AI Expectations?

Every Autumn I am optimistic that England will suddenly turn a corner and show an edge of domination against the super powers from the southern hemisphere, it never happens. Still, I remain optimistic, this year is no different with a raft of new young players brought into the squad over the past year it remains rational in my mind that suddenly the squad will click and we will return to the glory days of the early noughties. It is often the temptation I feel for supporters to erge management to select young and exciting players to replace current incumbents, particularly when the team is underachieving.
I think Lancaster has struck the correct balance, he is not scared to bring new players in and has showed loyalty to those more established players perhaps not showing their best form and importantly seems to be developing a strong culture within the squad.

Sam Warburton has come out and said that he thinks Wales should be targeting a clean sweep this autumn, when I read that I thought wow thats a bit over confident but in fairness thats the sort of noises you want to here from players, positive mental attitude and all that. How realistic is it though? Something like 14 consecutive defeats to southern hemisphere opposition surely makes it difficult to be optimistic.. but when you consider that many of those defeats more recently have been by very small margins and that some of the individuals in the squad have looked every bit as good as there SH counter parts, well its easy to find reason for optimism.

Ireland too, forget that it was the all blacks, Ireland should not be losing 60-0 to anyone. An inconsistent world cup and 6 nations, whitewash summer and a head coach that is becoming rapidly more unpopular, where is the optimism going to come from? Easy, a world cup defeat of the wallabies, a narrow defeat by the all blacks (i thought Ireland were the better team) and rampant provinces in the HC. To me it is totally plausible that Ireland could emerge from the autumn victorious.

Scotland, despite the plight of the national team in the 6 nations and their standing in the international game generally are always capable of a shock result against the SH giants. So, what the odds we flip southern hemisphere expectation on its head a win more tests than them! I know its more hope than expectation but every year I have renewed belief that its all going to change but my money is staying in my pocket..

HQ Matt,the AI`s consists of 6NH sides playing somewhere between18-24 matchs versus SH sides at the end of a long season.There squads are a mix of hardened campaigners and young guns as always.ALL the tourists will target sides the perceive as easier targets and will introduce youngsters accordingly.For them it is as much about development as playing WITHOUT risking defeat.In the case of SA they are not only injury weakened but trying to develop more flexible gameplans.Wales who have only beaten them once may from there point of view consider Ireland or Scotland more difficult on recent results.NZ consider Wales and England more difficult on past results and will start with slightly weaker sides.Player management means the same team can`t play all four matches.
From the NH sides point of view forget pyschobabble and inferiority complexes pick your best team and give it your best shot.
You are not expected to win all your matches against the top 3 sides in the world just give it a lash.
England could`nt have a harder row to hoe,2 out of 4 would be good,3 out of 4 outstanding. All four would be incredible but it is the target to aim for.

As a Scottish fan I would be happy with one win, very happy with 2 wins and extatic with 3 wins.

Realistically 1 win against Tonga is all I think is feasable and even Tonga are a tough team to play and are more than capable of beating Scotland.

Victory against the boks is unlikely but Murrayfiled has been a struggle for them in their recent visits. Should the boks play to their Strength and spread the ball about a bit they'll win I think, if they allow Scotland to drag them into an attritional forwards battle with the boot being the deciding Factor South Africa could (however unlikely it migth seem) be surprised.

As for the All Blacks game.... we have next to no chance.

For England:

4 defeats - disastrous.
1 win - poor
2 wins - Acceptable
3 wins - good
4 wins - miracle.


We have to beat Fiji and as a minimum look to beat one from Aus and SA. Beating both would exceed my expectations but would be a sensible stretch target for the team to achieve.
While I hope the squad and management believe they are capable of beating NZ - I cannot see it.

3/4 for Wales would suggest progress 2/4 would suggest that we remain a very good team but lack that extra power, dynamism and nous to mix it with the top 3. Gatland has chosen 4 difficult matches IMO which I'm not that keen on even though I see his rationale. I would have preferred Fiji, Arg, SA and NZ as we know Aus too well at the moment and vice versa. Irrespective of outcomes these remain exciting times for Wales and people conveniently forget that we are the current GS champs and performed well in the RWC last year. We do need to take it to the next level though starting with a ruthless performance against Argentina. Looking at the team that might be difficult to achieve; not impossible but difficult against a powerful and well organised Argentinian team who maximise what they have got and play to their strengths.

Being realistic I think we must be targeting 3 wins from 4, with the All Blcaks being our one game that is an acceptatble loss. However I would not be suprised if we scape away with only 1 or 2 wins (Samoa and/or Argentina)

LondonTiger wrote:For England:

4 defeats - disastrous.
1 win - poor
2 wins - Acceptable
3 wins - good
4 wins - miracle.

+1, but for Wales

HQ matt wrote:Sam Warburton has come out and said that he thinks Wales should be targeting a clean sweep this autumn, when I read that I thought wow thats a bit over confident but in fairness thats the sort of noises you want to here from players, positive mental attitude and all that. How realistic is it though? Something like 14 consecutive defeats to southern hemisphere opposition surely makes it difficult to be optimistic.. but when you consider that many of those defeats more recently have been by very small margins and that some of the individuals in the squad have looked every bit as good as there SH counter parts, well its easy to find reason for optimism.

It is standard for players to think this aye. Geoff Parling said the same thing in Rugby World. Of course they have to believe they can win all four, or they will be beaten from the start.

I think tight wins in our first two games, maybe a tight win (but more likely a close defeat) v Aus and a fairly comfortable win for NZ. I like the order of our games to be honest (bar maybe it would be better to have Australia third, NZ fourth). The thing that of course lets us down in the Oz game is missing players (not being released by their clubs).

I wouldn't be overly surprised if Argentina turned us over this weekend, but think we should just be okay at home and we should beat Samoa (depending on what team Howler puts out).

My expectations of England are low.....as they have been since 2003. Looking at things pessimistically:

- new hooker who might develop into a decent player but will take time to deliver against quality opposition especially with his throwing. Hopefully Hartley will return and Youngs can contribute off the bench in future games.

- Second row lacks enforcer/ hard yards type of person. Leaves Eng open to be bullied/ dominated by quality packs.

- back row combo is new and therefore needs time to gel plus a specialist openside is required

- flyhalf....Flood is not a serious quality international 10. Lacks the leadership and confidence to take games by the scruff of the neck, but is probably our best option to date. Hopefully Burns can save us but not just yet?

- total lack of creativity and cutting edge from our centres means our wingers rarely get given the ball in space

I admit I could play the role of scrooge quite well, but I fear the above all will make England a dull and poor side this Autumn. If you pushed me to list some optimistic points then I go for:

- happy with the props and our scrum should be stable

- lineout should be fine so overall our possession stats should be fine

- Care and Youngs at 9 should ask questions of the opposition

- our defence should be solid and with Tuilagi and Barrett in midfield it may even be good enough to win us a game V the Aussies or SA

- fullback options are also decent

Overall I think England may get just the win over Fiji with 3 depressing defeats to follow. Home advantage means we should be aiming for 3 wins, but I fear that is fanciful. I do hope I am wrong!!!

Of the other home nations I rate Wales the highest, but I think they lack strength in depth and when key players get injured it does have a massive affect. Losing Adam Jones is a big blow and not picking Tipuric is criminal. I think at the conclusion of the AIs everyone will be bemoaning the poor quality of Northern Hemisphere rugby as weakened Southern Hemisphere sides conquer us all again.

Other than that I am quite a happy bloke

I will only be happy if we win all three, if we don't then Meyer will not have convinced me he is on the right path.

Ireland were the better team at the breakdown in the second test HQ matt but NZ were the better team. When a team forces you into mistakes and dominates you in a vital area of the game, the team needs to come together.

NZ is 4 wins and nothing less. But they are AB expectations and apply to all seasons and matches. So in part, I find Warburton's comments refreshing. I don't like this 2 out of 4 wins is a bare minimum as you are already conceding defeat before the whistle has blown.

- Second row lacks enforcer/ hard yards type of person. Leaves Eng open to be bullied/ dominated by quality packs.

One of my major criticisms...but in Launchbury on the bench we have a serious prospect coming through.

- back row combo is new and therefore needs time to gel plus a specialist openside is required

Im not getting this arguement....
1) Robshaw has played the last 3 years or so as an openside...and been pretty much outstanding for the majority of that.
2) Depending on where they got the stats from...he was ranked as the top turnover 7 in the world during the summer.
3) He has all the attributes to be a top 7.
4) I dont believe the role of an out and out fetcher at 7 exists anymore anyway....

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Being realistic I think we must be targeting 3 wins from 4, with the All Blcaks being our one game that is an acceptatble loss. However I would not be suprised if we scape away with only 1 or 2 wins (Samoa and/or Argentina)

+1

hugehandoff, that's a good assessment of England's strengths and weaknesses, but I think you draw an overly pessimistic conclusion. I would be surprised if England don't get at least 2 wins.

For Wales, we are in that awful situation where 1 win only would be depressing, but is eminently possible (it's far from imposisble we'll lose all 4). If we beat Argentina, Samoa (always a bugbear, we always seem to underestimate them to our cost), and Aus and give NZ a respectable game, in the circumstances (no Adam Jones or Lydiate) I'd be very happy. I don't care about margins, just wins will do thanks very much!

Well after our tonking by the boks and ABs in the championships, I would like, no I would expect, no, I would insist, no I would insist I demand, no actually even order at least a clean sweep for the wallabies!!!

Better still by at least 5 tries (all converted of course) per game more than the oppo!!!

I think Ireland has to get 3.

Meyers did an interview and all he talked about with Lambie was kick, kick and more kicking.

We have to consider ourselves equal to SA as they also have called up players that our guys play with.

I eill be interested to see how Italy do against the big boys also as it could bode well for the 6Ns

Who do ye think will get the most trys

LondonTiger wrote:For England:

4 defeats - disastrous.
1 win - poor
2 wins - Acceptable
3 wins - good
4 wins - miracle.


We have to beat Fiji and as a minimum look to beat one from Aus and SA. Beating both would exceed my expectations but would be a sensible stretch target for the team to achieve.
While I hope the squad and management believe they are capable of beating NZ - I cannot see it.

Think that's fairly reasonable, although I think 2 wins and 2 absolute tonkings would be serious cause for concern. We should beat Fiji without too much difficulty, and then I think we probably start as marginal favourites (based on home advantage and the injury concerns of the opposition) against both Aus and SA - winning both is possible but I'd probably put our odds for 2 wins around 1 in 3.

Beating the ABs? Well, if we've won the 3 preceding games and gain confidence from those there is a chance. Oh, and if we can introduce a handicap system that means New Zealand aren't allowed to wear studded boots...

OzT wrote:Well after our tonking by the boks and ABs in the championships, I would like, no I would expect, no, I would insist, no I would insist I demand, no actually even order at least a clean sweep for the wallabies!!!

Better still by at least 5 tries (all converted of course) per game more than the oppo!!!

I do think that Oz are in a good position, Everyone will be expecting an easier game as they performed poorly by their standards.

I think for England, beating Fiji and one of Australia/South Africa is a must. If we can win all 3 of those games then it will be very, very promising for the upcoming Six Nations. As for the All Blacks game, we're not expected to get a result so even a loss wouldn't be bad. Just as long as it isn't a big loss.

Wales MUST win 3 out of 4 for it to be considered a successful AI. Anything else IMO would be seen as complete failure

Now you're just copying me as usual Bedford - Just refer to my post rather than plagiarise next time mate Hows it going anyways

I hope im not the doom monger here....or just keeping things real...

BUT

We looked seriously underpowered against SA in the Summer....and but for a woeful display of kicking from Morne Steyn would have been on the end of 3 heavy defeats. Lets not forget that.

Australia meanwhile arent the pushovers everyone seems to have them down as.

I hope we do win 2/4...and would love to see us beat both SA & Australia....but its going to have to result in a huge improvement from the performances in the summer.

RubyGuby wrote:Now you're just copying me as usual Bedford - Just refer to my post rather than plagiarise next time mate Hows it going anyways

All good Ruby of course if we only won two and those two were NZ and Aus then I may re-evaluate my comments

I want 4 wins. Wales will get 4 wins.

Re-evalaute my arxx, you'd just go and look what i said and regurgitate it with some different words - Go Tavis you Glynneath Super Hero

Every team is in disarray due to injuries....looking back to RWC 2003 (like all Englishmen do), I find it astonishing that in the final, after a long hard tournament, that we were able to put out our best 1st XV.

People say we were lucky in that tournament, and in that respect, we definitely were.

mr_stonelea wrote:Every team is in disarray due to injuries....looking back to RWC 2003 (like all Englishmen do), I find it astonishing that in the final, after a long hard tournament, that we were able to put out our best 1st XV.

People say we were lucky in that tournament, and in that respect, we definitely were.

Wasn't the final the only game where we actually managed to put out our first choice XV? Seem to recall Richard Hill missed much of the tournament (or am I confusing with 07?).
As for luck, surely that was negated by having Andre Watson ref the final .

As a more serious point, has there actually been a time since 2003 when:
1 - There was a reasonable consensus on what England's first choice XV was?
2 - We've actually been able to put it on the pitch?

Seriously, looking back, how many of the 2003 final team was really under pressure for their place when fit? Bracken was almost Dawson's equal at 9, but Daws had clearly established himself as the starter, and even the relatively new players in the team (Thompson, Tindall, Kay) had nailed on the starting spots.

Pretty much ever since there have been at least half a dozen spots in the team that are up for permanent debate.

Ireland need 3 wins...well actually the Fiji game isn't capped but it would be nice to win that too I suppose.

No margin for error here given our awful record this year and the fact that we are in danger of dropping out of the IRB top 8.

Scotland:
1 win - minimum requirement






2 wins - outstanding achievement





3 wins - infeasibly amazingly out of this world

Yup, that about covers it

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:For England:

4 defeats - disastrous.
1 win - poor
2 wins - Acceptable
3 wins - good
4 wins - miracle.

+1, but for Wales

+1 too, but for Scotland

For England any more then one win and i'll be amazed.

Fiji will be spirited and could cause us a scare before we close them out. I expect it to be worryingly tight.

Oz are coming off the back of beating the AB's and will have some of their key players back. They'll be looking to make up for a lousy 4nations and win back their fans. A close game but Oz win.

SA were a class above us in the summer and played a weaker side in the third game, they then got progressively better as the 4nations went on and worryingly look more well rounded now too. Could be a big score for SA.

NZ are just freaks. If we can finish competitively i'll be pleased

Errr just to clarify Yappy - while we are treating it as a loss, Aus did not actually beat the ABs.

yappysnap wrote:
Oz are coming off the back of beating the AB's and will have some of their key players back. They'll be looking to make up for a lousy 4nations and win back their fans. A close game but Oz win.

Hi yappy, how are you? Sure you're looking forward to the weekend.

As said, we didn't beat the kiwis, close but no sugar, and close is only good enough for horseshoes and hand granades... we drew.

Was not the bestest series for us for sure, but I think we still came 2nd... in a 4 horse race!!

Good luck to your boys this weekend, should be a very good run out for them. And I hope when it comes to our game your prediction comes true.. for us anyway

dummy_half wrote:

mr_stonelea wrote:Every team is in disarray due to injuries....looking back to RWC 2003 (like all Englishmen do), I find it astonishing that in the final, after a long hard tournament, that we were able to put out our best 1st XV.

People say we were lucky in that tournament, and in that respect, we definitely were.

Wasn't the final the only game where we actually managed to put out our first choice XV? Seem to recall Richard Hill missed much of the tournament (or am I confusing with 07?).
As for luck, surely that was negated by having Andre Watson ref the final .

As a more serious point, has there actually been a time since 2003 when:
1 - There was a reasonable consensus on what England's first choice XV was?
2 - We've actually been able to put it on the pitch?

Seriously, looking back, how many of the 2003 final team was really under pressure for their place when fit? Bracken was almost Dawson's equal at 9, but Daws had clearly established himself as the starter, and even the relatively new players in the team (Thompson, Tindall, Kay) had nailed on the starting spots.

Pretty much ever since there have been at least half a dozen spots in the team that are up for permanent debate.

I argue this was in no way luck and was good management. Quins played their full 1st 15 once in the AP last season- the final, and I have no doubt it was orchestrated so that would be the case. Managing players through a tournament or season is a skill. The lack of long term injuries helped (but by definition long term injuries should not feature in a 1st 15) but short term injuries are within yhe hands of the players and coaching staff to a greater degree than is usually acknowledged

I predict 2 wins for England. I think we will do one of Oz or SA. Don't think Fiji will be particularly tight

England -
Fiji - we must win
Oz - We've shown that we can beat them at home before, no reason why we couldnt strangle them up front and try to starve them of ball again.
SA - England need to put a good performance in, a draw last game but as yappy said it was against a weakend SA side after the series was lost. England and SA are hopefully better now than they were on tour. 50-50 on this one.
NZ - just being competative would be a good result. Ireland did well in one of the tour games (cant remember which one it was).

So,
I'm hoping for 2 AI wins, 3 would make me very happy and we would get a good boost to the IRB rankings.

Wales - simply must beat Oz on home soil after 3 tour defeats.
SA - like England, 50-50.
Scots - must just be competative.

propdavid_london wrote:England -

SA - England need to put a good performance in, a draw last game but as yappy said it was against a weakend SA side after the series was lost. England and SA are hopefully better now than they were on tour. 50-50 on this one.

Not so sure we are better, we have more players injured now than during the English tour.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Scotland:
1 win - minimum requirement






2 wins - outstanding achievement





3 wins - infeasibly amazingly out of this world

Yup, that about covers it

Lets go for 1.5 wins then - so between min and outstanding

Oz - We've shown that we can beat them at home before, no reason why we couldnt strangle them up front and try to starve them of ball again.

But do we have the pack to starve them? Their scrum was poor...but im sure its improved...and everything else they'll be strong.

SA - England need to put a good performance in, a draw last game but as yappy said it was against a weakend SA side after the series was lost. England and SA are hopefully better now than they were on tour. 50-50 on this one.

I dont see us stronger either to be honest...we look no further forward...and im afraid i cant paper over the SA performances with the draw at the end. We should have been heavily beaten in all three games.

Lets see how we go...but im not very confident of getting much out.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Ireland were the better team at the breakdown in the second test HQ matt but NZ were the better team. When a team forces you into mistakes and dominates you in a vital area of the game, the team needs to come together.

NZ is 4 wins and nothing less. But they are AB expectations and apply to all seasons and matches. So in part, I find Warburton's comments refreshing. I don't like this 2 out of 4 wins is a bare minimum as you are already conceding defeat before the whistle has blown.

100% agree there... You have to go out to WIN every game, or there is no point.

Ok, it is unlikely that you can win all, and will face being the underdog on occassions, but you must still run on the field believing that you will win.

A few years back, Wales had the "cant win" mentality, and I remember screaming at the TV when Martin Williams (still playing) in an interview said that they where looking to stay within 10 point of the All Blacks. The team had conceded defeat days before. So for Warburton to know talk about targeting and wanting a 4 out of 4 win is a good thing and shows the team are developing mentally as well as physically.

BELIEVE...

I expect us to lose to South Africa but beat Argentina.

Biltong wrote:

propdavid_london wrote:England -

SA - England need to put a good performance in, a draw last game but as yappy said it was against a weakend SA side after the series was lost. England and SA are hopefully better now than they were on tour. 50-50 on this one.

Not so sure we are better, we have more players injured now than during the English tour.

But those players that stepped in are more experienced - been in the system longer and know eachother better. You'd hope that there wouldnt be a repeat of some of the sloppy mistakes that were made tour test 1.

If england beat two teams i'll be stunned and amazed. I'll be even more impressed if they can score more tries then the opposition too.

AI Expectations -

Me + + + + NZ =