HC - The state of the pools after round 2

HC – The groups after Round 2

This is a thread about the state of the HC after rounds 1 and 2 - only. [b]If you want to moan about the qualification system, any perceived towards the Rabo teams, whether Connacht qualify only on Leinster’s coat-tails then do it somewhere else etc etc etc ad nauseam then do it somewhere else please.[/b

Pool 1
Saracens in pole position and theirs to lose. Despite their 5-pointer against Edinburgh, Munster still have an awful lot prove and few teams are going to lie down for them the way Edinburgh did. Munster might win at home v Saracens in the Dec back-to-back but don’t think they can wherever Sarries choose to have their home game. Two losses will make it very difficult to qualify from a group where the second-place is unlikely to make the best two runners-up. Racing Metro usually show no interest but if they manage two wins in the back-to-back v Edinburgh then they might think about actually qualifying.
Prediction – Saracens win group, Munster second but not enough points to make QF

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

Pool 3
Quins should stroll this with enough points to get home QF. Biarritz are a pale shadow of what they used to be, Connacht will help by being a nuisance and possibly beat Biarritz at home while Zebre – well nul points. A very weak group with one team head and shoulders over the rest.
Prediction – Quins to win group with more than enough ponts for home QF

Pool 4
Ulster-Saints back-to-back the key – probably home wins with LBP’s for both and this will leave Ulster in driving seat. Saints will need to improve from this weekend’s unimpressive performance v Castres. Ulster (even without Muller) with final games v Glasgow (h) and Castres (a) should win group – don’t think Saints will get enough points for a best runner-up slot.
Prediction - Ulster wih grouip

Pool 5
Didn’t see either game but Clermont were by all accounts awesome in second half v Exeter while Leinster put in a workmanlike performance to get an away win v Scarlets. As in other groups back-to-backs in December crucial and (maybe wearing my blue-tinged specs) I expect home wins with LBP’s for both.
Prediction – Clermont top group, Leinster get best runner-up slot – just!

Pool 6
Bookies now have Toulon as favourites and in easy group, Toulon should stroll to a home QF without much bother.
Prediction – Toulon top group.

If that all pans out then Tigers and Leinster will have away QF’s and none of the group winners is going to fancy either of those – even when playing at home. Long way to go – but I fancy Clermont (at 9-2 with the bookies) to win HC this time – Toulon and Quins maybe the main challengers and maybe Leinster if they can add some of their old flair to the mean defence they showed in the past two games.

brennomac wrote:HC – The groups after Round 2

This is a thread about the state of the HC after rounds 1 and 2 - only. If you want to moan about the qualification system, any perceived towards the Rabo teams, whether Connacht qualify only on Leinster’s coat-tails then do it somewhere else etc etc etc ad nauseam then do it somewhere else please.

Pool 1
Saracens in pole position and theirs to lose. Despite their 5-pointer against Edinburgh, Munster still have an awful lot prove and few teams are going to lie down for them the way Edinburgh did. Munster might win at home v Saracens in the Dec back-to-back but don’t think they can wherever Sarries choose to have their home game. Two losses will make it very difficult to qualify from a group where the second-place is unlikely to make the best two runners-up. Racing Metro usually show no interest but if they manage two wins in the back-to-back v Edinburgh then they might think about actually qualifying.
Prediction – Saracens win group, Munster second but not enough points to make QF

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

Pool 3
Quins should stroll this with enough points to get home QF. Biarritz are a pale shadow of what they used to be, Connacht will help by being a nuisance and possibly beat Biarritz at home while Zebre – well nul points. A very weak group with one team head and shoulders over the rest.
Prediction – Quins to win group with more than enough ponts for home QF

Pool 4
Ulster-Saints back-to-back the key – probably home wins with LBP’s for both and this will leave Ulster in driving seat. Saints will need to improve from this weekend’s unimpressive performance v Castres. Ulster (even without Muller) with final games v Glasgow (h) and Castres (a) should win group – don’t think Saints will get enough points for a best runner-up slot.
Prediction - Ulster wih grouip

Pool 5
Didn’t see either game but Clermont were by all accounts awesome in second half v Exeter while Leinster put in a workmanlike performance to get an away win v Scarlets. As in other groups back-to-backs in December crucial and (maybe wearing my blue-tinged specs) I expect home wins with LBP’s for both.
Prediction – Clermont top group, Leinster get best runner-up slot – just!

Pool 6
Bookies now have Toulon as favourites and in easy group, Toulon should stroll to a home QF without much bother.
Prediction – Toulon top group.

If that all pans out then Tigers and Leinster will have away QF’s and none of the group winners is going to fancy either of those – even when playing at home. Long way to go – but I fancy Clermont (at 9-2 with the bookies) to win HC this time – Toulon and Quins maybe the main challengers and maybe Leinster if they can add some of their old flair to the mean defence they showed in the past two games.

I most definately disagree, they came out of the blocks and put 10 quick points on Tigers, and could have taken the match at any point up until Flood's interception (and arguably at any point up until the last 10 minutes). Tigers played as well as they have done all season and yet Ospreys made them work hard. Awful? You're kidding right.

My interpretation is that although Toulouse are out in front, they missed the bonus point win against Treviso (and Tigers at home), who now have Tigers back to back. Tigers will get stronger as the comp goes on and I would expect them to do well against Toulouse at WR and get at least a LBP at The Liberty. The failure of Ospreys to get anything from WR means that (probably only in my eyes), Leicester are in the driving seat in group 2.

Jimpy wrote:

brennomac wrote:HC – The groups after Round 2

This is a thread about the state of the HC after rounds 1 and 2 - only. If you want to moan about the qualification system, any perceived towards the Rabo teams, whether Connacht qualify only on Leinster’s coat-tails then do it somewhere else etc etc etc ad nauseam then do it somewhere else please.

Pool 1
Saracens in pole position and theirs to lose. Despite their 5-pointer against Edinburgh, Munster still have an awful lot prove and few teams are going to lie down for them the way Edinburgh did. Munster might win at home v Saracens in the Dec back-to-back but don’t think they can wherever Sarries choose to have their home game. Two losses will make it very difficult to qualify from a group where the second-place is unlikely to make the best two runners-up. Racing Metro usually show no interest but if they manage two wins in the back-to-back v Edinburgh then they might think about actually qualifying.
Prediction – Saracens win group, Munster second but not enough points to make QF

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

Pool 3
Quins should stroll this with enough points to get home QF. Biarritz are a pale shadow of what they used to be, Connacht will help by being a nuisance and possibly beat Biarritz at home while Zebre – well nul points. A very weak group with one team head and shoulders over the rest.
Prediction – Quins to win group with more than enough ponts for home QF

Pool 4
Ulster-Saints back-to-back the key – probably home wins with LBP’s for both and this will leave Ulster in driving seat. Saints will need to improve from this weekend’s unimpressive performance v Castres. Ulster (even without Muller) with final games v Glasgow (h) and Castres (a) should win group – don’t think Saints will get enough points for a best runner-up slot.
Prediction - Ulster wih grouip

Pool 5
Didn’t see either game but Clermont were by all accounts awesome in second half v Exeter while Leinster put in a workmanlike performance to get an away win v Scarlets. As in other groups back-to-backs in December crucial and (maybe wearing my blue-tinged specs) I expect home wins with LBP’s for both.
Prediction – Clermont top group, Leinster get best runner-up slot – just!

Pool 6
Bookies now have Toulon as favourites and in easy group, Toulon should stroll to a home QF without much bother.
Prediction – Toulon top group.

If that all pans out then Tigers and Leinster will have away QF’s and none of the group winners is going to fancy either of those – even when playing at home. Long way to go – but I fancy Clermont (at 9-2 with the bookies) to win HC this time – Toulon and Quins maybe the main challengers and maybe Leinster if they can add some of their old flair to the mean defence they showed in the past two games.

I most definately disagree, they came out of the blocks and put 10 quick points on Tigers, and could have taken the match at any point up until Flood's interception (and arguably at any point up until the last 10 minutes). Tigers played as well as they have done all season and yet Ospreys made them work hard. Awful? You're kidding right.

My interpretation is that although Toulouse are out in front, they missed the bonus point win against Treviso (and Tigers at home), who now have Tigers back to back. Tigers will get stronger as the comp goes on and I would expect them to do well against Toulouse at WR and get at least a LBP at The Liberty. The failure of Ospreys to get anything from WR means that (probably only in my eyes), Leicester are in the driving seat in group 2.

+1 Ospreys looked like they'd win it till Flood struck

yappysnap wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

brennomac wrote:HC – The groups after Round 2

This is a thread about the state of the HC after rounds 1 and 2 - only. If you want to moan about the qualification system, any perceived towards the Rabo teams, whether Connacht qualify only on Leinster’s coat-tails then do it somewhere else etc etc etc ad nauseam then do it somewhere else please.

Pool 1
Saracens in pole position and theirs to lose. Despite their 5-pointer against Edinburgh, Munster still have an awful lot prove and few teams are going to lie down for them the way Edinburgh did. Munster might win at home v Saracens in the Dec back-to-back but don’t think they can wherever Sarries choose to have their home game. Two losses will make it very difficult to qualify from a group where the second-place is unlikely to make the best two runners-up. Racing Metro usually show no interest but if they manage two wins in the back-to-back v Edinburgh then they might think about actually qualifying.
Prediction – Saracens win group, Munster second but not enough points to make QF

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

Pool 3
Quins should stroll this with enough points to get home QF. Biarritz are a pale shadow of what they used to be, Connacht will help by being a nuisance and possibly beat Biarritz at home while Zebre – well nul points. A very weak group with one team head and shoulders over the rest.
Prediction – Quins to win group with more than enough ponts for home QF

Pool 4
Ulster-Saints back-to-back the key – probably home wins with LBP’s for both and this will leave Ulster in driving seat. Saints will need to improve from this weekend’s unimpressive performance v Castres. Ulster (even without Muller) with final games v Glasgow (h) and Castres (a) should win group – don’t think Saints will get enough points for a best runner-up slot.
Prediction - Ulster wih grouip

Pool 5
Didn’t see either game but Clermont were by all accounts awesome in second half v Exeter while Leinster put in a workmanlike performance to get an away win v Scarlets. As in other groups back-to-backs in December crucial and (maybe wearing my blue-tinged specs) I expect home wins with LBP’s for both.
Prediction – Clermont top group, Leinster get best runner-up slot – just!

Pool 6
Bookies now have Toulon as favourites and in easy group, Toulon should stroll to a home QF without much bother.
Prediction – Toulon top group.

If that all pans out then Tigers and Leinster will have away QF’s and none of the group winners is going to fancy either of those – even when playing at home. Long way to go – but I fancy Clermont (at 9-2 with the bookies) to win HC this time – Toulon and Quins maybe the main challengers and maybe Leinster if they can add some of their old flair to the mean defence they showed in the past two games.

I most definately disagree, they came out of the blocks and put 10 quick points on Tigers, and could have taken the match at any point up until Flood's interception (and arguably at any point up until the last 10 minutes). Tigers played as well as they have done all season and yet Ospreys made them work hard. Awful? You're kidding right.

My interpretation is that although Toulouse are out in front, they missed the bonus point win against Treviso (and Tigers at home), who now have Tigers back to back. Tigers will get stronger as the comp goes on and I would expect them to do well against Toulouse at WR and get at least a LBP at The Liberty. The failure of Ospreys to get anything from WR means that (probably only in my eyes), Leicester are in the driving seat in group 2.

+1 Ospreys looked like they'd win it till Flood struck

No - I think Tigers were in the ascendency throughout the second half - Bevingtons yellow was significant in the scrums & Tigers were pressing plus they had a significantly stronger bench. The Biggar pass was a mistake borne out of pressure. The Ospreys should have kept things tighter & avoided set pieces & taken the LBP at worst.
They didn't & the Tigers ran away with it but the pressure was mounting from the beginning of the second half IMO.

brennomac wrote:HC – The groups after Round 2

This is a thread about the state of the HC after rounds 1 and 2 - only. If you want to moan about the qualification system, any perceived towards the Rabo teams, whether Connacht qualify only on Leinster’s coat-tails then do it somewhere else etc etc etc ad nauseam then do it somewhere else please.

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

I can't see past a Toulouse win either... we (Tigers) flattered our own scoreline against Os and really just got the TBP which we would have hoped to have as a LBP against Toulouse before round 1 started, so no better off. Os will have hoped for a LBP against us before the match (I think) so are probably 1 point down vs where they hoped to be. Toulouse definitely missed out on a TBP against Treviso.

The key is who can pick up more bonus points against Treviso and, ideally, keep the "real" opposition from getting a LBP against you at your home. And that's all to come...

Also, I don't think Leinster's group will have a qualifying runner up unless they beat Clermont home and away. Quins/Biarritz will contain the first runner up and I reckon ours stands a better chance of delivering us as second runner up.

Hmmm... there's a realistic prospect of a Quins v Leinster QF at the Stoop, isn't there? Can you imagine what the atmosphere (and press coverage) would be like?

I think Tigers challenge hinges on the back to back games. They must get all ten points as the final two games will be tough. I'd expect a win at WR but the key there will be to avoid conceding the LBP. Away from home we are not the best so an LBP against the Ospreys will be the target. Manage all that and we should top the group. Not sure if that will be enough as we need a home quarter final.

Leinster vs Clermont will be cracking. A deciding factor in that group will be Exteter, Leinster will need to get a TBP at Sandy Park which is a tough ask and something Clermont only managed by sending a full strength squad and utilising their bench. A trip to Sandy Park and the Clermont back to back will really test the Dubliners mettle.

Poorfour wrote:Hmmm... there's a realistic prospect of a Quins v Leinster QF at the Stoop, isn't there? Can you imagine what the atmosphere (and press coverage) would be like?

Could also be a Quins v Leicester QF...

Jimpy wrote:
I most definately disagree, they came out of the blocks and put 10 quick points on Tigers, and could have taken the match at any point up until Flood's interception (and arguably at any point up until the last 10 minutes). Tigers played as well as they have done all season and yet Ospreys made them work hard. Awful? You're kidding right.

My interpretation is that although Toulouse are out in front, they missed the bonus point win against Treviso (and Tigers at home), who now have Tigers back to back. Tigers will get stronger as the comp goes on and I would expect them to do well against Toulouse at WR and get at least a LBP at The Liberty. The failure of Ospreys to get anything from WR means that (probably only in my eyes), Leicester are in the driving seat in group 2.

I don't know how, but I had completely missed that! I saw the scoreline with their 33 points and just assumed they'd scored the 4 tries. Not sure whether that's a slip up though or just a measure of how Treviso have improved. Perhaps 9 points from the Treviso games, 5 at home and 4 away, is what should now be considered a par result. Still, it will be interesting to see how the group goes now, and if Tigers do get the maximum 10 points then that would perhaps put the ball in Leicester's court.

Poorfour wrote:Hmmm... there's a realistic prospect of a Quins v Leinster QF at the Stoop, isn't there? Can you imagine what the atmosphere (and press coverage) would be like?

I think the OP is spot-on here. Good pool analysis.
Id take Quins away in a QF, in a flash right now. Only away game which would really trouble me, would be ASM (cant happen in the QF´s) and Toulouse.

Ulster or Tigers away in the QF´s would be tough, but well within our ability to win either of those.

Cant see past ASM for the HC 2013. They are on fire and have learned hard lessons from previous pool & knockout games with us. TBH, I think they would make great Champions. Their excellent fans deserve it too.

Gibson wrote: Only away game which would really trouble me, would be ASM (cant happen in the QF´s) and Toulouse.

Why? I can think of one ocassion when teams from the same group met in the QF (2003/4 Toulouse and Edinburgh had 5 wins apiece - Toulouse topped the group and were one of the two top seeds, while Edinburgh were a best runner up). Not sure the rules have changed since then.

LondonTiger wrote:

Gibson wrote: Only away game which would really trouble me, would be ASM (cant happen in the QF´s) and Toulouse.

Why? I can think of one ocassion when teams from the same group met in the QF (2003/4 Toulouse and Edinburgh had 5 wins apiece - Toulouse topped the group and were one of the two top seeds, while Edinburgh were a best runner up). Not sure the rules have changed since then.

Tiger, you are correct sir. It is possible under the rules. But highly unlikely in the ASM v Leinster case.

Stop freaking me out man.

Not sure how unlikely it is. Both teams will now be looking to do the double over Scarlets and Exeter (although neither will lie down) so if they share the spoils between them it could happen.

LondonTiger wrote:

Gibson wrote: Only away game which would really trouble me, would be ASM (cant happen in the QF´s) and Toulouse.

Why? I can think of one ocassion when teams from the same group met in the QF (2003/4 Toulouse and Edinburgh had 5 wins apiece - Toulouse topped the group and were one of the two top seeds, while Edinburgh were a best runner up). Not sure the rules have changed since then.

It happened the following year as well with Saints and Toulouse, 07/08 with Perpignan and London Irish then again with Saints and Munster in 09/10. I'm pretty sure it's happened a few times before then as well. It always sticks in my mind when it happens as it seems a touch ridiculous that teams can meet again in the quarters are qualifying from the same group.

However, it makes sense that it happens fairly frequently, as the teams most likely to go through as best runners up are likely to be in a group with a weak 3rd/4th team, and therefore they'll have a couple of away wins. For the same reason the group winners have a decent chance of being in the top two, as they will have a couple of away wins and a decent number of bonus points.

My hopes for Saracens are to top pool 1 and avoid Clermont and Leinster till the semis at least if we get that far. Other sides either home and away I would be happy with.

These two are definitely the sides to beat. It's a shame neither Scarlets or Exeter look like preventing both from qualifying.

It would make progress look slightly easier if one at least was knocked out. Wishful thinking I know.

LondonTiger wrote:Not sure how unlikely it is. Both teams will now be looking to do the double over Scarlets and Exeter (although neither will lie down) so if they share the spoils between them it could happen.

It happens a lot. Biarritz and.... was it Saracens? (no, Northampton went down there and beat them after losing twice in the pool) Munster and Northampton.....

Could easily happen with Leinster and Clermont.

Either one could top the group (Clermont currently looking like favourites) with the other coming in 7th or 8th seed. If one of them are 1st or 2nd seed for the quarters.......All bets are off

Guys, just for the record, whenever you quote someone, you can then go in and delete all the parts of the quote that are not relevant to your response.

It would tidy things up a fair bit.

yappysnap wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

brennomac wrote:HC – The groups after Round 2

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

My interpretation is that although Toulouse are out in front, they missed the bonus point win against Treviso (and Tigers at home), who now have Tigers back to back. Tigers will get stronger as the comp goes on and I would expect them to do well against Toulouse at WR and get at least a LBP at The Liberty. The failure of Ospreys to get anything from WR means that (probably only in my eyes), Leicester are in the driving seat in group 2.

+1 Ospreys looked like they'd win it till Flood struck

Ospreys were point for point until the last ten minutes. The score massively flatters Tigers. Ospreys are also still ahead of Tigers in the group.

Leicester are still definitely in their group. Must win all of their games now and hope Ospreys beat Toulouse.

It's obvious that if you win 5 of your matches you have a really good chance of qualifying. Losing one game isn't the end of the world. 3 home wins and 2 away wins is always the target.

maestegmafia wrote:

yappysnap wrote:

Jimpy wrote:

brennomac wrote:HC – The groups after Round 2

Pool 2
Toulouse in pole position without actually playing very well so far. Would expect them to win 5 out of 6. Ospreys looked awful v Leicester yesterday and expect Toulouse to tank them in the first back-to-back. Leicester looked very good in second half yesterday and should get 2nd place handily enough with enough points to get one of best runners-up slots.
Prediction – Toulouse win group, Leicester get one of best runner-up slots

My interpretation is that although Toulouse are out in front, they missed the bonus point win against Treviso (and Tigers at home), who now have Tigers back to back. Tigers will get stronger as the comp goes on and I would expect them to do well against Toulouse at WR and get at least a LBP at The Liberty. The failure of Ospreys to get anything from WR means that (probably only in my eyes), Leicester are in the driving seat in group 2.

+1 Ospreys looked like they'd win it till Flood struck

Ospreys were point for point until the last ten minutes. The score massively flatters Tigers. Ospreys are also still ahead of Tigers in the group.

<personal attack removed>

The score doesn't flatter Leicester and Ospreys are ahead by virtue of the fact that they've scored 1 more try - against Treviso. Well done

I think that Toulon and quins will be the top two teams. I can't see either not winning all their games. That means that who ever comes second will have to travel there. I'm not sure of Quinns at home but toulon is to be avoided at all costs.

The remaining two matches could see (only guesses) Sarries, Toulouse, Clermont and Ulster square off. They would be be some big games

Brendan wrote:I think that Toulon and quins will be the top two teams. I can't see either not winning all their games. That means that who ever comes second will have to travel there. I'm not sure of Quinns at home but toulon is to be avoided at all costs.

The remaining two matches could see (only guesses) Sarries, Toulouse, Clermont and Ulster square off. They would be be some big games

I wouldn't be too worried about a trip to the Stoop. Tigers have a pretty good record there - better than we do at Welford Road over the last decade or so.

Should be able to avoid Clermont hopefully.

Let's not forget Biarritz guys!

My current prediction would be

Quins
Toulon
Clermont
Saracens
Ulster
Toulouse
Leinster
Biarritz
This would give

Quins vs Biarritz
Toulon vs Leinster
Clermont vs Toulouse
Saracens vs Ulster

The last match could well be reversed.

beshocked wrote:
Quins vs Biarritz
Toulon vs Leinster
Clermont vs Toulouse
Saracens vs Ulster

I could live with a draw that means Toulon, Leinster, Clermont and Toulouse knocking lumps out of each other in the QFs and a French team travelling to the Stoop. I'd rather not face Sarries in the QFs (variety, more chance of English involvement in the semis) but I think Quins would have a very serious point to prove against Leinster.

Toulon is the place NOT to go, methinks.

Poorfour wrote:I'd rather not face Sarries in the QFs (variety, more chance of English involvement in the semis) but I think Quins would have a very serious point to prove against Leinster.

Erm - if Quins played Sarries in the QF's wouldnt there be a 100% chance of English involvement in the semis?

lostinwales wrote:

Poorfour wrote:I'd rather not face Sarries in the QFs (variety, more chance of English involvement in the semis) but I think Quins would have a very serious point to prove against Leinster.

Erm - if Quins played Sarries in the QF's wouldnt there be a 100% chance of English involvement in the semis?

I think on current form I'd give Quins and Sarries a better than evens chance of winning their respective QFs, especially assuming they are both at home. Say 60%. So the statistician in me says that a Quins v Sarries QF gives an expectation of 1 English team in the semis where as separate QFs would give an expectation of 1.2 teams in the semis. Plus, we play Sarries all the time.

Poorfour wrote:

lostinwales wrote:

Poorfour wrote:I'd rather not face Sarries in the QFs (variety, more chance of English involvement in the semis) but I think Quins would have a very serious point to prove against Leinster.

Erm - if Quins played Sarries in the QF's wouldnt there be a 100% chance of English involvement in the semis?

I think on current form I'd give Quins and Sarries a better than evens chance of winning their respective QFs, especially assuming they are both at home. Say 60%. So the statistician in me says that a Quins v Sarries QF gives an expectation of 1 English team in the semis where as separate QFs would give an expectation of 1.2 teams in the semis. Plus, we play Sarries all the time.

You could of course end up with none!

Hence the operative word "chance"

beshocked wrote:
Quins vs Biarritz
Toulon vs Leinster
Clermont vs Toulouse
Saracens vs Ulster

If the winners of Toulon v leinster played Clermont v Toulouse and if Toulouse won would that be the hardest ever route to a final.

Brendan wrote:

beshocked wrote:
Quins vs Biarritz
Toulon vs Leinster
Clermont vs Toulouse
Saracens vs Ulster

If the winners of Toulon v leinster played Clermont v Toulouse and if Toulouse won would that be the hardest ever route to a final.

And if Quins were to face Biarritz and then Sarries or Ulster, that could well be the easiest ever route to the final - unless Biarritz were to pick their game up significantly, the semi would be the first real test.

Ospreys were point for point until the last ten minutes. The score massively flatters Tigers. Ospreys are also still ahead of Tigers in the group.

Ospreys were certainly not poor and stayed in the game with some good tactical play. Having said that they didn't threaten the Tigers line or look like grabbing a try outside of their first excellent 15 mins. I think they really needed to bring of Biggar and gamble on Morgan in the second half.