Socal's finals breakdown and where are we now in the Men's game

First off, congratulations to Murray and his many fans, well done and he deserved it all the way thru. He delivered an absolutely masterclass on the first serve of dialing up first serves when he needed them. Murray played a cleaner match and served better, not to mention he played the big points and the end of sets so much better than Novak. As I said for the last couple of years, Murray and Novak are going to have a helluva fight for supremacy in the rankings each and every year. Andy's partnership with Lendl has flowered in to a championship pairing with promises of so much more. He is the best grass court player in the world right now and he should kick on to further glory in the coming months and years. If Nadal is healthy, Murray and Djokovic will be there, and we will have 3 truly exceptional talents fighting it out and who knows maybe JMDP can get in the mix.

As for Novak this is a bitter loss as he saved his worst serving performance in terms of first serve percentage for the finals and routinely choked at the end of sets he could have won. He should have won both the second and third set except for the fact that Murray upped his level at the end of sets and Novak could not match him. For the last two matches of this tournament his typically rock solid and explosive backhand has given up errors at an alarming rate. His shot selection and falling in love with the drop shot in the third set was also bizarre. In the longterm I think this is a bad loss but Novak is an experienced pro and will be back playing better and lifting a big trophy soon. I mean Novak had the more draining semi, played Murray in a road match, and faced a Murray who delivered one of the great clutch serving performances of his career despite the breaks of serve. In the longterm he has been to the slam semi of every for the last 4 years, and I always knew he was going to have a battle on his hands to retain number 1 and win slams with Murray and Nadal around.

Frankly, I am going to take a second here to express my feelings of vindication even in this disappointing loss. For years even many murray fans argued with me when I would quote "big up" Murray. Why it was argued that crass Djokovic fan boy socal would just pump Murray in order to inflate Djokovic's accomplishments. I mean the more logical answer that socal, astute tennis analyst that he is spotted greatness early in both these fine players. I categorized Murray as a great in waiting and frankly I would already give him the mythical great title. Two slams doesn't get you there but it can be a springboard with other accomplishments. When I placed Murray in the top 10 baseliners of all times the peanut gallery unleashed their pitchforks and torches like I was Nosferatu. But as usual I am proven right again for giving Murray and Djokovic high marks early in the game. Maybe now some you who claimed I was big upping Murray, instead of just accurately portraying my view of his quality, to pump up Djokovic should reexamine your conclusions.

Here's how I see things.

Andy is now a better game manager than Novak. Not massively, but definitely better. I think Lendl has had a huge effect in helping him to get a job done.

Novak has regressed somewhat in that regard. He gets frustrated too easily and I think nerves are weighing heavier on him than they have in the past.

Andy is comfortably a better grass court player than Novak. Two matches, 5 sets to Andy, none to Novak.

It's hard courts from here on in though, so that may bring an upturn in Novak's fortunes.

Until he gets his clay game sorted though, I don't see Andy getting to number 1. He loses too many points on his rivals in that stretch.

Overall, I think the days of one dominant player on the tour are gone. Andy's clay limitations, Rafa's injury limitations, Novak's consistency limitations and, hopefully, a top level Del Potro all combine to give a period where the top titles are more evenly split and year end #1 will be decided very late in the year.

Federer will play his part too but at this stage of his career, I see him as a guy who knocks a big name out rather than regularly claiming the big titles himself.

A lot of this is simply the hunter becoming the hunted...it's happened to them all...the guy chasing always has that little bit more impetus and desire to cross the finishing line. The guy at the top is there to be shot at and carries the weight of assured winning. Novak was showing signs of carrying the pressure yesterday, he simply wasn't his usual self at crunch moment, maybe affected by the DP semi but clearly was rattled early on. Murray showed dogged determination, desire for the trophy and no little skill carried on the backs of 20,000 almost rabid fans.

I still think Novak is the better player, he was the one showing much greater variety and think his game has actually developed further but it was a case of not delivering fully on the day. With this win the expectation levels will creep up and Murray himself will start to move into "hunted" territory, he'll start to become the guy they all want to shoot down...just like Roger and Rafa before him. Otherwise agree with HMM closing remarks too. The game has a transitional new order feel to it emerging...which is good for tennis. USO will be very interesting.

My one caveat to Lydian's "hunted" analysis is that a Brit trying to be the first to win Wimbledon since Fred Perry has his own hothouse feel, something that Murray has now shed most emphatically.
 
I think Murray will now be able to enjoy a freedom of spirit with results that are very difficult to predict - if a "hunted" pressure starts to build it may take a lot longer to settle in and affect Murray than it would with another player who has not faced such enormous pressure getting over that first hurdle.  It was only after the win that it dawned on me what a huge step up winning Wimbledon is from the USO (something that Lindsay Davenport talked about - even as a US citizen).  Only this morning our receptionist was talking about Wimbledon and when I mentioned that this did seem to be a step up from his USO win I was met with a blank face - she did not even know that the USO existed let alone that he had won it.  

Now everybody from his home country knows he is the real deal, he truly can look everyone in the eye and not be asked some dumb "but...?" question, whether he be with ignoramus, hater, or tennis buff.  I'm looking forward to seeing what effect that has.

Good assessment socal, and you were one of the very few non Murray fans who a couple of years ago agreed that Murray would emerge into a multi slam winning top, top player.

I agree with Murdoch about the no.1 spot though. Murray would have to have a phenomenal grass and hard court season to make up for his lack of points on the clay, and I don't personally see it happening. Novak is good on all surfaces and I see him being number one for a long time. Murray has never even reached a clay final remember.

I'm still in a bit of disbelief about yesterday. I thought Murray could win, but in straights against a champion like Novak? Wow. I don't think 3-0 quite does it justice, because the end of each set was like a match of its own. All the stats show a dominant win, but the truth as ever is that there were huge points at the end of each set and Murray stepped up and delivered on them. Novak didn't.

I would love to say "Murray is the man at the top of tennis now" but he isn't. Novak is. They've won the same amount of slams this year and Novak has been more consistent overall. There will no doubt be those who think his star is waning, but it isn't. He lost a match. He's still the man to beat.

Murray's talent and potential have been there for all to see for many years. But it's fair to say (and even he would admit) that until the last year, maybe a bit longer, he's not been at the level needed to win slams.
Firstly he needed to get to the same physical level as the others.
Then he needed to overcome the mental demons that held him back.

So many times people have thought/said that if he could just get over the on-court self-criticism that so often affected him, he could be a slam winner. At the time there was no way of knowing for sure whether he would do that or whether it would remain potential unfulfilled.

Whether it's Lendl's influence, or a later maturity, or a combination of both - it's probably the latter, although many Murray followers, including myself said at the time that bringing Lendl in was a very hopeful sign. It's paid off.

As for Djoko - it wasn't that long ago that he went into the FO with a chance of holding all 4 slams and there was talk a 2012 calendar slam (because who could stop him?). There was talk of him catching Rafa and maybe even Fed in the slam total. As it's turned out, he's only won 1 slam since then. More will probably follow, but it's not a given by any means. I should think that Djoko has a realistic view about this, but the last 16 months have shown everyone that winning 10, 11, 12 slams is not actually the breeze that some were starting to intimate that it was.
Nor is it required to become one of the greats of the game.

Good post socal.

First up if I were a Novak fan I'd be puzzling what has happened to him since this year's Australian Open. I have watched him lose matches (Dimitrov) that I expected him to win and throw away winning positions in key matches (Nadal in the French Open) and losing his competitive edge at key points. It strikes me as a mental issue and he needs to address that to get back on track.

As for Andy Murray he must maintain his focus and consistency for the remainder of the year if he wants to have a serious crack at the No.1 spot. For that to happen I believe four things need to happen. First of all he needs to retain the US Open, have a real crack at winning the WTF, winning the Australian Open and finally having a much stronger clay court season. If he can do all that then come the start of the next grass court season that No.1 spot could be his. I am not overly-fussed about the ranking and would sooner have slam wins but realise it is a very big box to tick.

I won't rule out Rafael Nadal either as, with all his troubles, he is being starved of the success. If he can refind confidence in his fitness he will be ravenous for those big wins.

Roger Federer can play a supporting role but don't see him doing any more than that now as age has caught up with him. Still capable but less consistently.

There is definitely an opportunity for the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro to step up and become a real slam contender again along with the likes of Tsonga and Berdych and perhaps further emergence from youngsters like Janowicz and Dimitrov.

Andy Murray - Wimbledon Champion. There, I've said it. Don't think Djoko was quite on top of his game in either the semi or the final, although this should not detract from great performances from del Potty and Wimbledon champion Murray (whoops, said it again).
  Agree that Andy's clay court record hinders his hunt for the number one position. Rafa has nothing to defend for months so could close on Nole and Andy. With Rafa's fitness always a worry and Fed gradually fading, the stage is set for Djoko and Murray to dominate for two or three years.
  Are there any other challengers? I would put forward del Potro but I'm always concerned about this fitness. Janowicz could be a threat but is his all-round game good enough, yet? Ferrer - the perpetual Duracell Bunny - will run and scrap for ever but I don't see him winning a late-career Slam.

PS - posted this before CC's good remarks above. Very much agree with his points.

I don't think we should rule out Andy having a good enough Clay court season to deliver, say the 2000 points he needs and actually think that he always subconsciously targeted Wimbledon and with this won might now relax more on Clay

I disagree that Novak is a better player in terms of skills and there is no way he has more variety. Unless we count drop shotting ever other point!!

Variety is a subtle thing that catches your opponent by surprise and hence that means some shots are not played very often and significant points are played with disguise

Here Andy is the better player. Yesterday they were busy having multi rallies and then from nowhere Andy sent a drop shot, that kind of shocked everyone watching never mind Novak who didn't move - there was no hint of it whatsoever, it was an amazing moment

It is absolutely fantastic to be able to say 'The Wimbledon Champion, Andy Murray' isn't it?  

It will be interesting to see how Novak responds from here - I wondered how he would bounce back from the semi final defeat at RG - it was such a bruising match.  He has to, you feel, really regroup before USO and rediscover his love of outlasting his opponent - it's beginning to look at some stages of big matches as if he is struggling to find that little bit of extra fire to take him through the pain.

As for Murray, this is so huge - only a Brit can truly feel how huge this victory is - the glass ceiling has been shattered, I expect Murray to float into the USO on wafts of enormous self confidence and with the hunger to defend his title.

Not sure about Nadal - I expect there might be an announcement in the next week, now that Wimbledon is over, either that the knees are good to go this summer or there are concerns.  The gods may be with Fed one last time before he retires, but I don't think he has the form or the fitness to be a threat at Flushing Meadows.

Looking forward, very much, to seeing how Delpo's campaign goes though!

The attention level now from sponsors and media is going to be very different. Suddenly the attention is all from people like David Cameron and the Queen, that is a different level indeed. I wonder how many balls he will hit this week, if any.

Well the game is in transition. Not only is it difficult getting used to Andy Murray Wimbledon champion, but also Roger Federer World No.5! Also Nadal you wonder how much time he has left in the game. It was refreshing to Delpo comeback to form and I do hope he is a permanent fixture at the back end of Slams now. Tsonga I was hoping would make his march, but seems to have struggle and was unlucky with his injury.

I want to someone break away from that 'future' mould and start to challenge the tennis hierachy. Janowicz or Dimitrov or both. It would be good for the game. Tomic might just start to make a push at long last.

Last word to Djokovic and Murray. I think they will be amongst the Slams for the next 2-3 years.

Djokovic seems not to have made that 2011 dominance stick, which is odd because during that time Federer has declined & Nadal's been injured most of the time. Why's he now finding guys like JMDP a serious threat on grass when he duffed Nadal up badly in 2011?

Sure, he's #1 by a mile and a very good player, but at the biggest moments he's finding it harder. I did say in 2012 that the biggest difference was that the knife-edge moments that all fell his way in 2011 now weren't - and that's not much of a difference - and I stand by that. It could be argued similarly at the French, where only a very daft hit on the net (probably) cost him the match. So by that argument he's the same as 2011, just not getting the lucky breaks (his return against Federer would fly out this year).

It wasn't long ago there was talk of the emergence of Djokovic 3.0 (God I hate that expression). I always thought that unfounded, and it looks so.

His biggest bonus is the lack of breakthrough talent to replace Federer and - maybe - Nadal.

2012 was a year in contrast for Djokovic. Superhuman at AO. Loses to Nadal at FO, loses to Federer at Wimbledon and Murray at the US Open. Just seemed a massive shift in momentum and I think that mini blip at Monte Carlo in 2012 (I think) has really set him back a bit.

I think on balance, as things stand, Novak is still the world's best player.

Any tournament and any surface, he has a very good chance of winning.

I don't think he is likely to be a dominant number 1 though. He maintains his position by regularly going deep into tournaments rather than racking up title after title.

This year is a good example. He's 2nd in YTD the rankings but has only actually won 3 titles. Which is still good, it's just not dominant.

bb

I get what you are saying about Djokovic - 2011 was his annus mirabilis, with the winning streak through to RG. Success breeds confidence, and he was so in the zone for most of the year (at least until after the USO, when fatigue caught up with him) that he could win any match at any time. I don't think it was really about luck, more about inherent self-belief, although I agree that the USO serve return would have missed this year.

Last year he was still the best player on the tour, but didn't reach the same levels of success, and the aura of invincibility started to slip, both undermining his self-belief a little and giving his opponents greater hope. This year he's at about the same level as 2012, which I suspect is his true level - winning some of the major events and consistently reaching the later stages, but not with the same overwhelming dominance as he showed in 2011 and as Federer showed in the mid 00s. Enough to (probably) retain the #1 position because his opponents all beat each other, but not quite the stuff of legend.

I do though think some reports of his demise have been greatly exagerated - if I had to stick a fiver on someone to win the USO, I'd still go with Djoko ahead of Murray (and still want to see a Federer resurgence, although I think that's now becoming a case of hope rather than expectation).

Danny_1982 wrote:Good assessment socal, and you were one of the very few non Murray fans who a couple of years ago agreed that Murray would emerge into a multi slam winning top, top player.

I agree with Murdoch about the no.1 spot though. Murray would have to have a phenomenal grass and hard court season to make up for his lack of points on the clay, and I don't personally see it happening. Novak is good on all surfaces and I see him being number one for a long time. Murray has never even reached a clay final remember.

I'm still in a bit of disbelief about yesterday. I thought Murray could win, but in straights against a champion like Novak? Wow. I don't think 3-0 quite does it justice, because the end of each set was like a match of its own. All the stats show a dominant win, but the truth as ever is that there were huge points at the end of each set and Murray stepped up and delivered on them. Novak didn't.

I would love to say "Murray is the man at the top of tennis now" but he isn't. Novak is. They've won the same amount of slams this year and Novak has been more consistent overall. There will no doubt be those who think his star is waning, but it isn't. He lost a match. He's still the man to beat.

Good post Danny, people are going to make a lot of this win and it was monumental. But what it tells us about the tour is that there are number of greats that can win any big trophy and nothing much has changed. As a djokovic fan I was always realistic at how hard it would be to maintain #1. Murray is playing great tennis and Nadal is right there as well if he can maintain his health for any extended period of time. This match doesn't change much, we knew Murray was really good on grass and that this was Novak's weakest surface. We know that Murray/Djoko/ and Nadal are  cut above and they have each taken a slam this season. Novak still has a good lead at #1 and has halved Nadal's lead in the points race with his performance at wimbedlon. People can take a lot out of this match but they should remember that prior to this match murray lost the last 3 matches in the rivalry and that there will be ups and downs in future months for both guys, I still think Novak is the better player.

banbrotam wrote:I don't think we should rule out Andy having a good enough Clay court season to deliver, say the 2000 points he needs and actually think that he always subconsciously targeted Wimbledon and with this won might now relax more on Clay

I disagree that Novak is a better player in terms of skills and there is no way he has more variety. Unless we count drop shotting ever other point!!

Variety is a subtle thing that catches your opponent by surprise and hence that means some shots are not played very often and significant points are played with disguise

Here Andy is the better player. Yesterday they were busy having multi rallies and then from nowhere Andy sent a drop shot, that kind of shocked everyone watching never mind Novak who didn't move - there was no hint of it whatsoever, it was an amazing moment

Never doubted he is a great player but saying Andy is the better player is a bit much since he has not in my recollection ever finished a year ranked above Djokovic and just recently lost the last 3 matches they have played. The margins are thin one way or the other. I was one of the few who tagged Murray as a great early and despite the loss I feel a sense of vindication as it was always portrayed as Socal big upping murray to pump djokovic, when in actuality I just honestly analyzed Murray as a great talent.

dummy half

Yes, I broadly agree with all that. I also make him strong favourite for the US, with the proviso that he does not acquire further baggage. If he were to suffer a silly loss in Toronto or Cincinnatti who knows whether he'd revert a little to the guy we used to see, who was always finding reasons to fail? I don't mean that as extremely as it reads, it's just that pre-2011 he was genuinely always ready to lose, then he stopped it, now he seems to be letting some of that garbage creep back in.

Maybe it's finding that sustaining great years isn't so easy, or acquiring pressure of aspiring to true great level, like the Slam he was going for in 2012 or career Slam this year.

Yeah I'm not sure I'd go as far to say categorically that Murray is a better player now. Historically Novak has achieved more, but even when you just take into account this season they have a slam each, beating the other one in the final.

Novak is undoubtably a better clay court player and I think based on their two matches we can say Murray has the edge on grass. On a slow hard court I'd favour Novak, on a medium- fast hard court I'd favour Murray.

But Novak has been more consistent week in week out, and barely ever loses to anyone outside the top guys. So he is the more consistent of the two. Plus, when you have the number 1 next to your name in my book it's because you deserve it.

They are very evenly matched, but there's a ranking system for a reason and that system shows Novak is the best player around right now.

I think we will find out a lot more about the current picture of today's tennis when the USO is done and dusted. Going into wimbeldon Nadal had a 2000 point lead in the points race, now he has about an 800 point advantage. Novak now also holds a 1200 point advantage on Murray. Therefore he is in pole position to recapture the year end #1. No more clay court events left for Rafa and we know Nadal has never played well or hardly ever played the year end indoor swing, which Djokovic excels at. Murray I would say is in a better position than Nadal for year end #1, but it looks as it will come down to whoever wins the open among them, as it should.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Good post socal.

First up if I were a Novak fan I'd be puzzling what has happened to him since this year's Australian Open. I have watched him lose matches (Dimitrov) that I expected him to win and throw away winning positions in key matches (Nadal in the French Open) and losing his competitive edge at key points. It strikes me as a mental issue and he needs to address that to get back on track.

As for Andy Murray he must maintain his focus and consistency for the remainder of the year if he wants to have a serious crack at the No.1 spot. For that to happen I believe four things need to happen. First of all he needs to retain the US Open, have a real crack at winning the WTF, winning the Australian Open and finally having a much stronger clay court season. If he can do all that then come the start of the next grass court season that No.1 spot could be his. I am not overly-fussed about the ranking and would sooner have slam wins but realise it is a very big box to tick.

I won't rule out Rafael Nadal either as, with all his troubles, he is being starved of the success. If he can refind confidence in his fitness he will be ravenous for those big wins.

Roger Federer can play a supporting role but don't see him doing any more than that now as age has caught up with him. Still capable but less consistently.

There is definitely an opportunity for the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro to step up and become a real slam contender again along with the likes of Tsonga and Berdych and perhaps further emergence from youngsters like Janowicz and Dimitrov.

Had to comeback and respond to this post very thoughtful Craig. I have the same questions regarding focus and going up and down during matches as you do about Novak. He has been in winning positions now in quite a few matches and failed to execute where in recent years he would hammer the door shut. In my mind one has to consider that he is up against very tough players and that this match was in a venue and on conditions that favored Murray. Plus Djokovic I think emotionally and mentally was a little spent after the Delpo match. Still taking nothing away from Murray. It has been quite some time that I have been touting him to battle Djokovic and Nadal for all the top honors including world #1. I think Murray will get a turn at #1 at some point and time and it is hard to predict if that will be a short or long run.

As for the other players mentioned, I do see some of the next tier guys that have been serving apprenticeship having a chance to steal a little here and there from Djoko/murray/and Nadal, only if injury knocks one or two of them out of the picture for some time. I think Berdy and Del Po have become better but I am still not convinced that they have what it takes to lift a slam again. Del Po I think will but Berdych I don't. Still I see this rivalry between Murray and Djoko as being the biggest in the game now.

Del Po isn't better. 2009 was his peak so far.

Berdych neither, he's always been able to play, always had the same shortcomings.

The Men's game is at big risk of stagnating. Djokovic / Murray was fine as a part of the menu when Federer & Nadal featured, but not as the main course. With Ferrer, Berdych and so on its like getting the same thing for every course, and just a big one to finish.

Djokovic arguably peaked in 2011. He cant be rubber-man on a court forever, once he loses just a little bit of that prodigious flexibility, or a serious injury results from keep doing those splits/slides then his game and confidence will be much more vulnerable. Similarly Andy is paying a high physical price for his brand of tennis. Look at Nadal, injuries (congenital or not) have neutered him from the force he was. All these guys are having to play so physical due to conditions...that's how they differentiate more and more now.

Yesterday's match wasn't a classic, but then I don't find Djokovic/Murray matches that interesting. I'm praying some of the new boys can make a breakthrough, the game is desperately starting to need it.

TBH, and this is probably the Elephant in the room, I think Murray is a beneficiary of the decline of Fedal.

Whatever improvements he has made, he would not have got a look in at the slams if those two were still operating at near to peak level.

Even last year, Federer, several years removed from his peak, beat Murray who's grass court game I don't think has improved since.

emancipator wrote:TBH, and this is probably the Elephant in the room, I think Murray is a beneficiary of the decline of Fedal.

Whatever improvements he has made, he would not have got a look in at the slams if those two were still operating at near to peak level.

Even last year, Federer, several years removed from his peak, beat Murray who's grass court game I don't think has improved since.

But his mentality and belief have.

@Eman... Lendl has given a lot of confidence to Murray, which should not be ignored. It will show in the next few slams.

emancipator wrote:TBH, and this is probably the Elephant in the room, I think Murray is a beneficiary of the decline of Fedal.

TBH There are so many elephants in the room I'm surprised anyone else can fit in...

I think Murray's done well partly or mostly because his own level has improved. His performance in that Wimbledon final was as good or better as Federer, Nadal and Djokovic's in 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively in winning the title.

I do think the level achieved in men's tennis in 2011 hasn't continued to improve since then, it's slightly lower now.

Well, to be honest Federer and Nadal fans would say that Murray v Djokovic doesn't compare. For you guys of course it doesn't. For me it does, I think it's a great rivalry. But then I would, wouldn't I.

And no Federer isn't 26 anymore, and Rafa has fitness issues... Would this Murray with all the steps forward he has taken have beaten a younger Federer or Nadal? Maybe not. Can't say for sure though.

But you can't dilute every slam that's won from here onwards by saying "if Fedal from 2007 were around this wouldn't have happened". Well, technically you can... But it's a bit like pining for an old partner and its pretty irrelevant.