The Australian Open Draw

I believe will be out just after midnight tonight.

I'm hoping as usual for Nadal and Federer to be on opposite sides. Poor Federer has had more than his fair share of bad luck drawing Nadal in the quarters. First because Nadal'r ranking had dropped and now because his has slipped a little. I would also quite like to see a Djokovic/Federer semi. It's been a while...

A Federer v. Nadal match at any stage of the tournament would be dull, given how one-sided their matches are nowadays. I would like to see Federer v Novak in the quarters. The earlier Fed plays him the closer he may make it.

With Murray not up to speed it will be intriguing to see where the likes of DP and Berdych are placed. A SF place looks more accessible for the second tier than might have been the case in previous years.

I want to see great matches, so hope that the big guys get players they traditionally have difficultly putting away. For example it'd be more interesting to see Berdy in Murray's quarter than Novak's, and I'd like to see Novak v Stan or Delpo.

A draw that gives a few box office matches before the semis is what I'm after.

Evans wont be in it

Court speed at Australian Open tennis unchanged, says tournament director Craig Tiley

January 6, 2014....Linda Pearce...Sports writer for The Age

Anyone expecting lightning-fast Australian Open courts will be disappointed, according to tournament director Craig Tiley, who has denied that a quicker version of Plexicushion has been ordered - or delivered - for next week's grand slam.

Roger Federer, Lleyton Hewitt and Marin Cilic, as well as Davis Cup captain Pat Rafter, are among the players at this week's Brisbane International to testify that the speed of the Queensland Tennis Centre courts has risen significantly this year. Cilic, indeed, said they were the slickest he had experienced anywhere in more than 12 months.

"But, if so, that is Brisbane", said Tiley, who insisted nothing has altered at Melbourne Park. A modified Wilson ball was introduced last year with a tighter weave to improve longevity, but any major change in court speed is, apparently, unlikely.

''We've repeated what we did in 2013,'' said Tiley, pointing to the heatwave conditions and covered court in Brisbane, as well as the extended time given to the courts to ''plateau'' after their annual resurface, as contributing factors there. ''We didn't get that feedback at Hopman Cup, which is also the exact same surface.''

Defending champion Novak Djokovic on Saturday became the first player to hit this season on Rod Laver Arena.... Tiley said the world No. 2 had not commented on the speed of the court, pace has been a recurring discussion point elsewhere in the past week.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/court-speed-at-australian-open-tennis-unchanged-says-tournament-director-craig-tiley-20140105-30c1e.html#ixzz2pYI6CQ1T

Guess I am most interested in positioning of Federer, Del Potro & Berdych in terms of 1/4's with which Top 4 seed.

Then whether Murray or Ferrer gets Nadal or Djokovic.

Agree that the earlier Federer would get Djokovic, the better, but 1/4's at earliest, so he'll have 4 rounds in by then - might be too big an ask?

Dimitrov, Tsonga, Raonic & Isner - also interesting to see where they "land;" that said if Isner gets taken to 4 sets a couple of times, his chances go down dramatically. If he gest through to a higher seed with 3 set victories, then it gets interesting with him.

Draw very soon - Rock on! Let's get this dancing started, Matilda!

Seeing as it's very unlikely Murray will reach the later rounds, the 5-8 seeds will want to be in with him. If the Fed is in Murray's quarter and Djokovic's half then I imagine he'll fancy his chances at reaching the final, unless he draws Hewitt first round!!

That's a shame about Evans as he had a huge chance of reaching the main draw.

I just hope Rafa gets some of the few players with the cojones to have a go at him: Isner, Ernie, JMDP, Andy.

It will probably be the usual procession of SHBHs and Spaniards though.

Danny_1982 wrote:I'd like to see Novak v Stan or Delpo.

My nerves won't take another one!

Can I just point out that the draw is always rigged in the favour of the player you don't like and against your favourite player - regardless of who those players are

I knew it was rigged!

I believe Nike is to blame.

HM Murdoch
"I just hope Rafa gets some of the few players with the cojones to have a go at him: Isner, Ernie, JMDP, Andy."

I presume you dont mean Andy Murray, his record against Nadal is pretty abysmal across all surfaces. I dont think Gulbis has beaten him either but i get your point with him that he tends to make it competitive.

I think if the top 8 were to get to quarters, these would best match ups (Ferrer has a shocking record against Federer but even he might fancy his chances against the current Federer):

Nadal vs Del potro
Murray vs Berdych
Djokovic vs Wawrinka
Federer vs Ferrer

slashermcguirk wrote:HM Murdoch
"I just hope Rafa gets some of the few players with the cojones to have a go at him: Isner, Ernie, JMDP, Andy."

I presume you dont mean Andy Murray, his record against Nadal is pretty abysmal across all surfaces. I dont think Gulbis has beaten him either but i get your point with him that he tends to make it competitive.

How is a 5-6 H2H on HC abysmal?

JuliusHMarx wrote:

slashermcguirk wrote:HM Murdoch
"I just hope Rafa gets some of the few players with the cojones to have a go at him: Isner, Ernie, JMDP, Andy."

I presume you dont mean Andy Murray, his record against Nadal is pretty abysmal across all surfaces. I dont think Gulbis has beaten him either but i get your point with him that he tends to make it competitive.

How is a 5-6 H2H on HC abysmal?

Murray's 5 wins don't count Julius. I thought you'd been here long enough to understand that. Rafa was injured/tired/tanking for every single one of them.

In matches where both were trying and fully fit, it's 6-0 to Rafa.

I hope they meet in Mebourne, though it's been that long I'm wondering if they'll ever play again!

I'd love to see a Rafa v Andy match but only if Andy is fit.

If he's fit, I think there could be fireworks. Ideally I'd like Andy to do a Lendl and whack the ball at Rafa but I'd settle for a great match!

If Andy's not up to speed though, it could be a bit rubbish.

Yeah good point Murdoch. If he's wilting in the second set vs Mayer last week, he's unlikely to be in shape to face Rafa a couple of weeks later.

LuvSports! wrote: Court speed at Australian Open tennis unchanged, says tournament director Craig Tiley

January 6, 2014....Linda Pearce...Sports writer for The Age

Anyone expecting lightning-fast Australian Open courts will be disappointed, according to tournament director Craig Tiley, who has denied that a quicker version of Plexicushion has been ordered - or delivered - for next week's grand slam.

Roger Federer, Lleyton Hewitt and Marin Cilic, as well as Davis Cup captain Pat Rafter, are among the players at this week's Brisbane International to testify that the speed of the Queensland Tennis Centre courts has risen significantly this year. Cilic, indeed, said they were the slickest he had experienced anywhere in more than 12 months.

"But, if so, that is Brisbane", said Tiley, who insisted nothing has altered at Melbourne Park. A modified Wilson ball was introduced last year with a tighter weave to improve longevity, but any major change in court speed is, apparently, unlikely.

''We've repeated what we did in 2013,'' said Tiley, pointing to the heatwave conditions and covered court in Brisbane, as well as the extended time given to the courts to ''plateau'' after their annual resurface, as contributing factors there. ''We didn't get that feedback at Hopman Cup, which is also the exact same surface.''

Defending champion Novak Djokovic on Saturday became the first player to hit this season on Rod Laver Arena.... Tiley said the world No. 2 had not commented on the speed of the court, pace has been a recurring discussion point elsewhere in the past week.

But the balls are reported to be livelier which may make as big a difference as speeding the court up. We'll just have to wait and see...either way its not going to turn AO into pre-2001 USO!

Yep I'd love to see Andy vs Rafa...and oddly Fed vs Djok which is always an interesting match too. But that's assuming they all get to the semis!

Monfils & Hewitt may be ones to watch this year...although slower courts than Qatar/Brisbane are not ideal for either.

Well it certainly helped Feds at the FO'11, nadal struggled, and djoko and murray complained about them. Not sure it will help feds much now though.

Yep the issue is bigger than balls for Fed...he simply doesn't move as well as he used to, plus his BH is still a relative weakness vs the very best now...has been for a while. Plus he pulls the trigger too early in ralleys when out of position, its like he panics more than he used to do...always been an inherent issue for Fed. He could make the semis with a good draw tho' but I have a feeling he'll go early. Yes those FO11 balls were weird...a bad batch (overly hard) I suspect as they didnt go back to that type again. But to be fair, Isner played lights out that day and has beaten Fed in 5 sets on clay too (DC match). When a tall guy serves big on clay it doesn't matter about the balls as they just skid through on the top dressing rather than kick up...the same effect Goran used to get as well. Big servers can do well on clay...remember Verkerk getting to the final years ago?

The problem with balls at AO though is that AO is so sand-paint heavy now that less fluffy balls (livelier) will soon fluff up after 1-2 games with the surface being so rough. Unless they are switching to ITF type 1 ball...which we don't know. AO surface surface has always been slow, always will be. Hewitt asked for it to be speeded up throughout his career but they never did so don't see why they'll start speeding it up now.

AO should be slow.

It's USO that needs to speed up!

Agree...infact I liked the old Rebound Ace surface, made it completely different to USO.

I am not suggesting Murray couldnt challenge Nadal but his record against him in slams is pretty shocking. He did beat a fully fit Nadal at the US open but his win in the Aussie open was definitley as much to do with injury, no denying that.

When was the last time Murray beat him in a slam, must have been at least 3- 4 years ago. could be wrong though

No it wasn't that is such a fallacy! Absolute nonsense, I hate it when fans do this. I am huge Federer fan but Murray deserved the win, no denying that...
Murray was clearly the better player that day and Nadal was 2 sets down when he pulled up.

slashermcguirk wrote:I am not suggesting Murray couldnt challenge Nadal but his record against him in slams is pretty shocking. He did beat a fully fit Nadal at the US open but his win in the Aussie open was definitley as much to do with injury, no denying that.

When was the last time Murray beat him in a slam, must have been at least 3- 4 years ago. could be wrong though

It's 2 and a half years since Rafa beat Murray in a slam

slashermcguirk wrote:I am not suggesting Murray couldnt challenge Nadal but his record against him in slams is pretty shocking. He did beat a fully fit Nadal at the US open but his win in the Aussie open was definitley as much to do with injury, no denying that.

When was the last time Murray beat him in a slam, must have been at least 3- 4 years ago. could be wrong though

I deny that, Nadal Denied that, most professionals deny that - so if fact most people deny that

Nadal was not injured in the first 2 sets and lost them

First of all, I have nothing against Murray. I do remember watching that match though and Nadal definitely seemed off, was really poor and his movememt was not like normal.

Getting away from that didnt they play in 3 slam matches in 2011, two of which would be Murrays favourites at Wimbleon and US open and Nadal won reasonably comfortably. I dont think Nadal matches up well for him. I am always surprised by the stat that Murray has only won one set against Nadal in 3 meetings at wimbledon

On a seperate note, shame that Nalbandian has retired......will definitley miss him in the slams. Also the continued absence of Robin Soderling, amazing how he never got over that glandular fever, must be 2-3 years since he was forced off the tour. Who knows, we would probably be speaking of him as a contendor over the next couple of weeks. What might have been for the big Swede !

Riskysports wrote:

slashermcguirk wrote:I am not suggesting Murray couldnt challenge Nadal but his record against him in slams is pretty shocking. He did beat a fully fit Nadal at the US open but his win in the Aussie open was definitley as much to do with injury, no denying that.

When was the last time Murray beat him in a slam, must have been at least 3- 4 years ago. could be wrong though

I deny that, Nadal Denied that, most professionals deny that - so if fact most people deny that

Nadal was not injured in the first 2 sets and lost them

Nadal got injured during the 2nd set. He said so after the match. Nadal lost the 2nd set on a tie break and obviously would have had a better chance of winning a tie break if he wasn't injured   He retired in the third set and it was a five set match so there is no argument.

Murray's win over Nadal in the US Open was one of the worst GS matches Nadal has ever played. After the first days play Nadal said he didn't think it would be possible to play any worse...

But then there are some that even think Murray's win over Nadal in Rotterdam was not due to injury.

hawkeye wrote:

Riskysports wrote:

slashermcguirk wrote:I am not suggesting Murray couldnt challenge Nadal but his record against him in slams is pretty shocking. He did beat a fully fit Nadal at the US open but his win in the Aussie open was definitley as much to do with injury, no denying that.

When was the last time Murray beat him in a slam, must have been at least 3- 4 years ago. could be wrong though

I deny that, Nadal Denied that, most professionals deny that - so if fact most people deny that

Nadal was not injured in the first 2 sets and lost them

Nadal got injured during the 2nd set. He said so after the match.

Well, if Nadal said it, it must be true. On the other hand if Uncle Toni also said it, then we can't be sure.

So that's 3 Murray wins over Rafa we've put an * against already!   

Come on, only two more to go before we can change the tight HC H2H into a 6-0 whitewash!

Oh wait... I've just been informed Murray had injuries in all 6 of his defeats. I guess the H2H is 0-0.

They only count if a player is playing his best tennis. In which case, given that they haven't played in the last couple of years - it really is 0-0!

To be honest I'm more interested in the early round matches, hoping for some good match ups before we have to look to the semis and finals. Shame Evans didn't make it through also.

Normally I would be interested to see where the likes of Federer and Murray end up in the draw but with regards to the latters injuries and the formers form its not quite the same.

I'm interested to see where Del Potro and Wawrinka end up in the draw. They seem the more danger players if they pick up where they left off last season.

Danny_1982 wrote:So that's 3 Murray wins over Rafa we've put an * against already!   

At least  

lydian wrote:To be honest I'm more interested in the early round matches, hoping for some good match ups before we have to look to the semis and finals. Shame Evans didn't make it through also.

I just checked his score before I went to work and it was 4-4 but he'd only dropped one point on serve (a double fault). When I checked later he had only won one more game. Seemed to drown in a tide of unforced errors if the stats are reliable. A real shame as that was as easy a set of qualies matches as you could get.

Absolutely BS, I thought he'd make it through too. Yep UEs killed him if you look at the stats of the match ... (Nicely laid out by AO) http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/scores/stats/day2/11222ms.html ... he made 30 unforced errors in a shortish match of 64 61. In particular his returning was poor and FH spraying all over. Just a bad day at the office. Opportunity wasted. His ranking remains around #150.

Just looking at the records of the top guys at the AO...

Rafa: 35-7
Novak: 39-5
David: 28-11
Andy: 29-8
JMDP: 16-7
Roger: 68-10

That's a lot of match wins between them! And nine titles to boot. Novak's win % is insane, amazing how dominant he's been here in the last few years. Even when he was a kid he did pretty well (R16 in 2007, I think?). Rafa has those kinds of stats everywhere, and Fed's record speaks for itself. Everyone outside that group is definitely up against it.

Stat: Out of the 128 men in the singles draw, only 4 have been number 1 in the world.

...and only 3 have previously won AO?

That's quite the amazing statistic, TSJ. The big three and Hewitt? A few more AO stats...

Djokovic: Chasing 5 AO titles (would stand alone), and 4 straight titles (extends own record). Also going for 15th consecutive slam SF, 19th consecutive QF. If he makes the final, he'll be tied 5th (Sampras) on the AO match wins list with 45.

Nadal: Trying to be the first man to win every slam at least twice, and to tie Sampras on the slam total with 14. Will move to 7th on match wins at the AO if he makes the SF. Looking for 7th consecutive QF at the AO, if you take aside his absence last year.

Murray: Has made the final in three of the last four years. Seeking 5th consecutive SF at the AO, could go as high as 10th on the match win count.

Federer: Like Djokovic, attempting to win his fifth title. Trying to make his 11th (!) consecutive SF at the AO. Currently tops win charts with 68 wins (Edberg, 56).

Exactly Silver + lydian.

It's turning into a bit of a nightmare for poor old Roger.

And Djokovic has a lovely draw there.

Fed's draw: WC, Stepanek, Verdasco, Tsonga, Murray/Isner, Nadal, Djokovic

That may well be the hardest slam draw for a top player in the last decade. Ouch. Actually, perhaps not - the only saving grace is that Murray is coming back from injury. Otherwise, it's brutal!

That means Novak must be liking his draw...

Nadal's Quarter
Djokovic's Quarter
Murray's Quarter
Ferrer's Quarter

Turbot will fancy his chances after that tumultuous DC win!

Nadal has Tomic in first round.

Nadal's draw isn't easy either. Tomic 1st round!

Possible Wawrinka-Djokovic repeat.