Will A Welsh Region Make The 1/4 Finals In Europe?

Andy Howell said in the Wales On Sunday that "it remains one of rugby’s great mysteries, that a country which has won an astonishing three Six Nations Grand Slams in seven seasons is incapable of landing the northern hemisphere’s showpiece club and regional tournament"

Barry John also dismissed our chances saying he "can’t see any region reaching the quarter-finals" and he wouldn't be "going into any betting shop and putting my money on a regional quarter-finalist, let alone back a Welsh winner"

Sadly it looks as though they could be right. The regions have been given tough groups and I don’t believe a region can make the knockout stage.

The Blues pack is weak and will be found out against the likes of Montpellier and Toulon. Add to the fact their dire recent form makes it impossible to see them top the group or best runner up.

Ospreys despite their recent return to form have Toulouse and Leicester in their group and I can’t see them winning at Welford Road and Stade Ernest-Wallon. Plus they have already lost to Treviso away in the Pro 12 means the Ospreys will finish no higher than 3rd.

Scarlets are leading the way so far but like the Ospreys have a mountain to climb to get out of the group. Clermont and Lenister who have won three of the last four Heineken Cups. Exeter are no mugs either especially at home.

I see all 3 Regions finishing no higher than 3rd in their groups. What does everyone else think? Who has the best chance getting of through?

I see Ospreys going through. They look comfortable and they look like they are playing well within themselves.

I cant see any regions getting thro, but dont think it should b all doom and gloom. The blues are looking poor but are at the start of a rebuilding phase and are dealing with a weak front five.
The scarlets and ospreys r in the form teams but with groups including leinster, clermont, toulon and leicester it would b difficult for most teams to qualify.

The draw has not been kind to the Scarlets and Ospreys and the Blues are not good enough.

I think the Ospreys have a chance. They have a good pack and a good kicker and their backs can take opportunities. The problem is I only see one team coming out of their group. Its likely to be Toulouse but they're not unbeatable.

Ospreys first game next week will tell all about whether they've a chance to qualify. If they can beat Treviso home and away and get 5 points from each, they're in with a shout. That's what they need to be doing if they're going to break the Welsh duck. And they're likely the only Welsh side with a good opportunity to advance. Leicester are looking shaky this season and missing some players. Toulouse first up at home is a tough ask.

In fairness, the Ospreys and Scarlets were given cruel groups. If either of them were in the Blues group I'd back them to get through. As it is, I wouldn't be overly surprised if the Ospreys got through. Although Toulouse are the favourites, I'd say the Ospreys are definitely capable of getting out of it. Leinster and Clermont are the two best sides in the tournament, so unfortunately I don't see Scarlets having much of a chance there (next year if they get a kinder draw though!). Blues just aren't good enough tbh....

I voted yes.


Dragons Pool does not look especially strong

As already mentioned Scarlets and Ospreys have been unfortunate with their groups. In Pool 3 or 6 they would be laughing but they have very tough tasks.

Maybe Cardiff could defy expectations once again to make the quarter finals but unlikely.

Just to point out that a Pool is only cruel or tough when it proves itself to be. Nobody really knows what teams will perform - even the considered star sides of the show. Leinster certainly don't look anything like the menacing side it has been the last few years - yet. And it's only one of the sides that people still expect to act like the world isn't turning and they're not burdened with many injuries.

You can probably guess that the 'better' sides will step up and prove themselves resilient but that's all it is right now - an iffy guess.

I think the Scarlets have had a kick up the backside by the Ospreys to expose they weak link i.e., the scrum, they will not face a stronger pack than the Ospreys so if the sort out their front row they will cause a lot of problems for the other teams in their group. The Scarlets have a good record for turning over away teams because of their dangerous backs.

The Ospreys have an internation standard pack and a couple of decent backs, I think they will win all their home games and beat Treviso and the Tigers away, this should be enough to get to the 1/4's.

The Blues always get the easy group, they are the weakest team and will fail.

I think the Ospreys will go through.

The Scarlets don't have it as tough as people think. Leinster have more players injured than you could shake a stick at and they don't have depth in every position. Toulon are looking stronger than Clermont this year.

In my opinion, no. Ospreys have the best chance but Toulouse are probably the better team and will progress.

I reckon this is the season that surprises everyone and the regions come of age.

Believe the Ospreys are now, after a disastrous early start to the season, are now firing like a well oiled machine, with a young magician at the helm (Biggar). They are finding their form at the right time. I see them getting through to the quarters, and potentially all the way.

But, to throw the cat amongst the pigeons, I see the Scarlets also making it out of the pool stages.

I think the Blues have lost too much up front this year, and although still a potent strike force in the 3/4s, they will struggle with parity up front, and find themselves chasing games. Believe their star player will be Halfpenny, who will keep them fighting with an accurate boot, that will make Jonny Wilkinson look average, as he will have accuracy from nearly anywhere, no matter how long.

So, yes I predict the Ospreys and Scarlets to make the quarters with the Blues giving a few bloody noses, but missing out in the end.

No. Not good enough. Only the Ospreys have the squad to be in the hunt but lack the leadership. There isn't a coach in Wales that can hold a candle to the best in Europe.

The draw has been tough on the Regions this season. If the ERC awarded more ranking points to the respective league champions, rather than on ERC competition performance over four years, we might get more evenly balanced pools.

Throw in some ERC ranking points for where sides finish in their league in the previous season and it would make the Pro 12 more competitive.

Edit - that is not meant to be disrespectful to the Pro 12. There have been several articles about improving attendances. A % of ERC ranking points based on league positions might help.

Hound_of_Harrow wrote:The draw has been tough on the Regions this season. If the ERC awarded more ranking points to the respective league champions, rather than on ERC competition performance over four years, we might get more evenly balanced pools.

Throw in some ERC ranking points for where sides finish in their league in the previous season and it would make the Pro 12 more competitive.

Edit - that is not meant to be disrespectful to the Pro 12. There have been several articles about improving attendances. A % of ERC ranking points based on league positions might help.

Totally agree, the Blues are a good example, they always get the best group from a Welsh point of view but they have never won the RABO or got near, the Ospreys on the other hand always seem to draw top teams, they would love to draw the Blues but can't.

Yup and I'm fearful for the Scarlets, as they've performed quite well against very good sides in the last few years - after going 2 years without a win, but as they are such low seeds it means teams like Munster, Leinster, Leicester have gone through instead of them and they haven't been able to rise a seeding because of just missing out on a QF - which means the same struggle the next year.

This year we could either just miss out again (IF we beat Exeter home and away and beat Leinster home, all doable but very very tough), but could just as easily finish the group with 1 or 0 wins.

Will A Welsh Region Make The 1/4 Finals In Europe?

Maybe!


Will a Welsh Region Win the HC Before Another English Club Does?

Hmmm

Would it be more likely that one or more of Ospreys, Blues and Scarlets could do enough to drop in to the Amlin? If they did then one of those teams could give them selves a real rankings boost by winning the thing or at least making the final.

LondonTiger wrote:I voted yes.


Dragons Pool does not look especially strong

To be honest I think even the Dragons are humped for getting through to the QFs.

I have said to someone today that I think the Ospreys and Scarlets are going be be pushing their groups to the end, but neither will make it through.

I agree unfortunately SS.

Interesting point Yappsnap, if the Scarlets can get make it into the Amlin (difficult) and manage to get to the Final then we should finally rise up a seeding.

It'll be difficult but doable.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:I voted yes.


Dragons Pool does not look especially strong

To be honest I think even the Dragons are humped for getting through to the QFs.

I have said to someone today that I think the Ospreys and Scarlets are going be be pushing their groups to the end, but neither will make it through.

If we win Saturday (which we won't), I would fancy us to go through. We should technically get ten points v Mogliano and I would be disappointed to lose to Wasps and Bayonne at home (given that their form isn't so great). However, knowing our current performances, I think we might only win 2 or 3 games.

Risca - I think you should be looking realisitcally for three home wins, one away win (Mogliano) and hopefully two losing bonus points away too. And then if results got he right way etc etc

We're all saying similar last year and those who thought the regions wouldnt qualify were right.

But, the Scarlets did give a good account of themselves with a feat win at franklins gardens.

There is potential for all to do well. But I fear we are going to struggle against the Irish, English and French.

That said I hope we go down fighting hard.

I don't see any welsh club progressing, although if Scarlets or Ospreys had drawn the Blues group...

That said Montpellier and Toulon don't travel well at all, any sort of Blues home form and beating Sale on sunday away may inspire some real fight...

Leinster have been thrashed by the Scarlets already, and CA's performances away are sketchy...

Ospreys have the pack to match Leicester and Tolouse, away LBP's may be crucial in that group...

Just trying to put an optimistic squint on things, especially when that Toulon pack meet the Blues tight 5!!!