Season prediction?

With the Australian Grand Prix now just under a week away, I thought I would put up a thread for your season's predictions?

Who is going to win the Drivers' Championship?
Who is going to win the Constructors Championship?
Which drivers will surprise? Which will disappoint?
What are you looking forward to?
If you have on wish for the season what would it be?

And feel free to add any other bold/ fun predictions.

At the moment (going purely on pre-season) I will tip Lewis Hamilton to win the world title.

As Mercedes seem to have the strongest package (at the moment) I will tip them to take the constructors title.

Bottas to surprise as Williams look to at last have a strong package once more. To disappoint - hard to say.

I am looking forward to the possibility of Williams being back up amongst the challengers for race wins.

Apart from Bernie slinging his hook, I will say closer more competitive racing with marked improvement from the likes of Marussia and Caterham.

With the factory manufactures seeming to be ahead of the rest, I can see Ferrari and Mercedes battling it out for the championships. I just favour Fernando Alonso and Ferrari to take the titles.

I agree that Bottas and Williams could surprise. It is good to see Kobayashi back. Not sure this is a 'surprise' pick but I think Nico Rosberg could out perform Lewis Hamilton and go pretty close to the Drivers' Championship.

After 1st Test (in Article for the Magazine)
World Champion Prediction
1st: Fernando Alonso
2nd: Lewis Hamilton
3rd: Kimi Raikkonen

Constructors Title Prediction
1st: Ferrari
2nd: Mercedes
3rd: Force India

Now
WDC:
1st: Rosberg
2nd: Hamilton
3rd: Vettel

WCC:
1st: Mercedes
2nd: Ferrari
3rd: Williams

I'm more interested in the actual feel & look of the races at first, before my Hamilton for the title wish takes fold. We could have to endure dire racing which I'm worried about at the minute with all the conservation needed. Hopefully its not the case.

Expect a strong Mercedes start, with Mclaren & Williams closely behind. Ferrari are quick but seem to have fuel issues for the race, could see them dropping back in races until they sort it. Vettel to begin to claw back a points deficit throughout the season but as for his fifth WDC, depends on how quickly they become competitive.

WDC - Hamilton (please be his year)
Constructors - Mercedes or Ferrari (late surge)
Looking forward to - Button/Magnussen & Perez/Hulkenberg

Still too many unknowns for me to make a prediction (at least one that I'd put money on).

I think we'll see a fair few reliability issues early on, as well as some surprises from the smaller teams. A lot will depend on how the teams address these issues as they arise.

Going purely on pre-season form, Mercedes and Ferrari have to be favourites. Think Nico and Lewis are closely matched in terms of outright pace, but maybe Hamilton's greater experience will be the deciding factor? Out of the Ferrari pair, both Fernando and Kimi are very quick, but Alonso is probably more consistent, which will give him the edge in their battle.

One thing you can put money on is that Red Bull will come good at some point and that Vettel will be in contention before the end.

dyrewolfe wrote:Still too many unknowns for me to make a prediction (at least one that I'd put money on).

I think we'll see a fair few reliability issues early on, as well as some surprises from the smaller teams. A lot will depend on how the teams address these issues as they arise.

Going purely on pre-season form, Mercedes and Ferrari have to be favourites. Think Nico and Lewis are closely matched in terms of outright pace, but maybe Hamilton's greater experience will be the deciding factor? Out of the Ferrari pair, both Fernando and Kimi are very quick, but Alonso is probably more consistent, which will give him the edge in their battle.

One thing you can put money on is that Red Bull will come good at some point and that Vettel will be in contention before the end.

Yeah, it's just too early really to say anything. I think the first race will probably be farcical with a number of retirements, general rustiness of the teams/drivers leading to mistakes & there's even talk of wet weather this weekend. Usually post-Australia you still have no idea what the actual running order of the teams is likely to be for the season, especially as it's more of a street-circuit design.

Think Hamilton & Rosberg are closely matched in race pace, however, I think the difference maker will be qualifying, with Hamilton a clear favourite. I want to see this fuel issue with Ferrari that I keep hearing, both drivers might be quick but if the Ferrari package is thirsty, as reported, then they've got issues in the race that will drop them back.

Agree about Vettel. I can see Mercedes winning a fair share of races early on with the others shared by Williams, McLaren & Ferrari. Second half of season I see Red Bull winning many races, especially after 'Newey's summer break', where he brings a completely new modified package to the party.

All about Nico this season

Heh - I actually forgot McLaren have shown well in testing...as have Williams.

Would like to see McLaren make a serious title challenge and for Williams to start troubling the likes of Force India, Sauber and Toro Rosso.

I can't understand how lots of comment by people in F1 are saying don't write Red Bull off yet, that they've still got a fundamentally fast car etc? It's been so hard for them in testing and they've been many seconds off the pace so how can anyone judge their true potential? Is it like a computer projection type thing they have which says if everything is right we'd get this speed?

sikhlion wrote:I can't understand how lots of comment by people in F1 are saying don't write Red Bull off yet, that they've still got a fundamentally fast car etc? It's been so hard for them in testing and they've been many seconds off the pace so how can anyone judge their true potential? Is it like a computer projection type thing they have which says if everything is right we'd get this speed?

Firstly, they are four time world champions, that is not a fluke. Secondly, they have an aerodynamic genius in Adrian Newey. Thirdly, they've had issues with the Renault package & were seconds off pace because they had to turn the power units down considerably due to overheating. The running that they did do, showed that they had bags of downforce & in the corner measurements, they were the fastest apparently.

Underneath all the issues they are facing will be the foundations of a very fast car. How fast we don't truly know. It will take time to sort out & fix, however, when those issues are resolved they will be challenging. Don't write RB off & that's why, as a Hamilton fan, Mercedes need a fast start.

John wrote:

sikhlion wrote:I can't understand how lots of comment by people in F1 are saying don't write Red Bull off yet, that they've still got a fundamentally fast car etc? It's been so hard for them in testing and they've been many seconds off the pace so how can anyone judge their true potential? Is it like a computer projection type thing they have which says if everything is right we'd get this speed?

Firstly, they are four time world champions, that is not a fluke. Secondly, they have an aerodynamic genius in Adrian Newey. Thirdly, they've had issues with the Renault package & were seconds off pace because they had to turn the power units down considerably due to overheating. The running that they did do, showed that they had bags of downforce & in the corner measurements, they were the fastest apparently.

Underneath all the issues they are facing will be the foundations of a very fast car. How fast we don't truly know. It will take time to sort out & fix, however, when those issues are resolved they will be challenging. Don't write RB off & that's why, as a Hamilton fan, Mercedes need a fast start.

Totally agree John. If Renault can solve their problems then it is anybody's title as the rest of the Red Bull package is sure to be top notch.

There are really three questions for Red Bull:
1 - Will the fixes to give reliability be too big a compromise on the aero side?
2 - Is the Renault engine good enough anyway (Sky reckoned the Ferrari engine was about 75bhp down on the Merc, and the Renault possibly even weaker)
3 - How long will the fixes take?

I can see it being a bit like the year Button won his title - for the second half of the year the RB was at least as fast as the Brawn, but they'd simply been distanced too far to be serious championship contenders.

Looks like Mercedes are currently in prime position, with the Mercedes customer teams and Ferrari expected to be the next fastest, but no-one is too sure of the order yet.

One prediction - Caterham and/or Marussia will pick up points in the first quarter of the season. The Marussia is apparently not a bad little car and has been running reliably, while the Caterham could benefit from being the one apparently bullet-proof Renault-powered car.

Could be like 09` in terms of Button & see where your coming from but I don't see a Mercedes innovation or reliability that simply would blow everyone out the water in the first half of the season. RB are most likely to come charging back but I see the wins in the early stages being shared by Hamilton/Rosberg, unlike Button`s domination on Barrichello + various wins by Ferrari & maybe Williams. They still would have time would RB.

As for your questions, clearly Newey`s first fix didn't work & he was unwilling to tear apart his tightly fitted packaging. The new upgrade package for RB in Melbourne, I`m expecting it to take a small percentage away from the aero performance because they can't afford to take risks now, they need the fix.

Is the Renault a weaker engine in terms of power? Probably. Still think it will hold its own though & RB`s aero will always eek out more performance, therefore being a leveller.

FP1 needs to hurry up   

Joihn

Looks like Newey and RB have come a fair way along the path to a solution - running with the front pack of cars (reckoned to be about 0.5s behind Mercedes on long run pace, but in the mix with McLaren and Ferrari) and managing a sensible number of laps reliably. Perhaps they'll be up to race winning pace a bit sooner than mid season.

I wasn't suggesting that Mercedes had any one specific 'game changing' advantage, just that they seem to have an all round package that is well integrated and functioning better at this stage than the others.