Le Tour 2013

First topic message reminder :

It's nearly time for the 100th edition of the Tour de France so where is everyones money for the biggest race of the lot?

Yellow - Chris Froome. If he can stay upright then I only really see Contador as the real competition.

Green - Sagan. Would love to back Cav, but Sagan is a freak.

White - Teejay. Not really sure on this one, was a toss up between him and Quintana.

Polka dot - Rodriguez. Total guess. Could be anyone.

Team - I'll go with Sky but with no real confidence.

djlovesyou wrote:

Olly wrote:Is it concievable that Sagan could win the green jersey without winning a stage?!  

Happens a lot. Sean Kelly did it 1989, Zabel did it twice in his 6 wins and Hushovds two Green Jerseys have come without him winning a stage.

pretty sure Hushovd won at least one stage in 2009? Green Jersey has never really been about the best "pure" sprinter (even though it gives them more of a chance than on the Giro you'd say), it rewards consistency and those able to pick up points on the tougher stages. TBH Sagan has the points jersey nailed on in pretty much any tour he competes in you'd say, even more so with a team entirely dedicated to his cause...

Great team effort by Cannondale today. Making sure the likes of Cavendish could not follow the peloton during more than 100km to perfectly lauch Sagan. Roll on the mountains but it has been quite enjoyable so far with all stages different from each other so far.

What a stage this is shaping up to be. Quintana up the road

Can't see Quintana getting much of a lead. Rolland is on his way now. Main bunch will wait for main attack a few km's out which should be devastating with Froome n Contador at the heart of it. They could cut into a leader's minute's lead in a heartbeat by the end.

Yeah Quintana is descending like Bambi on ice

Impressed by Kennaugh for Sky. Could be the next brit tour contender

Exactly as predicted. Froome n Contador in control here.

Hoping that Froome doesnt just walk this tour, needs competition

Well Contador said he wasn't in top form but he really really isn't. When Valverde is beating him you know he's struggling.

Looking like Froome all the way.

will be a boring tour if froome continues like this. yeah, you know contador is not right when ten dam strolls past him. worrying for the gc this domination, i mean even porte is the main challenger and he's at sky too.

Think Quintana will be a challenger. Not sure why Movistar sent him up the road so early, still fancy him to do something special.

Contador just looks in dreadful form. Such a shame

Basically Froome taking the yellow jersey all the way is very likely. Quintana holding onto the young jersey is pretty much done n dusted seeing as we're going into the mountains. Sagan in the green to paris is more than likely. Only the polka dot jersey is on the line really. agree? Disappointed in the outcome of today really, credit to froome as it was a superb display of his ability with no1 holding him back but the quality of the competition for the pinnacle of cycling is embarrasing. I mean the first real stage and froome has blown everyone out the water. Not great, especially with two weeks left. Yes, he could crash out but it's unlikely. Where's Nibali when you need him, thoughts?

John wrote:Basically Froome taking the yellow jersey all the way is very likely. Quintana holding onto the young jersey is pretty much done n dusted seeing as we're going into the mountains. Sagan in the green to paris is more than likely. Only the polka dot jersey is on the line really. agree? Disappointed in the outcome of today really, credit to froome as it was a superb display of his ability with no1 holding him back but the quality of the competition for the pinnacle of cycling is embarrasing. I mean the first real stage and froome has blown everyone out the water. Not great, especially with two weeks left. Yes, he could crash out but it's unlikely. Where's Nibali when you need him, thoughts?

Embarrassing?

For you, or for them?

Nibali couldn't have lived with today either, he's just not that good.

Nibali is good and could have gone after Froome but history shows that the giro is not a good preparation for the TDF so not relevant anyway.
As for Contador, dont write him off completely, he can still provide us with a great stage win as he did in last year vuelta...

embarrasing for them not to be able to even remotely challenge froome.....at this level??? Look, I'm delighted for froome but i wanted to really see a great, close and competitive GC fight this year, it could still happen but after todays events it looks unlikely. yeah , i dont think nibali has the same explosion as froome but he would of been closer in my opinion, he is a quality rider and he's proven that. Just hope contador can ride himself into some kind of form along with a few others.

John wrote:embarrasing for them not to be able to even remotely challenge froome.....at this level???.

All those guys are on Twitter.

You ought to tell them how big an embarrassment they are. Right after they've finished another MTF might be a good time.

Nibali wouldn't have lived with Froome today, only an on form Contador/Schleck would have done in my mind.

Guess Contador was right when he was saying he was out of form. Should be in form for the Alps, but it'll be all over by barring a disaster on Froome's part.

Quite fancy Quintana to be Froome's closest challenger in the mountains actually.

Hard to blame the competition for not following Froome considering the pace he was going at: only Laiseka and Armstrong (both in 2001) have climbed Ax-3-Domaines faster. Even though it's a lot earlier in the race than they usually climb it, there's some scepticism about that going around.

Lowlandbrit - I hadn't looked at the absolute times compared to previous years. In a sense that's quite worrying, given the boost that a lot of previous riders have had to achieve their times. I can only hope that growing up and spending much of his life living at altitude (I assume given his heritage) has given him a better oxygen carrying capacity than most riders could naturally achieve.

Big wrote:Lowlandbrit - I hadn't looked at the absolute times compared to previous years.  In a sense that's quite worrying, given the boost that a lot of previous riders have had to achieve their times.  I can only hope that growing up and spending much of his life living at altitude (I assume given his heritage) has given him a better oxygen carrying capacity than most riders could naturally achieve.

Here's a list of times if anyone's interested; 7 people faster in 2010 than the second best this year (Porte) suggests the 'competition wasn't great' theory has at least some merit. If you're being optimistic you could say maybe technology/training has finally 'caught up' to where they were back then.

You could say technology and training have caught up, but I'd raise my eyebrows I'm afraid. It's a big performance gap to close, and struggling to see how it could realistically be achieved in the time frame and without any major step changes in the technology used.

I'd wait to see what the rest of the times on the climbs are like before we start getting into the Sky must be dopers debate

I don't think there can be any doubt that technology will play a huge part. Everything is so much more advanced these days

2010 was ridden very differently from yesterday.

SKY rode a fast steady pace until Froome went which was a pretty long way up the climb, 2010 saw a lot of little attacks and cat and mouse stuff from quite a long way to the top of the climb. Contador and Schleck were by far the strongest in that race and they still finished behind Sanchez and Menchov, and in a group with a bunch of other people (including Gesink, who was dropped early in the climb when the pace was high) they could have gapped had they not been involved in what was essentially another race.

Ridiculous start to the stage today. Sky obviously didnt take their EPO overnight as they have been decimated already, and Froome seems to have burnt out some of his team (Lopez) and some have crashed (Kennaugh)

Sky bizarrely seem intent on chasing every breakaway and have lost all their riders bar Froome and Porte. Awful tactics

I think it'll settle down after this climb and there will be a general regrouping.

Well, if they're on something they at least have the decency to make it look like they're real people who suffer some consequences from putting in an effort like that.

Well I wasn't expecting this. All sky team dropped, froome on his own. Could be interesting this stage

This is looking like a cracking stage. A combination of bad luck and tiredness/poor form has done for Sky

Movistar looking ridiculously strong

Somewhat relieved in a way that there appears to be some tiredness following yesterday. For the record, I'm wasn't trying to suggest Sky have a team wide doping programme or anything like that. It is only Froome that performed at an physiologically challenging level (I think that climb was about 5-6% above the power output of Contador at his best a couple of years back). I did point out in my first comment that I hope it is his heritage coming from a high altitude country - bit like all the Kenyan and Ethiopean long distance runners.

The stage has settled down a bit now with Movistar in control.

Expect fireworks on the final climb. Froome is gonna have to ride wheels you feel

Big wrote: (I think that climb was about 5-6% above the power output of Contador at his best a couple of years back).    

I also pointed out that 2010 was ridden very differently to yesterday. Contador, at one point, stopped almost completely still in his cat and mouse game with Andy Schleck. It's not really a shock that they rode quite a lot slower.

Porte is now 4 minutes behind. Movistar setting up a good pace but this is not going to scare froome am afraid. Suprised valverde or quintana are not accelerating to try to break this pace.

djlovesyou wrote:

Big wrote: (I think that climb was about 5-6% above the power output of Contador at his best a couple of years back).    

I also pointed out that 2010 was ridden very differently to yesterday. Contador, at one point, stopped almost completely still in his cat and mouse game with Andy Schleck. It's not really a shock that they rode quite a lot slower.

But I'm not just talking about the same climb in 2010. I'm talking about his general sustained power output over a climb - which I understand is up to about 5.8 W/kg for Contador at his best over a decent length climb (comparable to Schleck and perhaps surprisingly Wiggins), as opposed to Froome who was apparently producing between 6.2 and 6.4 on average yesterday.

Kreuziger wanted to attack but seems that contador didnt allow him. Quintana attacking though but its not steep enough for him to make a good difference.

Good to see Dan Martin continuing his good form this season

Can't believe Contador/Valverde haven't attacked more today. Gotta go down as a huge opportunity missed surely

Olly wrote:Can't believe Contador/Valverde haven't attacked more today. Gotta go down as a huge opportunity missed surely

Suspect they didnt have the legs for it. Froome should have been tested more though.

Well I can't believe Quintana hasn't had a proper go.

Really must be a big opportunity missed. Sky (probably) won't crumble like this again

Brilliance from Dan Martin. What a season that young man is having

Big wrote:

But I'm not just talking about the same climb in 2010.  I'm talking about his general sustained power output over a climb - which I understand is up to about 5.8 W/kg for Contador at his best over a decent length climb (comparable to Schleck and perhaps surprisingly Wiggins), as opposed to Froome who was apparently producing between 6.2 and 6.4 on average yesterday.

Not sure where you get 5.8 w/kg for Contador at his best (made up?).

At his dominant best he could be up nearer 7 w/kg on a shorter climb (Verbier 2009 for example.) He would also be well over 6 on climbs much longer than yesterday's effort. Something like 6.6 up the Angliru, which is crazy stuff.

6.2 w/kg up yesterday's climb isn't really that outlandish. Froome is generally around 5.8, 5.9 for the longer climbs which, in historical terms, is pretty ordinary and no indication of doping. 6.2 up a short climb is nothing special.

Despite Froome relative quiet day, team Sky has just lost Vasil kiryienka who finished too late (2 minutes behind the gruppetto).

whocares wrote:Despite Froome relative quiet day, team Sky has just lost Vasil kiryienka who finished too late (2 minutes behind the gruppetto).

Wow. That's shocking from Kiryienka

Has to be a reason for that. I imagine he is sick.

Olly wrote:

whocares wrote:Despite Froome relative quiet day, team Sky has just lost Vasil kiryienka who finished too late (2 minutes behind the gruppetto).

Wow. That's shocking from Kiryienka

Not totally familiar with the rules... Does this mean he is excluded from the rest of the tour?

Lumbering_Jack wrote:

Olly wrote:

whocares wrote:Despite Froome relative quiet day, team Sky has just lost Vasil kiryienka who finished too late (2 minutes behind the gruppetto).

Wow. That's shocking from Kiryienka

Not totally familiar with the rules... Does this mean he is excluded from the rest of the tour?

Yes it does Jack. Anyone who doesn't finish within the time limit is excluded from the Tour

Olly, why did sky fall to pieces today then? Because of the big effort yesterday?

Lumbering_Jack wrote:Olly, why did sky fall to pieces today then? Because of the big effort yesterday?

I think that is part of the reason Jack yes.

Also I think they got their tactics wrong today. Seemed to want to chase every break early, setting a ridiculous pace.

Also this Sky team isn't as strong as last years really. Movistar and Saxo Bank are both stronger squads really.

They also had a bit of bad luck with Kennaugh crashing early.

But there can be no doubt yesterday's efforts certainly caught up with them today as well

I thought after Froomes fantastic performance yesterday it was going to be a little predictable and boring. Although I want Froome to win it would be nice to see it being competitive.

How many feet of climbing was today?

There was something definitely wrong with Kiriyenka today though.

He's not getting dropped by Kittel on the climbs, even whilst tired.

Maybe he had a crash at some point then DJ?

It'll be competitive Jack, but Contador needs to find some legs/Movistar need to let Quintana really go for it