Sorry Federer fans, your man is gonna lose

First topic message reminder :

Hi,

thought Id register after years of following this board and the old 606.

I haven't got an axe to grind against Roger Federer. I think he's the most talented and varied player on tour and historically has played the highest level of tennis we've ever seen.

However, he has almost zero chance of beating Rafa tomorrow.

It's laudable that Fed fans are so doggedly supportive of their man (not necessarily on this board, but other forums) but I think a dose of realism is in order. Whenever this matchup occurs we hear the same recycled reasons for why Federer can win but the outcome is nearly always the same.

Federer's had so many close-but-no-cigar moments against Nadal in the last 5-6 years that this match is a virtual formality.

He could have evened the score at 1 set all in the 2008 WIM if he'd held serve.

He could have led by a set in the 2009 AO if he'd held serve.

He could have led Nadal by a set in the 2011 FO if he'd held serve.

He could have led by 2 sets in the 2012 AO if he'd held serve.

Federer had only been broken twice in the grass season in the lead up to the 2008 final; Fed still lost.

Nadal played more than 5 hours in the semi final while Fed had an easier time in the earlier semi in 2009; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy who stopped Novak's run in 2011, while Nadal went to 5 sets in the first round, and was a point away from losing a 3rd set several times against Anujar in the second; Fed still lost.

Federer was the guy on the winning streak at the start of 2012 after dominating the indoor 2011 season, and after thrashing Nadal in the WTF, and not losing a set en route to their meeting (compared to the 1 Nadal lost to Berdych in the round before); Fed still lost.

These are just a few examples; there are many more.

I agree that Federer's playing well (compared to 2013), and that Nadal's form has dropped in the last couple of rounds (but was awesome against Monfils in night conditions), but there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that's rarely mattered in the past so I fail to see why it should matter tomorrow. Indeed, Fed was playing even better at the AUS open in 2012, while Rafa was arguably playing worse, and still lost. In the two years since then Fed has gotten slower while Rafa has maintained his level. The slower night conditions will make it very difficult for Federer to get the ball past Rafa.

Oh and by the way, Rafa was practising without any tape today   

Anyway, sorry about the long post

Rafa in 3 tight sets.

Rafa to beat Warwinka in 3 for slam number 14.

I am really not sure why everyone is assuming that Federer will lose tomorrow. Rafa with or without blisters knows he will have a fight on his hands.. I personally have not seen Federer play so well for a very long time. I really believe he has a chance to beat Rafa and I believe Rafa believes it too.

Ok, I confess.

I've fabricated that Federer is 32. I've made it up that he's been behind David Ferrer in the rankings for a year or so. I invented the fact that barring an amazing AO he's down to #8 now, behind players he used to own.

Oh I do feel cleansed, they say confession us good for the soul!

Lionel Hutz wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Oh barry, I didn't say age wasn't an impediment of course it is. I just have been saying that I have heard that excuse now for 5 years or so and that makes the people saying it back in 08 and 09 look rather silly that today Fed is in a grandslam semi and they have been use that excuse now for over half a decade. You claim fed has been in slow declined since 2007 but fail to mention how much better his 3 toughest rivals Novak, Nadal, and MUrray have been in that time period. It all comes down to Fed's age and could not possibly be a result of tougher competition as well. I am sure Fed is not nearly as good as he used to be, but the slow rot argument is belied by your own analysis showing that fed has won 5 slams in the so-called slow rot period and was ranked in the top 3 up till last year. Fed fans have been using his age as an excuse long before it was valid, sure any athlete at 32 is not as good as he was at 25 this is not a newflash to me or to anyone else.

My point stands when it comes to excuse making: ie (mono, age, slow courts, big balls, luxilon strings, too much technology, PED using opposition, bad back) Fed fans complaining about other people's excuse making is pretty funny.

The difference is that those are not excuses for an individual loss. Those are part of the explanation for Federer's overall decline in performance. That's a very different thing

Really because after Fed lost to Berdych I remember a lot of the crusaders against excuse making claiming his back was the issue back in that wimbeldon. One man's explanation is another man's excuse. I personally don't have a problem with putting matches and events into a context and even talking about factors or one would call excuses to explain a result. It is part of analysis of a match and valid no matter who does it in defense of which player. What else would we talk about. I just think it is amusing when Federer fans take a holier than thou approach regarding excuse making because you guys are probably the kings. Following, 08 wimbeldon I heard everything short of global warming being attributed as to way Nadal surpassed Federer.

Who cares for tomorrow. Sex is good and always will be. Screw this Ice Skating crap sports, TV sux.

Jahu wrote:Who cares for tomorrow. Sex is good and always will be. Screw this Ice Skating crap sports, TV sux.

Errr.....?

I love you all, JHM is jealous

Djoko is GOAT.

Move along now, nothing to see here....except Fed adding another GSSSSSSSSSSSS

Off to bed. Night all.

For Jahus sake i really hope Feds does win or his comedown is gonna be heeelll...

socal1976 wrote:

Lionel Hutz wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Oh barry, I didn't say age wasn't an impediment of course it is. I just have been saying that I have heard that excuse now for 5 years or so and that makes the people saying it back in 08 and 09 look rather silly that today Fed is in a grandslam semi and they have been use that excuse now for over half a decade. You claim fed has been in slow declined since 2007 but fail to mention how much better his 3 toughest rivals Novak, Nadal, and MUrray have been in that time period. It all comes down to Fed's age and could not possibly be a result of tougher competition as well. I am sure Fed is not nearly as good as he used to be, but the slow rot argument is belied by your own analysis showing that fed has won 5 slams in the so-called slow rot period and was ranked in the top 3 up till last year. Fed fans have been using his age as an excuse long before it was valid, sure any athlete at 32 is not as good as he was at 25 this is not a newflash to me or to anyone else.

My point stands when it comes to excuse making: ie (mono, age, slow courts, big balls, luxilon strings, too much technology, PED using opposition, bad back) Fed fans complaining about other people's excuse making is pretty funny.

The difference is that those are not excuses for an individual loss. Those are part of the explanation for Federer's overall decline in performance. That's a very different thing

Really because after Fed lost to Berdych I remember a lot of the crusaders against excuse making claiming his back was the issue back in that wimbeldon. One man's explanation is another man's excuse. I personally don't have a problem with putting matches and events into a context and even talking about factors or one would call excuses to explain a result. It is part of analysis of a match and valid no matter who does it in defense of which player. What else would we talk about. I just think it is amusing when Federer fans take a holier than thou approach regarding excuse making because you guys are probably the kings. Following, 08 wimbeldon I heard everything short of global warming being attributed as to way Nadal surpassed Federer.

I think you'll find that it was Federer who cited the back problems. Saying that it caused him big problems in the earlier rounds (v Falla iirc).

And that's unusual. I haven't heard other examples unless he himself says it.

I'm so glad Federer is showing some good form and going deep in a slam. It's like the old days on here.

Socal's moaning about Federer fans, BB's somehow provoking dissent without actually saying anything factually incorrect, JHM's adopted a tone in the hinterland between a gentle joshing and a proper dig... I feel positively nostalgic!

HM Murdoch wrote:I'm so glad Federer is showing some good form and going deep in a slam. It's like the old days on here.

Socal's moaning about Federer fans, BB's somehow provoking dissent without actually saying anything factually incorrect, JHM's adopted a tone in the hinterland between a gentle joshing and a proper dig... I feel positively nostalgic!

It's kind of a talent.

I owe it all to my Dad. We've only had one argument. It started when I was 12 and we're still at it.....    (think the World of him though ).

I think the big question that hangs over the match tomorrow is:

If Roger wins, whose box is Severin Luthi going to sit in in the final?

Federer is playing some amazing stuff at the moment. He won't recover the consistency of his prime but I believe on a given day, he can recreate the same level of tennis at his prime. He's admitted to being significantly more explosive in his movement than much of last season so it's possible he can improve his physical level even after 30. His counterpart on the women's tour Serena has arguably played the best tennis of her career since she hit 30 - even better than her "Serena Slam" years around a decade ago.

Making out Federer to be some kind of geriatric because he's past 30 pretty much makes everything he does a win-win. He wins, and he's doing it inspite of being an old man and he's showing up the young guns. He loses and it's still a victory because he's an old man.

Well the result is 99% predictable that Rafa gonna win in 4 sets.

Rafa loves to win and Fed loves to compete, I will wake up 3.30 AM to watch the match and see Fed lose once again, I am starting to become a Fed fan now, its not about losing, its about how you fight inspite of losing repeatedly, Fed is not giving up even at 32/33, I will wake up in the midnight and support him silently from my bed and when the song is over I will go for sleep peacefully.

What I liked about Fed in this particular tourney is his mind to fight, look at the horror of the draw yet he is alive to fight another day and today is his biggest horror in Rafa.

Go Fed , get thrashed but never stop trying, bring your boogey man down some day if not today.  

Boogey man? This is tennis not dancing.  

My guess is his Boogey man must be Robin Windsor.   

At the risk of stating the obvious, Federer needs to serve well - to get upwards of 65% of first serves in to stand a chance of winning this match. Nadal will eat up a lot of the 2nd serves. Other than that, he needs to keep focused on the breakpoints - Nadal is probably the greatest ever at fending off breakpoints and when Federer gets an opportunity he needs to keep patient and avoid over-doing it (in many of his matches with Nadal he snatches at the ball, rushing it).

What Djokovic has always been good at it in his match-ups with Nadal is beating him at his own game - i.e. soaking up pressure and quickly turning defence into attack. Federer can defend very well but doesn't always execute well against Nadal in those types of situations - I would like to see him use the short angles which can be v effective.

That said, I think Nadal's going to win this one, again - but possibly in 5 sets. Nadal looked v uncomfortable at times in his match with Dimitrov but ultimately did manage to raise his game on the big points.