300 : The Coronation is done

First topic message reminder :

Not the prequel to Gerald Butler and his gang of CGI-enhanced six-pack mates, but the run to the extraordinary achievement of spending 300 weeks as the #1 ranked tennis player.

It's certain that Federer will reach 299, and supporters of the Swiss maestro will be wary having seen him stall unexpectedly one week short of Pete Sampras's record in 2010, but he needs only a modest showing to secure 300 even assuming Djokovic cleans up China and Shanghai.

300 would matter because it would put clear water between his record and those of Connors, Lendl and Sampras. If we don't recognise the symbolic effect of these milestones then a lot of cricket folklore ceases to exist, and for Federer to become the first to raise his bat for a triple century is every bit as big as reaching similar uncharted territory in that sport.

It's especially impressive given he came back, at 31, in the face of the peaks of Nadal, Djokovic and Murray and proved over a rolling year to be the best out there. It's helped cement his legacy as the GOAT by dismissing the arguments that his reputation was built on weaker rivals; quite obviously were he at his physical peak he'd be an even greater threat today and would reasonably be expected to dominate.

So, without taking it for granted, I'm going to keep a close eye on the countdown to this historic record as he pushes the limits of tennis achievement even further out of the stratosphere. This is more than his supporters could have hoped, to be honest, but he seems to have believed he would do it. I wonder what else he has in mind?

Not sure about the gruelling year for Federer, he did lose quarters at US Open then had some weeks off then lost semis and Shanghai he ought to have something left in the tank.

I think it's more the consecutive tournaments that's the issue.

I see what you mean Barry, I rate Fed's chances as slim at the moment but increasing if he wins Basel and going up further if he does very well in Paris. Let's not forget that all the 3 remaining tournaments are indoors so yes they're 15 matches but they're all indoors and as we saw at Wimbledon, even in a BO5 sets matches, if it's indoors, Federer can still win. He has a lot of matches under his belt but he has had a decent break (even with Shanghai).

We've discusssed your point about Djokovic being injuried last year ad nausea socal, and as I've said before, the fact Djokovic took part in Basel, Paris and WTF doesn't suggest he was still injured as you spin it. If he was injured, why play those 3 tournaments? Are you saying Djokovic is stupid enough or greedy enough to play them when he'd already locked up the No.1 spot? He may not have been in top form, but please stop telling everyone he was injured, he wasn't. A top player who was actually injured wouldn't risk playing tournaments and aggravating an injury, ask Nadal if you need verification of that.

Also, you seem to keep going on about Djokovic's Paris win in 2009, yes, it does show Djokovic can win indoor hardcourt events (never been in dispute) but apart from last year when he reached the quarters in Paris (and his win in 2009), every other occasion he's been knocked out in R3 or earlier and not just a few times but 5! Let's be honest, yes, he has won Paris but overall, his record hasn't been that good in Paris and the same goes for WTF. That's the only reason why I've refrained from saying Djokovic has locked up the Year End No.1. It's more than possible that Djokovic will make a good run again (for the first time in year) @ Paris and WTF and thus seal the Year End No.1 regardless of Fed's results but all I'd like to say is that it's not a done deal by any means simply because of Djokovic's overall indoor past performances. He probably will, but can you stop perpetuating the myth of an injured Djokovic during Basel/Paris/WTF, very few of us believe it anymore.

Henman Bill wrote:Not sure about the gruelling year for Federer, he did lose quarters at US Open then had some weeks off then lost semis and Shanghai he ought to have something left in the tank.

I think it's more the consecutive tournaments that's the issue.

Agreed. As I said in my previous post, the indoor conditions is a big help for him so yes, it's 15 matches but because it's all indoors, he should be able to turn in some good finishes which hopefully will keep in close to Djokovic in the Year End stakes and if he's lucky.....overtake him (but I don't count on it)!

barrystar wrote:

luciusmann wrote:I think it's reasonable to say (with Fed's record @ Basel) that he's likely to win it, even if Murray is entering. However, as other posters have rightly pointed out, although that closes the gap to 1, 655, that's still a big gap. Now a good performance in Paris can narrow the gap, but really, only winning it again would keep Fed in real contention (regardless of how well Djokovic does) but clearly if Djokovic does badly in Paris (as he often has) then Fed makes the semis or better, than it can reduce Djokovic's lead but I still think it would be difficult for Fed to overtake Djokovic in the battle for Y.E. No.1.

I think we'll have a better idea once Paris gets under way because we'll know if Fed wins Basel by then. But it's clear that if Fed doesn't win Basel, then he's pretty much out of the running. I still think it's a two horse race and Fed could still snatch the Year End No.1 but I put his chances at 30%, rising slightly to 35% if he wins Basel, and to 50% if he wins Paris. For Fed to stand a chance, he's got to cut Djokovic's lead to 1, 000 or less, because then Djokovic probably needs more than one or two wins @ the WTF.

I agree that Fed's got to win Basel, but even if he does his chances are super slim.

If Djoko makes the Paris SF and wins 2 RR matches at the WTF he has 760 points without having to beat Murray - that is very very likely on current form. Such a sequence would require 31-yr-old Fed to win every single match he plays over the next 3 weeks (15) including in all probability needing to beat Murray and/or Djokovic between 4 and 6 times - i.e. assuming they make their seedings the best case scenario is that Murray is in Djoko's half for Paris and in Djoko's group for WTF.

Of course, Djoko could make it absolutely sure by winning Paris for a second time or making the Paris final (even losing to Fed) and winning 2 RR matches at the WTF.

2012 feels very different for Fed to 2010 and 2011. In those years he was hungry with lots to prove and came to his best surface fresh with not many matches under his belt by comparison. This year he's already played 73 matches, he's a year older, and he's had a far more gruelling year to date.

Good post I think that Fed will fight for the number 1 but i really can't see him finishing with 15 straight wins in a row with Murray and Djoko in the field. Both of these younger guys look pretty primed to me.

Federes done with #1 now, this article was all about passing the milestone, which he has. Once it goes this time he'll not have it again, unless something mad happens at the upcoming Australian Open.

It'll be a long time before we see it matched.

B'star. D'you think the top three will ALL play Paris, coming as it does this year straight before the WTF (great initials those!) ? Murray has nothing to defend at the O2 and could gain huge chunks of points. Say Murray does well at Basel he might want to skip Paris. Fed has little option but to play all three events while Djoko may like to keep his powder dry for the 02, too.
Incidentally, will be going to the 02 on the Wednesday evening. Was lucky enough to see Fed's demolition of Rafa there last year. No doubt a few of our esteemed posters will be turning up in London as well.

Wish I was sfp - I just thought I would be a little peeved if I didn't see Fed because contrary to whatever he says, I do wonder if this might not be the last opportunity to see him play there. To guarantee doing so, I would have to invest in four sessions which I just can't justify atm unless I sit with the gods and then the players are miles below, albeit the atmosphere is brilliant.

I'm opting for the sofa, live pause and all other comforts, and will probably kick myself for not making more of an effort!

TP- you never know but I think Fed will be at the WTF in 2013. He gave a newspaper interview some time ago - before he got back to number one, I think - when he said that his 2013 schedule was almost finalised and that 2014 was a possibility.
He's had such a good 2012 that he's bound to be high in the rankings for a good few weeks into next year and that should be make life easier for him.
I think it'll be unlikely he will suddenly stop playing with little warning. He's enough of a showman to want a sort of "farewell tour".

@HB, I agree that 3-weeks in a row is more significant than Fed's year so far given that he's had a decent break since the USO, but not wholly irrelevant.

@SFP, I don't see why Djoko would not play Paris - he played Canada and Cincinnati back-to-back and did OK in both of them. He may not 'bust a gut' to win Paris, but he'd be a fool if he relied upon WTF for all the points he needs. He can only get 600 in the group stage there and he might then face a charging Fed (or Murray) in the SF with #1 on the line. Why take that risk?

The worst that is likely to happen at Paris is that he loses to Murray (or A. N. Other) in the SF and takes 360 more points to the WTF. Anything better than that and he begins to make the WTF relatively insignificant to close to irrelevant in the #1 race.

I saw Fed at the world tour finals as well beating Nadal. Man, that was as impressive a 1 hour tennis match as we'll ever see!

Got a ticket again this year, might add one more for the same day, till dithering on that due to work commitments.

Djokovic was asked at Shanghai about his priorities for the year and he said year end no 1, I think he will be in Paris and I see him making at least quarter or semi there.