Leinster v Ospreys, 3 May 2013 - Build-up & match thread

[George Carlin]

Leinster Rugby v Ospreys
Friday 3rd May 2013
KO 19:45
Royal Dublin Society

Live on TG4 and S4C

Referee: Nigel Owens (WRU, 98th competition game)
Assistant Referees: Mark Patton, Stuart Gaffikin (both IRFU)
Citing Commissioner: Eugene Ryan (IRFU)
TMO: Alan Rogan (IRFU)

TEAMS:

Leinster
15: Rob Kearney
14: Andrew Conway
13: Fergus McFadden
12: Ian Madigan
11: Isa Nacewa
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Isaac Boss

1: Jack McGrath
2: Sean Cronin
3: Jamie Hagan
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Quinn Roux
6: Rhys Ruddock
7: Shane Jennings
8: Sean O'Brien

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Richardt Strauss
17: Cian Healy
18: Michael Bent
19: Devin Toner
20: Dominic Ryan
21: John Cooney
22: Andrew Goodman
23: Brian O'Driscoll

Ospreys
15 Richard Fussell
14 Tom Habberfield
13 Ashley Beck
12 Ben John
11 Ross Jones
10 Dan Biggar
9 Rhys Webb

1 Duncan Jones
2 Scott Baldwin
3 Adam Jones
4 Alun-Wyn Jones
5 James King
6 Justin Tipuric
7 Sam Lewis
8 Joe Bearman

16 Dimitri Arhip
17 Ryan Bevington
18 Cai Griffiths
19 Ian Evans
20 Morgan Allen
21 Matthew Morgan
22 Tom Isaacs
23 Jonathan Spratt

FORM:

Leinster

21/4/13 Zebre 22 - 41 Leinster
13/4/13 Munster 16 - 22 Leinster
30/3/13 Leinster 18 - 22 Ulster

Ospreys

19/4/13 Glasgow 35 - 17 Ospreys
13/4/13 Ospreys 28 - 3 Treviso
30/3/13 Blues 16 - 23 Ospreys

CURRENT STANDINGS:

1			Ulster Rugby												76
2			Leinster Rugby												73
3			Glasgow Warriors												72
4			Scarlets												66
5			Ospreys												62

FINAL DAY FIXTURES:

ALL games kick off at 19:45 UK time:

Connacht v Glasgow @ Sportsground
Edinburgh v Dragons @ Murrayfield
Leinster v Ospreys @ Royal Dublin Society
Scarlets v Treviso @ Parc y Scarlets
Ulster v Blues @ Ravenhill
Zebre v Munster @ Stadio XXV Aprile

RABO RULES FOR PLAY-OFFS:

Paragraph 3.5:

"If two or more Teams finish with the same number of league points, their placings will be determined by the following criteria in descending order:

• number of matches won;
• the difference between points for and points against;
• the number of tries scored;
• the most points scored;
• the difference between tries for and tries against;
• the fewest number of red cards received;
• the fewest number of yellow cards received."

OFFICIAL PREVIEW:
Leinster must win to ensure home advantage in the Play-Offs.

Leinster's only defeat in their last 14 contests in all competitions was 18-22 at home to Ulster in the RaboDirect PRO12 on 30th March. The Leinstermen have lost just once to a Welsh region in any competition this season: 10-19 at the Ospreys in round 8 of the PRO12.

Ospreys also must win to give themselves any chance of taking the 4th Play-Off spot away from the Scarlets. Ospreys five match unbeaten run in the PRO12 ended in the last round with their 17-35 reversal in Glasgow.

Leinster have won just one of their last seven contests with Ospreys: 15-10 at the RDS in January 2011.

All kinds of exciting permutations for the last game. Thought that I would start the thread now because I am in that sort of mood.

Some questions to kick us off:

1. Will Schmidt play Madigan or Sexton at 10?

2. Will there be any chance to the backline that scored 5 against Zebre?

3. What changes will be made the Spreys after their setback in Glasgow?

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

Jeebus the Ospreys need a big game don't they?
They need to hope Scarlets don't get a result against ????

You'd feel that Leinster should win this at home but the O's have been our bogey team in big games at the RDS for a few years now, the baxtards!!

EXCELLENT op by the by, crests in there and all. Any chance you could add in who everyone is playing this weekend? Leinster vs O's, Glasgow vs Connacht etc.

[asoreleftshoulder]

Who plays at 10 will depend on D'Arcy being fit imo,I'd say Madigan will get another run at 12 if D'Arcy isn't back.

Are there any injury worries after the Amlin semi?

[George Carlin]

Jeebus the Ospreys need a big game don't they?
They need to hope Scarlets don't get a result against ????

You'd feel that Leinster should win this at home but the O's have been our bogey team in big games at the RDS for a few years now, the baxtards!!

EXCELLENT op by the by, crests in there and all. Any chance you could add in who everyone is playing this weekend? Leinster vs O's, Glasgow vs Connacht etc.

Done Pete

[Golden]

So if Scarlets lose and Ospreys win both without a bonus point, theyll be level on points with the same number of wins so does it go to points difference (Ospreys qualify), or tries scored (Ospreys qualify) or maybe bonus points (Scarlets qualify)?

[George Carlin]

So if Scarlets lose and Ospreys win both without a bonus point, theyll be level on points with the same number of wins so does it go to points difference (Ospreys qualify), or tries scored (Ospreys qualify) or maybe bonus points (Scarlets qualify)?

OP updated, Golden.

[Gibson]

If Leinster play the way we did yesterday, we will exact sweet revenge for the 2 x RABO Final defeats.

It will be a 5-pointer. We owe them big-time. We will eat them.

Loving the OP setup Georgie. Keep it going man.

[Feckless Rogue]

I think it's about time the Ospreys were punished for their past insolence. Put them their place lads.

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

Jeebus the Ospreys need a big game don't they?
They need to hope Scarlets don't get a result against ????

You'd feel that Leinster should win this at home but the O's have been our bogey team in big games at the RDS for a few years now, the baxtards!!

EXCELLENT op by the by, crests in there and all. Any chance you could add in who everyone is playing this weekend? Leinster vs O's, Glasgow vs Connacht etc.

Done Pete

Fantastic OP George great stuff

[Notch]

I vote to make this the official thread for discussion of all last round fixtures. Always better craic to have discussion of all games running simultaneously.

[Gibson]

I'll 2nd that emotion. Keep the craic, banter and hopes of all fans involved, in one place, for the last day of the season proper.

Maybe adjust the Title to reflect this, Georgie? All teams concerned listed and their squads named. An ting.

[Notch]

I won't be online though, cos I'll be at Ravenhill. Good thing about that is I only have to worry about what other teams are doing if we don't do our job and beat Cardiff.

[Golden]

I shall be in the RDS and its just 3 days before my exams start but priorities....

[glamorganalun]

The Ospreys should put a second team out and save the players for the Lions as they have no chance of getting to the play offs.

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

So if the Scarlets get a losing bonus point against Treviso at home then the Ospreys need a Try bonus point against Leinster away in which case the Ospreys would go through on point difference

Realistically, the Scarlets are in control of their own fate if they get a draw or the O's don't the TBP

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

Same principle with Ulster and Leinster too

[PenfroPete]

Big win for Leinster - it is written
Can't see the Scarlets slipping up against Benetton Treviso. Appalling start to the season -
Treviso 12 - Ospreys 6
Ospreys 13 - Ulster 16
Ospreys 10 - Glasgow 28

has come back to bite the O's

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

Big win for Leinster - it is written
Can't see the Scarlets slipping up against Benetton Treviso. Appalling start to the season -
Treviso 12 - Ospreys 6
Ospreys 13 - Ulster 16
Ospreys 10 - Glasgow 28

has come back to bite the O's

I'd agree. Quite scary as I feel Leinster could very easily have been in the same position if it wasn't for the after Christmas renaissance.

[Jenifer McLadyboy]

Same principle with Ulster and Leinster too

Ulster or Leinster coming 1st or 2nd is irrelevant. If either team is in the final then the final will be in the RDS. Even if Leinster come 3rd. If they are in the final it will be in the RDS. Obviously they would have to travel to the semi though.

Leinster have won only once in 7 meetings with the Ospreys. Time for a change.

McGrath
Cronin
Hagan/Ross
Roux/Cullen
Toner
Ruddock
Jennings
O'Brien

Cooney
Madigan
D Kearney
D'Arcy
O'Driscoll
McFadden
R Kearney

Strauss
Healy
Ross/Hagan
Cullen/Roux
Ryan
Boss
Sexton
Nacewa

Seems to be the consensus on Leinsterfans. Discussion centring on the Ross and Cullen selections.

[Notch]

I'm not sure about Ulster selection. I think mainly our top team need gametime together more than anything else. Also we've had a week off then we have this game, then the semi-final then another week off before the final should we win that game. So the guys have had some rest weeks mixed in and should be capable of peaking.

I'm not sure whether or not we start with the big guns and bring a few of them off if things are going well to rest them for the semi, or start a few of the bigger players on the bench to act as the cavalry in the second half and get match sharp.

Either way i expect Ulster to go for a stronger team than Leinster without the distraction of the Amlin. Big question is who is dropped between Gilroy, Trimble and Bowe but I would like to see a backrow of Henderson, Henry and Diack.

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

You wouldn't include Williams????

[Golden]

Considering the scrum has been a big area where the Ospreys have targetted us in the past I'd like to see Ross and Roux start

[Gibson]

Same principle with Ulster and Leinster too

Ulster or Leinster coming 1st or 2nd is irrelevant. If either team is in the final then the final will be in the RDS. Even if Leinster come 3rd. If they are in the final it will be in the RDS. Obviously they would have to travel to the semi though.

Leinster have won only once in 7 meetings with the Ospreys. Time for a change.

McGrath
Cronin
Hagan/Ross
Roux/Cullen
Toner
Ruddock
Jennings
O'Brien

Cooney
Madigan
D Kearney
D'Arcy
O'Driscoll
McFadden
R Kearney

Strauss
Healy
Ross/Hagan
Cullen/Roux
Ryan
Boss
Sexton
Nacewa

Seems to be the consensus on Leinsterfans. Discussion centring on the Ross and Cullen selections.

Good team with a fierce bench. Like it. Well thought out, specially with the run-in in mind. But.

There should be no discussion on Cullen/Roux. Leo (Captain. My Captain!) starts. Devin starts from here on in. He needs all the big games he can get to harden him. And I'm not talking stiffies here, but didn't he do well? Man was an apprentice basterd v the BO bullies. Good stuff. Great to see.

On the other discussion, I'd start Hagan. Its time. He's ready.
Ruddock is growing in strength and influence at last and has surely earned an extension. Cronin needs a decent run. The boy has so much in him. Strauss the superior player, but Cronin is electric in the loose.

Apparently.. and please don't quote me on this, but Leinster are in serious decline. Bless em.

4 more years of European domination coming roysh up.

Believe.

[Jenifer McLadyboy]

Typical. Hagan comes into form when he is leaving.

Leo probably needs minding.

I agree Toner had a great game V Body Odour on Saturday, him and Roux with Ross may be the way to go as Golden says. Os have feck all in the backline and Duncan Jones is well past his best. But their scrum is still decent.

Barring complacency we should have too much for them.

Roux is none to fit at this stage and he looks to be minding his dodgy shoulder. He will be a belter next season.

McCarthy, Roux and Marshall as TH locks. Toner Cullen and Denton on the LH side. Although Toner and Denton can play both sides of the scrum.

Not sure whether Flanagan will still be with us as 6 locks is usually enough.

Apparently Kev has a broken nose, and there are pictures of Jamie's leg having been raked with studs. Nasty gash on his thigh. Happened at the end of the game.

[Gibson]

Really forgot Hagan was leaving us Jen. Wot en gobshoite.

Noticed Leinsterfans omitted Heaslip from the squad, at a time when he is on fire. He still needs to seal his Lions spot. He went a long way towards it on the weekend, but he really needs to show his stuff at the business-end to come to convince Gats, I reckon.

Maybe the new Irish Coach (Allah-Phookinlooyaaah), will save him for the 2 Finals and the Lions Tour? Who really knows?

[VinceWLB]

Hagan is a big signing for London Irish, but lets face it it's a terrible call from the management to let him go, i mean Bent doesn't really cut the mustard and Ross is showing he is well past his best.

[George Carlin]

Ah, here. Glad the thread is going down well.

It would be good if we had a 'Rabo Last Day - Permutations Thread' (which will doubtless be updated frantically on the last day) with all of the different possibilities depending on what the top 5 teams will do but I don't have time to put it up in a meaningful way at the moment. I will if I have time later and can find the analysis ready cooked elsewhere for me to just load up. Honest.

Will keep this as 'Ospreys Huge Victory Giving Glasgow A Home Semi' thread for now...

[Guest]

Great thread purely for two reasons. Fantastic OP and for Gibson making me giggle when he mentioned stiffies (immature, I know).

I would expect Leinster to beat the Ospreys this weekend, because they have great momentum coming into it after the Biarritz game.

I'll keep my thoughts on Embra v Dragons for another thread (would be great if somebody had the time to set up the thread Notch asked for).

[asoreleftshoulder]

Really forgot Hagan was leaving us Jen. Wot en gobshoite.

Noticed Leinsterfans omitted Heaslip from the squad, at a time when he is on fire. He still needs to seal his Lions spot. He went a long way towards it on the weekend, but he really needs to show his stuff at the business-end to come to convince Gats, I reckon.

Maybe the new Irish Coach (Allah-Phookinlooyaaah), will save him for the 2 Finals and the Lions Tour? Who really knows?

The squad is announced tomorrow so he can't do any more.

[TBJ9625]

do you think Leinster will field a full strength team knowing that a) they've already qualified b) they will be focussing on the Amlin final?
I'm really hoping they dont and the O's scrape a win as will hopefully traviso.

I can dream can't I?????

[Jenifer McLadyboy]

Leinster Squad Update...
29 April 2013 13:54pm
By Editor


The Leinster squad trained in UCD on Monday afternoon ahead of Friday night's clash against the Ospreys in the RDS (KO: 7.45pm) in what is the final round of matches in the RaboDirect PRO12 before the play-offs...

There were a number of injuries arising from the squad in the Amlin Challenge Cup semi final victory at the weekend with man of the match Jamie Heaslip receiving several stitches to a right leg wound which is expected to limit his on-field preparations this week.

Cian Healy (knee) and Jonathan Sexton (dead leg) were substituted in the second half of Saturday's game as precautions with both players able to train today. Wing forward Kevin McLaughlin broke his nose during the first half of the game but was able to return to action after treatment.

The Leinster management are optimistic that Gordon D'Arcy and Sean O'Brien - who were both ruled out of the Biarritz game through calf injuries - will be available for selection this week.

Brendan Macken will return to full training this week after his broken hand.

The Leinster 'A' team booked their place in the British & Irish Cup final next month, though the victory over Munster in Dooradoyle on Friday night came at a cost with Tom Denton (pulled hamstring) and Ben Marshall (shoulder) suffering injuries in a game which also saw former CBS Naas centre Adam Byrne make his return to Leinster action, now fully recovered from his broken ankle sustained earlier this year.

The team to face the Ospreys will be announced at midday on Thursday.

[21st Century Schizoid Man]

Ospreys - believe pleeeeese !

[SecretFly]

do you think Leinster will field a full strength team knowing that a) they've already qualified b) they will be focussing on the Amlin final?
I'm really hoping they dont and the O's scrape a win as will hopefully traviso.

I can dream can't I?????

If they're thinking professionally, you might expect Leinster to rotate to keep people fresh in readiness for the other games coming later. BUT............Ospreys is a wound that probably requires healing in a psychological sense. I think the players, the team management and the fans want to get one over Ospreys. It still might not happen but I think they'll be choosing players to win this one.

[Gibson]

Ah, here. Glad the thread is going down well.

It would be good if we had a 'Rabo Last Day - Permutations Thread' (which will doubtless be updated frantically on the last day) with all of the different possibilities depending on what the top 5 teams will do but I don't have time to put it up in a meaningful way at the moment. I will if I have time later and can find the analysis ready cooked elsewhere for me to just load up. Honest.

Will keep this as 'Ospreys Huge Victory Giving Glasgow A Home Semi' thread for now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koC04cuCc3E

Love you Georgie.

[George Carlin]

Ah, here. Glad the thread is going down well.

It would be good if we had a 'Rabo Last Day - Permutations Thread' (which will doubtless be updated frantically on the last day) with all of the different possibilities depending on what the top 5 teams will do but I don't have time to put it up in a meaningful way at the moment. I will if I have time later and can find the analysis ready cooked elsewhere for me to just load up. Honest.

Will keep this as 'Ospreys Huge Victory Giving Glasgow A Home Semi' thread for now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koC04cuCc3E

Love you Georgie.

[George Carlin]

OP updated. How in the name of Oprah do we get to be refereed by Clownshoes Clancy again whilst you get the guv'nor Nigel "this isn't football, you know" Owens. Tis a mystery wrapped in a crotch scratching conundrum.

[Notch]

You wouldn't include Williams????

Impact player. Just rotation really, Henderson has been mighty impressive this season too.

Actually Ulster team looks set to be named;

Ulster: Jared Payne, Andrew Trimble, Darren Cave, Stuart Olding, Tommy Bowe, Ruan Pienaar, Paul Marshall, Callum Black, Rory Best, John Afoa, Johann Muller, Dan Tuohy, Iain Henderson, Chris Henry, Robbie Diack. Replacements: TBD

I hope Paddy Jackson isn't carrying a knock

Obviously the Cardiff team is PACKED WITH LIONS so it'll be a real moral victory for us if we can just keep the score down.

[glamorganalun]

It will be interesting to see what commitment the Lions players will put in for the final game of the season and the play off's, will they be afraid of getting an injury? The same issue may affect the English play off's, we could end up with a totally different team going to Aust.

[SecretFly]

It will be interesting to see what commitment the Lions players will put in for the final game of the season and the play off's, will they be afraid of getting an injury? The same issue may affect the English play off's, we could end up with a totally different team going to Aust.

Can't speak for all sides in the Pro12 or indeed any of the sides in AP, but the Irish sides with Lions players will fight as hard, regardless of injury concerns, because there is far too much at stake not to.
Munster have still honour to restore and Pro12 is as good a place as any to keep that project going as they end the season much hotter than they started it.
Ulster are probably still annoyed by their HC exit and, with a Pro12 crown still up for grabs, Bowe won't be allowed play halfheartedly - he'll be expected to play his part in a prospective title collection.
Leinster have two competitions to think of and a pretty strict boss to obey. In the absence of HC, they really want the other two titles they are currently fighting for so the foot won't come off the gas there either.

I don't know what the Ospreys/Blues/Dragons guys will do...International always seems to be the bigger pull for them so will some of them take the foot off the gas completely? I'd assume trying to get through the rest of the games without injury is one of the best methods of picking up one though as fretting disrupts concentration. Injury is always a risk. Even first warm up game of the Lions risks injury to players- they all know that.

[Notch]

Well don't know about Munster- they just have one game away against Zebre. It's the definition of a dead rubber as neither sides league position can change. As good a time as any to rotate a few players.

For Ulster, this is when the foot needs to go on the gas not come off it! Tommy Bowe is a professional and a very passionate Ulsterman, I'm sure he'll not allow himself to lose focus. Tbh, I think it's more about Rory Best and how he responds to his non-selection. Hopefully with a few big performances.

[SecretFly]

Well don't know about Munster- they just have one game away against Zebre. It's the definition of a dead rubber as neither sides league position can change. As good a time as any to rotate a few players.

For Ulster, this is when the foot needs to go on the gas not come off it! Tommy Bowe is a professional and a very passionate Ulsterman, I'm sure he'll not allow himself to lose focus. Tbh, I think it's more about Rory Best and how he responds to his non-selection. Hopefully with a few big performances.

Similar to what Rob Andrew said today...if I was Rory I wouldn't get too downhearted. Just because you're not on the plane going out doesn't mean you're not on the plane coming home. Patience

Munster v Zebre. Dead rubber yes.... Zebre an increasingly tougher little nut to crack. No, Munster don't want any embarrassments after the more positive end of year. They'll need to play against Zebre.

[Golden]

Is Paddy Wallace out for the rest of the season? What kind of injury is it?

Wonder what the odds are of Hartley picking up a citing before the Lions and Best taking his rightful place

[George Carlin]

That's a good point Golden. Not so much with injuries, but I'm assuming that if you do something untoward and get banned, then you will miss tour matches (as Alan Quinlan famously did)?

[rodders]

It will be interesting to see what commitment the Lions players will put in for the final game of the season and the play off's, will they be afraid of getting an injury? The same issue may affect the English play off's, we could end up with a totally different team going to Aust.

Can't speak for all sides in the Pro12 or indeed any of the sides in AP, but the Irish sides with Lions players will fight as hard, regardless of injury concerns, because there is far too much at stake not to.

This is always a risk but a lot of the Irish guys selected have toured before, played in RWC's etc. so I don't see it being an issue for any of them. All experienced players know that you are most susceptable to injury if you don't fully commit to contact so I don't see any of tehm holding back or being wrapped in cotton wool.

The likes of BOD, POC, Bowe, Kearney etc. will be aiming for test places and are just as likely to get injured in the tour games so they know the craic.

If anyone may be affacted it would be the likes of Murray, Healy, Sexton who are experiencing this for the first time.

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

Well don't know about Munster- they just have one game away against Zebre. It's the definition of a dead rubber as neither sides league position can change. As good a time as any to rotate a few players.

For Ulster, this is when the foot needs to go on the gas not come off it! Tommy Bowe is a professional and a very passionate Ulsterman, I'm sure he'll not allow himself to lose focus. Tbh, I think it's more about Rory Best and how he responds to his non-selection. Hopefully with a few big performances.

Is this a chance for Zebre to get their first win against a Munster A side at home????

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

15: Rob Kearney
14: Andrew Conway
13: Fergus McFadden
12: Ian Madigan
11: Isa Nacewa
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Isaac Boss
1: Jack McGrath
2: Sean Cronin
3: Jamie Hagan
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Quinn Roux
6: Rhys Ruddock
7: Shane Jennings
8: Sean O'Brien
REPLACEMENTS:
16: Richardt Strauss
17: Cian Healy
18: Michael Bent
19: Devin Toner
20: Dominic Ryan
21: John Cooney
22: Andrew Goodman
23: Brian O'Driscoll

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

Big risk in the front row I think if the O's bring the heat like they have before at scrum time. At least we have got Roux and Cullen in the second row as our best scrummagers.

Interesting that Darcy is out again....

Kevin McLaughlin.....?

[pete (buachaill on eirne)]

15: Rob Kearney
14: Andrew Conway
13: Fergus McFadden
12: Ian Madigan
11: Isa Nacewa
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Isaac Boss
1: Jack McGrath
2: Sean Cronin
3: Jamie Hagan
4: Leo Cullen CAPTAIN
5: Quinn Roux
6: Rhys Ruddock
7: Shane Jennings
8: Sean O'Brien

REPLACEMENTS:

16: Richardt Strauss
17: Cian Healy
18: Michael Bent
19: Devin Toner
20: Dominic Ryan
21: John Cooney
22: Andrew Goodman
23: Brian O'Driscoll

Looks neater.........

[LeinsterFan4life]

Plenty of players rested. Not to confident now... Could be an away semi yet.

[Jenifer McLadyboy]

Big risk in the front row I think if the O's bring the heat like they have before at scrum time. At least we have got Roux and Cullen in the second row as our best scrummagers.

Interesting that Darcy is out again....

Kevin McLaughlin.....?

Broken nose

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