The Rabbo Preview 2013/2014 - Welsh Regions

Here goes in Part 1 of my 4 part preview to the new season in the Rabbo.  Feel free to let me know if I have transfers wrong or missed any additional info and I will add to it.  Also leave your thoughts.

Scarlets:

Last Season: 4th Place

Transfers in 2013/14 (5 in total): Steven Shingler, John Barclay, Kyle Evans, Darren Harries, Josh Lewis, Rob Stenvenson

Transfers out 2013/14 (13 out in total): Matthew Rees, Owen Williams, Andy Fenby, George North, Dan Newton, Tavis Knoyle, Jonathan Edwards, Peter Edwards, Kieran Murphy, Rhys Jones, Dale Ford & Richie Pugh

Players likely to feature less due to International commitments: Jonathan Davies (Outside Centre for Wales), John Barclay (Scotland Openside Flanker)

Probable Starting Lineup(during international windows & rest periods):
1.  Phil John  2. Ken Owen  3. Samson Lee   4. Joe Snyman   5. George Earle   6. Rob McCusker  
7. Aaron Shingler    8.  Josh Turnbull  9. Gareth Davies  10. Rhys Priestland   11.  New Signing not confirmed yet  12. Scott Williams  13.  Gareth Maule  14. Kyle Evans/Kristian Phillips  
15.  Liam Williams

Comments:  Looking at last seasons stats the top 3 qualifying teams scored the most tries throughout the campaign.  Scarlets have lost 2 key players in Fenby & North who scored and created a key amount for the Scarlets last season.  A lot of pressure on players like Phillips & Evans to deliver tries in a league that is not short of dangerous wide men.  This could be a season to soon for either of them but the exposure should make them better players.  Rest of the team is fairly experienced and solid but may lack cutting edge and with so many players leaving  the squad could suffer if injuries occur due to lack of squad strength.  On the plus point a lot of U20’s have been very impressive and the next generation of Scarlets look like they could be very good players in a couple of seasons.  The wisdom of signing Barclay is another confusing matter to me as he will be tied with Scotland a significant amount of time plus I would imagine he didn’t come cheap.  How much we will see him in the Rabbo remains to be seen.  

Prediction: 8th – I see this season as a very competitive one.  HC qualification could be a factor so I would imagine all the teams involved will really stamp their mark on the league.  For this reason and looking at the likely team line up there are stronger contenders and I suspect the Scarlets will struggle a little this season.  

Ospreys:

Last Season: 5th Place

Transfers in 2013/14 (7 in total): Tyler Ardron, Jeff Hassler, Tito Tebaldi, Matthew Dyer, Jamie Murphy, Sam Williams, Aisea Natoga

Transfers out 2013/14 (5 out in total): Kahn Fotuali’I, Campbell Johnstone, George Stowers, Jonathan Thomas, James Goode

Players likely to feature less due to International commitments:  Richard Hibbard (Wales Hooker), Alun Wyn Jones (Wales Lock), Ian Evans (Wales Lock), Dan Biggar (Wales Fly Half), Adam Jones (Wales Prop)

Probable Starting Lineup (during international windows & rest periods):
1.  Bevington  2. Scott Baldwin  3. Aaron Jarvis   4. Ian Gough   5. Peers/Ardron   6. Joe Bearman  
7. Justin Tipuric    8.  Ryan Jones  9. Tito Tebaldi  10. Matthew Morgan   11. Hassler/Walker  12. Ashley Beck 13.  Andrew Bishop  14. Hanno Dirksen   15.  Richard Fussell

Comments:  By no means the most creative team in the competition but given the sheer forward strength the Ospreys have available it is difficult to see them not be a contender.  The new Fijian wing could also come into the fore.  For me a key signing is Tebaldi and the Ospreys have had a very good record selecting scrum halves.  The backline has been strengthened but mainly with unproven wingers at this level.  This is probably the only negative as it’s too early to tell if they will convert enough chances.  

Prediction: 4th – For me the Ospreys still have the best combination in the front 8 of any of the Welsh Regions.  I don’t think they will be scoring the tries to compete for a top 3 spot but they have enough firepower to secure the key wins that could push them into 4th spot.   For me the Ospreys are likely to be the front runners for the Welsh Regions.


Blues:

Last Season: 9th Place

Transfers in 2013/14 (3 in total): Gethin Jenkins, Matthew Rees, Miles Normandale

Transfers out 2013/14 (9 out in total): Tom James, Jamie Roberts, Ceri Sweeney, Michael Paterson, Campese Mafu, Cory Hill, Jake Cooper-Wooley, Nathan Trevett, Jason Tovey

Players likely to feature less due to International commitments:  Gentin Jenkins (Wales Prop), Sam Warburton (Wales Openside), Leigh Halfpenny (Wales Full Back), Alex Cuthbert (Wales Wing)

Probable Starting Lineup (during international windows & rest periods):
1.  Sam Hobbs  2. Matthew Rees  3. Benoit Borrust   4. Bradley Davies   5. Filo Paulo   6. Robin Copeland   7. Josh Navidi    8.  Andries Pretorius  9. Lloyd Williams  10. Rhys Patchell   11. Harry Robinson  12. Gavin Evans  13.  Owen Williams  14. Chris Czekaj   15.  Dan Fish

Comments:  On paper  they should be fairly strong.  However the Blues have flattered to deceive for a long time.  The most obvious point from last season is that they lacked any kind of pattern and certainly had no plan B.  Phil Davies inherited the squad and it will be interesting to see if he can get them into any kind of playing style.  The signings of Jenkins and Rees should see an improvement in their set piece when they are available to play.

Prediction: 10th – This is totally hunch based.  Blues have not started well in the Rabbo historically.  I suspect this may be critical this year than most due to the HC uncertainty.  There is no question there are some quality players at the Blues but without any sense of direction in their play I cannot see them overpowering teams.  One plus point however is Patchell.  There is no doubt he has a bright future in front of him and he could have some influence on how the team play.  

Dragons:

Last Season: 11th Place

Transfers in 2013/14 (7 in total): Richie Rees, Kris Burton, Martin Muller, Netani Talei, Tetaz Chaparro, T Rhys Thomas, Jason Tovery

Transfers out 2013/14 (9 out in total): Dan Lydiate, Tom Brown, Tim Ryan, Dan Watchurst, T. Chavhanga, Hywel Stoddard, Josh Tyler, Jamie Smith, A. Tuilagi

Players likely to feature less due to International commitments:  Toby Faletau (Wales No 8)

Probable Starting Lineup (during international windows & rest periods):
1.  Phil Price  2. T.R. Thomas  3. Buck/Chaparro   4. Ian Nimmo/Sidoli   5. Martin Muller   6. Andrew Coombs   7. Darren Waters    8.  Netani Talei  9. Richie Rees  10. K. Burton   11. Will Harries  12. Adam Hughes  13.  Jack Dixon  14. Prydie   15.  Daniel Evans

Comments:  For me Lyn and K. Jones as coaches should see them toughen up in the forwards somewhat.  Last season they really lacked the power in the forwards to compete.  A lot of unknown players untested at this level so it’s difficult to tell how each of them will fair.  I do think Rees, Thomas (signings) and the return of Waters will certainly add extra quality to the team.  There is no doubt the front 5 will be under a lot of pressure though and Nimmo should be physical as he is playing for a new contract this season.  Muller & Chaparro will be unknowns but if the later can bring some Argentinian grunt in the scrum it will be a great signing.  Should hopefully help improve Buck through competition.  

Prediction: 7th – Maybe it’s the love of the Dragons obscuring my view here a little.  But to justify my reasoning, here goes.  A major factor will be the lack of inclusion in the HC.  If Lyn is smart he will ignore the Challenge cup and focus the team’s attention to a best placed league finish.  Edwards tried his best to get them to play rugby last season but failed in a majority of the games to get the fundamentals and the forwards playing well.  I think Lyn will probably reverse that and focus and getting control of the ball before worrying about what to do with it.

Mushroom, great work, much appreciated - fancy doing the rest of the Rabo? Not sure that you'll see John Barclay behind Aaron Shingler in the queue for the Scarlets 7 shirt tho?

Thanks

The starting 15's are not including players probably tied to international training camps, rest periods etc.  Barclay will probably therefore miss a few rabbo matches.  Thus Shingler will be his likely replacement as Daniel will be a little inexperienced to be second choice.

Hope that makes sense

Agree with ASBO - John Barclay is a better out and out openside than Shingler.

Predicting the Dragons to finish about the Scarlets is bold.

Just a few comments, you are only accounting for first team players or am i missing who the second flyhalf and other positions will be.

Dragons will not be as poor as last year as they probably have the best coach of the four teams but they wont be the second best welsh team.

I am not a massive burton fan and the only reason i can see him leaving a team on the up was he was being replaced. But Dargon will have a better team but so will those around them so i think more points but bottem 3.

Ospreys have more or less the same team so as long as the avoid a bad start i think it will be a clear top 4 10+pts

Scarlets and blues though lossing players will not miss them massively as they did play loads. Problem for them is Munster and treviso will stronger.

Os with a good HC ending in the Amlin
Blues
Scarlets with an almost second in the HC
Dragons compeditive but bottom 3, hopefully an Amlin 1/4

Welshmushroom wrote:Thanks

The starting 15's are not including players probably tied to international training camps, rest periods etc.  Barclay will probably therefore miss a few rabbo matches.  Thus Shingler will be his likely replacement as Daniel will be a little inexperienced to be second choice.

Hope that makes sense

Gotcha, yep makes perfect sense - again, great stuff

Only commenting on starting line ups. I've no doubt injuries will play a part as well as squad strength. Just looking at the best possible teams on paper without internationals available as generally they are not regularly available for the teams.

I defo have my tinted glasses on when it comes to the Dragons. I've no doubt that my viewpoint was obscured by my loyalty to gwent.

Nimmo in place of Coombsy and switching Dixon to outside centre big calls I doubt Lyn will make.

Mushroom, you've got McCusker and Turnbull back to front there too.

Personally I predict that the Scarlets/Ospreys will be in the playoff battle again, and one of them will make it at the cost of the other. I also think the Blues and Dragons will both be in the battle for the top of the chasing pack (7th-12th), and not too sure who will end up the bottom, but I have a feeling it will be the Blues.

As for the HEC/Amlin, I think its pool stage exits all around, but the Dragons may progress.

Stone Motif wrote:Nimmo in place of Coombsy and switching Dixon to outside centre big calls I doubt Lyn will make.

I think Lyn will probably listen to his players. Coombs himself prefers Blindside Flanker. Transition from inside to outside centre isn't a big one for Dixon. He's played quite a bit of rugby in both positions at Premiership level.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Mushroom, you've got McCusker and Turnbull back to front there too.

Personally I predict that the Scarlets/Ospreys will be in the playoff battle again, and one of them will make it at the cost of the other.  I also think the Blues and Dragons will both be in the battle for the top of the chasing pack (7th-12th), and not too sure who will end up the bottom, but I have a feeling it will be the Blues.

As for the HEC/Amlin, I think its pool stage exits all around, but the Dragons may progress.

Statistically speaking the top 4 sides tend to be the 4 that score the most tries. Looking at the Scarlets I have no idea where thos tries will come from now that Fenby and North are gone. I think we both may be a bit optimistic when it comes to our teams the Scarlets & Dragons.

The Scarlets are also signing Aaron Warren, Dion Jones, Gareth Thomas, Carwyn Jones, Sion Bennett and Lewis Rawlins for the 2013/2014 season, none of whom (as far as I know) were officially part of the Scarlets senior squad during the 2012/2013 season (I'm unable to see them on the Scarlets website under the tab 'squad' [which is yet to be updated for the 2013/2014 season]).

http://www.scarlets.co.uk/eng/news/5871.php

Sorry I have not included players that have been promoted from their youth systems. The players you refer to may be new in terms of the senior squad but have been part of the Scarlets development pathway for some time. I therefore didn't call these signings but promotions.

funnyExiledScot wrote:Agree with ASBO - John Barclay is a better out and out openside than Shingler.

Predicting the Dragons to finish about the Scarlets is bold.

Its actually crazy.  

In fairness the reality is that its more likely the Scarlets will finish higher than the Dragons but a fan cant help but be optimistic.

Probably the best article I've read in a couple of months - compelling, rich, and not afraid to lay your nuts on the chopping block.

Great stuff!

Well done mushroom - helping to tide me over through the rugby desert that is August till we arrive at the September oasis   

Welshmushroom wrote:Statistically speaking the top 4 sides tend to be the 4 that score the most tries.  Looking at the Scarlets I have no idea where thos tries will come from now that Fenby and North are gone.  I think we both may be a bit optimistic when it comes to our teams the Scarlets & Dragons.

Your right the Scarlets ability to run tries in wide has been drastically reduced, but I think their pack may be key to making it. They seemed to be building a bit of a rep as a decent scrummaging pack towards the end of the season (bar the farce v Treviso), so if that can stop being a point of weakness and start to be a weapon in itself then I think the backs will manage to stumble over the line eventually. That said I am always confident this time of the season, maybe after seeing the pre-season friendlies I may change my tune.

I think the Dragons have one of the best backlines in the regions at the moment, certainly the best potential, but unless their pack can hit the ground running I think it is going to be hard for them to show what they can do. However if Muller and this Argentinian prop do shine then the Dragons could well be in for a decent season, especially giving that Faletau has a pretty inhuman recovery time compared to other international players. If the pack gets parity the Dragons should pick up a few 'shock' wins.

If the Dragons finish second-best region in 7th, I'll eat my season ticket.  

To be fair I think from position 4-7 there will be very little separating teams in terms of points. This could be one of the most competitive seasons the Rabbo has seen yet.

One of the problems with last season (and there were a few) is that when we lost, we lost good and proper. I doubt we picked up even half-a-dozen losing bonus points. The Blues won maybe two or three more games than we did, but they got a fair few LBPs.

N.B. I haven't looked at the table, I'm just relying on memory.

Think Coombs will be in the engine room still, with Lewis Evans at 6 (if Ieuan Jones is away on U20 duties, otherwise you might see Talei 6, Jones 8).

Are you preferring Rees over Jon Evans or thinking he will be in the Welsh squad, as I don't for both? He'll still get ignored by the selectors and will likely be first choice for us.

Good work by the way.

Well to be fair the Dragons are gifted at Scrum Half. We have 3 quality scrum halves so whoever makes it will need to be playing well. I put Rees in front because of his experience. That said any of the other 2 are capable.

Lewis Evans at 6 I hope is not the choice. I would prefer Talei at 6 with Falatau at 8 with Talei switching to 8 when Falatau is unavailable. Without being harsh on Lewis Evans I don't think he fits the 6 or 8 position. I'd rather them move Combs there and utilize the other 4 locks available who will add more bulk to the front 5.

I'd imagine Coombs adds more ballast to a scrum than the other four. I would want Coombs as the abrasive type four and Muller (if coming or fit) as the five.

I take your point on Evans not being first choice when others are there, but think he'll have to be when they aren't.

Whos the Dragons captain this season, is it lewis evans again?

They haven't announced it yet, as far as I know. It would be a shame if they took it off Lewis, because it must have been tough captaining the Dragons last season and trying to keep spirits up. He had some great performances in there too, like away to Bayonne.

Think it'll be Coombs myself. Not sure if Evans will want it again anyway

He'd make a good captain. I suppose the only question is whether he's likely to be involved for Wales again.

Anyone done a thread on the pre season friendlies? is there a fixture list for all the regions anywhere?

Not sure about the rest but Scarlets have

Exeter @ PYS - Sat 17th Aug
Oxford Welsh @ Kassam - Sun 25th Aug (not the 24th like the website syas/said grrr)
Glaws @ Kingsholm - Fri 30th Aug

cheers SS

Seems like the Scarlets have signed WQ Rob Stevenson as well. @Welshmushroom; I think you ought to add him to the Scarlets 'transfers in'.

https://twitter.com/robstevenson10 wrote:Rob Stevenson ‏@robstevenson10 5 Jul
Made the Scarlets squad!! Only been to one session as well #toohappy #musthavebeentheturnovers

Mushroom,

Surely Lewis Evans and young Ieuan Jones will figure in a lot of starting XVs especially with Toby and possibly Coombes involved with Wales.

Muhsroom, one issue I have with the starting line ups is omitting the "international" players. Whilst a lot of games do occur during the AI and 6N, most of them don't, although during the internationals teams with poor depth (all the regions) do get exposed. My main gripe is the players you've chosen to omit. Fair enough removing Hibbard, AWJ etc. from the Ospreys, but are Ryan Jones and Justin Tipuric unlikely to make the Welsh squad or team? The same goes for Priestland, Owens, Lloyd Williams, Bradley Davies, Andrew Coombes...

Other than that, great article. I think it's a good shout with the Dragons, they've perhaps got the best coaching set up of the lot, Lyn is clearly a quality coach, and alongside Kingsley and the astute signings they made early in the Summer, I really think they'll start to threaten. Compared to Phil Davies, who apparently neglects to coach defence, and the seemingly inverted structure of seniority at the Scarlets of Easterby and Danny Wilson, they've got an enviable set up. I'd predict them to pip one of the Scarlets and the Blues, but not both.

Not this season I suspect, but I guess this one is for bedding in and improving. If we get our home record back and front up on the road, then we could be heading in the right direction, but though I'm positive about this season for the Dragons, I am still not that sure we can close the gap that much from last season.

Welshmushroom wrote:

Stone Motif wrote:Nimmo in place of Coombsy and switching Dixon to outside centre big calls I doubt Lyn will make.

I think Lyn will probably listen to his players.  Coombs himself prefers Blindside Flanker.  Transition from inside to outside centre isn't a big one for Dixon.  He's played quite a bit of rugby in both positions at Premiership level.

Lyn will probably watch his players too, and he will quickly realise that despite Nimmo's neanderthal looks he's about as much use as Lady Gaga on the pitch. Coombs will play where needed and is arguably the only international standard lock we have. Sorry but taking Jack Dixon out of the 12 shirt, where he is the heir apparent for Wales imo, and shoving Adam Hughes out of position will both waste potentially our best attacking weapon and weaken our defence, given that Burton aside neither of our other young maestros like to even attempt to tackle.

It would surprise me if Coombs wanted to play 6 again. He got capped predominately as a lock and it's realistically his only chance of adding to those caps gained (bit more depth in backrow).

http://www.thisissouthwales.co.uk/Davies-joins-Lions-star-brother-Scarlets/story-19578381-detail/story.html#axzz2aFESDqRL wrote:
So too will Tongan Sione Timani, who has agreed a new contract. Timani had been released by the Scarlets at the end of last season, but a deal with French side Agen fell through because of their relegation from the Top 14, and he has been back training at Parc y Scarlets.

@Welshmushroom; Timani is defenitely staying at the Scarlets, I think you ought to remove him from your Scarlets 'transfers out'.

The Scarlets did a nice piece of business by offloading North. He is a super player but looked like he couldn't be arsed half the time and is missing throughtout the season. He is now off the wage bill and they got a fee for him too! Well done Scarlets  


Cardiff must be delighted to see Roberts leave too. A man who always seemed to be injured for them but always recovered just in time for Wales!

The Ospreys look the strongest with their first team available.  The Scarlets have lost a lot of depth for this season.  the Dragons have good coaches but poor players.  The Blues have under achieved for years.

I expect the Ospreys to be leading the way as usual.

miaow wrote:Muhsroom, one issue I have with the starting line ups is omitting the "international" players. Whilst a lot of games do occur during the AI and 6N, most of them don't, although during the internationals teams with poor depth (all the regions) do get exposed. My main gripe is the players you've chosen to omit. Fair enough removing Hibbard, AWJ etc. from the Ospreys, but are Ryan Jones and Justin Tipuric unlikely to make the Welsh squad or team? The same goes for Priestland, Owens, Lloyd Williams, Bradley Davies, Andrew Coombes...

Other than that, great article. I think it's a good shout with the Dragons, they've perhaps got the best coaching set up of the lot, Lyn is clearly a quality coach, and alongside Kingsley and the astute signings they made early in the Summer, I really think they'll start to threaten. Compared to Phil Davies, who apparently neglects to coach defence, and the seemingly inverted structure of seniority at the Scarlets of Easterby and Danny Wilson, they've got an enviable set up. I'd predict them to pip one of the Scarlets and the Blues, but not both.

The reason I included Ryan Jones & Tipuric and omitted the others, was primarily that the others will or currently are starting 15 players for wales. Generally players outside of the match day 15 get released back to the regions. There is no doubt Jones and Tipuric could force their way into the starting 15 and this guide was only a likely summary of players that are going to be unavailable. Additionally the WRU tend to look after the starting 15 a little more and they seem to feature a little less than international squad players.

Granted its all subject to selection and form (as well as injury) so its purely subjective on my part.

Re ospreys I hope that the team might look more like this

Bevington Baldwin Jarvis/Rees
Peers King
Bearman Baker Tipuric
Webb Biggar
Beck John
Walker Jones Dirksen

I think Peers and King might be a little light in the second row. There are some big bruising tight fives out there and I'm a bit confused why the Ospreys have not strengthened there. Both King and Peers are 6'4 which I think is also a little short to be operating the lineout.

maestegmafia wrote:Re ospreys I hope that the team might look more like this

Bevington Baldwin Jarvis/Rees
Peers King
Bearman Baker Tipuric
Webb Biggar
Beck John
Walker Jones Dirksen

MM, on the weekend that Wales play Aus, the Os play Glasgow at the liberty, with ALL the French and English based players being excluded, you can take Bevington, Tipuric, Biggar, Beck and Walker out of that team, it is very unlikely Dirksen will be back by that time, Morgan Allen was preferred to Baker by the Os coaches last season, don't see that changing much and if Webb is preferred to Habberfield and/or Tebaldi the Os forum will go berserk.
I think for that game the team will be more like D. Jones Baldwin Arhip,Peers,King,Bearman,Allen,Ardron(Can), Habberfield, Sam Davies Bishop John, Hassler(can), Fussell, Jones/Isaacs