When do you think Federer will retire ??

It is a question that Im sure has crossed everyone´s minds whether you be a a fan of Rogers or not.
Im not but that does not exclude me from wondering how the game will be after he makes the decision to hang up his racket and concentrate on family life.. at least in the short term. For sure, as we have seen by Nadal´s absence, it will leave a big hole in the sport that no other player can fill. But it is an inevitability that cannot be ignored. Here is an article that is a bit thought provoking

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1358275-roger-federer-why-age-has-ended-his-run-as-tennis-greatest

Basel, 2014.

I think it won't have a time scale on it just now for Roger. When he stops reaching slam semis/finals regularly he will call it a day. I will opt for WTF 2014. I don't think it will be any sooner than that.

Really ? Lydian as long as that.?. what makes you think he will wait that long

I had the impression from the last interview I read that he needed this holiday because essentially he was "tired". In what sense that was meant Im not sure. But that he required time away with his family to reassess his situation. Leading me to believe that his retirement may not be in the too distant future.

When he drops out of the top 4.

The interview might have meant that he wanted to reassess whether to aggressively chase the year end No 1 at the expense of 2013 because, of course, like Tsonga, Wozniacki etc he has signed up to play in some exhibitions in South America. I guess he is reassessing his priorities in his tennis year as much as anything else.

I agree with TSJ that I don't see him hanging around for long when he drops out of the top 4 - I can't imagine it would be much fun if he began to be duffed up on a regular basis by those outside the elite when he has had such a stellar career.

I hope he plays as long as he loves it because Federer loose and in full flight is one of the finest sights in sport, imo, and he has been a tremendous champion in the way he has played the game.

Well yes I agree with that but on the other hand with so much less to achieve will he lose the momentum as the body becomes more tired. He has alluded a couple of times in recent matches of having lost concentration .. in consequence losing one or two sets when he would not have done in the past. I just hope he goes when the crowd are crying for more.. the only befitting way for a GOAT to go imo.. I always think that Agassi´s retirement was a memorable one.

Its hard to imagine what must motivate a man to continue plugging away when he's amassed just about every title there is, broken most records, and has 100's millions in the bank. And yet here he is.

I think he'll do "ok" in 2013...then struggle in 2014 like Sampras did in 2002. I hope he can get a big send off like Sampras did but that rarely happens. I chose Basel as thats his home town...and where it all started for him too (I think)...if I'm honest I'm not sure he'll be top 8 by then so may not qualify for the WTF.

There will be a huge send off by the crowd whenever he goes because of what he has achieved and because he is still one of the most, if not the most, popular modern player. He plays a game the like of which we are very unlikely to see again unless conditions change, and not only tennis fans but ardent sports fans appreciate that and recognise that he has an unassailable standing in the sport, like Ali did in his, or Bolt or Lewis.

I wouldn't mind betting that he will play a few select exhibitions to say goodbye to the crowd.

The article in the OP's link is a good read. Some of the Bleacher Report stuff can be pretty strange (in fact very strange....) but in that particular piece I can find little to disagree with.

For a couple of years now I've been saying he will call it a day sometime in 2013, so not long now perhaps.

His recent resurgence as evidenced by this season's outstanding W/L ratio, a seventh Wimby crown, and - most impressive of all - the return to World Number One, could well motivate him to continue into 2014. But I don't see him playing on the main Tour beyond that.

The key determining factors IMO are likely to be a combination of changed priorities, specifically the pull of family life as the girls start school and the inevitable reality that even he cannot forever maintain the same near-unique consistency that has seen him make the business end of every Slam for almost ten years.

I think his South American exho tour this December signifies the first stage of a gradual wind-down.

I think he was hoping to finish this year No.1. Olympic Gold and the USO-
As each year passess the hill gets steeper and its whether he has it in him to grind it out... or will it be "hey what the heck do I need another trophy for anyways"
Be interesting to see what his mindset is when he returns to the court.

Pardon the pun, but when he's had enough

Of course the Olympic gold would have been wonderful, and I am sure he would love to have achieved that but I don't know, and nor does anyone else, whether by doing so he would have felt that he had accomplished it all. As it is, he has an olympic gold, albeit in doubles and a silver in singles at the age of nearly 31 than not even his most optimistic fan was expecting at various points of this year, and which I was pleased to read that he felt he had 'won' rather than collected as consolation prize.

I don't think that any of us think like elite athletes. As lydian asks - what drives Federer now, what drives Nadal back to more attrition on the courts when he could rest easily on his laurels? What keeps the hope burning bright in Hewitt with his battered body, or lovely Tommy Haas battling back from injury? The answer is, I guess, that they don't easily rest - they look forward and not back all the time - they are competitive animals. If we understood them, we probably would be doing something similar!

Federer has generally played certain cards close to his chest and your question has been asked monotonously by the media since that painful defeat at AO 2009, even in some places after W 2008 - all those who genuinely love sport (because he has, like Nadal, a wider importance than just as a great tennis player - actually so do Murray and Djokovic because of what they mean and represent to their respective countries) must just enjoy him while he is still playing beautifully at times and not wish the inevitable to come and quicker than it will do.

I think he has nothing left to prove, that he is looking more at peace with himself after losses and that he will pick the right time to go. He is an intelligent analyst of his own game (as well as others lol) - he talks of understanding what is realistic and achievable ,and he will have good counsel - he won't limp on.

legend just seen yours as about to post lol

mmm I think that as with most players who picked up a racket at the tender age of 4yrs or so .. they no nothing else and the game becomes a way of life rather than just earning a living. Difficult when you no no other way and all the money they have cannot buy a substitute to the very thing they love and have dedicated their lives to. Cant be easy to choose a right time unless its that injury side-lines you.

The 'right time' is likely to be a very subjective concept.

Good points all. The competitive flame that burns deep inside the core of these guys acts as a very powerful drug. Like heavyweight boxers coming back for one last big shot these guys often dont know when to hang their boots up...they just want to keep playing and competiting, tennis has defined their lives, defined who they are aas people and its probably a rather scary thought to have their modus operandi stripped from them...leaving them as mere ordinary "civilians" amongst us. Out on the court they are what they're trained to be from the age of 4-5-6-7 onwards...fighting and competing is all they've known - how can these guys ever replicate some of the things they have experienced on court elsewhere? How do you replicate the year in, year out conditioned response of win-lose-win-lose...fight to the death...we can only imagine what it must be like to be a top pro player and live the life they do...where everything they do comes down to simply winning or losing. Its a very black or white existence...simple in some respects. But it defines all they do, it drives them on.

And this is maybe what keeps Federer going...the fear of not doing it anymore. Sure he's a family man and will love more time with his kids, but you;re a long time retired and his narcissistic side loves the attention out there, plus the rush and heat of being simply in battle.

So he'll keep going until he knows he's not able to battle anymore but most guys tend to go past the point of their peak...will Federer know when is the right time or will the drug keep pulling him back for that one last (fix) tournament. We'll see.

He will be number 1 at the end of next year.

He'll retire in Rio 2016 IMO.

I admire your optimism IMBL he will be 35 wow !!! cant see it myself

time please wrote: .................................................................................................................The answer is, I guess, that they don't easily rest - they look forward and not back all the time - they are competitive animals. If we understood them, we probably would be doing something similar!
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I agree 100% (although I'd add that to do "something similar" we might - in addition to understanding them - also need a certain amount of ability and innate talent ...... )

The essential difficulty for anyone in professional sport making their decision on just when to call it a day (not least those who have reached who have tasted life at the very summit) is the knowledge that retirement lasts for a long time. The years that follow can bring all the material comforts and simple pleasures one could ever wish for and perhaps a whole raft of many exciting new ventures too. BUT ..... there is surely nothing which will quite replicate the unique thrill + adrenalin rush that comes from past triumphs (and perhaps from glorious defeats too) in the biggest battles in the biggest events on the biggest stages of the world.

(lydian - I see you've stolen a fair bit of my thunder there but FWIW I posted anyway .....!)

IMBL : I'm very tempted to bet good money against you on Rio ..... I know RF himself has talked about it but I really can't see it. (mind you ...... I couldn't see him regaining Number One aged 31 surrounded by the (relatively) youthful Rafa, Novak and Andy M. But it's happened.)

I think 2013 will be very interesting. The four will all be there but what position on the ladder remains to be seen. I cant foresee any big surprises in store but
"its a funny old game"

I think he's got more in him but the key is having some more achievable objectives. Without those he'd drift.

In 2012 he had #1 (which not many would have called "achieveable"!) and a Slam or two. I desperately hope he wins at least a match in Shanghai to get the triple century of weeks at #1 and really after that there's not much more to do rankings-wise.

My guess is his one great aim left may be to become the only 8-times winner of Wimbledon, passing Pete and even the challenge round era of Renshaw. That is (i) massive, and (ii) achievable.

After that I really can't see anything except 20 Slams, but that may stretch the definition of achievable.

I think once he get to the point where he can't win a slam and there is a player who gets a streak of victories against him and he can't get one, on any surface, then that could be the time he might decide to leave. I can't see him doing a Hewitt or Roddick and playing on ranked outside the top 10.

It could be anywhere from 2013 to 2016 that he goes, and I think it's hard for us to say. I would punt for 2014.

I do wonder if he would be tempted to try and reduced schedule for a couple of years in 2014-2015 and spend more time with family and resting.

Something like this can work.

e.g. Australian Open (no warm up tournaments before)
Indian Wells
Miami (but skip it if reaches Indian Wells final)
Madrid
Rome
Paris
Halle (but skip it if reaches the Paris semi or final)
Wimbledon
Canada
Cincinatti (but skip it if he reaches Canada final)
US Open
Basle
World Tour Finals

In the missed periods he could still do practice sessions and fitness sessions at home geared towards the next tournament but not as tiring as playing a whole tournament.

Just 10-12 tournaments per year. I think he has an exemption that allows him to skip a few masters, or even all of them.

And you can easily play your way into a slam if you're as good as Federer.

Henman Bill wrote:I think once he get to the point where he can't win a slam and there is a player who gets a streak of victories against him and he can't get one, on any surface, then that could be the time he might decide to leave. I can't see him doing a Hewitt or Roddick and playing on ranked outside the top 10.

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Agreed, I find it quite impossible to imagine him playing outside Top 10 simply because a fall to that level would have only come about from a rash of very poor results. In fact I question whether he would continue below Top Five.

Roddick did tremendously well to finish ten consecutive years inside the top ten (Federer himself is - I believe ? - the only active player to have matched, and now surpassed, such a feat). Hewitt, by contrast, (and partly because of recurring injury of course) has not featured as a top tenner since 2006, and has collected no significant silverware since way back in 2003 ; all of which which says quite something about his ongoing appetite for the game.

...or Hewitt's true relative ability once some better guys came along after 2003...

Yes Federer can probably walk into Wimb or USO cold and still go deep, so he could play a reduced schedule for sure. Question will be whether he wants to...whether he's an all or nothing kind of guy...although I dont think he is, he's been playing a canny schedule for a while now.

Personally I think he's had an amazing year (for a number of reasons)...but I just dont see it happening again. Sure he'll still be competitive at slams but I dont think he'll win another now and can see him being down to 5-7 ranking next year by the end (overtaken by Berdy or Raonic or both). Then in 2014 he'll be on a kind of lap of honour until he gets to Basel...because I just dont see him going into 2015 - why would he want to? But hey, he may surprise us all yet and pop up at key events...just dont see it though.

Lags72. Good points about the adrenaline rush. Nearly all ex-sportmen tell you that NOTHING can be quite like being a player. Probably why so many of them go into the media where they have to meet new challenges in terms of deadlines, presenting, interviewing etc.
They're part of the sporting scene but they'd probably give anything to be out their playing and winning again.

I think that was plainly illustrated at the Olympics... so many of the athletes said how they had wished they could have competed especially in front of that home crowd. Us mere mortals can only imagine what it must feel like.. to quote the words of the song "Just one Moment in Time" but one that lives with you forever.

It must be sad for any athlete who has been at the pinacle of their sport to have to call it a day.

HB : I'd get that schedule + accompanying notes emailed to the great one asap. He might well like the look of it
(although perhaps Mirka + daughters might not.....!??)

lydian : yep, you're right re Hewitt. No amount of C'mons and related gestures can help when you're up against more talented players. I was just commenting on his admirable sense of motivation, even if it hasn't translated into success on the court for almost a decade now.

lags72 wrote:I agree 100% (although I'd add that to do "something similar" we might - in addition to understanding them - also need a certain amount of ability and innate talent ...... Wink )

details, mere details lags!!! lol

lydian wrote:Personally I think he's had an amazing year (for a number of reasons)...but I just dont see it happening again. Sure he'll still be competitive at slams but I dont think he'll win another now and can see him being down to 5-7 ranking next year by the end (overtaken by Berdy or Raonic or both). Then in 2014 he'll be on a kind of lap of honour until he gets to Basel...because I just dont see him going into 2015 - why would he want to? But hey, he may surprise us all yet and pop up at key events...just dont see it though.

I agree with you lydian about TMF's wonderful year and how it might well be the last great swansong in terms of trophies - it has been fantastic to see him play so well at times and to regain the No 1 spot. I can't see that being reproduced in 2013 in the same way because anno domini has been knocking for a while now. Still won't forget in a hurry the way he won Wimbledon with some sublime play - vintage Fed it all might depend as much on how Nadal hits the ground running, whether Djokovic finds the way back to closing out tight matches against the rest in the top four again, if Murray carries momentum forward from his great triumphs this summer - they are all still a class apart from the rest, even the Aged One!

lags72 wrote:lydian : yep, you're right re Hewitt. No amount of C'mons and related gestures can help when you're up against more talented players. I was just commenting on his admirable sense of motivation, even if it hasn't translated into success on the court for almost a decade now.

That's why I mentioned Hewitt too. A competitive fire rages within him that keeps him out there despite his all too brief glory years being a distant memory. We might not have the same belief in him, but I'm not sure that he doesn't

legendkillarV2 wrote:Pardon the pun, but when he's had enough

Ha ha! legendkillarV2 you should use your funny side more often.

Its a shame there are people like Murray who shout out "I HATE TENNIS" during matches and then there are people who genuinely love the game like Federer.

When people talk about Federer retiring I want to put my fingers in my ears and sing really loudly...

However I don't think it will be soon. For starters he's had a great year by any standards. Also for a lot of players it's not the tennis they grow tired of but the travelling, living out of a suitcase or wanting to have a more normal family life. Federer has said that he enjoys the travel and so has Mirka. Mirka is I believe Federer's secret weapon. Tennis fans should be very grateful to Mirka.

I also think Federer has a very strong ego (Ha ha!). He is not damaged by loss so I can see him playing on even when the inevitable happens and he slips down the rankings. Either through loss or cutting down a bit on his schedule. If this does happen I intend to petition all tournaments that are lucky enough to have him in the draw to get them to introduce him by listing his achievements rather than his present ranking.

As long as he continues to play he will remain dangerous and will be a threat at slams.

In a way he's got to the age now where you expect some decline from this point forwards...its not like he's 28-29 undergoing decline like others have seen. He's already proved he could maintain his peak longer than most people thought would be possible for a guy at the very top. I dont think people will see the next 2 years with massive expectation anymore.

So, he could become a type of rogue player on tour in a year or so where no-one expects him to win big due to his age but know that he could do. No player will ever want to face him no matter what age he gets to...after all these guys can still play some after they've tour for 7-8 years (like Sampras did when he starting playing again after dropping the racquet for 5 years to play Fed in exho's and Roger said his serve alone would still be enough to get him in Top5).

Federer The Floater!

maybe a better choice of words than 'floater' for federer please lydian

lol...no toilet pun intended!

Well maybe Floater is not such a bad term as far as early rounds are concerned where his name on any drawsheet will, as lydian says, surely strike fear for a good while yet.

He's already at a point where he now accepts 'bad' defeats with a greater equanimity than he ever could in his pomp ; although no Champ worthy of the name ever enjoys losing at any stage of their career and I think he was pretty upset with himself at going out to Berdy at the USO, after a strangely sub-par performance by his once-mercurial standards.

But as the Federer on-court relaxed and absolutely nothing-to-prove mode gradually moves up (or should that be drops down...?? ) another gear or two, then he might well be more dangerous than ever to any rookie opponent who harbours thoughts that the old man is finally there for the taking ......

Exactly lags...I bet 2 years from now (if he's still playing) if he's having one of those "on days" then he's going to be unplayable as usual. He'll be 50 or so before he loses that unreal ability to take the ball early...and the serve will likely stay strong for years too. Only the movement and recovery may start to let him down but even so it may still be more than enough to beat many top players if he can adjust his game to play even more aggressively. After all, Sampras was pretty washed up in 2002 yet he was uber-aggressive in that final USO. His average...get this...2nd serve, not 1st serve, speed that tournament was 118mph!!!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1358275-roger-federer-why-age-has-ended-his-run-as-tennis-greatest

One of the stupidest article I have ever read in my life.

These two important concepts stick in my mind:

one is: by getting older tennis players drop their performance level.

Two: since Federer is not taking part to Mubadala WTC?? he must be losing some motivation in the game. Was that intentional humour?

Federer said numerous time he would consider retirement around the age of 34/35. Why not tust him?

Federer also has to be buoyed by the form of Haas who is 35 next April.

At the start of the year he was #202, now he's nearly top 20. These old guys can sure play a little...

I think the Senior Tour guys must be praying he keeps going. I can see Federer being unplayable on that tour for 25 years, his game just isn't going to collapse with age - it's based too much on what's in his hands and head, not what's in his legs or lungs.

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1358275-roger-federer-why-age-has-ended-his-run-as-tennis-greatest

One of the stupidest article I have ever read in my life.

These two important concepts stick in my mind:

one is: by getting older tennis players drop their performance level.

Two: since Federer is not taking part to Mubadala WTC?? he must be losing some motivation in the game. Was that intentional humour?

Federer said numerous time he would consider retirement around the age of 34/35. Why not tust him?

You obviouly did not see this in my opening comments of my article why do I waste my time lol

Agree BB...and it was abit of the same with Sampras.
After retiring in 2002 he basically didnt pick up a racquet for 6 years then entered his first Senoir Tour and won it straight off (beating Rios in final).
After that I frankly think he was bored given how easy it was and just enters the odd one now and then.
These guys who's game is all touch and power (not just touch like McEnroe) probably find it too easy on the Seniors. I dare say it might keep Federer on the main tour longer knowing there is going to be nothing to challenge him beyond it.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1358275-roger-federer-why-age-has-ended-his-run-as-tennis-greatest

One of the stupidest article I have ever read in my life.

These two important concepts stick in my mind:

one is: by getting older tennis players drop their performance level.

Two: since Federer is not taking part to Mubadala WTC?? he must be losing some motivation in the game. Was that intentional humour?

Federer said numerous time he would consider retirement around the age of 34/35. Why not tust him?

You obviouly did not see this in my opening comments of my article why do I waste my time lol

In an unexciting period when even Socal seems to be busy on other matters, I am thankful to you for bringing to my attention this commendable, although not as good as his, piece of commedy. I would suggest for the future to draw some inspiration from a well regarded tennis blog specialized in Spanish tennis of which I am sure you must be aware of.........

Yes I am but why you make think it a piece of commedy I did think it would be interesting to hear comments and opinions from all those who post here not necessarily Federer fans who, correct me if Im wrong, you are one..I am fully aware of the fact that you would expect him to play on for eterity but for those of us who dont entirely agree with you its nice to hear the other side ... and if you notice it has been done without and vitriol, Federer bashing or harsh words ...(o yes there is a couple of nasty comments on here but those were aimed at another player ) I opened up a thread which, much to my surprise, has attracted fair and reasonable comment. Im sorry you think it not worthy of the great man.
I do not think it in any way comical as it happens

No, you are totally misunderstanding here, It's the article in the link that I find comical.

Especially where it says that:

"Federer won't be playing in the 2012 Mubadala World Tennis Championships. That tournament is being played in December. Deciding on skipping a tournament that is two months away is probably to rest up for next year, but it's still troubling news"

Come on It cannot be serious

BTW: what is it the Mubadala WTC??

Yes ok I understand but as for the Mubadala WTC no idea pass.
Whatever it is I think Nadal will be missing it also.
I doubt Roger would give a toss anyway.

It's Abu Dhabi.

How could anyone read anything into passing on Abu Dhabi? Very odd.

Considering he is playing exhibitions (as is Abu Dhabi) in South America in earlyish December I don't think it's a surprise that he is missing Abu Dhabi this year.