Is Fed the Killer Quarter?

All through the clay and grass season, we had discussions about how Nadal being seeded 5 would lead to imbalanced draws.

Soon we will entering the US hard court swing and it looks very likely that Federer will be seeded 5 at all these events (I'm assuming even though he is playing the next 2 weeks that with his Olympic final points dropping and Cincy masters points to defend it will be difficult for him to get back to the top 4 before the US Open).

Federer has a great record at these events (better than Nadal and Ferrer). So does his being seeded 5 give the potential for imbalanced draws?

Personally, I would argue not. I don't think any of Djokovic, Murray or Nadal would be concerned about drawing him on hardcourt. I'm sure they'd all prefer to draw Tsonga in current form & fitness level. But otherwise, out of Federer, Berdych or Del Potro, I think Del Potro is the one they'd all prefer to see in the opposite half.

Do you agree?

It's a good point, his form is so abysmal that you might well be right.

He's #5 on merit whereas Nadal was #5 because of missed tournaments. The only argument is that it's known he has a game on this surface that is top level, the question is whether it's accessible.

I half agree.

We're all very enamoured with JMDP following Wimbledon and, if he maintains that form, he's the danger quarter. Let's remember though that consistency has not been the big man's forté for some time.

As for Federer, in BO3 I still think he's a nightmare draw. He's inconsistent nowadays but I don't think it requires a huge stretch of the imagination to picture him playing two great sets and knocking out anyone. His record in tie breaks is outstanding too which works in his favour at TMS level.

In BO5, I think his threat is greatly reduced now. I'd never rule him out but I'd always favour Novak, Andy and Rafa in those circumstances.

If you asked Djoko, Murray and Rafa they'd certainly tell you the QF oppontent they'd most want to avoid is Roger - yes, his form hasn't been anything to write home about, but he is possibly the best hard court player there has ever been, and even at 90% of his peak he's not easy to beat. Certainly Novak and Andy would start as favourites against him (need to see how Rafa performs on hard courts before making a similar comment about his level), but it wouldn't be a huge shock to see Roger take out one of them by having a good day.

It is though a good point that BB makes - Federer is ranked #5 as his true ranking, not as a result of missing events - indeed, two of those above him are there without counting points from at least one GS event (hell, Nadal is only counting 2010 points from slams, compared with over 5000 for both Andy and Novak). Just shows how popor his form has been (by federer standards) over the last 12 months.

Federer is a nightmare quarter final draw for any of the top guys. Particularly in masters when he'll have played a couple of matches before. It will be early enough for him not to be too physically drained, and late enough for him to have found the groove.

If Federer plays and moves well on a hard court he probably wins. The movement wasn't great at Wimbledon, and we'll have to see how it compares on a hard court... But as a Murray fan I'll be hoping he's in someone else's quarter for sure!

On balance, yes. He's a horrific draw for anyone - even if you beat him, he usually keeps you out on court and forces you really work for your win, unlike some other players. And as others have said, the pedigree is there; if he can access his top level, he's a threat to anyone on any given day. The top players know this, and know that he won't wilt under the pressure either (unlike, say, a Berdych).

He'll remain the horror seed for years to come, even if he slides further down the rankings.

HM Murdoch wrote:I half agree.

We're all very enamoured with JMDP following Wimbledon and, if he maintains that form, he's the danger quarter. Let's remember though that consistency has not been the big man's forté for some time.

As for Federer, in BO3 I still think he's a nightmare draw. He's inconsistent nowadays but I don't think it requires a huge stretch of the imagination to picture him playing two great sets and knocking out anyone. His record in tie breaks is outstanding too which works in his favour at TMS level.

In BO5, I think his threat is greatly reduced now. I'd never rule him out but I'd always favour Novak, Andy and Rafa in those circumstances.

I agree with HMM, Fed can never be counted out for just 1 match, its getting difficult for the old man to go produce result after result to win a tournament but on a given day he can play mercilessly and completely thrash an opponent, remember what happened to Djoko on two Cincy finals  

Yes Fed's form is pathetic but it can improve and nobody would like to face him on the quarters coz it won't be easy anyways.

Regarding Del Po, he is great when on song, but he is still struggling with fitness, we saw that in clay season, we saw that in Wimbledon as well, so I am keeping my fingers crossed   that he won't get injured again, if he does then he will be the biggest scare of all current players in any round including finals let alone quarters.

Btw sorry to say the Top seeds would prefer Berdych in the 1st round rather than say like Gulbis or Monfils in the 1st round.

"I don't think any of Djokovic, Murray or Nadal would be concerned about drawing him on hardcourt."

That's a ridiculous statement by the OP-- yes, Fed form has been off but he is showing a desire to play himself into form by adding Hamburg and Gstaad-- maybe those too tournament will show he's truly diminished with his movement and he won't be a tough out-- but I think he will work himself into some type of decent level... The others not worried though? Rewatch Fed/Djoko at Cinci last year, a tournament that Federer has basically dominated and one in which Nadal has never made it past quarters-- Federer can take any of them out there... US Open- meeting him in the quarters would be worse than meeting him in semis or even finals because at that point he would prob be gassed... Chances are he would still be fresh in the quarters. In a one off match on hard courts- unless Fed just shows over the next couple of weeks that he can't reclaim form-- Fed is a nightmare for anyone.

In fairly big news- Federer is in Hamburg and has been practicing with a new RACQUET! IT looks like he's going to experiment playing with a Blade BLX-- bigger head from Wilson... I've played with a Blade and its prob going to add some power but a little less control.

@Truffin... a separate thread on the racquet is warranted.

Looking at it, I would say I wouldnt be "scared" for Nadal, if he draws Federer in the USO, it would also be nice for them to complete their set. But yeah if Roger gets hot, considering the fact that the NY
crowd would create a extremely Pro-Fed audience should he get hot, it could definitely be a difficult match.

Lets wait and see his HC form in Montreal and Cincy, he gets hot enough, and results go his way, he might be #4... Long shot, but ut really is too early

kingraf wrote:Looking at it, I would say I wouldnt be "scared" for Nadal, if he draws Federer in the USO,

You wouldn't be scared but Nadal himself would be  , and regarding your set, Djoko will do the set over Rafa first before Rafa will do it on Fed. 

Nadal is 6-2 over Fed in Out door hard court conditions, so I dont think "scared" is the right word. Maybe cautiously optimistic? Also, I would bet Nadal to beat Federer in the US, before I would bet Nole to beat Nadal at RG to complete their sets.

kingraf wrote:Nadal is 6-2 over Fed in Out door hard court conditions, so I dont think "scared" is the right word. Maybe cautiously optimistic? Also, I would bet Nadal to beat Federer in the US, before I would bet Nole to beat Nadal at RG to complete their sets.

Federer does better on faster HCs compared to slower HCs like Miami, IW.

hence "cautiously optimistic"

kingraf wrote:Nadal is 6-2 over Fed in Out door hard court conditions, so I dont think "scared" is the right word. Maybe cautiously optimistic? Also, I would bet Nadal to beat Federer in the US, before I would bet Nole to beat Nadal at RG to complete their sets.

but Nadal rarely if ever faced Federer on the faster outdoor hard courts...   Cinci where Nadal hasn't made it past Quarters, and US Open where Federer dominated for years and Nadal couldn't make it to face him...   The meetings they had were on the slower courts where Nadal can use his defense more.    

I think your right at this point a prime Nadal against 32 year old Fed at US Open is a better bet than Nole at RG-- but I think if conditions are fast and Federer physically there-- he would give Nadal all he could handle- even now.

Considering Fed's age, yes. It's now doubly hard.

YvonneT wrote:I don't think any of Djokovic, Murray or Nadal would be concerned about drawing him on hardcourt. I'm sure they'd all prefer to draw Tsonga in current form & fitness level. But otherwise, out of Federer, Berdych or Del Potro, I think Del Potro is the one they'd all prefer to see in the opposite half.

Do you agree?

100% spot on  

It seems that Federer can't do enough to establish his pre-eminence. At almost 31 he beat Djokovic & Murray at Wimbledon, and I thought it was a nice thing to lay any ghosts for once and for all.

But then one or two have tried to argue that as he won, this was, by definition, still peak Federer. Quite wrong, but it's been said.

In some ways his awful year so far would be of extra benefit should he grab another Slam, as I can't see anyone trying to redefine 32 as his peak. In fact, he doesn't need the Slam; whoever he gets in the quarter - especially Murray or Djokovic - would represent a nice opportunity to put a heavy marker down.

Beware the wounded GOAT.

dummy_half wrote:If you asked Djoko, Murray and Rafa they'd certainly tell you the QF oppontent they'd most want to avoid is Roger.

Of course they would, if asked. They'd also say the same about the others. Doesn't make it true, though

Murray's hardest QF opponents in order are Berdych, Del Potro then Federer, followed by Tsonga

bogbrush wrote:It seems that Federer can't do enough to establish his pre-eminence. At almost 31 he beat Djokovic & Murray at Wimbledon, and I thought it was a nice thing to lay any ghosts for once and for all.

But then one or two have tried to argue that as he won, this was, by definition, still peak Federer. Quite wrong, but it's been said.

In some ways his awful year so far would be of extra benefit should he grab another Slam, as I can't see anyone trying to redefine 32 as his peak. In fact, he doesn't need the Slam; whoever he gets in the quarter - especially Murray or Djokovic - would represent a nice opportunity to put a heavy marker down.

Beware the wounded GOAT.

Agree with that. Which is why I won't write him off from winning another slam

The thing with Federer in his old age is, he hasn't the same motivation either.  He's done pretty much everything and holds almost all records.  Last year he had a goal;  he wanted to win a slam after a long drought and to become WN1 again, to beat the record.  He did both.  He equalled Sampras' Wimbledon record, and he beat the WN1 total weeks.  That ended everything he had set out to do.  Had he retired there and then, I would have been satisfied.  If he doesn't win another, hind sight will say he should have.

But Federer is certainly good enough to win another (even passed his best, and aged) if he wants it enough.  The shock defeat at Wimbledon may well have kicked started him; he may want to avenge that.  That's the positive I take out of it.  We will see.

Maybe hold that thought homogenised.......

https://www.606v2.com/t46471-federer-s-new-racquet-experiment

I think hindsight can be very dangerous and used sometimes by the ignorant to prove they are wise. [Please note before this blows up I am not calling you ignorant] 
 
Maybe 2012 will be the last great Federer, but even if the coming years are filled with losses to Stakhovsky and co, I don't think they'll damage the 10 great years that went before. If he doesn't win another, hindsight may say he should have called it day then (or now), but at least he'll probably know that was the number he was going to achieve rather than wondering whether he left too early.

Sampras was practically washed up by USO2002...people were writing him off, telling him to retire. It was all the motivation he needed to rip through the field for his 14th slam. Federer too has a point to now prove...no-one is going to want to face this guy, he still has slam winning potential if he can string a fortnights form together.

Fed seems to be determined to regain another step and remain competitive, and that should give anyone pause for thought before feeling complacent at drawing the old man!

TRuffin wrote:"I don't think any of Djokovic, Murray or Nadal would be concerned about drawing him on hardcourt."

That's a ridiculous statement by the OP--  yes, Fed form has been off but he is showing a desire to play himself into form by adding Hamburg and Gstaad--  maybe those too tournament will show he's truly diminished with his movement and he won't be a tough out-- but I think he will work himself into some type of decent level...   The others not worried though?   Rewatch Fed/Djoko at Cinci last year, a tournament that Federer has basically dominated and one in which Nadal has never made it past quarters--     Federer can take any of them out there...    US Open- meeting him in the quarters would be worse than meeting him in semis or even finals because at that point he would prob be gassed... Chances are he would still be fresh in the quarters.  In a one off match on hard courts- unless Fed just shows over the next couple of weeks that he can't reclaim form--  Fed is a nightmare for anyone.

I don't mean to imply that Federer has no chance against them - of course he'd have a good chance but I wouldn't expect him to be favourite. The top 4 have got to draw one of 5-8 group in the quarters and other than Tsonga I don't see Federer being more of a nightmare draw than the others.

He's played four hardcourt tournaments this year I believe
AO - lost to Murray
Rotterdam - lost to Benneteau
Dubai - lost to Berdych
Indian Wells - lost to Nadal.

Maybe I am putting too much store in these results rather than his results from last year. It will be interesting to see how the racquet change goes.

HMM, even as I was writing the article it did occur to me that I'm crediting Del Potro for perhaps more consistency than he's shown before.

No one can predict whether Federer will do an Agassi or Connors.

He is slower, no doubt, but motivation-wise, if he is considering a racquet change, it should be considered a strong indicator of his desire to be on the court for some more time to come.

I wish to see a Fedal walking down the lawns of W, proud of what they gave us (10+ years from now ). Like Laver-Rosewall at AO's 100th anniversary, or the Connor-McEnroe-Borg down the Center Court on the first day of the tourney.

Well Montreal didn't tell us much about the relative forms of the 4th to 8th players - with Federer and Tsonga absent and Berdych and Del Potro losing early.

Let's see what we can learn in Cincinnati. Tsonga is still absent, and his replacement Gasquet (for now anyway) could definitely be considered the "softest" quarter. Del Potro has a good opportunity here, Federer has the toughest draw.

I find it hilarious having written this article about who would be the toughest of the 5-8 seeds to be drawn during the US hard court swing, that the only one that actually made the QF at US Open is Gasquet!