Does it make sense to have a Lions team full of welsh players?

Wales have played the wallabies 8 times since there last win against them in 2008. Of the 16 games played between these two teams since the new millennium, Wales have won only 2 and one draw.

England have beaten Australia 9 times out of 17 games played between the two nations since the new millennium. Win percentage of 52.9%

Ireland have won 3 out of 10 games played since new millennium and one draw. Win percentage of 35%

Scotland have won 2 out of 9 since the new millennium. Win percentage of 22.2%

Meanwhile, the team who will most likely be representing the majority of Lions XV positions, have a win percentage of only 15.625%

It's fair to say that Wales have had a very bad run of luck vs Australia. I could now go on to dis Wales as a team and conjure some excuses as to why there should be less Welsh players in the Lions, but I don't see the point. Plus, it ain't gonna happen anyway as Wales are the in form NH team at the moment and deserve to have the most players representing the Lions.

What I want to know is, which other players from England, Scotland and Ireland are going to give these Welsh players that little extra to secure a 3-0 white wash over Australia? Where have Wales gone wrong in the past? What does Gatland need to do to ensure the Lions don't play like the Welsh team that got white washed last summer?

The problem is like for England NZ - the Wales England game shows what Wales can do when all the planets align, but not what they do do. They could do the same vs Australia but havnt so far.

Wales will rightly dominate the Lions - but I cant help think if things go too far it wont be a good series. Time will tell.

I thought the majority's suggestion was to pick a squad on form?

If so, then i imagine that there would be a lot of Welsh players in there.

Its hard looking back at old results, certainly ones going back to the millennium as the majority of players who will be within the parameters of selection won't have been playing then.

Wales and England's squads average age is 25 or 26 and Scotland and Ireland can't be too much different.

That said Wales resent run vs Aussies has resulted in a whitewash since the RWC 2011 and the team that just retained the six Nations are predominantly the same players.

Most of those games were very very close. Lets hope with a little bit of help from our mates in England, Ireland and Scotland we can go three games in a row with a positive result.

Its not just Wales with a poor record vs. AUS.

South Africa have 7 losses in last 9 matches vs. AUS.

AUS know how to play route 1, direct rugby. The boks have the biggest pack in world rugby and certainly have so over the last 4 years... yet AUS constantly do one over on us.

All this talk on us dominating AUS upfront is rubbish. Those who say that know little or nothing about the game down here.

Yes their have been games when they have been dominated such as the RWC11 vs. Ireland but 2 years on their team is far better in forwards now.

I recall back in 09 when everyone in the UK was saying how the Lions would beat up SA in the scrum and the series would follow suit.

0-8 is not bad luck... neither is 2-9.... its comprehensively superior be it tactically or player on player.

One stat does worry me however... Gatlands 1 win in 21 vs. the SH 3N's during his tenure with Wales. Thats car crash and I would say this years AUS is quite possibly the best during his tenure also.

It makes sense for Wales to provide the largest share of the squad. After that it is down to how the all gel in training and warm-up matches.

Successful Lions tours see a team forged from across the nations. Poor ones tend to have cliques and dominant factions.

The best of British and Irish should beat Australia.

Ok, lets start with the Wales XV against England:

15 Leigh Halfpenny
14Alex Cuthbert
13Jonathan Davies
12Jamie Roberts
11George North
10Dan Biggar
9 Mike Phillips
1 Gethin Jenkins (capt)
2 Richard Hibbard
3 Adam Jones
4 Alun Wyn Jones
5 Ian Evans
6 Sam Warburton
7 Justin Tipuric
8 Toby Faletau

All good players on their day. You could find a number of better players in a few positions and improve it. One side MIGHT be:

15 Leigh Halfpenny
14 Maitland
13 Tuilagi
12 BOD
11 George North
10 J Sexton
9 Laidlaw
1 Gethin Jenkins (capt)
2 Best
3 Adam Jones
4 Alun Wyn Jones
5 Launchbury
6 Sam Warburton
7 Robshaw
8 Ben Morgan

I've done that very quickly without much thought. This doesn't matter though, because my point is that there is very little difference in standard between the Welsh XV and a possible Lions XV (the same for an England or Ireland XV too). Man for man they are all fairly well matched.

The problem the Welsh have I would therefore say is not selection. It is a mix of tactics and psychology.

The Aussies are the kings of the mind games. They also play a very varied attacking game with high skill levels. The Welsh seem to fall prey to both of these (Oz seem to really be a bogey team for them). As to how to combat these - I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think selection is too much of a problem. You could choose a random selection and you would have a team capable of beating Australia. Whether they would or not is done to tactics and psychology.

I have no issues with a large number of Welsh in the team...combos will work well...The welsh back row were epic, the welsh front row very impressive on Saturday, and previous 6n games this season.

However i want to see the right players picked from all nations.

For example im not a huge fan of Mike Philips who looks certain for the SH spot..... Against Oz id like to see Laidlaw maybe given a shot. He looks class and has more about him.

I just want the coaches to pick the best players and team we can...regardless of nationality, i will always support them and hope we do well...

I have a suggestion: Why don't we select a squad of the best 37 players on current form regardless of nationality and then apply the same criteria to selecting the best TEAM of 15 players to play the first test. A bit too radical for you?

The past win ratios for individul countries is irrelevant to the next Lions team. If there ends up being more Welsh players in the test side than other nations it will be because, currently they are playing better. Simple really.

LondonTiger wrote:It makes sense for Wales to provide the largest share of the squad. After that it is down to how the all gel in training and warm-up matches.

Successful Lions tours see a team forged from across the nations. Poor ones tend to have cliques and dominant factions.

The best of British and Irish should beat Australia.

We should have won in 93, 01, 09 also if going to form/paper... yet we lost all those series and I would say those tours had more talented players then this current class esp. 93.

fa0019 wrote:Its not just Wales with a poor record vs. AUS.

South Africa have 7 losses in last 9 matches vs. AUS.

AUS know how to play route 1, direct rugby. The boks have the biggest pack in world rugby and certainly have so over the last 4 years... yet AUS constantly do one over on us.

All this talk on us dominating AUS upfront is rubbish. Those who say that know little or nothing about the game down here.

Yes their have been games when they have been dominated such as the RWC11 vs. Ireland but 2 years on their team is far better in forwards now.

I recall back in 09 when everyone in the UK was saying how the Lions would beat up SA in the scrum and the series would follow suit.

0-8 is not bad luck... neither is 2-9.... its comprehensively superior be it tactically or player on player.

One stat does worry me however... Gatlands 1 win in 21 vs. the SH 3N's during his tenure with Wales. Thats car crash and I would say this years AUS is quite possibly the best during his tenure also.

FA you are now comparing apples with pears.

It is not the same situation, SA and OZ have been going toe to toe for a long time. The period of PDV is a shameful one at best.

maestegmafia wrote:I thought the majority's suggestion was to pick a squad on form?

If so, then i imagine that there would be a lot of Welsh players in there.

Its hard looking back at old results, certainly ones going back to the millennium as the majority of players who will be within the parameters of selection won't have been playing then.

Wales and England's squads average age is 25 or 26 and Scotland and Ireland can't be too much different.

That said Wales resent run vs Aussies has resulted in a whitewash since the RWC 2011 and the team that just retained the six Nations are predominantly the same players.

Most of those games were very very close. Lets hope with a little bit of help from our mates in England, Ireland and Scotland we can go three games in a row with a positive result.

How many games do we use to measure form? i don't think we can just use 80 minutes. last 5 games at a guess?

I want to ask a question to the Home nation posters.

When you say players will be picked on form.

I agree with that.

However are you looking at form based on last weekend, or consistent form over the year. Because there is a significant difference between the two.

If you selected a squad based on last weekend there will be plenty of Welsh players.

But, and this is a big but, which players have performed the best consistently against Australia, because that is what is important here.

The only IF going into the Lions with Welsh players is that they are................ well a very up/down lot. Yeah, they certainly can showboat but being realistic the showboating can lack punch at different times of the year too. The form can swing erratically.

English are solid. Sometimes higher than solid, sometimes lower than solid (yes, that game) But mostly, the English cruise at a certain pace and are trustworthy in that sense. You might not always get the fireworks but you'll get honest endeavour with an almost military disciplin consistency.

The Scots are an unknown quantity. They're in a place now that's hard to find a trite caricature for. They might be about to get very good indeed or it might be yet another false dawn smokescreen. They might excel in Australia or get dog's abuse thrown at them by a ............... well a certain media that will probably want few of them there in the first place. A lot of pressure on Scottish players who might get to Australia to make a mark and prove they are finally there by right.

Ireland have the uncanny knack of looking absolutely atrocious...the worst in Europe at times; but somehow still have this ability to drag out results/or hang in there when all evidence suggests they should just completely implode. And that's their principle weakness - that they often can do just that in spectacular ways - implode. No other players can implode like an Irish player on a bad day. Even the French implode with grace and style Irish players just look comical when they do it. But many of them have played in a dreadful side now for the guts of four years and can still do a first half freelance job like they did against Wales...where they live on their own instincts either for scoring realitively easily or surviving through heroic defending.

So, I'd suggest taking a bunch of out-of-form Welsh guys (as they'll be probably just coming into form by the time the Lions kick off )... have a foundation stone of English to keep the results coming in (even midweek games-wise to give a solid foundation.) Bring some Scots but keep them for the second halves of winning games when they'll be least likely to spoil a media party by the biggest media nation represented.....

The Irish? Well, if games turn into a stalemate wars of attrition.... let them loose. They mightn't win but they won't lose either

Biltong

Very valid question... in 1997 Rowntree and Leonard were the best props in the home nations..... no questions.

However one on one they were weaker than the boks.

Telfer had the idea to play a small front row who would make life difficult for the boks and it worked and the rest is history. Although I still recall our pack getting a beating for the entire series.

nathan wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:I thought the majority's suggestion was to pick a squad on form?

If so, then i imagine that there would be a lot of Welsh players in there.

Its hard looking back at old results, certainly ones going back to the millennium as the majority of players who will be within the parameters of selection won't have been playing then.

Wales and England's squads average age is 25 or 26 and Scotland and Ireland can't be too much different.

That said Wales resent run vs Aussies has resulted in a whitewash since the RWC 2011 and the team that just retained the six Nations are predominantly the same players.

Most of those games were very very close. Lets hope with a little bit of help from our mates in England, Ireland and Scotland we can go three games in a row with a positive result.

How many games do we use to measure form? i don't think we can just use 80 minutes. last 5 games at a guess?

As I said Wales resent run vs Aussies has resulted in a whitewash since the RWC 2011 and the team that just retained the Six Nations are predominantly the same players, the OP is very correct to bring that up because it is predominantly the same guys.

As well as that you have the form players, you also have the class players. Luckily for Wales by the end of this Six Nations they started getting some of their class players back to form.

What were being considered class players five or six weeks ago started to look less classy as the tournament progressed. A few weeks back I would have thought lads like Tom Croft, Ashton, Tuliagi, Danny Care, Heaslip, Sean O'Brien, Earls, Murray, Ford, Visser, Lydiate, Matt Rees would all have been very close to call ups.

Post six nations I am not so sure, infact a good number of those i would say have played themselves out of contention.

Trite stereotypical tripe...SF

I would go with no, it doesnt make sense. the only true 80 minute performance they put in was against england. you can't pick a lions team on 80 minutes of rugby.

Dont get me wrong, there will be a large selection of welsh players but i think that was the case before the six nations.

Bsando, another way of looking at the recent Welsh performances (performances beyond a season or two are irrelevant) against Australia is that they have all been knife edge close- Wales were leading each of the last 3 games right up until the last few plays where Australia stole victory by (literally) 1 or 2 points on each occasion. This shows that Wales are quite capable of mixing it up with Australia, and that with a little bolstering with a few players from the other home nations should be able to see them off.

I am a Welsh fan but also a lions fan so would like to see much more than a few players from the other home nations, but I genuinely see Wales' recent performances against Australia as a positive rather than a negative because while it shows that Wales are behind Australia in development, the gap is tiny AND the lions have three other whole nations to choose from.

FA unfortunately the Lions Series of 1997 was an anomaly in many aspects.

It was a series in which Carel du plessis wanted the Boks to play a different brand of rugby, and even though we outscored the Lions (in particular one where we scored 3 tries to zip and yet lost) but lost because of smarts.

So I believe it is a tough challenge for any coach to select between, form, reputation, experience, consistency and smarts.

gowershowerpower wrote:Trite stereotypical tripe...SF

Of course...and as always with me, lashing of truth sprinkled into it too

SecretFly wrote:

gowershowerpower wrote:Trite stereotypical tripe...SF

Of course...and as always with me, lashing of truth sprinkled into it too

i am just wondering what it is steriotypical of?

sprinkling of truth lashed into it?

Biltong wrote:FA unfortunately the Lions Series of 1997 was an anomaly in many aspects.

It was a series in which Carel du plessis wanted the Boks to play a different brand of rugby, and even though we outscored the Lions (in particular one where we scored 3 tries to zip and yet lost) but lost because of smarts.

So I believe it is a tough challenge for any coach to select between, form, reputation, experience, consistency and smarts.

I agree, McGeechan the coach is held up as a god of rugby for that series but he's had many throws of the dice and only got it right a fraction of the time.
He's made many many mistakes in tours and by the sheer talent he had at his disposal he scraped through in a few matches.

Test coaches probably need 40+ matches to work out their best combo's.. Lions tour coaches have 2 shots at best (given they have to win 1 of the first 2 matches to win the series).

gowershowerpower wrote:sprinkling of truth lashed into it?

Yes. Most definitely.

ok. then agreed...

Biltong wrote:I want to ask a question to the Home nation posters.

When you say players will be picked on form.

I agree with that.

However are you looking at form based on last weekend, or consistent form over the year. Because there is a significant difference between the two.

If you selected a squad based on last weekend there will be plenty of Welsh players.

But, and this is a big but, which players have performed the best consistently against Australia, because that is what is important here.

I think if you look at most of the sensible lions squads posted on v2 threads, they have been picked with an acknowlegment that one game doesn't determine form. We all have our biases but across the 6N's some players have progressively played themselves into the squad eg Tipuric? and some out eg Ashton?

'ut, and this is a big but, which players have performed the best consistently against Australia, because that is what is important here.'

not it isn't. it's players who are performing the best right now (or at the time) that's important. Form players will have form regardless who against, but someone out of form, isn't going to suddenly be on fire because it's OZ.

I think the opposite Gowershower,

I don't think that just picking on form is the way to go for the Lions personally.

There is a lot more than just form which is important. Style of play, units who will play well together, experience etc will all be relevant.

Obviously picking guys who are playing rubbish is a bad idea but just because a guy has a few good games during the 6 Nations is not good enough way of picking a squad.

Ashton, Lawes, B Youngs know what it is like to beat AUS... twice in fact .. a couple of years ago. But I would hesitate to recommend these guys now.

I agree Stag, rugby in mid winter in the north will have little resemblance to rugby in the SH. Pitches, climate etc all all different and suit different players.

a unit won't play well together if the players in that unit are effing shoite though!

Yes experience, I agree. But, again a slightly less inexperienced player would get the nod over an experienced shoite player.

etc etc

gowershowerpower wrote:'ut, and this is a big but, which players have performed the best consistently against Australia, because that is what is important here.'

not it isn't. it's players who are performing the best right now (or at the time) that's important. Form players will have form regardless who against, but someone out of form, isn't going to suddenly be on fire because it's OZ.

but in practice it isn't always so cut and dried, Gowers. It isn't.

Look at Welsh players after their world cup exploits. For a while they took that heady form into their respective regions...and I think I remember them doing very well for a time but then they just started to fade badly (correct me by all means if that's a wrong reading of it - memory can get confused with so many non-rubgy related things on my mind - but I seem to recall that's how it went.)

So form can dramatically slip away...and the players getting on the planes in fine form might just come unstuck as the weeks in Australia progress. It happens. Ireland went into the 2007 world cup with a real conviction of being in the right condition to do very well (and not just the irish were saying so)...form simply left them completely when they got there.

okay the SF, then let's do the only logical thing remaining and pick absolutely rubbish players in the hope that they become OZ beaters due to snorting some funny powder on the flight over....

I know it's not always cut and dried...but in-form players must be taken.

I'm all for taking a few big match proven talismen - BOD? Phillips? POC?

But - is anyone really suggesting that we should fill the plane with reputation alone? I hope not.

"Does it make sense..."

NO.

agreed OL...

BOD, Phillips, AJ, AWJ....big match dudes.

gowershowerpower wrote:'ut, and this is a big but, which players have performed the best consistently against Australia, because that is what is important here.'

not it isn't. it's players who are performing the best right now (or at the time) that's important. Form players will have form regardless who against, but someone out of form, isn't going to suddenly be on fire because it's OZ.

ok, let me ask you this then.

Let's thumbsuck a player that has been a journeyman for let's say Scotland.

For the scenario we will call him Spikkels.

Now Spikkel has been in the scottish side for a number of years, in fact he has not yet reached his prime.

All of a sudden he plays a blinder against Italy and Wales just be fore the selections are being made.


Do you select Spikkels?

screamingaddabs wrote:Ok, lets start with the Wales XV against England:

15 Leigh Halfpenny
14Alex Cuthbert
13Jonathan Davies
12Jamie Roberts
11George North
10Dan Biggar
9 Mike Phillips
1 Gethin Jenkins (capt)
2 Richard Hibbard
3 Adam Jones
4 Alun Wyn Jones
5 Ian Evans
6 Sam Warburton
7 Justin Tipuric
8 Toby Faletau

All good players on their day. You could find a number of better players in a few positions and improve it. One side MIGHT be:

15 Leigh Halfpenny
14 Maitland
13 Tuilagi
12 BOD
11 George North
10 J Sexton
9 Laidlaw
1 Gethin Jenkins (capt)
2 Best
3 Adam Jones
4 Alun Wyn Jones
5 Launchbury
6 Sam Warburton
7 Robshaw
8 Ben Morgan

I've done that very quickly without much thought. This doesn't matter though, because my point is that there is very little difference in standard between the Welsh XV and a possible Lions XV (the same for an England or Ireland XV too). Man for man they are all fairly well matched.

The problem the Welsh have I would therefore say is not selection. It is a mix of tactics and psychology.

The Aussies are the kings of the mind games. They also play a very varied attacking game with high skill levels. The Welsh seem to fall prey to both of these (Oz seem to really be a bogey team for them). As to how to combat these - I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think selection is too much of a problem. You could choose a random selection and you would have a team capable of beating Australia. Whether they would or not is done to tactics and psychology.

It shows...stopped reading after laidlaw..oh dear

does two decent games constitute form?

Did Spikkel play well consistently against Australia? Your criteria for selection.

offload wrote:I'm all for taking a few big match proven talismen - BOD? Phillips? POC?

But - is anyone really suggesting that we should fill the plane with reputation alone? I hope not.

Offload, I think anyone who is suggesting using one criteria alone is insane. Doesnt matter if that is form, reputation, leadership, versatility, established combinations, previous Lions tourist, unique skill set, experience or anything.

The only question is "Will picking this player will give us the best chance of a win?".

Not "Is he on form?" or "Has he been on tour before" or "Has he beaten Australia before"

End of thread Red.

100%beefy wrote:

It shows...stopped reading after laidlaw..oh dear

Then how did you get to the "not much thought" bit? It comes after Laidlaw is mentioned.

Never mind the fact that as I said "IT DOESN'T MATTER". My whole point is that the selection isn't massively important in my opinion.

Hilarious post, if you count players who are still playing at the moment on these wins over Australia the English have beat them twice and the Welsh once with one draw.

Also if we use this reasoning shouldn't Irish and Scottish also be more prominent in the Lions squad?
Scotland beat the Aussies in Australia last year and the current Irish set up beat them in the World Cup.

Can we please put to bed this myth that England always do well against southern hemisphere teams,
the purple patch England had with Woodward was a very good spell for English rugby,but boy don't you guys coat tail it.
What that fantastic group of players did back then has absolutely no bearing on the current England squad.

I have a Calve Raiser in my gym,proper old school one used by many Mr Universes in years gone by also Mr Olympia Lee Haney has used it! does that make me a Champion body builder? not by a long shot

The Lions will be a healthy mix of all nations and Gatland will be very fair with letting players earn the shirt from the mid week games.

gowershowerpower wrote:does two decent games constitute form?

Did Spikkel play well consistently against Australia? Your criteria for selection.

you tell me mate, I told you he is a journeyman.

A journeyman like Etzebeth?

or another type of journeyman?

gregortree wrote:Ashton, Lawes, B Youngs know what it is like to beat AUS... twice in fact .. a couple of years ago. But I would hesitate to recommend these guys now.

?????

Ashton i can agree with and maybe lawes but what the hell did B. Youngs do wrong?

Crickey, since the Wales loss people have gone crazy!

gowershowerpower wrote:okay the SF, then let's do the only logical thing remaining and pick absolutely rubbish players in the hope that they become OZ beaters due to snorting some funny powder on the flight over....

I know it's not always cut and dried...but in-form players must be taken.

Yeah, let's use my experimental model. I'm all for it and it's patented too so I should make a bit of money on it.

Back in the real world though - unfortunately - of course Gatland is going to have to decide based on things like form coming into, performances against Australia in the past etc.

That wasn't my point. Never said he should pick no-hopers - only in that jokey stereotypical post I made which you seemed to take way too seriously

But to suggest form players should go because form players are the most likely to respond and perform doesn't work in reality all the time. That was a point being made not a suggestion as to how Gatland should coach. He'll have to make his judgements based on something, but don't be surprised if some of the in-formers show little and rather some of the wildcards he might have along...do. That's life - it happens.

This is a problem i could see developing as Wales got better...afyer the 2005 Slam SCW was recorded saying if he picked the Lions side that day it would be Wales with a couple of additions. That was pure spin on his part and everyone knows that he did not do that when the time came.

Wales record v Australia pre World Cup was respectable, they had beaten them and drawn with them in recent years. Australia were the SH side that you always felt Wales could beat.

But then came RWC, the 3rd place play off and tour. 5/5 meltdown with the side that just murdered England. To say that they will carry a monkey on their backs about that seems obvious but i just cannot see how psychologically such repeated defeats would not affect a player, the team, coaches etc.

So, after a superb fight back and an imperious destruction of the Slam pretenders Wales are yet again on the crest of the 6 Nations wave, a wave that this time they have continued to ride and not fallen off.

But we know translating that to SH performances has not come and though i think this last performance was mature, error free and irresistible even for the mighty SH sides, we just won't know until we test it.

What we can't do is test it against Aus in the lions. They out thought and out manouvred us winning close games with tiny margins. They have the best back lien in the world, they can now live with us up front.

We need to blow them away up front but not rely on that, we need to have a back ine that can create and can manage theirs. We need BOD.

What we don't want is to say, Wales are the best team in the NH, which is a fact, they wear red shirts, ets save some cash and throw them out there, that is not what being a Lion is. Though the constituent parts come from such strong national teams there is no feeling o f national identity when you scream Lions from the stand at loftus, just a touring side who wear red.

No doubt on merit there will be at least 7 or 8 Welsh players in the Test side, but we must also make mention of the class players from the other nations who we need to form that nationless team.

Youngs, Farrell, Tuilagi, Croft, Wood, BOD, Best, Healy, Ryan, SOB, Zebo, Hogg to name but a few

but if you don't take form players, how will you know if they perform on form on not perform on form if they aren't there to perform?

100%beefy

Wales record pre world cup vs. AUS was respectable?

So since the 03 world cup up to RWC11 a record of 2 wins in 8 is respectable? Both wins coming at home.

You can explain every loss with xyz, bounce of the ball, final kick, wrong tactics on the day but over 21 games under Gatland vs. the SH 3N sides is enough to even those out..... and 1 win in 21 is not respectable.

During that time Scotland have 3 wins.