Will Wales make the final step?

After their incredible 30-3 win over England yesterday, to seal a second consecutive Six Nations crown, when will Wales make the final step and regularly challenge the big 3 Southern Hemisphere sides?

In 2005, Wales won the Six Nations Grand Slam for the first time. They didn't build on that. In the 2005 Autumn Internationals, they were hammered by both New Zealand and South Africa, and then finished fifth in the 2006 Six Nations, mustering just the one win at home to Scotland. This culminated in a hugely disappointing 2007 RWC, going out in the pool stages after losses to Australia and Fiji.

Nonetheless, Wales did the Grand Slam again in 2008, brushing aside everyone in their path with Shane Williams showing the way. A summer tour to the then World Champions, South Africa, followed and Wales were brushed aside in both games, before losing to them and New Zealand in the 2008 Autumn Internationals. The defence of their crown in 2009 hit the rocks with defeats to France and Ireland. The 2010 and 2011 Six Nations campaigns never really got going after opening-day defeats to England in both tournaments, and the autumn internationals of those years didn't yield any major wins.

Then came the 2011 World Cup. After being mugged of victory against South Africa, victories over Samoa, Namibia, Fiji, and Ireland saw Wales to a World Cup semi-final against France. Only a red card to skipper Warburton saw Wales halted in their brave quest to reach the World Cup Final. The foundations were set.

Wales promptly won the 2012 Six Nations Grand Slam, their third in eight years, Leigh Halfpenny being the top points scorer of the tournament. Frustratingly for Wales, this success was not built on again. The leader, Warren Gatland, broke both his heels and Rob Howley was made caretaker coach. The 3 Test Summer Tour to Australia merited a 0-3 return for Wales. That looks a bit harsh in truth, they lost the games by scores of 8, 2, and 1. Gatland was then selected to coach the Lions, Howley remained in charge, and Wales lost all 4 Autumn Internationals to Argentina, Samoa, New Zealand, and Australia.

The 2013 Six Nations began. Wales 3-23 Ireland at HT. Things could only get better. They did, but in no way that Welsh fans could have predicted. Whilst the Ireland game was still lost, a mini-comeback snuffed out, but Wales contrived to edge out the French in Paris, before smashing Italy in Rome, and seeing off Scotland in Edinburgh. The final game was at Cardiff against the nemesis, England. England one game from glory, 80 minutes from the dream. We know what happened. Weren't Wales just a joy to watch? 30-3. Not just stopping England from the title, and not just winning it for themselves, but absolutely pulverising their rivals, striding rampantly to another Six Nations crown, their 4th in 9 years.

The immediate future for Wales concerns the Lions. It is probable that the majority of the 1st XV on the 22nd June 2013 will be Welsh, they deserve as much. Lydiate, Tipuric, North, Cuthbert, and Halfpenny probably the leading men out of the Welsh team. The defence of the Six Nations in 2014 will be a difficult challenge, history shows us that France are always the winners of the Six Nations after a Lions year, but God knows what position the French are in right now. Not too far around the corner of course is the 2015 World Cup, it's always lurking, always looming, always just over the horizon. Wales are in the group of death it would seem with England and Australia. The nucleus of the current team will remain so and at a good age in 2015: Halfpenny will be 26, Warburton will be 26/27, North will be 23, Faletau will be 24, Cuthbert will be 25. I could go on, but you see my point. The belief will be there, the experience will be there, past victories and glory will also be there.

So will Wales make the final step? I think yes, a brilliant structure is in place now and Wales will be a regular threat to the Southern Hempishere over the next two years, just like England were in 2001-2003. I'd even go far as saying Wales will make the World Cup final in 2015, at the very least, I wouldn't be surprised if they won the whole thing. Everything is there to mount the charge to glory. Good luck Wales, and enjoy the journey over the next 2 and a bit years.

We have regularly challenged Australia, it's just the win that has escaped us.

A hard earned 4th place in the rankings is another reward for our efforts

I am a huge Lydiate fan and if fit think he will travel but having not played since what October hes not leading the charge of Welsh players to start first test.

As for the main point of the post then again only time will tell and yes we do need to now take that final step and regularly beat the big 3 SH sides.

Wales have to start winning their home games against the 3N. Thats the beginning.

However I do think that Wales need to become more flexible in their tactics to challenge the 3N sides.

Why is it that Wales can be the dominant side in the 6N with 3 titles in 6 years but have the worst record (bar Italy) of SH scalps during this period?

As much as people can say Wales are competitive, if they were truly competitive then they would have got the rub of the green in a number of games. 1 win in 23 years since these 3 6N titles is not just due to bad luck, the odd bounce of the ball etc. Sure the matches vs. AUS last year were close but not only were AUS always comfortbale, even when behind.... they were playing near a full 2nd XV for most of those games.

Guys like Cuthbert, North, Roberts, Davies etc are effective against NH teams but are easily dealt with by the SH.
Backs aren't just big lumps here... they're all fast, can tackle (Cooper not inc.) and have genuine ball skills.

Wales won yesterday because they simply beat up England upfront. Their backrow gets the credit but it was their front five which won the match. You ain't going to have that level of dominance vs. SA or NZ.. and if thats how you base your entire platform on then you will never get over the line.

Can you do to the boks what you did to England (Kudos BTW) yesterday with the following pack

Beast, Bismarck, Oosthuizen, Eztebeth, Bekker, Burger, Louw, Vermeulen.

Well that front five will eat up near all-comers and weighs in at over 600kgs... the pack itself is about 930kg+. Its in a different league.

AUS on the other hand do not have the players to boss these guys but have a very good record against SA in the last 5 years... in fact, the best of all teams, better than NZ's.
Why because their game isn't built around front five dominance.

If Wales & England in fact can add more variation to their side then they will be more likely to get over the finish line first vs. these guys.

fa0019 wrote:Wales have to start winning their home games against the 3N. Thats the beginning.
However I do think that Wales need to become more flexible in their tactics to challenge the 3N sides.

For me this is a point I have thought for a long time. Many expected us to go and beat Oz down under when we hadn't beaten them at home for quite a few years. You have to walk before you can run and starting to win consistently at home against the 3N sides is the starting point in becoming a top 3 side.

We saw how Wales CAN mix up their game when they want to. We saw them using a crash ball tactic to good effect but crucially did not over use it. It was nice to finally see us playing with ball in hand and using our strike runners, and surprise surprise it brought about good results with Cuthbert scoring 2 tries and North making some excellent breaks.

fa0019 wrote:

As much as people can say Wales are competitive, if they were truly competitive then they would have got the rub of the green in a number of games. 1 win in 23 years since these 3 6N titles is not just due to bad luck, the odd bounce of the ball etc. Sure the matches vs. AUS last year were close but not only were AUS always comfortbale, even when behind.... they were playing near a full 2nd XV for most of those games.

Oh dear what a load bull.

Well done on managing to avoid the spoon btw.

Morgan, fa0019 is South African.......

He's a Scot living in South Africa. Okay???

In further response to his post, Aus only played their 2nd XV against Scotland .

When will ANY of the northern hemisphere sides challenge the south?

England did it for a brief 3 year period
France get the odd freak win out in NZ

We're all in the same boat.
SH rugby is almost a different sport.

After their incredible 30-3 win over England yesterday, to seal a second consecutive Six Nations crown, when will Wales make the final step and regularly challenge the big 3 Southern Hemisphere sides?

You could ask that of any of the 6 Nations teams, I don't see why one would only ask that of Wales? Fair question though. I hope we can. Would like to see us have a go at Arg, Samoa, Aus and SA and then maybe NZ the following year. We especially owe Samoa one. How none of their players didn't get cited I'll never know.

Morgan... such grace. I've been here long enough to be legitimately a naturalised bokke so could in turn say the same to you no doubt... but thats not the way I roll. It wasn't a slight, a genuine critique of their play.

AD, you're both semi-right. I'm a expat Scot in SA and still support Scotland albeit have no way of knowing players bar test matches.

In their last match the had Genia, Cooper, McCabe, Ashley-Cooper, O'Connor, and Ioane all out injured... all first team players and backs. Beale aside its an entire backline.

It doesn't take away the point I was saying... I think their is much backing to say that to beat the 3N sides they need to change their game plan.. at least when facing them. I have a pretty decent understanding of the SH game and guys like those mentioned earlier are 10 a penny here.

fa0019 wrote:Wales have to start winning their home games against the 3N. Thats the beginning.

As much as people can say Wales are competitive, if they were truly competitive then they would have got the rub of the green in a number of games. 1 win in 23 years since these 3 6N titles is not just due to bad luck, the odd bounce of the ball etc. Sure the matches vs. AUS last year were close but not only were AUS always comfortbale, even when behind.... they were playing near a full 2nd XV for most of those games.

Guys like Cuthbert, North, Roberts, Davies etc are effective against NH teams but are easily dealt with by the SH.
Backs aren't just big lumps here... they're all fast, can tackle (Cooper not inc.) and have genuine ball skills.

Wales won yesterday because they simply beat up England upfront. Their backrow gets the credit but it was their front five which won the match. You ain't going to have that level of dominance vs. SA or NZ.. and if thats how you base your entire platform on then you will never get over the line.

Can you do to the boks what you did to England (Kudos BTW) yesterday with the following pack

Beast, Bismarck, Oosthuizen, Eztebeth, Bekker, Burger, Louw, Vermeulen.

Well that front five will eat up near all-comers and weighs in at over 600kgs... the pack itself is about 930kg+. Its in a different league.

AUS on the other hand do not have the players to boss these guys but have a very good record against SA in the last 5 years... in fact, the best of all teams, better than NZ's.
Why because their game isn't built around front five dominance.

If Wales & England in fact can add more variation to their side then they will be more likely to get over the finish line first vs. these guys.

You are pretty disrespect to an excellent Welsh squad performance yesterday, but more importantly you seem to have a very selective memory, can you not recall what the Lions front row did to SA in the tests, thats Jenkins/Rees/Jones all of who are playing now, and last year Oz even admitted themselves that Wales should have won two out of the three tests. North is pretty much respected in NZ big time and he certainly is more than a match for any winger on the world stage today.

They have to be more consistent I agree, but they are as fit as any nation (if not the fittest), and getting much closer in quality in depth and performance to SA and Australia

Based on your rationale then NZ should have won the world cup long before they did, dont go back 23 yrs as it bears no indication going forward

Flyhalffactory

I can't see how my post was disrespectful... because they smashed the 4th ranked team at home does that mean they should automatically smash everyone??

Credit to them, they played with such intensity yesterday and full deserved to be back to back 6N champs.... a very very rare feat. When was the last time a home nations did that? I think 00 and 01 with England who went on to win the RWC a few years later.

But do you honestly think they can do that to a team like the boks? I don't believe so and history is on my side. People have been saying for 10 years how the NH is closing on the SH but in reality the gulf is just as big as it always has been.

I don't want to seem to go on about how this Welsh team is not a match for the 3N sides as I think they "can" develop into a match.... I just don't think they can playing the way they currently do and think if they did expand their game...they could do what only England in 00-04 have ever achieved in world rugby.. world dominance.

FHF - We are used to this drivel, let it ride, you know what's fuelling it

fa0019 wrote:Flyhalffactory

But do you honestly think they can do that to a team like the boks? I don't believe so and history is on my side. People have been saying for 10 years how the NH is closing on the SH but in reality the gulf is just as big as it always has been.

.

fa0019

You have to consider

Lydiate 6Ns 2012 Player of the tournament, you have no one on the blindside who would match his raw power or tackling
Chatteris
Ryan Jones proved that he could and did hold his own against you guys

wasn't playing

Based on that second half performance, and taking into account such key players weren't available, yes very much so they would be more than a match for the current level of SA players, who lets be honest are not that great shakes are they?

Or are you on a bit of a defensive low?

It doesn't take away the point I was saying...

Obviously it does, seeing as the bolded part of your post is incorrect. Like I said, Wales winning seems to always bother you. Oh well, there's another reason to try and keep winning.

FHF

I'll take the bait, not defensive at all but if people are not going to have a sensible debate and only cry WUM etc then its no point discussing, its not enjoyable.
I'm the only one in the SH actually discussing the merits of the NH game, the rest is just home nations folk discussing the dreams.... the majority of SH fans have zero respect for their NH counterparts... at least with me you have one who tries and bigs up our game.

Your question on Lydiate.... Willem Alberts.... and personally I'd rather have the trio of Burger, Louw and Vermeulen at the moment although Burger is only coming back from a year long injury so you can't tell how he will be at his age.

If people think the bokke are a past force then think again... I for one see more talent in this group of players in a long time... probably since the class of 04. They have a lot of potential.

fa0019

Sorry mate, I am not attempting to wind you up, it grates me to say how good Wales are as I feel they did a number on the ref against us last week. BUT to hammer a very good "grand slam seeking" England side 30-3...... now thats not just a good performance thats a bloody awesome performance. And thats more or less the England side that took a very good NZ side to the cleaners in the Autumn.

Lets have a quick gurgle here then

I don't believe you have anyone who can match

Adam Jones - who I believe is the best TH on the world stage
Gethin Jenkins - upped his scrummaging technique and around the loose

If you think Alberts who is an excellent high tackler and possibly is 10lbs heavier than Lydiate will match him on the tackle front especially on the low trajectory hits then you better think again.

I am not saying that Wales are consistently better than SA or Australia but they are certainly closer than you implying, and yesterdays 2nd half performance (in my opinion) would have been enough to comfortably beat the best SA side currently.

LOL, still blaming the ref.

maestegmafia wrote:We have regularly challenged Australia, it's just the win that has escaped us.

A hard earned 4th place in the rankings is another reward for our efforts

I thought that even though it was a big win, you still stayed in 5th (for now - 4th spot could come in the Summer)?

flyhalffactory

Nae worries dude.

There is this young tighthead in SA called Oosthuizen. He's a mountain and potentially the next Carl Hayman in terms of dominance. Started his pro career as a loosehead but is certainly more suited to No.3. Weighs in at about 130kg and it shows on the pitch... although his workrate is admiral for a guy of his size.

With the boks its not just decent individuals... its world class operators in every position especially the front five. They have no shortage of props and backrow forwards (probably because every saffa I've ever met was nearly always one or the other).
In the 09 Lions tour everyone was writing off the boks front row.... what they overlooked was that their locks were so strong that medium scrum operators such as Beast were able to fight above their weight.. and with Bekker and Etzebeth they have 2 200cm+ 125kg giants a piece.

When you play them you have to be on top of your game, playing the best you've ever played to stand a chance... because they have gears.. flick a switch and these guys just move up a notch or two.

They've played the home nations 24 times since 2007 and won 22 of them. 1 was the 09 AI tour vs. Ireland where they were simply exhausted due to the lions tour and lost to both Saracens and Leicester (I recall both Biltong and myself called this pre tour on the old 606 sight due to the players being in bits come the end of the SA domestic season), the other was the 2010 murrayfield ambush (never have I gone to work with such a smirk on my face.. it was golden ).

In other words their general level of play is exceptionally high and to beat them you have to play the game of your life or pray for a miracle and in terms of intensity, no one does intensity like the boks.

Whether Wales takes the next step is often down to the team they can put out. After the 2005 Slam, for example, they had lots of injured players as a result of the Lions tour. Wales suffers a lot as a team when they lose Adam Jones in particular. We need to develop backup props and a back 3 and develop more creative options in midfield and at 10.

fine margins, squad depth, confidence and consistency will all be needed for Wales to make the next step. They have not had it following previous 6n wins but i feel they are all going in the right direction you only have to look at the reaction when we lose to SH teams now, we are genuinly gutted regardess of the performance where as in previous years we would be happy to be plucky losers.

I still dont think we quite have the depth. And when I say depth I dont mean players who can come in and do a job if someone is injured I mean depth in terms of having two players vying for every position so every player has to play out of his skin to keep the jersey, we are starting to see it for example in the back row with warbs, lydiate, tipuric, jones, faletau (if only Ben Morgan had chosen Wales) but we look a totally different team if Adam is injured and the backline is under no pressure for their positions. I feel this lack of depth has an effect on our consistency as when we have injuries as we had in autumn we rush players back and suffer as a result which then has a knock on effect on confidence etc etc

Still I think we are going in the right direction and as I have mentioned on other threads the current plight of the domestic game is only serving to bolster this depth which will serve our national team well to compete regularly with all nations going forward

Duty, nice thread mate.

Just one thing please.

wales were mugged against SA?

GavinDragon -- there are some u20s players putting their hands up. They need lots of game time at Rabo level to quickly develop. The young u20s scrum hlalf -- Rhodri Williams -- is absolutely elecrtric. Amazing pace and a great pass. Eli Walkerr at the Ospreys is a superb runner, with more pace than the great Shane. We have to develop these players and others, to develop depth.

yes totally agree Osprey, what was fantastic was that 5 of the u20's had been regular starters at the regions and it showed in their results.

However at that age group we always seem to struggle in the tight five (with the exception of the previous JWC when Samson Lee demolised a NZ scrum).

There is another thing about having the depth though and that is having the courage to drop players who are not performing, to havbe that ruthless edge as coaches that perhaps NZ or SA do. Saying that on the other hand after the Ireland game I would have dropped both Gethin and Cuthbert for James and Walker respectively so perhaps it works both ways

Biltong wrote:Duty, nice thread mate.

Just one thing please.

wales were mugged against SA?

Come on Bilt you know Hooks kick was over the posts

Uhuh.

We all know there were 3 big mistakes in the RWC2011...

Hooks kick v SA.

Warburtons red card.

And the disgrace that was Jouberts final!!

That other knockout game was just karma wasn't it

Biltong wrote:Duty, nice thread mate.

Just one thing please.

wales were mugged against SA?

That kick that went over but wasn't given as such.

No Wales won't well hopefully so well in Japan and get smashed in November like usual.

"No Wales won't well hopefully so well in Japan and get smashed in November like usual." -- If they lose lots of key players, as they have after previous 6N wins and Lions tours, they probably will ...

fa0019 wrote:Flyhalffactory

I can't see how my post was disrespectful... because they smashed the 4th ranked team at home does that mean they should automatically smash everyone??

Credit to them, they played with such intensity yesterday and full deserved to be back to back 6N champs.... a very very rare feat. When was the last time a home nations did that? I think 00 and 01 with England who went on to win the RWC a few years later.

But do you honestly think they can do that to a team like the boks? I don't believe so and history is on my side. People have been saying for 10 years how the NH is closing on the SH but in reality the gulf is just as big as it always has been.

I don't want to seem to go on about how this Welsh team is not a match for the 3N sides as I think they "can" develop into a match.... I just don't think they can playing the way they currently do and think if they did expand their game...they could do what only England in 00-04 have ever achieved in world rugby.. world dominance.

well you seem to be missing the point ....it's not one or other type of rugby required but both....Aus compete because they have te best backs in the world, Boks because they have the most destructive pack...the ABs have both and when Wales get to grips with that they will start to win SH fixtures

Guys like Cuthbert, North, Roberts, Davies etc are effective against NH teams but are easily dealt with by the SH.

Errrr! Mr North or should it be Master North had 2 tries on his debut for Wales against the SA's hahahaha

rainbow-warrior wrote:Guys like Cuthbert, North, Roberts, Davies etc are effective against NH teams but are easily dealt with by the SH.

Errrr! Mr North or should it be Master North had 2 tries on his debut for Wales against the SA's hahahaha

Two tournament's in a row. Feels fantastic.

"A hard earned 4th place in the rankings is another reward for our efforts" -- Maestegmafia, we are still 5th, behind Eng (just).

Ospreydragon wrote:"A hard earned 4th place in the rankings is another reward for our efforts" -- Maestegmafia, we are still 5th, behind Eng (just).

It's also little reward now that the World Cup draw has been and gone anyway. Stupid losing run