PGA Tour: Four More Years? Maybe not for Disney: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).It's been a six-year tradition of the PGA Tour to draw the curtain on the season's entertainment at the Disney courses, outside Orlando. But "Children's Miracle Network Hospitals" are at the end of their title sponsor contract, and the very real possibility exists that this will be the Tour's final visit to Disneyworld for a while. Jack Nicklaus won the first three Disney tournaments, but there's no-one of that illustrious calibre in this week's field - more of which later!

2).With the confirmation that the HSBC Champions will become a fully-fledged PGA Tour event next year, we now have six or seven (Disney would be the 7th) events with which to start the 2013/2014 season in autumn 2013. They are, in no particular order because we have yet to see the schedule:
The McGladrey
CIMB
HSBC
Las Vegas
Fry's.com
Mayakoba

3).And that is just six or seven years after the leading Tour players told Commissioner Finchem they wished to bring the Tour Championship forward to September, hence the FedEx Cup and the advent of the Fall Series. Now one of these events will be the opening tournament of a split-year season, 2013/2014.

4).None of the six tournaments mentioned above are currently due to earn Masters invitations for their winners, so how will that be? Win a WGC but be denied an Augusta tee-time?? Not likely, so we await a statement from Billy Payne who will doubtless be under pressure from the Tour, FedEx and other sponsors to resolve this thorny issue. Augusta don't want to increase the size of the field so there'll be snakes to go with the invitational ladder.

5).If ever the PGA Tour wished to make a statement to a sponsor that their largesse was no longer welcome they'd trot out a field like this week's line-up. As far as I can see, Robert Garrigus is the only standard bearer for the top 71 in the World Rankings with Jonas Blixt next at #72. As for the rest, who do they think they are? McIlroy and Woods?? Never mind, they'll be back in their droves for the Tiger guaranteed money tournament.

6).But there's plenty to play for, almost $5M. Let's deal with the Europeans first:
~Blixt needs to win at least $487K (solo second) to be sure of reaching the top 30 on the moneylist and a ticket to The Masters, though he could make it with a solo 3rd depending upon the results of Ben Curtis and De Jonge.
~Alex Cejka (182nd), Chopra (197th), Gary Christian (127th), Karlsson (161st) and Knox (156th) will be striving to reach the Top 125 on the moneylist to secure their "cards" for 2013. At the very least, Cejka, Karlsson and Knox will hope to reach the Top 150 for conditional 2013 status and a free pass to Q-School Final Stage.
~Brian Davis and Greg Owen are comfortably placed and hopefully can end their season with something of a bang after their respective whimpers of the past couple of months.
~And Stenson will just be happy to play his 15th and final event to secure his eligibility for 2013.

7).Others still to earn their exemption for 2013 include Camilo Villegas who sits precariously at 150th. Camilo continues to be a fan favourite and I doubt there's a finger not crossed in Tour HQ in the hope that he has four terrific rounds to ensure safety from the Q-School gallows.

8).One interested spectator from afar will be Nicolas Colsaerts - the $677K he's earned this year as a "Non-Member" would be just inside the Top 125 of the Tour's money list, $57K ahead of Billy Mayfair, currently in 125th position. If Colsaerts' earnings remain higher than the #125 man after Sunday, he'll be entitled to apply for Full Membership for 2013. Peter Hanson, Ishikawa and David Lynn would also be eligible to apply for Membership.

9).Next week sees PGA Tour Q-School Stage 2 and Champions Tour Final Qualifying. Among those seeking their senior fortunes are:
Marc Farry (France), Anders Forsbrand, Peter Fowler, Barry Lane, Santiago Luna, Miguel Angel Martin, Mark Mouland, Eduardo Romero and Andrew Sherborne.
Plus a collection of Tour journeymen and two more distinguished winners, Blaine McCallister and US Open winner Steve Jones (why he doesn't have some sort of exemption is beyond me).

10).I quite fancy recent winners Jonas Blixt and Two Gloves Gainey to continue their rich vein of form this week, but there'd be no more popular winner than the 2008 Champion Davis Love. At 98th on the moneylist he's almost assured of completing his 27th consecutive season in the Top 100 - a top 30 finish would ensure his 18th year million dollar year on the trot.
For those scoring at home, that all adds up to career earnings of $42M. A terrific career with more than his fair share of disappointments, none more than six weeks ago in Chicago, and you can be sure that, if Mickey Mouse pushes the boat out again next year, DLIII will be gracing the field as he usually does.

Kwini - Appleton to Blackpool! Was going to move sometime but bad timing for Pompey!!
Golf stuff excellent as ever btw!

puligny ,
Yup, I mentioned yesterday that the prospect of Apples leaving was almost as bad as Obama losing.
Not sure if there's any buzz on his successor (pity we won't get Howe), but I'd say he richly earned the Blackpool job - hope it's not too early for him, especially as he could lose a couple of young players in January.

Nice write-up as usual Kwini.

Andrew Sherborne??? He's trying to play the seniors in the U.S.? Used to know him as a good amateur from the first club I was at as a junior. Could play a bit but definitely a bit of a tw@t. Still, good luck to him.

nbs,
It's all a bit of a puzzle to me, why these guys at his level think they can ratchet their games up to the level to, first of all qualify which is very difficult, and then compete on the Champo Tour.
Fact is, it's almost impossible to sustain a Champions Tour career without having a decent PGA Tour career behind you, or at least (as in the case of McNulty) being a genius putter.

In the past 30 years, you could say that only Henning, Bland, McNulty, Des Smyth, Canizares, Hobday, Rodger Davis and Mark James (probably missed one or two) have really thrived for more than a couple of years.

I'd say Barry Lane has a good shot, but none of the rest of them. More difficult every year.

So Obama got a 4 year exemption and Romney back to Q-school. Maybe Mitt should include Zacher and Simpson in his campaign staff next time around. I hear they are well connected.

Nice write-up, kwini

Interesting to hear that Colsaerts still has a reasonable chance to make it on the PGAT for next year. We'll see what happens...

Solo 2nd would be just great for Blixt, but a win will be even better as it would move him inside the top 50...

With Overton and JBH opting out, this is begining to feel more like a strong Web.com event...

Low scoring this morning and most of the best scores are on the "Palm" course which plays an average of two shots easier than the "Magnolia" course.

They'll be playing one round on each, Thursday and Friday, then Rounds 3 and 4 on the Magnolia.

Conditions mild and dry all week, getting warmer (to mid 70's) and breezier as the weekend goes on.

Halfway through the afternoon "wave" and Camilo has done his parlous position a power of good with a first round 65, tied for the early lead with Tommy Gainey.
Leading scores at the Palm Course three shots better than at the Magnolia, which makes Brian Davis's "efforts" on the Palm look even more miserable.

But Russell Knox has made a good start, four under par for his first ten holes. Gary Christian with it all to do on Friday.

decent interview with Gary Christian from earlier in the week

http://www.newstalk.ie/2012/sport/the-40-year-old-rookie-gary-christian-on-off-the-ball-last-night/

hend0,
He's a pretty good interview isn't he, much different perspective from some of these guys who get on the Tour straight from College and behave like entitled brats for the rest of their career.

The boys and entitled brats are off and running in Orlando this morning, Russell Knox starting the day in 4th place. But he needs to maintain this pace if he's to make significant progress up the moneylist.

Job One for Knox, and Gary Christian, Chopra and Karlsson is to make the cut at the very least - all on pace to do that but certainly need solid rounds today.

Randon fact......Gary Cristians parents live next door to my in laws in Ferring, West Sussex.
Apparently nobody more suprised than them that he is suddenly earning some decent money.

Kwini, did you realise this was a Pro-Am event? Funny that it's not been marketed as such.

Grumps, Yes, always has been I think.


A bit warmer today and scores are warmer too. But Russell Knox treading water at even par after 16 holes. Much better needed over the weekend.

Karlsson has made the cut, Chopra and Christian just setting out.

Brian Davis and Greg Owen have concluded their tournament and season.


Digs,
Imagine your in-laws next door neighbours are surprised to find their son is mentioned frequently on the blog we all waste our time on. Wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see him in the broadcast booth before long - and I mean that in a positive way!

Anyone been watching the Disney tournament?

Incredible scenes with leader Charlie Beljan suffering from heart arrythmia, shortness of breath, but being eight under par after 11 holes and struggling thru the final seven. In normal circumstances he'd presumably have walked in - as it was, he's leading, has a chance to save his card for next year, but his kneeling down, sitting down, lying down after every shot.

He finally drags his arse to the scoring table and hopefully gets the medical attention that looks about two hours overdue.

Now, I can understand him wanting to finish his round, but can't comprehend why the Tour didn't have a doctor walking with him - at one time he almost keels over and a couple of pseudo medics come over on their bikes but, good lord, didn't look like you'd trust them to check for athletes foot.

And then, he finally finishes, is completely overcome with emotion, yet no-one offers him a cart-ride to the scorer's tent. I tell you, sometimes the Tour just leaves you speechless.

So presumably he'll be off to hospital for treatment, but will he be admitted, will he be good to go for Round 3?

Extraordinary.

And I was going to crack a joke about two Europeans in the lead - a Beljan and a Swede (Stenson, who's sporting a very wispy goatee).

I don't know Kwini, I have suffered through Athletes Foot for almost my entire life. It can be tricky!

But yes, it was scary out there.

Split tees and threesome didn't give as long as he might like tomorrow morning for recovery.

10:55 am Tee time.

Twosomes, he would have started about 12:30 tomorrow.

Looks like Colsaerts nonmember earnings is going to very close to the top 125 number. Probably about 50/50 right now.

double post

This is the evening report on Charlie Beljan from the PGA Tour:

http://www.pgatour.com/2012/tournaments/r045/11/09/wacker-friday-beljan/index.html#

Only time will tell whether he tees it up tomorrow.

Still don't feel as if the Tour took the precautions it might have done - imagine if it was a superstar in this condition . . . . . . .

I showed my girlfriend - who is a doctor - all the info and his symptoms and she said it is nothing more than a panic attack. I guess "serious health issues" makes a better story than sportsman craps himself the first time he encounters serious pressure.

Mac,
This was hardly the first time he encountered serious pressure but the last time, biggest time, he got completely out of sync when in the Greenbrier shake-up - different symptoms then though. He started playing more quickly, almost fell, etc etc.

But look, it's not good - and he first saw a doctor about it today on the practice range when he wasn't feeling good.

My point though, wasn't about his condition, but why wouldn't the Tour take more interest in it when it was obviously affecting him (not to mention his playing partner) to the extent it was?

It's not necessarily a serious health issue (but maybe it was, don't know yet), but it clearly affected him seriously, whatever it was.

Not sure about your last sentence there . . . . . . .

Kwini

"It's not necessarily a serious health issue (but maybe it was, don't know yet)"

It seems we do know as both a set of trained paramedics and a several doctors have said it was a panic attack.

Dont want to argue about this but having now seen the article you posted, even it says he has suffered panic attacks of late. My girlfriend said panic attack is a very easy diagnosis and that the paremedics would have been able to asses his situation on the 10th tee very accurately.

The treatment is to sit down and have someone help you calm down. What more would you have liked to have been done?

Although I agree I doubt it was to do with facing pressure and my last sentence was a little unfair.



Back to your original post, I cant decide whether I like the lower key nature of this time of year or whether it would be better to have fully fledged pga tour events?

At least at the moment the weakened fields are expected, next season this events will just look weak should the big guns stay away.

Mac,
All I know is that, if someone was working for me and suffered an extended episode like Beljan clearly suffered, I'd've been getting proper medical help in a hurry. I remember when David Toms suffered faintness a few years ago on course, they got a doctor out there and had him on a cart before you could say "84 Lumber".

(And, by the way, my resident medical expert, the one I sleep with and who has some personal experience of this sort of thing and was watching Beljan with me, similarly couldn't understand why there wasn't a doctor with him.)

What we DO know is that late last night it still wasn't clear whether he'd spend the night in hospital; regardless he planned to play today unless prohibited by medical advice. Good luck to him.


This Disney field is pathetic, but most of the time I enjoy these events, The McGladrey was terrific with a decent field on a very attractive course. As to the prognosis for these tournaments, I'd think a lot of the better players, if not the best, will be playing at least some of them.

No point in spending too much time on what we don't yet know: Beljan's condition and whether he will play today.

But some things we DO know based upon the 78 (or 77?) golfers who made the cut.

Gary Christian missed out and he'll be joined at Q-School Final Stage by, among other, Tour winners: Lunde, Petrovic, Slocum.

And some notables (kind of) are headed to Stage 2:
Joe Durant
Kris Blanks
Erik Compton
Atwal
Danny Lee

Others will join them depending upon their weekend efforts. Europeans, with roughly what they need to do, are:
~Russell Knox, likely needs a solo 3rd to reach the top 125, a top ten to reach the top 150.

~Karlsson: Probably needs a runner-up finish for the top 125, top ten for 150th.

~Chopra and Cejka either need a win, in which case the top 125 is moot, or a runner up finish for the top 150.

There will be about two dozen Major winners or Ryder/Presidents Cup veterans in next week's Stage 2.

kwinigolfer wrote:

2).With the confirmation that the HSBC Champions will become a fully-fledged PGA Tour event next year, we now have six or seven (Disney would be the 7th) events with which to start the 2013/2014 season in autumn 2013. They are, in no particular order because we have yet to see the schedule:
The McGladrey
CIMB
HSBC
Las Vegas
Fry's.com
Mayakoba

Kwini... great writeup as usual... As per the above.. the season starting fall portion of 2013-14 schedule is about 95% firmed up.... It will be:

Sep 16-22 - TOUR Championship by Coca-Cola
Sep 23-30 - OPEN (Web.com Playoff Final)
Oct 01-06 - President's Cup

- - - Start 2013-14 Season - - -

Oct 07-13 - Frys.com Open
Oct 14-20 - Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (Las Vegas)
Oct 21-27 - CIMB Malaysia
Oct 28-Nov 3 - WGC-HSBC
Nov 04-10 - The McGladrey Classic
Nov 11-17 - Mayakoba Golf Classic
Nov 18-24 - OPEN (possible Disney or other new)
Nov 25-30 - OPEN Thanksgiving Week

Frys, Vegas, HSBC, McGladrey are already announced on their respective websites, and Mayakoba has indicated they are 90% the week of Nov 11-17.

robo, Thanks.

I'd think McGladrey is right at the extreme of its weather window - and I've heard nothing in this week's broadcast to suggest one way or the other that "Disney" will be back.

What do you make of the claims that golfers with "conditional" status (incl web.com and Q-School grads) will have fewer opportunities next year?
Of course, it's true that there will be fewer tournaments so arithmetically it's inevitable. But there are expanded fields in at least half a dozen tournaments and, with the increased number of "International" members playing a schedule on their own Tour, I'd think there will be relatively little change.

Increasingly crucial though for the "conditional" guys to get off to a good start . . . . .

Already lots of chatter about the number of overseas players contesting Stage 2 this coming week.

One more story line to follow at Disney... Nicolas Colsaerts.

He's made it clear he wants to join the PGAT and if Disney were to end today... he would earn his Special Temporary Membership (STM) and thus be exempt for next year. To earn PGAT status Colsaerts needs to finish equivelent or better than #125 on the final 2012 money list. (Peter Hanson and Ishikawa have also earned STM and will take it. David Lynn has also earned STM, I haven't heard on him.)

Colsaerts has $677,011 in non-member earnings. Barring a WD, Maggert moves ahead of Colsaerts by making the cut (projected #124), but as it stands now Colsaerts is ahead of projected #125 (Rod Pampling, projected $620,893) going into the weekend. There are just too many possibilities to predict Colsaerts chances... but just scanning who did and did not make the cut... I'm guessing it's probably better than say 60-70% Colsaerts will remain inside the number and get his PGAT card.

Yes, I did mention Colsaerts in 8). above - I'd say he's even more likely than 60% - 70% to get his card. Key guy for him right now is the non-Belgian Beljan!

Pampling likely had a poor night's sleep.

kwinigolfer wrote:
I'd think McGladrey is right at the extreme of its weather window - and I've heard nothing in this week's broadcast to suggest one way or the other that "Disney" will be back.

I'm almost wondering if Disney want's to be back. From what I'm hearing it's not like there is an all out effort to find a new sponsor. If true, I wouldn't know why... but perhaps Disney no longer feels a PGAT event is necessary within it's larger business plan? Again... just guessing on that one.

kwinigolfer wrote:
What do you make of the claims that golfers with "conditional" status (incl web.com and Q-School grads) will have fewer opportunities next year?
Of course, it's true that there will be fewer tournaments so arithmetically it's inevitable. But there are expanded fields in at least half a dozen tournaments and, with the increased number of "International" members playing a schedule on their own Tour, I'd think there will be relatively little change.

Increasingly crucial though for the "conditional" guys to get off to a good start . . . . .

From what I'm hearing, it might be even tougher on the Category 25 (web.com/Q) and Category 29 (#126-150) guys than they're even saying. Of course you have the 650+ playing spots lost in the five events not on the schedule... but they're being replaced by only about 90 with the expanded fields and redirected sponsors exemptions. And from what I'm hearing, a lot of the fully exempt "rank and file guys" from categories 1-19 (who don't have multiple year exemptions) are planning on adding an "extra event or two" since they no longer have the fall series to fall back either. That could eat up an additional 120-180 playing spots right there... so the net loss of playing opportunities to Cat 25 and below could be more in the 700-750 range.

So yeah... it's CRITICAL next year for every player in Cat. 25 and below to make the most of every opportunity. That first reshuffle is probably going to be the most important EVER on the PGAT. All things being equal to a normal year... I'm thinking the advancing number out of Category 25 next year will be more in the 10-13 player range instead of it's more historical 18-20.

Interesting. Something slightly counter-intuitive for me in there somewhere; just don't see what there is to persuade these guys to get religion but time will tell.

But I AM surprised that Mayakoba is being "allowed" to bail without a replacement. You never know, perhaps there's a thought in PVB that the Tour needs a bit of a shake up, get rid of some dead wood.

Meanwhile, Mike Weir is likely to take a "career money" exemption after a year in which he'll make precisely zero cuts on Tour.

kwinigolfer wrote:

There will be about two dozen Major winners or Ryder/Presidents Cup veterans in next week's Stage 2.

John Daly will not be one of them. Incidentally, Daly WDed in Singapore, after being 11 over in 29 holes.

Who does Daly think he is?! I'll give you one guess:
Withdrew citing "fatigue".

Daly hasn't done Q-School since 1990, it's beneath him, don't you know. Don't somehow think we'll see much of him on next year's PGA Tour.

There will be at about 190 active players with "full" Playing privileges on the PGAT next year:

125: 2012 Money List
25: Web . Com Tour Grads
25: (and Ties): Q-school Grads
~5: Residual Exemptions from prior Wins (Yang, Cabrera, Woodland, Cink, Immelman)
~5: Players using Top 25 (or Top 50) Lifetime Exemptions or Medical
Exemptions: (Leonard, Goosen, Appleby, Verplank, DiMarco, Kelly)
~4: Non-Members earning enough (Lynn, Hanson, Ishikawa, Colsaerts)
-----
~189+


With only a 135-140 spots open each week, the player on the bottom of the pecking order has to depend on an absentee rate of about 30% in order to get to play the tournament.

In my opinion, the top 125 should be reduced at least to the EuroT number of 110. Jeff Maggert was nearly guaranteed to get stay within the top 125 going into this week and he really has a had a terrible year. One Top 10 (in the T5 Humana) and two other top 25s (Sony and Frys).

I think the PGAT allowing this mediocrity to retain playing privileges is hurting the overall product of the tour.

And a player like Jeff Maggert does not have to worry about his place on the totem poll. He is going to play nearly every event that he want. He only gets passed if a QS/Web player wins a tournament.

Sounds like Beljan's good(?) to go, but against doctor's recommendation - this will be interesting.

kwinigolfer wrote:Sounds like Beljan's good(?) to go, but against doctor's recommendation...

Hope the guy has some common sense in the end and if he has again problems he just gets out of there quick and takes some time off. It's not like it's the end of the world (that's only gonna happen in ~6 weeks time on 21/12/12 according to the Mayan oracle...), he's earned over half a million dollars this year, so life can't be that bad, even if you lose your job for a while...
I only watched a bit of the 'highlights' (I'd rather call them lowlights) of what happened yeterday, and to be honest, apart from all the sympathy that I felt for him as anyone would, it all put me off a bit and I for one wouldn't like to see again these kind of scenes, pretty disturbing stuff for everyone, tv viewers, spectators, playing partners, caddies, etc...

Good luck to him anyway...

Well, no great distress so far, Beljan keeping pace towards the top of a packed leaderboard.
Camilo off to a fine start, Russell Knox playing with Brian Gay but Gay's magic is not really rubbing off on Mr.Knox.
Double bogey finish from Karlsson and it will also most certainly mean he's back at it next week at Stage 2.

And this afternoon's panic attack is at Villa Park.

I wonder if the final group on Sunday has ever had three guys with the same first name.

Could happen to tomorrow

Charles Howell
Charlie Wi
Charlie Beljan


I would not put it past the USGA to do it in the first round of the US Open.

Edit, and just as I post this. Charles Howell snap hooks off the tee on #17 into the water.

Premature extrapolation!

So far, so good for Nicolas Colsaerts, but Messrs Knox, Karlsson and Cejka have a mountain to climb. And then there's Chopra who is moving in the right direction but has probably left things a bit late - three months late.

Camilo has put himself in a promising position but needs to finish his round off; bogeyed 18 for the second day running.

Otherwise, it's the Charlie Beljan show - he did pretty darn well on one hour's sleep last night, didn't even get to take his golf shoes off. Can't imagine he'd still be competing in any other sport, let alone leading.

GPB wrote:There will be at about 190 active players with "full" Playing privileges on the PGAT next year:

125: 2012 Money List
25: Web . Com Tour Grads
25: (and Ties): Q-school Grads
~5: Residual Exemptions from prior Wins (Yang, Cabrera, Woodland, Cink, Immelman)
~5: Players using Top 25 (or Top 50) Lifetime Exemptions or Medical
Exemptions: (Leonard, Goosen, Appleby, Verplank, DiMarco, Kelly)
~4: Non-Members earning enough (Lynn, Hanson, Ishikawa, Colsaerts)
-----
~189+


With only a 135-140 spots open each week, the player on the bottom of the pecking order has to depend on an absentee rate of about 30% in order to get to play the tournament.

In my opinion, the top 125 should be reduced at least to the EuroT number of 110. Jeff Maggert was nearly guaranteed to get stay within the top 125 going into this week and he really has a had a terrible year. One Top 10 (in the T5 Humana) and two other top 25s (Sony and Frys).

I think the PGAT allowing this mediocrity to retain playing privileges is hurting the overall product of the tour.

And a player like Jeff Maggert does not have to worry about his place on the totem poll. He is going to play nearly every event that he want. He only gets passed if a QS/Web player wins a tournament.

Actually I'm thinking the problem for playing spots next year will be even worse than usual. I have next years exempt list in categories 1-24 and BEFORE the Category 25 web.com/Q-school guys at 152 players... and that's not counting the 17-18 spots allocated for Cat's. 11-16 & 24 (SE's, 4-spot, past champions, section players, top-10's). Granted the Category 25 guys will get some of those 4-spots and SE's... but still.

The problem seems to be everything that could go wrong with keeping the exempt number low for next year... is going wrong.

I believe you are correct in that all 4 eligible non-members will join (assuming Colsaerts makes it, but the other 3 are verbally committed). And this doesn't count Kaymer who's talking off and on again he might take membership in 2013, then he won't, then he might... who knows.

I have only 3 players playing out of the Career top-25 or 50 category... Leonard, Appleby and Kelly. I think DiMarco used his top-50 in 2011 and I know he used his top-25 in 2009. Goosen and Verplank will probably start the year on medicals... but Goosen will be able to get any exemption he wants... so he will likely play out of #126-150 for the rest of the year after he uses whatever medical he gets. I think Verplank is going to get around 12-15 starts on his medical. EDIT: I just remembered... Verplank is 48. He might as well use his top-25 now... that is unless he's planning on playing the PGAT past age 50

Speaking of medicals... 2013 looks like a year where a LOT of guys will be using them... You've got 6 guys, at least 5 who are expected to play from the start of the season with 11 or more starts left (Oberholser, Snyder, Parnevik, Short, Sutherland & Hart)...

Anyway... here are my number breakdowns of players per category: Players are counted ONLY in the highest category for which they qualify.

1 = 8 players
2 = 5 players
3 = 5 players
4 = 4 players
5 = 3 players
6 = 6 players
7 = 1 player
8 = 0 players
9 = 39 players
10 = 3 players

11-16 & 24 = Up to 17-18 players

17 = 1 players
18 = 4 players
19 = 59 players
20 = 4 players
21 = 6-8 players
22 = 1 player
23 = 1 player

25 = 49=53

Bottom line... with roughly 700-750 less playing spots in 2013 season (see my prior post to Kwini)... and more exempt players above Category 25... it looks to be lean pickings for the Web.com/Q-school guys this year. And for the roughly dozen guys trying to play out of 126-150... REALLY Tough, except for probably Goosen and God forbid John Daly...

Fascinating stuff robo,
Think DiMarco has used a Medical, Top 25 and Top 50 roughly 2009 - 2011. Against that I believe Mike Weir will take his "Top 25".
Jerry Kelly must be sh1tt1ng bricks on his and CHIII's respective finishes this week!

My only counter to the hypothesis is that many of the increasing number of International players will play tournaments on their home circuit also, which should free up slots in the first six weeks, and then in two or three week-periods in the summer.

Anyway, Tournament Directors at places like San Antonio, Dallas, Hartford, John Deere, Canada etc must be rubbing their hands!

kwinigolfer wrote:Fascinating stuff robo,
Think DiMarco has used a Medical, Top 25 and Top 50 roughly 2009 - 2011. Against that I believe Mike Weir will take his "Top 25".
Jerry Kelly must be sh1tt1ng bricks on his and CHIII's respective finishes this week!

My only counter to the hypothesis is that many of the increasing number of International players will play tournaments on their home circuit also, which should free up slots in the first six weeks, and then in two or three week-periods in the summer.

Anyway, Tournament Directors at places like San Antonio, Dallas, Hartford, John Deere, Canada etc must be rubbing their hands!

I agree that there will be "periods" where the internationals are mostly absent... and that will help... but still... with ALL factors... I'm guessing even fewer events in 2013 will be able to take ALL of category 25 than in the most recent 3 or 4 years.

Bottom line... If I had to guess... the net effect off all this will be a reduction of 2-3 tournaments on AVERAGE for Category 25 web.com/Q-school guys.. AT the completion of the Wyndham. One full tournament for most of them will be lost at Mayakoba... and the other 1-2 will be because of more guys in categories ahead of them... and slightly more play by some of those players above Cat 25. Then you have no fall series... so on the season... the Web.com/Q-school guys will probably lose 4-6 events average (compared to maybe 2 or 3 for the lower category 19 guys)

And I agree with you that some of those "have not" tournaments might be seeing some better fields. Not huge better... but better. IMO every "regular" event from after the U.S. Open, ESPECIALLY the RBC and Wyndham will take on far more importance than years past. And especially with 2013 the last year to earn status via a money list... it's all about FedEx ranking from 2014 on.

EDIT: And no kidding on CHIII and Kelly.... Jerry only has about 60K cushion...

Time (about nine months of it) will tell on all the above.

And time (about nine hours or less of it) will tell on the composition of some categories and Q-School fields following the Disney denouement.

Much will depend upon how Charlie Beljan deals with his day, whether he reprises his panic attack distress or echoes the late, great Corporal Jones, "Don't panic".

If Beljan can hold things together he'll have himself a win and leapfrog over about 75 golfers in the money list. A few wobbles and he could fail to reach the Top 125 in money, to the benefit of his fellow Beljan, Colsaerts.

European outlook is pretty grim:

Blixt needs a miracle to reach the top 30 and a card from Billy Payne - ain't gonna happen.

Stenson has nothing to play for so could be a threat to win.

Chopra needs a win to avoid Stage 2 Q-School. Stranger things have happened. Not many though.

Knox needs, arguably, a top ten, could make it with top 12, to reach the all-important leading 150 on the moneylist.

While Karlsson certainly needs at least a top ten and probably threw away his chances with a double bogey on Saturday's final hole.

Cejka in a hopeless position.

Could be a bit windy today so scores likely to be slightly higher than Saturday's.

And: They're off!

Russell Knox doing what he has to do - three under par after six holes.

Would think he needs to shoot 67 or 68 to make the "150" for sure, about a 63 to reach the "125".

Four under after seven holes - are we going to see something special here?

Scoring very sporty so far - where's that wind they've been forecasting?

Rex Hoggard's take on the likelihood of the Tour returning to Disney. Not much by the sounds of this:

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/rex-hoggard/is-disney-event-coming-to-an-end/

Good day for Sweden so far, Stenson up to T2, Blixt a couple under, Karlsson going like a train, and Chopra hit a fairway. It's all happening.

Russell Knox update: EEEEGUL!!

T2 now: Why don't you just go on and win it my son??!!

He's tied for 2nd with Stenson and Karlsson's still going gangbusters.

Six under for Knox after ten holes.

Robo: Aren't players required to use their top 50 exemption before their top 25 exemption?

And doesn't Weir still have a top 50 or top 25 exemption left?

GPB,
As mentioned above, Mike Weir has bith his "25" and "50" remaining.

Come on Russell Knox! I reckon playing he needs a 64 at least, one under for his final three holes. Only missed two greens but in negative territory in the putting stat, 67th for the week. Just one putt your last three greens!

Robo: the loss of Mayakoba is not that big of deal. In terms of money, yes it is. But in terms of their chances to make the FE playoffs, not so much.

IMO, The Web*com/QS grads are not competing against the Top tier players as much as they are competing against the journeyman and rank/file player for the last 25 spots in the top 125.

Those players from 100-125 will also not have Mayakoba to play, so basically it is a wash.

The problem with the Web*com/QS grads is that the top 125 have priority over all 50+ grafds. #120 can Miss the Cut in his first 20 tournaments and still get to play Travelers, while the QS/Web guys have to make sure that there is a spot available.

I heard someone say.

In golf, The hardest thing to do is to get a PGAT card via Q-school or Web*com tour.
The second hardest thing to do is get into the top 125.
The third hardest thing to do is to get out the top 125 once you are in the top 125.

I think the top 125 should be reduced to top 100.

Players from #101-#125 should be given same status as QS and Web players and subject to the shuffle. Make the players that are barely skating into the top 125 work their Arses off to keep their card.

Not the way we wanted Knox's 2012 Tour odyssey to end - bogey, bogey on 17 and 18 and that eliminates any chance to climb in to the Top 125.
But: He should be secure for the Top 150 which gives him very sketchy conditional status next year, and exempts him in to Final Stage Q-School.

According to the "Strokes Gained - putting" stat, he lost a shot each round to the field this week - the clear difference between a Tour card and Q-School.

I'd say he proved he can have a career on Tour though, so let's see how he rebounds from this disappointment.

And I'd say that we can call Nicolas Colsaerts a PGA Tour player for 2013, provided he accepts membership.