Finding Festival Winners

Its the World Cup and Olympics of NH racing,a meeting that has consumed almost all of the other racing,rightly or wrongly,during the season.Finding winners and having a Festival to remember is on everybodys mind but unfortunately it isnt that easy.So how do we go about sorting the wheat from the chaff? Ive been doing it for 30 seasons with it has to said differing results.Heres a few bullet points that might or might not help you.
1.The going is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN ANY RACE.If your selection doesnt handle the going then bin it.Just because its running at the Festival it isnt going to suddenly change its lifetime of form and start handling a surface that throughout its career has been alien to it.
2.Previous Festival form is a bonus,it isnt just about the raceform, its the hubbub of the masses,the pace of the races and the atmosphere thats all needed to be absorbed by both horse and jockey.Loads of races are lost even before they get to the start.If Festival form isnt available then previous course form is a nice fall back,Cheltenham is idiosyncratic,it is an undulating,helter skelter with an energy sapping finish.Not every horses cup of tea.
3.Current form of horse and stable then come into play.Horses and stables in good form with a good build up usually perform,its rare that a horse and stable turn the corner at the Festival having been in the doldrums prior.
4.Jumping ability is paramount over both timber and fences,bad jumpers dont win around here.The extra half a stride of pace in the Championship events finds many out and one mistake can be the difference between winning and being an also ran.
5.Finally after sifting through the previous four we come to the ratings and weights.Thats when we all have our own ideas as to the value of collateral form,weight differences and anything else thats linked to the handicapping of horses.
6.Once youve made your selection then be adamant with yourself as to what price you expect about your charge.VFM is number one when betting,be vigilant,if the price isnt right then walk away,i'll guarantee that you'll walk away from more losers than winners by being strong of mind.
7.Only mugs bet in the amateur riders events.They are a minefield and should not be touched.
8.You cant back every winner,so dont try.
It isnt a surefire recipe for winners,if it was i'd be doing it for a living but it might stop you wasting bets and backing losers.