a player is on hot streak on most cases its due to two reasons, 1] the player raised the level and the 2] the rivals dropped down from their level, and this was the exact case last year and too much is made out of that streak eventhough it was very impressive.

This year when the rivals stepped it up Djoko lagged behind thinking he doesn't have to improve any further to win them in close contest, and thats the mojo, when me, LF,BB ,Emanci [sadly left] all explained this that Djoko will be the new whipping boy among the top 4.

Djoko just couldn't withstand the pressure of being hunted from every corner once he became the no.1, even the great Rafa struggled to cope up with no.1 pressure so I see nothing special when Djoko struggled to hold onto no.1.

Djoko will come back stronger and so will he his opponent, and hence to put it in simple words Djoko never had the invincible mojo like some Djoko fans quoted and hence he never lost it, the form will be fluctuating but he will win some real good close battles again in the future.

Last but not least very good article BB

bogbrush wrote:[But you're focussing only on the moments he let himself down, not on others. In 2011 Federer also missed a regulation forehand on 2nd match point; what part of Novaks Mojo did that? At the 2012 AO Rafa missed a easy put-away in the 5th that would probably have won the match. There are more.

All those moments show is that some of his wins could easily have been a defeats. Likewise the defeat on Monday could easily have been a victory. When the margins are narrow, it doesn't take much to change the result. That's why I'm not unduly worried about how Monday went.

But surely, for margins to be narrow, both players have to be playing at similar levels? Do you not agree?

What were the narrow margins in any of the clay matches v Rafa? Apart from 8 games when Rafa lost his cool, he was all over Novak.

What were the narrow margins v Fed at Wimbledon when Novak hits twice as many unforced errors as Fed and it's over in 2hrs 19mins?

For the clay and grass season, Novak was comprehensively beaten by the top guys. Why had a previously narrow gap become a chasm?

None of us think Novak lost his "mojo" because he got beaten. We think he lost it because, for a significant period, his performances against the top guys were terrible.

1. He'd never played Federer on Grass so we have no previous, plus it became indoors Wimbledon and we know what that means....

2. He'd never pushed Nadal seriously at RG before.

I can't see the basis for proving a decline there.

Definitions of mojo
1) A magic spell, hex or charm

bogbrush wrote:It's all small margins; he hit one wide smash in the second set that might have made the difference; last year he slapped at a return on mp and it went in.

You've said a number of times that last year the luck went Novak's way, this year it hasn't.

2) Self-confidence, Self-assuredness. As in basis for belief in ones self in a situation.

bogbrush wrote:That shook Novaks confidence and by dashing his Grand Slam dreams set him back

3) ability to bounce back from a debilitating trauma and negative attitude

bogbrush wrote:Novaks success in not tripping up early is masking the issues; the point of this article was that he's only won three events this year

2011: Loses at RG. Wins Wimbledon. Wins USO
2012: Loses Monte Carlo, loses Madrid, loses Rome, loses at RG, loses at Wimbledon, loses at Olympics, loses at USO.

Sources: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mojo
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=mojo

How is this anything but an open and shut case? He lost his 'mojo' for a large part of 2012!

May be you are right HMM , but the Mojo mainly exisited as luck.
There is a saying fortune favours brave, in 2011 Djoko was more than brave enough to hold the bull by its horns and the Goat by its head, but this year he neither had the game or luck to bring the rivals down.

In USO he gave everything but still Murray brought him down, I don't see Djoko could have played any better in the finals and to say Djoko 2011 would have won this final would be like Mouse eat Cats.

I don't think Djokovic has uttered these words yet....

Spoiler:

As I said earlier, he' probably still fatigued by last year.