Predictions for how the big 4 will stack up next year

While this year's number one ranking is still very much in contention I thought it would be interesting to make some predictions on which of the big 4 would step up and which would fall off for next year. The interesting thing is that you could make a well reasoned argument for any one of the big 4 being number 1 next year.

Federer: Despite this years success I have a feeling that Roger will be the biggest longshot to finish number 1 next year simply on his age and on how much tennis he has played in 2012. His form has as usual been impeccable he shows little or no signs of fading away just yet. This summer he has gone from strength to strength winning wimby, silvering in the olympics, winning cincy and then losing to an inspired berdy in the quarters of the US. You have to think playing the busiest schedule of any of the top 4 in 2012 so far and being the oldest will show up even for Federer in 2013.

Nadal: He hasn't burned up the tour off the clay since 2010 in terms of winning tournaments on hardcourt or grass. And questions surround his ability to finish a whole season to adequately compete for the year end #1. However even Nadal at 80 percent could still win the french. Furthermore coming off the longest rest he has had in years might be just what the doctor ordered for Nadal's game. After he came back from injury in 2010 his body and game seemed rejuvenated so I have feeling Nadal will be back strong.

Murray: Things look on the up swing for murray. The forehand, second serve, and belief seem better than they have ever been. He finally has won a slam and that can only help his game and outlook in 2013. But now questions remain as to how murray will handle the expectations and target that is on your back when you become a grandslam champion.

Novak: Well there is no way to sugarcoat it so far the middle of 2012 has been poor for Djokovic he has failed in all 3 major events he has played in and even more worrying has a 5 match losing streak to the other top 4. Yet despite this he could still very well be the year end number 1, this shows the potential I think for a rebound in 2013. It will be crucial for his confidence to shake off the poor middle part of the year and finish the year this year as #1. Still he is still in his peak and with just a notch better play next year should stand to have another big season.

Predictions:

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Nadal
4. Federer

Australian Open: Del Potro
French Open: Nadal
Wimbledon: Murray
US Open: Djokovic

How do you think the top seeds will finish out CAS? I am leaning towards seeing murray and djoko surpass fedal.

I have a feeling Murray will never reach number 1, he will always be a step behind on clay. I think Novak will finish the year number 1, Murray 2, Nadal 3, Del Potro 4 and Federer 5, I think this year Federer gave everything so i think he will slip a lot next year.

Yes I think Federer will start to slip alot more next year...if nothing else because whats his motivation now?

Djokovic likely to end up ahead as I dont think Nadal will gain enough traction early in the year to mount a challenge for #1. Infact I see Murray finishing ahead of Nadal.

In terms of slams...I'm going for Djokovic for 2, Nadal for 1, Murray for 1.

The question is, is there anyone out there to challenge them? No, not really...only Berdych IMO...but he needs good weather and a kind draw.

Andy will win everything, including all the clay events

Sorry, I'm getting a bit excited as I'm off on my hols next week!!!

Seriously, I'll predict now what won't happen. Rafa won't win a Slam

Australia - Novak. The only reason I go against Andy is that nobody (in the last 30-odd years) has managed to win their first two slams at consecutive events

French - Novak

Wimbledon - Andy

US Open - Roger and his last hurrah!!!

O2 - Andy

Year end Ranking. Novak 1, Andy 2, Roger 3, Nadal 4, Del Potro 5, Raonic 6

Yes. I expect Raonic to learn from his US Open defeat. I greatly admired his attitude during that match and his post match press conference

Note, I'm usually wrong

CAS wrote:I have a feeling Murray will never reach number 1, he will always be a step behind on clay. I think Novak will finish the year number 1, Murray 2, Nadal 3, Del Potro 4 and Federer 5, I think this year Federer gave everything so i think he will slip a lot next year.

CAS
Don't entirely agree with you regarding Murray's chance of #1, although it will depend on 2 things:
1 - Him having another clay season like 2011, where he was getting to more SFs of the clay Masters and RG, so minimising the points he drops. This year he does seem to have fallen back a bit, although it was more general poor form through spring this season.
2 - Nadal coming back and remaining the clay court god for a couple of seasons, stopping Djokovic building too much of a lead (Djoko and Murray are close on hard, Andy marginally better on faster indoor courts and grass, but Djoko clearly better on clay)

banbrotam wrote:...The only reason I go against Andy is that nobody (in the last 30-odd years) has managed to win their first two slams at consecutive events

I can find some way back. 1950 Budge Patty (RG and W), 1953 Rosewall (AO and RG), 1956 Hoad (AO, RG and W). I have no recent examples, in the last 60+ years.

I would be surprised if there is one.

laverfan wrote:

banbrotam wrote:...The only reason I go against Andy is that nobody (in the last 30-odd years) has managed to win their first two slams at consecutive events

I can find some way back. 1950 Budge Patty (RG and W), 1953 Rosewall (AO and RG), 1956 Hoad (AO, RG and W). I have no recent examples, in the last 60+ years.

I would be surprised if there is one.

It's an amazing stat. But I supposed not too surprising, given that a lot of players win their first Slam at a young age and are hence less likely to be able to handle their biggest victory.

I was very surprised though when Roger didn't win the US Open in 2003

Banbro the one good thing Murray has going for him is that I think he has won so many other big events and beaten the top guys so many times that he will be able to effectively avoid having a sophmore slump so to speak after his first slam victory. Where as when Novak won his first one he was 20 years old and still needed to grow and mature more as a person.

I am also not quite sold on Nadal, however the last time he had a long extended break in 09 after the RG he came back like monster in 2010 but I think the circumstances are different now with two young grandslam champs in murray and Djoko standing in his way.

It seems what a lot of posters are saying is that this year will be the last hurrah so to speak for the fedal partnership at the top of the rankings and in being the dominant pair in the sport. I tend to agree with that prediction.

We mustn't discount Roger though - if he gets a kind draw and doesn't expend too much energy to the SF's and it's fast and still conditions - he remains favourite in my book

We mustn't discount Roger though - if he gets a kind draw

He hasn't had a kind draw since he won French Open, and even in that he was nearly beaten by Haas and Delpo.

One thing we can be sure of is that Federer has never lost to a Wawrinka or Verdasco type player in the slams, like a certain Scot.

Del Potro will win the US next year, obviously we don't know when Nadal is going to be back so can't really comment on him. Djokovic is still playing really well and he likes playing in the heat in Australia so I expect him to win. I think Roger will win the french one more time and I think he will if Nadal is not at his peak. Murray will win Wimbledon in front of his home crowd. Also Raonic will be a big contender in years to come if he improves his footwork

1.Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4.Del Potro
5. Nadal
6. Raonic

Wow everyone is very negative of Nadal's chances and very positive on Raonic. For my money I don't see Raonic being a 5 or 6 type of player yet but I think next year he will break into the top ten. He has to get better at returning serve if you can't return well you will have a hard time winning a slam in today's game and right now his return is behind the rest of his game. TOC del po's fortunes should certainly be considered as well can he break into the top 4, if anyone is going to do it he looks most likely. The one thing that worries me about Del Po is that he hasn't beaten a top 4 guy in quite some time. And in particular the two young lead dogs Djoko and Murray have for the most part had their way with him in most of the big matches. Novak I think has two losses against seven or 8 wins and Murray's h2h I believe is even more lopsided.

I think Murray's 5-1 against Del Potro with the only loss being on clay. I totally agree with socal re Raonic, just not sure what everyone sees in him aside from that massive serve. His FH's OK, his BH utter rubbish, his net skills not great, his movement the same, etc.

Raonic is overrated, movement is pure teak.

Mad for Chelsea wrote:I think Murray's 5-1 against Del Potro with the only loss being on clay. I totally agree with socal re Raonic, just not sure what everyone sees in him aside from that massive serve. His FH's OK, his BH utter rubbish, his net skills not great, his movement the same, etc.

Well i wouldn't go as far as lydian and MFC, his forehand is pretty great and his volleys are good as well. But the movement, backhand, and return need work. Even his backhand when he gets of hold of one he really gives it a ride but needs more variety and consistency. His return is just awful, Del Po is the only one of the super tall guys who manages to be a good returner the rest of them are just plain awful in this area. Raonic is still not ready and a bit overrated at this stage but I think overrall he is not as technically poor as you see it MFC.

I think people forget Berdych is 6'5, thats the same height as Raonic and just an inch shorter than Del Po and he moves brilliantly. The only thing really missing from him is upstairs in my opinion, he has random bad losses that just aren't acceptable but when his game is on its frightening.

Berdych doesn't move great although his rise to a top 8 player over the last couple of years has even built on significantly improving that aspect. Cilic is the guy who really looks like the complete player of the big guys but somehow he doesn't seem to quite have the raw power that would be expected of a guy 6"6.

I think Berdy is a much better athlete than Raonic, plus his FH and BH are a lot better.

socal, while I may have gone overboard on Raonic, I just don't see anything there that screams "top five potential" to me. I wouldn't describe his forehand as "pretty great", sure he gives it a decent slap but doesn't dominate behind it enough IMO.

His BH is just downright poor IMO, it's flaky and lacks penetration. Worryingly, instead of working on improving it, his tactic in recent times seems based around tryint to hit as few as possible, so he finds himself playing FHs from ridiculous areas of the court (and not always aggressive FHs, far from it).

I'm not saying categorically he won't make it to the upper echelons, but right now I don't see what he's got that'll take him past Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga for instance. A big (alright huge) serve only takes you so far, and I feel Murray really exposed his limitations at the US Open (he served really well in that match but was completely outclassed).

Raonic is good enough to get to No.6 in the world, simply because Ferrer is getting older, Tsonga mentally goes la la for three months a year, Berdy similar and then that forehand becomes good enough to fool the rest

However, he is indeed a million miles away from the Top 4

CAS wrote:I think people forget Berdych is 6'5, thats the same height as Raonic and just an inch shorter than Del Po and he moves brilliantly. The only thing really missing from him is upstairs in my opinion, he has random bad losses that just aren't acceptable but when his game is on its frightening.

He moves "brilliantly" in comparison to those two. However, in comparioson to Novak and Andy, who incidentally are younger than him, he's in the The Championship to their Premier League

yeah I think I got carried away with that! I did mean brilliantly for someone 6'5

I have to ammend something I said earlier for his size Raonic isn't a bad mover and neither is berdy or Del po. For men close to two meters in height they move exceptionally well but of course Djoko and murray are in another ball game.

The forehand inside out is great on Raonic and the cross is pretty good the down line forehand of his stinks. He needs to improve both his forehand and backhand up the line, his slice backhad, and return. In these areas he is way behind where he needs to be. But the one two punch of big serve and inside out forehand is there in spades.

Cilic to me has too spiny of a serve for a guy 6'6 and seems to fail to do enough damage with it. Also I don't like his forehand, kind of looks like an old school forehand like an updated connors I think it is too flat and prone to error under pressure. The problem with his serve I think is that he gets too far sideways if not as far sideways as Mac maybe an earlier version of agassi. His big advantage at being 6'6 is being able to hit down on the serve flat and his first serve action seems to negate this advantage.

I think #1 & #2 will be shared between Djoko and Murray, and I think that the odds are that one of Fed/Nadal will finish the year outside the top 4.

I also think Djoko and Murray should get at least two slams between them.

barrystar wrote:I think #1 & #2 will be shared between Djoko and Murray, and I think that the odds are that one of Fed/Nadal will finish the year outside the top 4.

I also think Djoko and Murray should get at least two slams between them.

Most people seem to feel nadal will finish out of the money next season. But I guess it is hypothetically possible that both could have poor years. I have feeling Nadal will come back much better for the layoff. I also see the future being dominated by a Djoko and murray duopoly

I don't see much change really. Nadal well it is a case of how his body holds up. For the rest of the field to make any real impact on the top 4 will require a shocking decline in form.

I think that Del Po will threaten the top 4 next year he has a legitimate shot of grabbing one of the hardcourt slams and would be a good darkhorse in the other two slams on natural surfaces.

I am calling it here, next season will be the year that the next group of guys and some youngsters make a much bigger splash. Now that doesn't mean that the top 4 guys aren't going to dominate in particular I think Murray and Djoko will be even tougher than they are now. Still I wouldn't be surprised if Del Po, Tsonga, Berdy, and Raonic all didn't go on to have very big seasons. Anyone have any news on Soderling?

socal1976 wrote:I think that Del Po will threaten the top 4 next year he has a legitimate shot of grabbing one of the hardcourt slams and would be a good darkhorse in the other two slams on natural surfaces.

You could be right but I haven't seen anything in the last three years that convinces me that Del Potro will be the threat to the top 4 that he once promised. He has appalling H2Hs against the two of the top 4 that arguably have the longest futures, especially on hard courts. He only has one hard court victory over either of them and that came with a Djokovic retirement. If they are on form, they can beat him.

That is del po's big stumbling block for the future carrie I mentioned it myself earlier i that he doesn't seem to do particularly well against Murray and Djoko the two players that are most likely going to lead the future charge, especially on hardcourts. As you say I think he has two maybe 3 wins against Novak with one of them being a match Novak was carried off the court due to injury, against 7 or 8 losses. And his head to head against murray I think off the top of my head is even worse.

socal1976 wrote:That is del po's big stumbling block for the future carrie I mentioned it myself earlier i that he doesn't seem to do particularly well against Murray and Djoko the two players that are most likely going to lead the future charge, especially on hardcourts. As you say I think he has two maybe 3 wins against Novak with one of them being a match Novak was carried off the court due to injury, against 7 or 8 losses. And his head to head against murray I think off the top of my head is even worse.

Exactly, he is a good player but doesn't have the movement or variety to challenge either of these players, especially on hard courts. H2H v Djoko 2-6 (I grass, I hc retirement), v Murray 1-5 with the one win on clay. Also, he may run into some rather large Federer/Nadal shaped obstacles on natural surfaces for some time to come yet.

Yeah if he doesn't change that 3-11 number against Murrovic he isn't going to be able to win many more major honors in the future. But I think Del Po will continue to develop. Despite what many people say players do continue to grow and develop and change even after having been on the tour for many years. Del Po needs to work on his variety and feel if he can do that I think he may still be able to challenge the other two.

You could be right Socal. Will be enjoyable to watch anyway

Hard to say, I would put Djokovic as most likely year end #1 in 2013 but the others are really hard to separate.

I think if Nadal stays fully fit and plays all the main tournaments without injury he could finish ahead of Murray and Federer with the head to head wins he can get against those players. I'll say #2 Nadal.

Murray, could kick on a touch but won't suddenly become the goat. I'll say #3.

Federer I'll say #4 although could do better.

I think Raonic will move well into the top ten by year end 2013.

HB - If Rafa was to stay fıt throughout 2013 you would probably have to put hım as one rather than two. The key word here ıs 'throughout' as ıts been rare for hım to go through a season wıthout some ınjury dısruptıon. 09 and 12 have been partıcularly unfortunate for hım and he has been unable to battle thıs last half-year wıth a newly-confıdent Murray and a resurgent Fed.
The safe bet ıs to reckon Murray and Djoko wıll make up half of the top four ın 2013. If Rafa ıs fıt and ıf Fed stıll has the appetıte/legs then they should make up the other two top four places.
As for those who mıght get ın - Berdych and Tsonga are possıbılıtıes plus Raonıc and - ıf fıt (I see he doesn't seem to be around at the monent) - del Potro.
Outsıde bet? Nıshıkorı.

I see Murray having a great 2013, I see him winning two of the Australian Open/Wimbledon and US Open, beating Djokovic, Federer and Nadal en route and being world number 1.

Djokovic will win a major, the one Murray doesn't win and end number 2, I think Djokovic will win the most Masters 1000 events.

Nadal will still win the French Open and other clay events but not feature as much on hard courts, I see Murray and Djokovic beating him regularly on hard courts. Will end number 3.

Federer will still make the later stages of Grand Slam, maybe the Wimbledon final but will lose to Murray, Djokovic and Nadal more often than he beats them. Will finish at 4 in the world.

socal1976 wrote:Wow everyone is very negative of Nadal's chances and very positive on Raonic. For my money I don't see Raonic being a 5 or 6 type of player yet but I think next year he will break into the top ten. He has to get better at returning serve if you can't return well you will have a hard time winning a slam in today's game and right now his return is behind the rest of his game. TOC del po's fortunes should certainly be considered as well can he break into the top 4, if anyone is going to do it he looks most likely. The one thing that worries me about Del Po is that he hasn't beaten a top 4 guy in quite some time. And in particular the two young lead dogs Djoko and Murray have for the most part had their way with him in most of the big matches. Novak I think has two losses against seven or 8 wins and Murray's h2h I believe is even more lopsided.

Not me socal.. when (not if) Rafa is back on form I cannot see Raonic being a big threat to Rafa. certainly the big serve will not be the threat. sorry but Im not sold on Raonic at the moment and Im prepared to eat my sombrero if Im wrong..He will need to be a bit faster around the court Rafa will have more problems with Andy and Novak

How I see next year:

Novak-#1
Andy-#2
Rafa-#3
fed-#4

The big 4 is going to have one more big year in my opinion if all the requisite players remain relatively healthy. I think Novak is finishng the year strong so this is a good indication for next year. I like Rafa's decision to limit his exposure early on to the hardcourts by going to latin america in the early part of the year.