OWGR Week 5

Don't have any projections yet... except is easy to see Rory would move to #4 with win this week... and a decent finish for Stenson moves him ahead of Adam Scott for #2.   After two rounds Rory's leading in Dubai with Stenson in position to challenge over the weekend.  And regardless of where he finishes, Mr. "Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with my driver" Tiger Woods will remain #1.

I'll have more detailed "placing" projections later.

But looking forward... word is now coming out the Rory might be out of the WGC-Match play as well.  If that were to be the case, it could now be 5 of the OWGR top-6 missing the event (Tiger, Scott, Mickelson & Rose being the others).  A perfect field of the top-64 ranked players would yield a field strength of 78... but with those 5 missing it would fall to a 70 (assuming all other eligible players play).  If any one of those players decide to play... it would be back up to a 72.

The 3 WGC's played in the U.S. have obviously been highly regarded by the players as evidenced by their past participation rates.  But this situation illustrates if a WGC is played on a course the players don't like, they'll take a flyer.  As far as I know, Adam Scott is the only one of the 5 to come out and admit he's avoiding because of the course... this from a GC article: “Mostly based on the course, for sure,” Adam Scott recently said of his decision. “My record isn’t very good around there and I haven’t enjoyed playing there the last few years, so it was a pretty easy one.”  Sure Phil (family time) and Rose (injury) might be given a pass if they skip.  And while Rose still might play, he's given no indication he's willing to rush his return to play... and based on his mediocre results on this course... it's easy to see why.  

But there may be other factors.  Accenture is definitely out as sponsor, and there's been some scuttlebutt the venue itself  may not be interested in continuing to host.  If that is the case, then why should a player who already doesn't care for the place invest any more time and energy trying to figure it out?  

As for Dove Mountain... seems the course has been feeling a bit of a "hit" from the criticisms of players, perhaps feeling that's no help in selling expensive property and memberships.  Then add in that big ticket sponsors can't like the prospect of having a "dead weekend" should the top players not advance.  And that puts the future of this event into question.  So with a sponsor needed.. WHO.... if they're moving WHERE...  and more importantly the question might be IF this event will even continue to exist as we've known it in the past. I haven't heard a peep of "informed" speculation from anyone who actually knows something.. perhaps we'll here more in a few weeks.

Alanis Morisette was right . . . . . . ironic that the US best are abandoning a US-based "World" event, a jagged little pill for Finchem. (Though not sure the Tour cares much for matchplay events either.)

Cancelling this tournament would however remove the guarantee of the single most compelling day's golf of the year, the Wednesday of the Match Play.

Love it when basic supply and demand come into play. Crummy course, very iffy weather and no surprise to me some of the top players are skipping it. Good for them.

Kwin, it may be the most compelling day of golf to a few, but not most. One and done for half the field, lack of "feature groups" for the networks to key off of ... if "no names" make it to the weekend and there are nothing but blow outs ... well, then it's just a dog to broadcast; even if they played this event at Cypress Point. I'm guessing once a year is plenty for the players and the tour.

Don't you think the first round is great? Surprised. Surely that's not a "dog" to broadcast? Must admit, I love the whole thing except the 3rd place nonsense.


Anyway, "once a year is plenty for the players and the tour", but take this away and you no longer have that "once a year".

Not sure ironic is the right word, and I can't see any scenario where Finchem would be all to pleased with these developments. Main reason... the Tour wants control over everything they can control... and even though the 3 WGC's here are technically presented by the IFGT... in practice they're the PGA Tour's.

Also... Tucson has been a great host city with a terrific volunteer base over the years... I don't think Finchem wants to lose that. But it's looking more and more that if this event has a future, it might not be in Tuscon and/or in this spot on the schedule... and that REALLY messes with the schedule. Ideas I've heard discussed is to move this as the MP back to Cali somewhere (back to Carlsbad maybe) or move it somewhere else on the schedule (which means it could be anywhere) and revive the Tucson Open in this spot. The Conquistadors are in place to do the latter pretty easily I would think.

Imagine the Conquistadors are still pretty miffed at losing the old Tucson Open. Would jump at the chance to revive it.

Has nature been especially unkind to this event? Or is it sited at too high an altitude? I can recall the old Senior Tour Tradition (good lord, just realised Swampy's turned 70) being snowed out, but the Phoenix Open almost always steers clear of trouble. What about Whispering Rock?

'Course, an obvious replacement location would be in one of the Emirates, not including Islington. What they'd have to pony up in prize-money they'd save in appearance fees.

The only ironic thing about Alanis Morristte is that her song contained absolutely no irony in it.

They should look at a round robin stage early on, to ensure that every player gets to play at least twice.

Whisper Rock, with 2 courses, could certainly host. PGA almost surely wants to keep this stateside given all the corporate goodwill built to date and the better live TV opportunity.

IMO.... IF the WGC Match Play were to be moved out of the U.S.... there's still the issues of getting the top non-dual PGA/Euro Tour guys to play.   UNLESS it's scheduled when they can all attend.  

No way the PGAT would agree to January and the Middle East... but maybe the week after the Open Championship, when all the top PGAT players are across the pond anyway. But maybe in a more "tax friendly" country in Europe instead of the UK.

The other option I think might work would be to pair it with the the WGC-HSBC.  Right now you can't get all the full time PGAT players to the HSBC... but if say there was a new WGC-Australia two weeks after the HSBC then you'd have the same situation over there we now have here.  IMO two WGC's together like that is the best chance to get them all there.  It's worked pretty well up until now getting "the rest of the world" here for the Match Play and Doral...   That would also give the PGAT a hole between the two to maybe slip in their CIMB Malaysia... and maybe the Euro Tour to conduct one of their "playoff" events.

Shotrock wrote:Whisper Rock, with 2 courses, could certainly host. PGA almost surely wants to keep this stateside given all the corporate goodwill built to date and the better live TV opportunity.

Whisper Rock would be awesome... but I just don't see that happening.  They just don't need it and would be surprised if they want it.  GREAT place though.

Also think raycastleunited has a good point about a possible round robin or I might add even a double elimination. I think a "straight" bracket like they have now is better from a "purist" point of view... but ensuring the top players are present for extra rounds would certainly be attractive to sponsors and TV I would think.  

And here's a wild hair that might be attractive to sponsors and TV...  The PGA Tour used to have an event called the Liggett & Myers Open / U.S. Professional Match Play Championship.   It was a combination two tournaments in one Stroke Play and Match Play.   It only played on the PGA Tour for a few years (71-73).  The way it worked was 8 players were exempt into match play and did not play until the weekend.  The rest of the field would play 2 rounds of stroke play and at that time the top-8 would graduate to join the other 8 in the match play portion.  The 16 for match play would then play 4 rounds over the remaining two days for the bigger purse ($150,000 with $40,000 going to the winner and $5,000 going to first round losers).  Meanwhile... the rest of the field would continue on playing the weekend in stroke play for an entirely different purse ($100,000 with $20,000 going to the winner).

Not in favour of double elimination - takes most of the "on any given day" giant-killing out of the equation.
Not in favour of round robin either - too many dead rubbers and/or chances for manipulation.


I like to see the stars get booted out with their tails between their legs if they play poorly! Course, I'd also like to see a fresh draw after every round. Woods vs Mickelson in Round 2? Bring it on!

kwinigolfer wrote:I like to see the stars get booted out with their tails between their legs if they play poorly!

I certainly agree with that... problem is sponsors don't... I don't "think" it will come to it with the WGC-Match play... but if they can't find a replacement for this very high ticket sponsorship... there's not going to be an event to watch to see stars get booted from.

robopz wrote:...except is easy to see Rory would move to #4 with win this week... 

Huh? Did you forget that Phil is playing?

GPB wrote:

robopz wrote:...except is easy to see Rory would move to #4 with win this week... 

Huh? Did you forget that Phil is playing?

Maybe... or maybe I just didn't expect Phil to break an egg this week... :-)

After Omega Dubai Desert Classic...

The top-10 will be this regardless of the WMPO Outcome
1 - Tiger Woods
2 - Adam Scott
3 - Henrik Stenson
4 - Phil Mickelson
5 - Justin Rose
6 - Zach Johnson
7 - Rory McIlroy
8 - Matt Kuchar
9 - Sergio Garcia
10 - Jason Day

This is the HIGHEST ranking these select players could obtain... pending of course the outcome of the WMPO.

23 - Thomas Bjorn
25 - Jamie Donaldson
30 - Ernie Els
37 - Stephen Gallacher
144 - Emiliano Grillo


Top-64 watch... with potential No-shows for the Match Play, players down to possibly #68 or #69 might be eligible (Rory has confirmed he WILL play). Match Play field is set after next week's AT&T Pebble Beach and ET Joburg Open.... again these are the HIGHEST pending the WMPO.  

57 - Mikko Ilonen
58 - Thorbjorn Olesen
59 - Bernd Wiesberger
60 - Peter Hanson
61 - Marc Leishman
62 - Boo Weekley
63 - Richard Sterne (entered Joburg Open)
64 - Kiradech Aphibarnrat (entered in AT&T Pebble Beach)
65 - Scott Piercy (entered in AT&T Pebble Beach)
66 - Brendon de Jonge
67 - Brooks Koepka
68 - Peter Uihlein
69 - Kim Hyung-sung
70 - Angel Cabrera
71 - Bo Van Pelt  (entered in AT&T Pebble Beach)
72 - George Coetzee (entered Joburg Open)
73 - D.A. Points  (entered in AT&T Pebble Beach)
74 - Koumei Oda
75 - Ryo Ishikawa

I wonder if Uihlein/ Koepka can be a last minute additions to JoBurg Open?

I would like to see them in the match, and it looks unlikely that they will make it if they don't play.

Good day for relatives of famous golfers:

Craig Stadler's son wins WMO
Bernard Gallacher's <edit> son Nephew wins Dubai

This is what the top 100 should look like tomorrow.

1 Tiger Woods . . . 10.406
2 Adam Scott . . . 8.801
3 Henrik Stenson . . . 8.730
4 Phil Mickelson . . . 6.936
5 Justin Rose . . . 6.641
6 Zach Johnson . . . 6.249
7 Rory McIlroy . . . 6.232
8 Matt Kuchar . . . 5.865
9 Sergio Garcia . . . 5.859
10 Jason Day . . . 5.470
11 Steve Stricker . . . 5.218
12 Dustin Johnson . . . 4.791
13 Ian Poulter . . . 4.788
14 Jason Dufner . . . 4.727
15 Graeme McDowell . . . 4.724
16 Jordan Spieth . . . 4.677
17 Brandt Snedeker . . . 4.653
18 Charl Schwartzel . . . 4.475
19 Webb Simpson . . . 4.414
20 Luke Donald . . . 4.207
21 Jim Furyk . . . 4.108
22 Hideki Matsuyama . . . 4.106
23 Keegan Bradley . . . 4.035
24 Thomas Bjorn . . . 3.760
25 Bubba Watson . . . 3.706
26 Graham Delaet . . . 3.508
27 Jamie Donaldson . . . 3.427
28 Ryan Moore . . . 3.296
29 Lee Westwood . . . 3.289
30 Louis Oosthuizen . . . 3.274
31 Victor Dubuisson . . . 3.262
32 Bill Haas . . . 3.261
33 Ernie Els . . . 3.223
34 Hunter Mahan . . . 3.150
35 Jimmy Walker . . . 3.138
36 Nick Watney . . . 2.995
37 Stephen Gallacher . . . 2.861
38 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano . . . 2.800
39 Miguel A Jimenez . . . 2.707
40 Kevin Streelman . . . 2.701
41 Billy Horschel . . . 2.680
42 Harris English . . . 2.653
43 Joost Luiten . . . 2.622
44 Francesco Molinari . . . 2.618
45 Patrick Reed . . . 2.603
46 Branden Grace . . . 2.515
47 Jonas Blixt . . . 2.514
48 Martin Kaymer . . . 2.508
49 Chris Kirk . . . 2.490
50 Matteo Manassero . . . 2.485
===================== Masters/Cadillac Bubble Point
51 Thongchai Jaidee . . . 2.446
52 David Lynn . . . 2.436
53 Rickie Fowler . . . 2.369
54 Pablo Larrazabal . . . 2.332
55 Scott Stallings . . . 2.329
56 Gary Woodland . . . 2.317
57 Thorbjorn Olesen . . . 2.282
58 Kevin Stadler . . . 2.278
59 Mikko Ilonen . . . 2.271
60 Bernd Wiesberger . . . 2.224
61 Peter Hanson . . . 2.199
62 Marc Leishman . . . 2.180
63 Boo Weekley . . . 2.160
64 Richard Sterne . . . 2.106
65 Scott Piercy . . . 2.090
66 Kiradech Aphibarnrat . . . 2.016
67 Brendon de Jonge . . . 1.969
68 Brooks Koepka . . . 1.966
====================== Expected WGC Bubble Point
69 Peter Uihlein . . . 1.953
70 Kim Hyung-sung . . . 1.908
71 Angel Cabrera . . . 1.902
72 Charles Howell-III . . . 1.882
73 Bo Van Pelt . . . 1.876
74 George Coetzee . . . 1.862
75 D.A. Points . . . 1.845
76 Koumei Oda . . . 1.824
77 Roberto Castro . . . 1.783
78 Ryo Ishikawa . . . 1.783
79 Ryan Palmer . . . 1.755
80 Chris Wood . . . 1.734
81 Brett Rumford . . . 1.725
82 Ross Fisher . . . 1.722
83 Michael Thompson . . . 1.709
84 Chris Stroud . . . 1.694
85 Nicolas Colsaerts . . . 1.671
86 Rafael Cabrera Bello . . . 1.670
87 Shingo Katayama . . . 1.659
88 Charley Hoffman . . . 1.644
89 Tim Clark . . . 1.643
90 Matthew Jones . . . 1.635
91 Paul Casey . . . 1.612
92 Martin Laird . . . 1.609
93 Tommy Fleetwood . . . 1.576
94 Luke Guthrie . . . 1.572
95 K.J. Choi . . . 1.571
96 Shane Lowry . . . 1.570
97 John Merrick . . . 1.547
98 Robert Garrigus . . . 1.545
99 Marcel Siem . . . 1.526
100 David Howell . . . 1.505
===========
101 Hideto Tanihara . . . 1.500
102 Russell Henley . . . 1.481
103 Danny Willett . . . 1.478

Gallacher's nephew, surely?
Hope Uihlein squeezes in to the MatchPlay somehow.

kwinigolfer wrote:Gallacher's nephew, surely?
Hope Uihlein squeezes in to the MatchPlay somehow.

Oops, I screwed up the standings so many times and didn't pay attention to the text.  I'll edit.

With Phil, Adam, Tiger, and Justin not playing the Match play, the field is going down to OWGR #68.  


FTR: Phil and Adam are the only who have OFFICIALLY said they are not playing)

There is one more week left to clinch a spot in field and here are the bubble boys and what their plans are this week.

OWGR
#65 Piercy: Not Playing
#66 Aphibarnrat: PLAYING ATTPB
#67:de Jonge: Not playing this week
#68 Koepka Not playing this week
#69 Uihlein Not playing this week
#70 Kim Hyung Sun Not playing this week
#71 Cabrera Not playing this week
#72 CH III  Not playing this week
#73 BVP PLAYING ATTPB
#74 Coetzee PLAYING JoBurg Open
#75 Points PLAYING ATTPB
#76 Oda Not playing this week
#77 Castro PLAYING ATTPB
#78 Ishikawa Not Playing this week

All in all, not a whole lot of interest among the bubble boys to play their way into the Match Play.

It sounds as if Piercy withdrew thinking he has a better chance of qualifying for the MatchPlay if he doesn't play than if he does.

I'm surprised about Howell, deJonge and Ishikawa though.
Think Cabrera is playing a reduced schedule prior to surgery in the spring.

kwinigolfer wrote:It sounds as if Piercy withdrew thinking he has a better chance of qualifying for the MatchPlay if he doesn't play than if he does.

I'm surprised about Howell, deJonge and Ishikawa though.
Think Cabrera is playing a reduced schedule prior to surgery in the spring.

Piercy would be risking very little by playing the ATTPB.

With or without playing ATTPB, Piercy is at the 52 tournament divisor, and his 52nd tournament is a T21 at the 2012 Houston Open that is netting 0.24 pts right now, which is worth a total of .0046 pts to his OWGR avg.

At his current form, and his record in the tourney, COetzee should easily bag a Top5 at Joburg - which should just be enough to squeeze him into the top 68.

pedro wrote:At his current form, and his record in the tourney, COetzee should easily bag a Top5 at Joburg - which should just be enough to squeeze him into the top 68.

Unless someone like RCB wins Pebble Beach this week.

RCB should stay home. He'll be another double dipper I'm afraid....

GPB wrote:All in all, not a whole lot of interest among the bubble boys to play their way into the Match Play.

IMHO you misread the interest of players in the MP... Granted, players aren't likely to make every last gasp effort to make a WGC field like some (but not all) might a major, but that doesn't mean they're "not interested".  And also granted that this year some of the top players are making a "statement" about their feelings of the Dove Mountain venue... but I don't think that applies to the "bubble" guys.

Seems to me most players understand they need breaks in their schedule to perform to their maximum and those that can arrange their schedules with that in mind. I believe they arrange their schedules with the intent of getting into as many of the big events as they can. WGC's included. If that works and gets them in the upcoming big event(s), fine...but if it doesn't, I don't think they stress over it. Most seem to believe that just adding event after event after event just for the sake of playing is more likely to yield diminishing returns instead of prospects of success. With very few Vijay like exceptions... I agree with them.

Take the Euro bubble guys on your list... I can understand why many of them don't scurry on down to SA to play in a low rated event just to try to gain the MP... especially since probably only a win would be enough for most of them anyway.  First those above #60 are "probably" safe into the MP... and guys like Uihlein & Koepka have played 3 or 4 straight in the M.E.

And I can understand guys like de Jonge, CH3 and Ishiwawa coming off 4 straight are not paying this week as well. All three of those guys historically play Riviera, so to add this week, that would have them playing 6 straight weeks when you add in Pebble, Riv and 7 straight if they should make the  MP.

And this isn't just some phenomenon having to do with lack of interest in WGCs. Quite often we see bubble players passing on "last gasp chances" to get into majors as well.

We've talked about here before, most recently at the end of this past year as "bubble" players passed on events to make year end top-50 to qualify for the Masters... I believe Piercy was one in that discussion then too.  And I'll bet we'll see it again as the various Major OWGR deadlines come and go this year. But again.. I don't believe any of those situations will necessarily indicate "bubble players aren't interested in majors"... any more than this situation indicates "bubble players aren't interested in WGC's"

And on another note... thanks for your excellent efforts on the OWGR stuff this week... and on a Super Bowl Sunday never the less..   

Sure Uihlein and Koepka played 3 straight in the Middle East.  But it is not like they were globetrotting three straight weeks.  Its about a hours flight from Doha to Dubai.

And jeez, there are in their early 20's, and not traveling with a family.

And I doubt if they are going to playing much in Europe for the next few weeks.  An extra week on the road before a long break from was not going to kill them.  The ET is basically a dead period from now until May.

If players are not bothering their arse to get into the majors then why the hell are they out there?

Also, can we stop talking about playing golf as if it is a taxing activity. You could play 52 weeks straight and be ok physically. I understand there are some travel inconveniences, but inconveniences are all they are. No excuse for those in the bubble to have a crack at WGC and major qualification whenever the opportunity presents itself.

Mac,
I know you've led a sheltered life but being on the road for 52 weeks a year is exhausting, in different time-zones more so, in time-zones that are often 5 hrs plus, even more so.
They're not inconveniences, they're detrimental to health and well-being, physical and psychological. Let alone good golf.
It's different from the Number 9 bus for goodness' sake.

What a daft post!

It's not like they use economy or have to worry about roaches in the bathtub of some grubby motel.

I assume you have traveled for work, hence the theme of the post above, and are therefore better placed to judge than me about the effects of travelling. But 52 weeks was an exaggeration, when the reality is we were talking about adding one or two weeks to a players schedule at crucial time in the season. Which is unlikely to bring on the stress you mention above.

Do you really think travel (by that we mean a few hour internal flight) could be used as an excuse to not tee it up when a place in the big events is on the line. After all if you don't tee it up you are already guaranteed a few extra weeks off.

PS. You clearly don't use the buses if you think it is a way to shelter yourself. They are full of the biggest weirdos going.   

Yes, I have travelled 52 weeks a year, not a pleasant experience despite interesting interludes.
I have great sympathy for professional sportsmen who are expected to perform at the top of their game (otherwise, what's the point?) week in, week out, whilst being on the road especially when, as in my case, significant time differences are involved.
Buses here are great however!

Mac,

Travelling for work is exciting to begin with, but the novelty soon wears off. Even if you are flying business class and staying in nice hotels. It's not a holiday, it's exhausting.

I'm sure these golfers don't get much time to enjoy their surroundings. 1-2 hours warming up on the range / chipping / putting greens, 5+ hours on the course, another hour of interviews and sponsors' requirements, they'll often go to the range afterwards to work with their coach on a particular part of their game that let them down that day. Doesn't leave much time to do anything else...

Just snow here, thank goodness; had enough of the ice-storms in December - some still hasn't melted.

What do you have for Pebble, GPB? Low forties??
Not so much strength in depth as mediocrity in depth I would think.

OWGR is forecasting an ATTPB SoF at 246 which makes it 44.

It was 40 last year.