Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday

This is the place to discuss all things Cheltenham for day one of the Festival.

Cheltenham at dawn will be meet by a frosty reception but with 65 acres under cover and the heat from the thousands due to attend the meeting there seems no doubt about the racing going ahead.

GOING: SOFT (GoingStick: Chs/Hdl 6.0; Cross-Country 5.9) (The Chase and Hurdle courses have been covered together with the vulnerable areas on the Cross Country course).

Updates in green

The racing goes ahead at Cheltenham today but the races will be running 35 minutes late. First race gets under way at 2.05

1.30 WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES´ HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
The action kicks off with what looks like a decent Britain vs Ireland battle between the two JP McManus horses My Tent Or Yours and Jezki. AP McCoy, retainer jockey for the owner, will be aboard the Nicky Henderson trained My Tent Or You who won the Betfair Hurdle impressively from Cotton Mill last time out. That win brought about calls for the horse to go for the Champion Hurdle but the trainer is sticking with this novice event. His main rival in the betting is the Irish trained Jezki who is unbeaten in four races over hurdles. It is worth noting though that his only defeat under NH rules can in the Champion Bumper at the Festival last year.

Willie Mullins runs Champagne Fever (Ruby Walsh) and Pique Sous, first and third in last year's Bumper, and both have claims but best Irish horse and possibly the best in the race could be his UN ATOUT. The Davy Russell mount is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and won very easily each time. Dodging Bullets ran well last time behind Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle and could be a decent each way bet.

Ratings Pick:- Un Atout

2.05 RACING POST ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
There are a few nice types going to post in the Arkle but SIMONSIG and Overturn look a cut above the rest. Simonsig just oozes class winning Grade 1 hurdle races at both Cheltenham and Aintree last season and his two novice chase events in December by a total of 84l. Overturn is no slouch though and will be a serious threat to Simonsig. Overturn, second in the 2012 Champion Hurdle, is unbeaten in his three novice chases and will look to set a quick pace. If he can run his race and on the soft ground, he may cause the favourite some problems. Majala could go well too for Tom George and Paddy Brennan but I don't see him troubling the front two.

Ratings Pick:- Simonsig

2.40 JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
24 runners have been declared for the first handicap of the meeting with Our Mick and Merry King jostling for favouritism. Our Mick was third in this race last year but has only been seen out once since when he unseated his jockey in January. THE PACKAGE, currently at 12/1, could be an interesting runner. He pulled up last time out but before that has very decent form this season behind Bobs Worth and in beating Michael Le Bon. David Pipe knows how to ready a horse for a Festival handicap too. Midnight Chase has an excellent record around Cheltenham but wouldn't want the ground any softer. Cloudy Too has been improving all season for Sue Smith, goes well on the softer ground and could run a big race at a big price. Pete The Feat is another outsider with claims.

Ratings Pick:- Monkerty Tunkerty

3.20 STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)
Rock On Ruby is back to defend his crown but his task looks harder this year with HURRICANE FLY and Zarkandar both looking to have improved. With no Overturn to set a blistering pace either, a more leveled gallop may suit Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar. Both the leading fancies have won three from three this term and will appreciate the softer going. Willie Mullins has stated that his charge is back to his best and will be tough to beat as he looks to regain his crown. Nicky Henderson's Grandouet could be a likely improver but is held by Zarkandar on his last outing and the Festival last year. Donald McCain has to very good yardsticks at his stables in Peddler's Cross (runner up in 2011) and Overturn (runner up in 2012) so it is hard to rule out Cinders And Ashes running a big race. He will need to put his last run behind him though.

Ratings Pick:- Hurricane Fly

4.00 GLENFARCLAS HANDICAP CHASE (A CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)Race Abandoned
The cross country race is always a good bit of fun and whatever horses Katie Walsh and Nina Carberry are on should be worth a second look. Walsh rides Shakervilz who was sixth over course and distance in December while Carberry is on the favourite ARABELLA BOY who despite unseating Miss Carberry in that December race is in good form.

Ratings Pick:- Shakervilz

4.40 OLBG MARES´ HURDLE (REGISTERED AS THE DAVID NICHOLSON MARES´ HURDLE) GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Quevega has won this race for the past four seasons and will be a tough nut to crack once again. Une Artiste who has won twice at this course before and is unbeaten in two starts this season. I like the look of SWING BOWLER though who was staying on well last time out in the Betfair Hurdle when third behind Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite My Tent Or Yours.

Ratings Pick:- Quevega

An interesting market mover is the French trained horse Sirene D'Ainay. You can still get 66/1 at Ladbrokes but she is 20, 25s most other places

5.15 REWARDS4RACING NOVICES´ HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-140)
The final race of day one is a novice handicap chase that on paper looks wide open. Colour Squadron for Philip Hobbs and AP McCoy is the current favourite while The Druids Nephew and Shangani have been widely tipped in the morning papers. The two that stand out for me though are Arthur's Pass at 12/1 and FOURJACKS who is making his handicap debut, is 2-3 over fences with his best form coming in defeat and is currently trading at a massive 25/1.

Ratings Pick:- Kruzhlinin

Not much activity in the betting market yet but Champagne Fever, Merry King and Swing Bowler have all been nibbled at.

The bookies seem all out on taking Hurricane Fly on.

I haven't really had a look, but for the CH, Zarkander has a lot going for it.

Bit of trend analysis says the poor record of 9 year olds, plus lack of previous winners regaining their crown rules out Binocular (despite my EW bet @16s - AP says he will run a big race).

The previous winner trend also rules out the fav.

Harry Fry wasn't particularly glowing about Rock on Ruby saying they were really concerned about the ground.

Definitely think Zarkandar has a better chance this year with no Overturn to set the pace and with the softer going in his favour.

Also plenty of whispers around about Cheltenian in the first

I fancy Zarkandar given the stickier ground and better prep he has had this year.

Can't see My tent or yours losing the opener given how impressive he looked at Newbury but there is a list ot short priced favourites getting turned over in this one so... I've also heard good things about Cheltenian so have backed for a place on betfair.

Have backed Kentford Grey Lady w/o Quevega and the Druids Nephew in the last.

Will just enjoy the Arkle without a bet and wait until Simonsig meets Sprinter next year...

The record of short priced favourites in the Supreme Novices does give you doubts, but I think My Tent or Yours is officially rated so much higher than any of those previous ones that were turned over.

I have more confidence in him than I did in the likes of Cue Card

1.30 MY TENT OR YOURS brings some of the best novice form that weve seen in many a season.A win off 149(hack canter) in the hottest handicap of the season so far would,based on the figures,put him in the Champion with credible claims.Back against other novices he is just impossible to oppose.Should be 1/2 and not 2/1.Rock solid bet.

2.05 A so called match between Overturn,a thoroughly likeable and honest dual purpose performer and SIMONSIG,the next Great White Hope etc.Of the two it was the former who had the better hurdle rating and he was carried out on his shield after last years Champion Hurdle where he beat all bar the winner.He is dangerous when left alone in front and he will get the run of the race today but SIMONSIG has looked a veritable bottmless pit of un tapped potential in his two facile chase wins so far and if can keep tabs on the pace setting Mccain hope early doors then its only going one way when they hit the Hill.Odds on doesnt float my boat so a watching brief only.

2.40 Ultra competitive heat with hatful of chances but i take FRUITY O ROONEY to go one better than last year.Back down to his favoured below 140 rating and with conditions to suit he can make these all go.Sure to be in the van there shouldnt be any hard luck stories and if young Moore can get a breather into him coming down the Hill then im sure he get make his prescence felt on the punishing climb for home.10s is fair VFM for small ew stakes.

3.20 It all revolves around HURRICANE FLY.A 14 time grade one winner yet all want to doubt him,why? He is the best horse in the race,he has the best form in the race and is in the best current form of anything in the race.Soft ground is ideal,he has handled the track in previous years and has no preference to racing style,he can be dropped in if they go quick or he can sit close if they crawl.Ruby wont drop the clanger he did last year,he'll be on the premises a lot earlier and he just has too much toe for all of them.Bigger than 2s is absurd VFM and he rates a five star bet.

4.00 Only mugs bet in this so for selection purposes only i go for SIZING AUSTRALIA.A total no bet race.

4.40 QUEVEGA like The Fly is the best in the race by a country mile but would you do the oods on first run back for almost a year? Of course not but youd be looking for something to beat her that probably doesnt exsist,she can only beat herself by not performing to her true ability.Watching brief only but hoping she goes into the Festival anals with a fifth victory.

5.15 As wide open a heat as you would find anywhere,cases can be made for virtually all the runners but i give RESTLESS HARRY one last chance to redeem himself.He never really progressed from his Albert Bartlett win here a while back but if he did relight his fire of this mark then hed make them all go.Small ew stakes at silly prices.

I really would have liked My Tent or Yours to have a bit of Cheltenham form.

Course form, or even better Festival form, gives you so much confidence. If you knew that he could handle the undulations and the uphill finish on tacky ground, you have a real odds-on shot then.

I think he is lucky that the field is smaller as well, as he won't have to cope with the usual festival argy bargy in the first race.

On Quevega, every year I say to myself she hasn't run in such a long time, every year she destroys everything she faces. I have her in an even money double with Sprinter

I have the same feeling with Quevega. I always think she hasn't ran since this race last year, she turns up and wins with ease. I have the same feeling with Big Bucks. Surely she cant make it 5 on the bounce! Am backing Swing Bowler today based purely on its price, but I would not be surprised if Quevega does it again.

I've got a feeling Zarkander will win the champion hurdle today. The conditions suit (which they dont with Rock on Ruby who is also wearing blinkers for the first time) and there is not Overturn setting the pace either this year with will bring the race pace down to suit. I will still be placing my bet with Paddy Power who give you your stake back as a free bet if Hurricane Fly wins.

boyhyde wrote:Will just enjoy the Arkle without a bet and wait until Simonsig meets Sprinter next year...

Likewise... Simonsig looks a top class horse but Overturn will hopefully take the race to him.

I've just had a small ew flutter on Majala, based purely on the time of his last 2m run compared to Simonsig.

Majala - 2m on heavy at Warwick - time 4m 16.6s
Simonsig - 2m on heavy at Kempton - time 4m 18.6s

Now I realise that it is different tracks, the "heavy" could be slightly different and also Simonsig was eased off, while Majala was ridden all out.

But with Simonsig at 4/7 and Majala at 28/1, i thought it worth a small ew wager

sportsville wrote:

boyhyde wrote:Will just enjoy the Arkle without a bet and wait until Simonsig meets Sprinter next year...

Likewise... Simonsig looks a top class horse but Overturn will hopefully take the race to him.

Looking through the trends and a pretty strong one for the Arkle is for the top rated hurdler which would mean Overturn - if this is to be the case you're right and he has got to take the race to Simonsig and try to force jumping mistakes which admittedly haven't been very apparent to date...

Champagne Fever wins the first for Ruby Walsh at 5/1. Was reportedly one of the biggest backed horses of the day but the bookies are still pleased My Tent Or Yours got beat.

If the ground stays on the softish side we may see a few winners taking the race to their rivals.

Jeez, that good thing hardly won at a canter. Guess it doesn't matter once you're collecting but my bum would have been fluttering if I'd gone in big.

My work PC is missing plugins so I cant watch or listen

That Baily Green has decent form lines when you look at it closer with hindsight. They both were miles ahead of everything else, so Baily Green could be better than we first thought.

be interesting to see the race times

Simonsig didn't exactly impress in his victory. Surprised Nicky Henderson said he's a 'Champion Chase horse' because he looked to be staying on better at the end of that race, he won a novice hurdle race at last years Festival over 2m5f and has won over 3m before.

Im having a terrible day! Going to give it for today & hope tomorrow bring more luck

Having a bad day so far so I have just put £20 on Zarkander with Paddy Power @ 7/2

Only put £10 worth of bets on already but I've got a feeling it will do it.......

lost on Zarkander as well.

Need Quevega to come in to cover my losing bets. Have it as a double with Simonsig

I have just doubled my money for the day but Quevega managed to ruin it too.

I got on Sirene D'Ainay at 66/1 E/W this morning.

That's the first half on my double.

I now have the equivalent of £20 going onto Sprinter tomorrow at Even money

Finished day 1 with two short priced winners in Simonsig and Hurricane Fly and won a nicely amount on Sirene D'Ainay each way.

Had a solid first day.Max on Hurricane Fly and My Tent Or Yours so no damage there and three out of four in a Lucky 15 .Any profit here is good profit.