Is this the end for the GOAT of tennis?

Is Roger Federer on his way out of the game he has transformed to new heights?

He's been out for last 3 years. A glimpse of magic here and there, but he's done.

He's scared like a little puppy on important points, and should quit at WTF, if he qualifies.

Otherwise it has been a nice decade to watch and I count my self lucky to have seen him play live on 11 tournaments

Let's hope Mirka gives him a son, and see what happens

I have pretty much been saying to my tennis friends that Federer is suffering a crisis of confidence at the moment since his loss at Wimbledon. I kinda wonder if he has hit the wall in terms of his desire to continue. I wish he hadn't changed his racquet and then back again as that summed up how desperate he had gotten.

For me he will either persevere and practice harder and put the hours in or maybe walk away from the game as he has achieved a shed load.

Fair question, although I don't accept anyone as GOAT. Transformed the game to new heights? Not sure I agree with that either. Nadal has more of a case there actually. Depends on interpretation of "heights" and his legacy on the game that others now follow.

Lets look more deeply and analytically at the situation. He can roll over poor opponents but when anyone seriously challenges him, especially in longer physical ralleys, he kind of rolls over himself these days. The problem is his mind is becoming weaker and his early days panic tendencies have come back again in crunch moments. Panicing is not new to Federer, its what held him back pre-2003. The link then and now? Well as I've maintained for some time its all linked to his relative physical "weakness" - then and now. In modern tennis put simply, stronger bodies = stronger minds. This is what helped him after 2003 particularly when he changed his fitness routine to become much stronger and fitter. As a result of the long-term Paganini workouts he became so much mentally stronger and knew he could basically overpower and outlast people. His confidence was sky-high in going toe-to-toe for as long as needed. His mind worked better, thought more clearly. That's not the case now vs today's top players. These days he's basically let himself go physically (for whatever reason...) and I believe he's paying for it mentally. But he cant seem to see it. He's in denial, blaming the racquet, etc. Instead when the ralley gets extended he's pulling the trigger far too early because he has no confidence in his ability to last the course in a ralley. He's red-lining his technique.

Look at Robredo and Haas...guys who recognise they have to put in the hard physical yards to compete at the highest level, and relative to their own skill peaks they're still doing really well - probably not far of how they used to do. Agassi was the same. Last night Robredo made him look physically puny out there...especially when you looked at their 2 physiques...most higher-end players make Federer look puny these days. He's relying on his talent to win but its not enough. He's having to really force his talent/technique to make up for physical power shortages...and he cant rely on it anymore so it feeds into his panic tendencies even more. A vicious downwards circle he seems stuck in.

There is no reason IMO why Federer shouldn't still be making semis or finals in selected big events.If he was in tip-top physical-mental condition. Yes his motivation to train may be on the wane but I'm not interested in that when he keeps saying how much he loves the game and wants to get better. If he's sick and tired of losing early then start addressing the problem properly...ok tweak the racquet - although that's more a desperate quick fix, but more importantly its his body that needs the real tweaking!

If he can then he's not done yet by a long chalk...otherwise the increasing physical gap between him and others in the top 20 is going to just overwhelm him.

I'd say he's as good as done.

His success has flowed from fleetness of foot, lightning reactions and immaculate timing. All have now waned and I don't think any amount of work in the gym will bring them back. It's simply what happens when sportsmen, even those blessed with genius, get older.

Of course, putting in the hard yards like Haas will slow the decline but it won't reverse it.

I strongly suspect the back is a major hindrance. Even when it isn't hurting (he claims it wasn't this week), just knowing the problem is there and can return at any moment must play havoc with a sportsman's mindset both in matches and training.

I'm inclined agree with HM, although I also agree with Lydian that it's difficult (and ultimately pointless) to try and proclaim any player as the GOAT.

Obviously he's not as fit - perhaps it's more accurate to say he's more affected by injury these days - and he's had a back problem since his early 20s at least. But it's more age and mileage than fitness, both in physical and mental terms. I happen to think that there is a significant element of mental strength that is independent of physical strength - Fed's stats in tie-breaks for example don't rely on him knowing he can outlast a player over the next 12 or so points and the end of 1 or 2 sets - it's far more than that. (Perhaps a greater proportion of Rafa's mental strength relies physical strength than Fed's).

Age and mileage means both more physical and mental weariness. It takes longer to recover both after tough matches and longer to physically recuperate from injuries. I think it's a lot tougher to be at 100% mental concentration and focus for matches 1000-1100 than it is for matches 600-700, regardless of any physical factors.

Connors run at the '91 USO shows that Fed could still reach the later stages of slams form time to time for a while, if he continues playing, but you also have to look at Connors results from 85-90 to see what else is coming.

He's as good as done vs the guy we knew 04-07, absolutely.
This isn't about getting to his peak again, just whatever is his best relative peak right now. His talent and speed are still top drawer, good enough to still get to significant finals if he could support that with better physicality. We're not talking every final, just the odd one.

The problem for me is that his talent is a blessing and a curse. He relies on his innate skill far too much, in fact I think its made him lazy physically. He's trying to fight physicality with skill but it doesn't work. Its not 04-07 anymore.

He's also not trying to change strategy of approach. He should be net rushing more...but as always in his career he's loathe to change things. He has a stubborn streak where he believes he doesn't need to modify things, that his skill will win out.

It comes down to motivation, agreed. He has to want to change and rededicate himself. The thinking is that he doesn't want to, has lost the mojo to do it. Then fair enough...but he needs to stop fooling himself and the tennis world that he's a contender anymore. Just retire. Or stick in...he's definitely at that crossroads right now and if he doesn't make WTF this year then I reckon he'll go. But...he could change things if he wanted to, to get that last blaze of glory...I don't believe the back is issue for training hard. The problem is in his head being stuck in denial with a few things.

His fans will not want to see Fed lose the kind of matches he's lost this year, yet will not to want him to retire just yet, either. If Fed can make the year-end championship and do OK there then at least it will give him some points to carry into 2014.
It does look that, whatever happens, 2014 will be his last year. His twins will be going to school next year and he's not going to want to endure endless talk about retirement.
It always feels a bit empty when he gets dumped out of a tournament and it's sure gonna be tough when he finally calls it a day.

Nice points JHM and HMM. Mileage is a factor but we don't know how much. He looks a little burnt out, but having lower physicality levels wont help. He's having to rely on innate skill and clutch to get through. I mean look at the guy, his arms and legs are now starting to resemble twigs...how can anyone in such a physical sport as tennis expect to be contesting the major finals with that physique? Particularly as he cant rely on sheer speed and timing anymore.

He went toe to toe with Nadal for long spells at Cincy so we know he has the ability at times...if he can play like that for 2-3 hours he's I don't see why he can train hard in a gym. You could argue the lack of gymwork is actually exposing the back too. Its all a vicious circle. I'd rather he just retire than be the shadow of the player he was, I just don't get the sense he's trying hard to be anywhere near as good as he could be right now on 2013.

Yep sfp, I said back in 2010-11 I thought he's go out at Basel 2014...where it all began as ballboy and his first pro event.

Great post JHM.

The mental strength element raised by JHM is a very interesting one. To me, there are perhaps 3 facets pf mental strength:

1) The 'inert' strength, temperament really, that enables you to be calm under pressure. This is well exemplified by Federer's tie break record.

2) The mental strength that flows from fitness. In other words, the comfort that comes from knowing all you have to worry about is the right shot at the right time. This is because you are not having to make too many allowances for physical breakdown. I would argue that Federer's record in 5th sets is evidence of a slight shortfall in this department.

3) The strength that comes from being able to impose your game on your opponent, either by superior ability or a favourable stylistic match up. A good example of this is Rafa. His style is a nightmare for most of the tour and we so often see his opponents crumble as they are forced to try things outside of their comfort zone. But for the one period where an opponent was able to regularly negate Rafa's game and impose his own (Novak in 2011), it was Rafa who started to look nervous and crack in the big moments.

Bringing it back to Federer, I'd say he still has category 1, does not have category 2 anymore and category 3 is declining sharply.

Some excellent posts from lydian, LK, HM and JHM here. There are just too many categories in which Federer is lacking currently, and whilst I agree that some heavy-duty gym work could put him right back in the mixer at many events, I seriously question his desire to flog himself back into that sort of shape. More worrying is the confidence issue - this has only sprung up this year, and is becoming a major problem. We saw it at Rome, then again at RG, but this was the worst of the lot. You could just tell that he didn't trust himself.

I've been a fervent defender of Federer this year, and of his future prospects. But even I think that this is the end of the road, now. It's not that he lacks the ability or capacity to spring back into form and shape - I just don't think he truly wants to anymore, no matter how he kids himself. And in honesty, it's difficult to blame the man.

I think if Federer is to continue with the racquet change, the ultimate question is it still enough to compete against the top 3? I don't think it is.

I agree with lydian that the physical limitations of Federer's game are rattling his confidence.

Absolutely silver. When you've climbed Mt Everest 17 times and sat atop the (tennis) world the desire to see that view again may still be there but the motivation to take the necessary steps in preparing to climb then actually climbing back up may not.

I'm not Feds biggest fan but even for me it was painful viewing last night. Thank goodness he didn't meet Evans or he could have been highly embarrassed! He was unable to attack fully at times which is a new problem for him, at others he was pulling the trigger way too early, and on others it was poor shot selection like that meek BH slice that threw away Set 2. Robredo isn't particularly mentally strong but made Fed look like a dithering-impulsive wreck in comparison.  

Only Federer, sitting in Base Camp, this morning knows whether he feels like venturing up the mountain again. Like many I suspect not, my points were more to point out what he needs to do. I don't see a Sampras fairytale for him now...infact its arguable he had it at Wimb12 but there was no way he would retire then.

Various points should be made. Yes, Agassi went on well into his 30s but he had fallen off the edge completely in 1997, slipping to ranking 141 and had not put in anything like the mileage Fed had by the time the two of them were 32.
Similarly with Tommy Haas, who has had many months off during his career. Fed, on the other hand, has played pretty much continuously throughout his career.
Comparisons with Sampras also have to take into account that Sampras did not win a single tournament for two years before clinching the 2002 US Open when he was just 31 and then never played again, although delaying an official announcement of his retiring until well into 2003.

If Fed actually were to win another slam, then anything after the AO next year would make him the oldest slam winner since Andres Gimeno in 1972.
That makes it sound even more unlikely.

I think what lydian has said about Federer's physique is spot on. When I saw his arms last night they looked like an 80 year old hospital patient's!! It was ranging on the arms of a long-distance runner (think Mo Farah or Bekele) rather than a professional tennis player, especially compared to Nadal's Popeye biceps or Murray's new physique. I know Djokovic is wiry but there's a difference between wiry and puny. If someone could create a timeline of pictures of Federer's physique over the years that would be interesting.

lydian wrote:Fair question, although I don't accept anyone as GOAT. Transformed the game to new heights? Not sure I agree with that either. Nadal has more of a case there actually. Depends on interpretation of "heights" and his legacy on the game that others now follow.

Lets look more deeply and analytically at the situation. He can roll over poor opponents but when anyone seriously challenges him, especially in longer physical ralleys, he kind of rolls over himself these days. The problem is his mind is becoming weaker and his early days panic tendencies have come back again in crunch moments. Panicing is not new to Federer, its what held him back pre-2003. The link then and now? Well as I've maintained for some time its all linked to his relative physical "weakness" - then and now. In modern tennis put simply, stronger bodies = stronger minds. This is what helped him after 2003 particularly when he changed his fitness routine to become much stronger and fitter. As a result of the long-term Paganini workouts he became so much mentally stronger and knew he could basically overpower and outlast people. His confidence was sky-high in going toe-to-toe for as long as needed. His mind worked better, thought more clearly. That's not the case now vs today's top players. These days he's basically let himself go physically (for whatever reason...) and I believe he's paying for it mentally. But he cant seem to see it. He's in denial, blaming the racquet, etc. Instead when the ralley gets extended he's pulling the trigger far too early because he has no confidence in his ability to last the course in a ralley. He's red-lining his technique.

Look at Robredo and Haas...guys who recognise they have to put in the hard physical yards to compete at the highest level, and relative to their own skill peaks they're still doing really well - probably not far of how they used to do. Agassi was the same. Last night Robredo made him look physically puny out there...especially when you looked at their 2 physiques...most higher-end players make Federer look puny these days. He's relying on his talent to win but its not enough. He's having to really force his talent/technique to make up for physical power shortages...and he cant rely on it anymore so it feeds into his panic tendencies even more. A vicious downwards circle he seems stuck in.

There is no reason IMO why Federer shouldn't still be making semis or finals in selected big events.If he was in tip-top physical-mental condition. Yes his motivation to train may be on the wane but I'm not interested in that when he keeps saying how much he loves the game and wants to get better. If he's sick and tired of losing early then start addressing the problem properly...ok tweak the racquet - although that's more a desperate quick fix, but more importantly its his body that needs the real tweaking!

If he can then he's not done yet by a long chalk...otherwise the increasing physical gap between him and others in the top 20 is going to just overwhelm him.

Geez give the guy a break. Now I have heard it all: he's gotten lazy, does it only for money, doesn't have the balls, mentally week etc. etc. all of this is bshit!! The guy got old. He's human after all. It has happened to all of them before and no doubt will keep going  like that. Fullstop.

Would certainly agree that Fed is the GOAT - so far.

But he looked a thoroughly dispirited and beaten man last night, and well before the end.

That anticipation and quickness that has made his game appear so effortless was nowhere to be seen against Robredo, and there was no sign of consistency, let alone inspiration in his play.

Admittedly the intense humidity (BG said it was the worst he'd experienced at the US Open, and Rafa changed top-to-bottom following every set, he was so drenched with sweat) slowed the ball and the court down, but Fed of old would have coped with that against a Tommy R.

Did you see his presser? Clearly confused and unwilling to accept what all could see: he just doesn't have it any more.

His ranking will possibly slip even further meaning more quarter final (or earlier) battles against the Big Three, or even nemesises of the past Berdych, Jo Willy and Del Potro (not that he looked too clever himself). Why should he put himself through this any more, unless it's for purely commercial reasons?

He can't possibly make the Tour Finals on present form, so throw in the towel whilst you can still see the top, Roger.

PS: Mirka didn't look in the mood to give him the opportunity for a son or anything else last night, face like a thundercloud - watch out.

This is a very interesting thread and I think that Lydian has made a strong argument. I knew it just wasn't me when I observed that Roger appeared to lose muscle mass since the heady days of 2004-07. I remember during his memorable 5-set battle with Nadal in the Rome 2006 final, that he had very broad shoulders and a well-defined upper chest. Now, he seems emaciated and gaunt, almost a physical shell of the athlete during the zenith of his dominance.

I would say, though, that I think that Roger, even at his peak, has always been prone to complacency. I think the tennis media's (premature) annointing of him as the Greatest of All Time, went to his head and I think he believed he was invincible. With his perceived invincibility came arrogance, especially vis-á-vis Rafael Nadal. Early on, it did not appear that he was seriously trying to adopt different tactics to beat Rafa, and still foolishly believes that he can hang with him from the back of the court. Of course, most of Rafa's wins have come on clay, where his game thrives, but he has also become a force to be reckoned with on all other surfaces as well.

Although on the surface, it appears that he had taken the media adulation and acclaim in stride, and he is trying different things with Paul Annacone, the stubborn streak still persists.

There may be some truth in what you say kemet, but how much does a player risk changing his game for one opponent, when you're only losing 5 or 6 matches a year?
During 2004-2007 he was winning more slams than Rafa (who wasn't threatening in the AO or USO), beating him on grass and also he kept Rafa of No. 1 for 3 years or so. In that time Rafa probably accounted for about 2% of Fed's matches, mostly on Rafa's preferred surface.
If he'd concentrated solely on building a game to beat Rafa, he might have ended up losing to various other players and winning less slams overall.

lydian wrote:Fair question, although I don't accept anyone as GOAT. Transformed the game to new heights? Not sure I agree with that either. Nadal has more of a case there actually. Depends on interpretation of "heights" and his legacy on the game that others now follow.

Look at Robredo and Haas...guys who recognise they have to put in the hard physical yards to compete at the highest level, and relative to their own skill peaks they're still doing really well - probably not far of how they used to do. Agassi was the same. Last night Robredo made him look physically puny out there...especially when you looked at their 2 physiques...most higher-end players make Federer look puny these days. He's relying on his talent to win but its not enough. He's having to really force his talent/technique to make up for physical power shortages...and he cant rely on it anymore so it feeds into his panic tendencies even more. A vicious downwards circle he seems stuck in.

If he can then he's not done yet by a long chalk...otherwise the increasing physical gap between him and others in the top 20 is going to just overwhelm him.

The rate Nadal is going at now suggests he will surely overtake Federer in slams won. Whether he is a GOAT only time will tell. I think he will win this US Open but at the moment, bar the FO, He has never been able to defend a slam off clay. I feel if he had come up against Djokovic early on in finals especially clay ones he may not have won so much as usually Federer would dismiss Djokovic and lose to Nadal.

As for Haas/Robredo, these guys have been floating about missing chunks of the season. Take Haas, he has just come back into great form because he was out of the game conditioning himself. Same with Nadal. If he had continued after Wimbledon without the break maybe he would have done himself more damage. If Robredo and Haas had been as consistent as Federer the last 10 years I seriously doubt they would have been playing so well.

Federer is looking washed out physically. I don't think he is as committed to his tennis as before. There is nothing left in the game to motivate him and I think the last bit of motivation was maybe the gold medal and most probably the #1 record which he achieved.

FedsFan wrote:The rate Nadal is going at now suggests he will surely overtake Federer in slams won.

At one a year, it will take him awhile  

Of all of Federers defeats post RG, this is the most worrying. Sergey at Wimbledon was a grass court masterclass, 14 winners to one u/e in the final set. Sure peak Federer could have worked through it, but weve long accepted that this isnt peak Federer. The two Clay court defeats could be attributed to a new racquet, while the Nadal defeat was actually very encouraging. This, on the other hand...

Lydian: You and I have talked about Fed's need to strengthen his core especially and his over all fitness and I have agreed with a lot if it, but in this case- my eyes tell me Federer has been doing the work.. Maybe there wasn't enough time to really work his body the way it was needed as I'm sure the issues after Hamburg/Gstaad derailed him, but I didn't see a puny Federer this week at all.. He was as thin as I've seen him for sure- but was all taut wire.. There were some pictures of him from the back with his shirt off at practice and his back, esp lower around the core was absolutely ripped.. It was a drastic difference from similar pictures just a couple of months ago... Cahill said someone in the Fed camp told him Federer had lost 6 kilos (if true that around 13lbs?) which seems like a lot and maybe that gives him the puny look- but he sure looked like a wiry ripped guy to me..

Interesting quote from his French portion of his presser......... there's a little fire still there.

You are an instinctive and prodigiously gifted player. When timing leaves you, and you hit the ball so "slowly" (or "softly"?), aren't you a bit disillusioned?

Maybe. And on the other hand, it's the enitre story of my life: proving, give reason or make wrong. People think "Is he really trying? Is he implicated enough? Does he still want it? Is it so terrible? He's capable to play so well..." With this result, I know you won't believe in me anymore . I have no doubt about it, I see it. But I can assure you that I work hard. I'm trying everything in my power, and I will continue.

Lydian, has it about correct, but I also think that Roger lacks the mental toughness that you need to make up for the loss of talent / form

He's always been an artist and was allowed to paint what he wanted in his peak - mainly because he was the best ever

But now there is a need to adapt and I'm not certain he has the same street fighting qualities that helped Agassi, Connors and even Pistol's magnificent end to his career

banbrotam wrote:Lydian, has it about correct, but I also think that Roger lacks the mental toughness that you need to make up for the loss of talent / form

He's always been an artist and was allowed to paint what he wanted in his peak - mainly because he was the best ever

But now there is a need to adapt and I'm not certain he has the same street fighting qualities that helped Agassi, Connors and even Pistol's magnificent end to his career

think thats a bit harsh but I take your point, Federer was the same age as Pete pretty much when he won Wimbledon last year beating Novak and Andy and then became World Number 1. Had he quit there, there is your magnificent end, Pete quite right there Federer has carried on

JuliusHMarx wrote:

FedsFan wrote:The rate Nadal is going at now suggests he will surely overtake Federer in slams won.

At one a year, it will take him awhile  

With Novak struggling these days and Murray being a question mark when he sees Nadal over the net, I think Nadal may pass Federer sooner than most people think. If Fed was closer to 20 then may be not but 12 to 17 is not impossible.

FedsFan wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

FedsFan wrote:The rate Nadal is going at now suggests he will surely overtake Federer in slams won.

At one a year, it will take him awhile  

With Novak struggling these days and Murray being a question mark when he sees Nadal over the net, I think Nadal may pass Federer sooner than most people think. If Fed was closer to 20 then may be not but 12 to 17 is not impossible.

Maybe he will, maybe he won't. All I'm saying is that "the rate Nadal is going now" is one a year. He would need to improve that.

I don't really come in much now and don't have the appetite for a long debate, but I'll say only that I feel vindicated in that I've been pointing out this gradual decline for a good three years. It's just reached the point where almost anyone can beat him so suddenly we get folk noticing, but really it's been obvious for ages.

A year ago, after winning Wimbledon, it was all about him being at his peak, which was patent nonsense but it kept some people, especially in the British media, happy.

It's just age. That includes the effects of marriage, fatherhood, competing activities. Age brings lots of effects as well as physical decline and few are useful to a top athlete.

I don't mind him sticking around because every now and again he throws in the best tennis the game has to offer, but it's rare now. The only negative is like on TV the other night when one idiot said he's not declined, it's everyone else who's caught up. Yeah. Daniel Brands, Tommy Robredo. They all caught up. FFS. That does a grotesque disservice to the incredible standard he set in his younger days, and that just annoys me.

I have a different theory to Roger's decline. I do not deny he is not as fit as he once was but I believe Roger was adamant his back was fine going into this tournament and his display against Nadal recently backed this up and he had no problems in his previous matches here. I say he is merely suffering from a total lack of belief and confidence brought about by many recent losses against players he used to beat for fun. I liken it to a punch-drunk boxer who has taken one blow too many. It means that if Roger meets a player who can be competitive from the get go and pressurises him then the doubts and lack of confidence leads him to miss shots or under hit them screwing his game plan. He still desires to play at the top and still believes he can but when the chips are down the self-belief and lack of confidence inhibits his game far too much.

I don't know, 17 is a really big number and Nadal has missed big chunks out of his career through injury. It's not impossible but its a really big ask. Right now he's on 12 and we have no way of knowing if he'll win another slam or those knees crumble again.

TRuffin, nice points. I can't comment on what you say about him having worked out recently. It would be good if you could post links, etc, as I haven't heard any of that although it may well be true of course. Lets assume it is true...perhaps since Gstaad Federer has been working out and losss the 6 kilos. Well that can be a concern in that he's also loss a lot of muscle density along with the fat...muscle gets burnt before fat in the body, its actually really hard as you get older to maintain high muscle density whilst staying ripped/thin. It could be possible that Fed looks so gaunt because he's lost density and fat, leaving him aerobically fitter but weaker than before. This would still affect his shots in longer rally's which is what I saw when I watched him yesterday. Something physically simply doesn't add up for me...something doesn't look/feel right, and lets face it he's completely different from his physique of 5-6 years ago. Unsurprisingly his slam count increase started to go down after that too...I actually think the brief mono phase knocked him off his training stride and he never recovered his physique in quite the same way afterwards...although his sheer speed/talent made up any shortfall back then too. Now he's lost some speed, some technique and he's not as strong...leading to loss of confidence and panicking morein crunch moments. If he's putting the hard work in then I'm not sure it's giving the right results physically, he's too lean.

Yes I would regard recent results as a total lack of confidence, but his decline has been steady over the years CC. He stopped being a major contender for Slams after his AO 2010 victory. Yes his run at QF's was still intact, but did anyone seriously think of him as a winning one given his curve was declining whilst Djokovic, Nadal and Murray's were inclining. Had Nadal not been injured 2009 you do wonder if Federer would've won many more Slams than he did.

Confidence and self-belief in tennis is massive and the only way you get it and hold on to it is winning. Sure Roger is no spring chicken now but he is getting beaten by similarly ageing Tommy Robredo so it isn't just an age thing.

It has been accumulative since Rafa got his number in slams and it must have been a blow to go from being virtually unbeatable by anyone to unable to beat your main rival. Perhaps that sowed the seeds of doubt and those seeds just lowered his self-belief levels down to where Djokovic then had his number and so his self-belief/confidence was eroded a little more, That aura of invincibility that had players quaking in their boots when they stepped on court was also slipping so opponents feeling better about their chances could also exploit his dip and so it began to snowball and defeats came to lower ranked players.

No-one denies the decline...it's impossible for everything to stay the same over time. Some areas get better, some worse...it's a matter of where the balance point is. In Fed's case more things have slipped than got better...and some of it in my opinion is self induced, not just down to Father Time. Like I say after 2008 his training schedule slipped and the muscle started to go but his talent kept him going...only Nadal would likely have kept him from winning RG and Wimb 2009 but he wasn't around.

My question is simply if he's going to dedicate himself physically why couldn't he develop the physique of Robredo - lean and muscled - than end up like a Kenyan runner? Tennis is essentially an explosive power sport...it's not pure marathon stuff. In juniors they look for the explosive talents, the sprinters, the highest and longest jumpers, the quickest feet...not the fittest boys...as a marker of future potential.

[quote="FedsFan"][quote="JuliusHMarx"]

FedsFan wrote:With Novak struggling these days and Murray being a question mark when he sees Nadal over the net, I think Nadal may pass Federer sooner than most people think. If Fed was closer to 20 then may be not but 12 to 17 is not impossible.

On clay, yes Murray and indeed Novak, just like Roger - will always be playing catch up. However, maybe we can remember that on hard courts, Murray matches Nadal 2-2 in slams. In addition, I think that most would agree that now Murray is better on grass

The opposition, to Roger, isn't in Rafa's class -but it's pretty impressive

you just don't know what you are talking about do you? poor child, what coach..........

No idea who that is targeted at...who's talking about coaches?

Lydian is right to point out that he never recaptured effortless physical prowess after early 2008. It wasn't a collapse but it was then that he started losing regularly to ordinary players, nothing whatsoever to do with Nadal or Djokovic. In that year he lost to Blake and Roddick, two of his favourite punchbags and that never stopped.

As for age of other players, none of them have anything like his mileage, either in matches, high stress moments or perpetual expectation. Comparisons to Robredo or Haas are meaningless. In those terms Federer has gone through what it would take Tommy to get to 40 to match.

It's not fashionable to say this but after losing three sets to Robredo, who got three sets in the previous ten matches, it really is well past time to drop the daft idea that anything in the last few years has been close to his peak.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I have a different theory to Roger's decline. I do not deny he is not as fit as he once was but I believe Roger was adamant his back was fine going into this tournament and his display against Nadal recently backed this up and he had no problems in his previous matches here. I say he is merely suffering from a total lack of belief and confidence brought about by many recent losses against players he used to beat for fun. I liken it to a punch-drunk boxer who has taken one blow too many. It means that if Roger meets a player who can be competitive from the get go and pressurises him then the doubts and lack of confidence leads him to miss shots or under hit them screwing his game plan. He still desires to play at the top and still believes he can but when the chips are down the self-belief and lack of confidence inhibits his game far too much.

Self-confidence is missing now, yes, but that's the result of the initial decline, not the cause of it.

lydian wrote:No idea who that is targeted at...who's talking about coaches?

The bus driver (geddit?)

JuliusHMarx wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I have a different theory to Roger's decline. I do not deny he is not as fit as he once was but I believe Roger was adamant his back was fine going into this tournament and his display against Nadal recently backed this up and he had no problems in his previous matches here. I say he is merely suffering from a total lack of belief and confidence brought about by many recent losses against players he used to beat for fun. I liken it to a punch-drunk boxer who has taken one blow too many. It means that if Roger meets a player who can be competitive from the get go and pressurises him then the doubts and lack of confidence leads him to miss shots or under hit them screwing his game plan. He still desires to play at the top and still believes he can but when the chips are down the self-belief and lack of confidence inhibits his game far too much.

Self-confidence is missing now, yes, but that's the result of the initial decline, not the cause of it.

Yes, apparently it was only confidence that kept him ahead of Brands, Robredo, Stakovsky etc.

I think Nadal is Murrays final question mark, lets see if he answers it. I am very keen to see how that match would go down, hopefully Muzza can take him. That being said, Novak is quietly making his way through and I just have a feeling...

Yes lydian but I believe mental flaws are more damaging than physical weaknesses now. I mean Roger himself was saying he was feeling sharp and back was as good as it has been for a while going into the Robredo match yet the lack of confidence and self-belief was evident. I can't remember him ever passing up so many break points. He was making makeable shots look difficult and he really did look lost. Physically he was still chasing down balls though admittedly a tad slower getting to them but still the touch, the accuracy and the belief just was not there.

Federer hasn't been the same since the beginning of 08, its pretty impressive he's won 5 slams since then. The back was seriously starting to affect him, the match with Murray the Masters Cup 08 he was so stiff. So much is said of Nadals knees, mentioning Rogers back and people done seem to except too much as a viable excuse

That being said, some of the break points he missed wernt to do with injury or age exactly, as he was just making really bizarre decisions. Maybe I guess he was so desperate to get them because he was under pressure and his confidence is shot. However, his confidence is shot because he isn't as good anymore. One has to come before the other

CAS wrote:I think Nadal is Murrays final question mark, lets see if he answers it. I am very keen to see how that match would go down, hopefully Muzza can take him. That being said, Novak is quietly making his way through and I just have a feeling...

I maintain that the winner of this event will be whoever get's the furthest between Nole, Murray and Berdy

[quote="lydian"]

My question is simply if he's going to dedicate himself physically why couldn't he develop the physique of Robredo -quote]

It's just that the quote sounds seriously surreal (stupid?) to me. To develop into Robredo physique? ......Enough for me.

lydian wrote:I don't know, 17 is a really big number and Nadal has missed big chunks out of his career through injury. It's not impossible but its a really big ask. Right now he's on 12 and we have no way of knowing if he'll win another slam or those knees crumble again.

TRuffin, nice points. I can't comment on what you say about him having worked out recently. It would be good if you could post links, etc, as I haven't heard any of that although it may well be true of course. Lets assume it is true...perhaps since Gstaad Federer has been working out and losss the 6 kilos. Well that can be a concern in that he's also loss a lot of muscle density along with the fat...muscle gets burnt before fat in the body, its actually really hard as you get older to maintain high muscle density whilst staying ripped/thin. It could be possible that Fed looks so gaunt because he's lost density and fat, leaving him aerobically fitter but weaker than before. This would still affect his shots in longer rally's which is what I saw when I watched him yesterday. Something physically simply doesn't add up for me...something doesn't look/feel right, and lets face it he's completely different from his physique of 5-6 years ago. Unsurprisingly his slam count increase started to go down after that too...I actually think the brief mono phase knocked him off his training stride and he never recovered his physique in quite the same way afterwards...although his sheer speed/talent made up any shortfall back then too. Now he's lost some speed, some technique and he's not as strong...leading to loss of confidence and panicking morein crunch moments. If he's putting the hard work in then I'm not sure it's giving the right results physically, he's too lean.

The Cahill stuff was during his 1st or  2nd round match on ESPN2 and then on the after match visit that Federer made to the ESPN set..  Fed's fans post tons of practice pictures on his website forum and there was one in particular of his back while he was sitting without his shirt on that some commented that it showed a marked difference and I was shocked as well at how ripped his lower back was...   So far  I haven't come across it, but I did copy some pictures of his front that I think give a similar indication...  It's certainly a more ripped look than those pictures you posted in that thread comparing him at different ages...

Now if I can actually figure out how to insert the pictures...

https://2img.net/h/i1366.photobucket.com/albums/r777/mpdemetrejeweler/fed/federerfront_zps22543903.jpg