Amlin Cup 1/4 Finals

I am not a huge fan of teams dropping down from the HEC to the Amlin as it feels unfair on the teams in the Amlin, and can give cheap ERC qualifying points to the lesser runners up from the HEC. However it does make things more interesting.
Predicting these games is difficult till teams are announced as it is hard to know just how seriously they will take this competition.

Gloucester v Biarritz
The 1/4s start with an intriguing fixture on Thursday night. Biarritz secured their HEC spot for this season by winning the Amlin last year in a kicking dirge with Toulon. Sitting in 8th spot in the T14, 12 points behind 6th and a guaranteed HEC spot, this tournament is their best realistic chance of making it again next year. Gloucester may have one eye on making the AP play-offs and rest some players. This is unlikely to include Freddie Burns, who is in need of game time as he tries to regain his Autumn form. Gloucester are in better form, Biarritz are likely to select closer to their full team. If Gloucester can avoid getting dragged into a tactical match (is Yachvili suspended?) they should win.


Wasps v Leinster
3 Anglo/Irish ties in (or near) London start on Friday night. Much depends just how seriously Leinster decide to take this competition. Should they send a near full strength team, it is hard to see anything but a Leinster victory. Wasps are not on a good run of results, however should Leinster choose to rest players for this match, they have the skill and pace to win.


Perpignan v Toulouse
I just cannot see Toulouse taking this all French tie seriously. The T14 surely will top their priorities, where they currently lie in 3rd place. Even so in HEC and T14, Toulouse have shown they are fallible away from home even with a full team. Perpignan are 7th in T14, 6pts behind 6th and automatic HEC spot and play-offs. With just 3 matches to go making up that differential is not easy - so play-off spots look unlikely. 7th place could be good enough for an HEC spot dependent on winners of this and the HEC. Gut feeling is Perpignan will sneak this one.


Bath v Stade Francais
Saturday lunchtime sees Bath host Stade in the only all Amlin 1/4 final. Stade Francais having nothing to play for in the T14, other than pride, so expect them to bring a strong team to the Rec. Bath are unlikely to challenge for an AP play-off spot and are in a 3 way fight for the 6th HEC spot. By picking a near full strength team in the LV semi, Gary Gold has shown that trying to win some silverware is paramount. Expect him to pick his strongest available team - does that include Stephen Donald? Bath at the moment (similar to Stade) can veer from the good to the shockingly awful. Stade may just be too big in the pack.



My predicted winners (before knowing the teams selected):
Gloucester, Leinster, Perpignan, Stade Francais

Nice analysis LondonTiger.

I think Bath will turn over Stade Francais actually.

Nice summary Tiger. Great to see such quality in this level of the competition as sad as I am to say it (Leinster fan).

In all seriousness though the standard is very high this year I think.

Stade Francais away form has been really bad since the beginning of the season so also think Bath could make it (unless they are now as bad as say worcester or LW).
Otherwise agree with the other predictions

Should Bath play well, I can see them winning easily, I just have this nagging fear that stade will Steamroller them.

Thought you might like this....

http://forum.leinsterfans.com/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=22490

has to be a Stade v Leinster final in the RDS. Isa and Dr Phil to play their last game of pro Rugby (hopefully 2nd last for Isa) there would be fitting.

I think Leinster will put out the strongest team available to them for the rest of the season. Sexton won't make it this week, Reddan and Fitzgerald are out for the rest of the season and Drico is suspended until next week, but other than that we've the rest of our first team players available, and with the international window over and only a possible 7 or 8 games left I think aside from a bit of rotation for some league games (Zebre away) we'll be going balls out for both cups on offer.

I would expect this team for this week:

Healy - Strauss - Ross
Cullen - Toner
O'Brien - Heaslip - Jennings
Boss - Madigan
McFadden - Darcy - O'Malley - Nacewa
Kearney

Cronin - VDM - Hagan - Roux - McLaughlin - Cooney - Reid - Conway

O'Malley out is the word Mick. Either Goodman Darce or Darce Ferg in the centre.

Not sure about VDM either. Baby Kearney could be out too but you haven't selected him strangely

Also. Noel Reid? Are you on drugs?

We could be needing a 5 pointer away to the Zebras.

Goodman/Darce or Darce/Ferg…?

Neither are ideal, not very balanced. Would probably go for the latter though.

I thought Hank was back last week, but then I saw him outside after the match. Must be still injured.

Yeah, I stuck Reid in there in case of an injury. But on reflection, it’s a break in case of serious emergency call.

Oh Yeah. BTW Mick. There is a thread on our match. Possibly best to leave this one for general discussion of the QFs. Don't want to pi$$ off Bath or Gloucester fans.

https://www.606v2.com/t42591-amlin-1-4-wasps-vs-leinster#1961518

Edit: I would have a mix of Goodman, Dave Kearney, Carr, Conway in the 22 & 23 Jerseys. Goodman or Isa cover 10 in an emergency and Reid is being groomed for 12/15 more than 10 now. (Plus he's not ready for this level of game either)

Gloucester to just scrape past Biarritz in a messy game.

Leinster to steam roller Wasps

Perpignan to beat a disinterested Toulouse side

Bath to beat a hopeless Stade

Gloucester
Leinster if they take it seriously
Toulouse in a tight one
Bath

Slightly biased, but I'm going for:

Glaws
Leinster
Toulouse
Bath

If Bath were to win, the reward for being the top pool qualifier would be a semi away at either Toulouse or Perpignan!

Some very strong sides in the Amlin this year, great for the tournament.

Gloucester team for tomorrow night:

Martyn Thomas; Charlie Sharples, Henry Trinder, Mike Tindall (capt), Jonny May; Freddie Burns, Dave Lewis; Nick Wood, Koree Britton, Shaun Knight; Lua Lokotui, Will James; Tom Savage, Akapusi Qera, Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements: Huia Edmonds, Dan Murphy, Dario Chistolini, Andy Hazell, Gareth Evans, Dan Robson, Billy Twelvetrees, Shane Monahan

LondonTiger wrote:Gloucester team for tomorrow night:

Martyn Thomas; Charlie Sharples, Henry Trinder, Mike Tindall (capt), Jonny May; Freddie Burns, Dave Lewis; Nick Wood, Koree Britton, Shaun Knight; Lua Lokotui, Will James; Tom Savage, Akapusi Qera, Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements: Huia Edmonds, Dan Murphy, Dario Chistolini, Andy Hazell, Gareth Evans, Dan Robson, Billy Twelvetrees, Shane Monahan

Wow! Didn't realise he was still playing. I thought he went into coaching them this season. Is he player coach or something?

Taking injuries and suspensions into account that is pretty much a full strength team for Glaws bar the resting of Cook and 36. It should be a dry day tomorrow, so hopefully we'll get the ball wide and stretch the Biarritz forwards around the park.

Ozzy, can you ask your colleagues to avoid the M5 tomorrow evening so that I can get to the game on time?

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Gloucester team for tomorrow night:

Martyn Thomas; Charlie Sharples, Henry Trinder, Mike Tindall (capt), Jonny May; Freddie Burns, Dave Lewis; Nick Wood, Koree Britton, Shaun Knight; Lua Lokotui, Will James; Tom Savage, Akapusi Qera, Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements: Huia Edmonds, Dan Murphy, Dario Chistolini, Andy Hazell, Gareth Evans, Dan Robson, Billy Twelvetrees, Shane Monahan

Wow! Didn't realise he was still playing. I thought he went into coaching them this season. Is he player coach or something?

He's our player/coach. He's arguably having his best ever season for us!!

13. Trinder

11. May
14. Sharples

15. Thomas

is some seeeerrrious speed. Looking forward to those boys getting their hands on the ball on Thursday evening. If Biarritz bring Balshaw and Ngwenya along too there might be some interesting races.

HongKongCherry wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Gloucester team for tomorrow night:

Martyn Thomas; Charlie Sharples, Henry Trinder, Mike Tindall (capt), Jonny May; Freddie Burns, Dave Lewis; Nick Wood, Koree Britton, Shaun Knight; Lua Lokotui, Will James; Tom Savage, Akapusi Qera, Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements: Huia Edmonds, Dan Murphy, Dario Chistolini, Andy Hazell, Gareth Evans, Dan Robson, Billy Twelvetrees, Shane Monahan

Wow! Didn't realise he was still playing. I thought he went into coaching them this season. Is he player coach or something?

He's our player/coach. He's arguably having his best ever season for us!!

Cool. I think I saw one Gloucester game this season and he was not there. He was over in Dublin in the pre season friendly but did not play. I thought he looked like he was coaching ok.

We may get a closer look if we can both win. Not feeling too confident tbh. Then again I was sure we would beat Ulster without Afoa last Saturday so I could be wrong.

jeffwinger wrote:13. Trinder

11. May
14. Sharples

15. Thomas

is some seeeerrrious speed. Looking forward to those boys getting their hands on the ball on Thursday evening. If Biarritz bring Balshaw and Ngwenya along too there might be some interesting races.

Certainly is and it's the right conditions to see that speed. unfortunately Balsh won't be returning as he's got any injury, but no doubt the takings in the Cheltenham bars will be all the better for it!

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

HongKongCherry wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:Gloucester team for tomorrow night:

Martyn Thomas; Charlie Sharples, Henry Trinder, Mike Tindall (capt), Jonny May; Freddie Burns, Dave Lewis; Nick Wood, Koree Britton, Shaun Knight; Lua Lokotui, Will James; Tom Savage, Akapusi Qera, Sione Kalamafoni

Replacements: Huia Edmonds, Dan Murphy, Dario Chistolini, Andy Hazell, Gareth Evans, Dan Robson, Billy Twelvetrees, Shane Monahan

Wow! Didn't realise he was still playing. I thought he went into coaching them this season. Is he player coach or something?

He's our player/coach. He's arguably having his best ever season for us!!

Cool. I think I saw one Gloucester game this season and he was not there. He was over in Dublin in the pre season friendly but did not play. I thought he looked like he was coaching ok.

We may get a closer look if we can both win. Not feeling too confident tbh. Then again I was sure we would beat Ulster without Afoa last Saturday so I could be wrong.

Wasps are a vastly improved side, but they're in the middle of a dip in form. I'm sure you'll have far too much for them...

Biarritz starting team from 15 to 1 :
Bosch; Ngwenya, Baby, Traille, Thomas; Barraque , Yachvili ; Lakafia, Harinordoquy (cap), Molcard; Marie, E. Lund; Gomez Kodela, Heguy, Van Staden.
As strong as it gets for Biarritz.
Player missing : brew been injured for 2 weeks now

Perpignan v Toulouse teams:

Perpignan:
15. Gavin Hume, 14. Farid Sid, 13. Lifeimi Mafi, 12. Sione Piukala, 11. Adrien Plante, 10. James Hook, 9. Florian Cazenave, 1. Sebastien Taofifenua, 2. Guilhem Guirado, 3. Nicolas Mas, 4. Sebastien Vahaamahina, 5. Romain Taofifenua, 6. Dan Leo, 7. Alasdair Strokosch, 8. Henry Tuilagi,
16. Romain Terrain, 17. Sona Taumalolo, 18. Kisi Pulu, 19. Guillaume Vilaceca, 20. David Mele, 21. sofiane guitoune, 22. Bertrand Guiry, 23. Luke Narraway,


Toulouse:
15. Maxime Medard, 14. Timoci Matanavou, 13. Florian Fritz, 12. Gaël Fickou, 11. Yves Donguy, 10. Lionel Beauxis, 9. Luke Burgess, 1. Jean-Baptiste Poux, 2. Jaba Bregvadze, 3. Vasil Kakovin, 4. Romain Millo-Chluski, 5. Edwin Maka, 6. Grégory Lamboley, 7. Sylvain Nicolas, 8. Gillian Galan,
16. Christopher Tolofua, 17. CYRIL BAILLE, 18. Yohan Montes, 19. Ruslan Boukerou, 20. KARL CHATEAU, 21. Yannick Jauzion, 22. Yann David , 23. Sebastien Bezy,



not sure on the strength of the Perpignan side (though good to see Hook and Stroks ensure we have Welsh and Scottish interest this weekend ). Toulouse have a strong looking back line, even missing the likes of Clerc and McAliister. their pack though seems to be resting most of the big boys.

Bath still have tickets available for the 1/4 final. Entertainment is provided by the Wurzels. If you ar ein the area how can you miss that?

LondonTiger wrote:Bath still have tickets available for the 1/4 final. Entertainment is provided by the Wurzels. If you ar ein the area how can you miss that?

Wow! Are they still on the go? I was in school the last time I heard of them. And I'm bleeden ancient.