OWGR week 11

There had been some chatter this might be the best field in recent memory for the Valspar Championship (Tampa), but my quick preliminary OWGR estimate of 54 50 (EDIT: should be 50 instead of 54 see below) didn't quite measure up.  2 points better than last year, but 4 behind 2012 and 2010.  Only one top-10 player in Justin Rose participating plus 7 more in the top-25 (15 total top-50 players, 41 total top-100, and 88 total top-200).  Since the event moved back to March in 2007... these were the OWGR levels.

2014 - 50 (edited Tuesday from 54)
2013 - 52
2012 - 58
2011 - 52
2010 - 58
2009 - 46
2008 - 52
2007 - 48

I don't have the estimate for Trophée Hassan II, OWGR should be out with it early tomorrow morning... but at a quick glance it doesn't look as if it will escape the 24 point minimum level...

Thanks robo;
Still a good event at Innisbrook though. After all, you can't expect a Top five player like Patrick Reed to play every week.

And: All things considered, not that bad for Morocco either, with a good sprinkling of the higher ranking golfers that missed out on Doral.

OWGR has posted their projections as 50 for Valspar instead of 54...  I'll go back through mine to see what the discrepancies are...

EDIT: OWGR is correct... my error carrying 2 points, instead of 1 for players ranked 101 - 200.

Kwini... and as for Reed... I'm OK with his comments. Wouldn't call them exactly smart (unless he proves them correct).. but we seem to criticize guys when they don't open up with their true thoughts... so I'm not gonna criticize him because he did.

And... I like a guy being confident in his abilities... and his 3 wins are impressive to the max. Some criticize that he struggled somewhat in the final round of all his three wins... but I kinda have the impression that if you can play so well in the first 3 rounds you can afford to struggle in the final and still win... that's a solid. Seems I recall a guy named Tiger Woods did just that in a couple of events last year... and all he did was win 5 times while collecting a POY and a Vardon...

robo,
You don't have to convince moi about Reed, after all we were talking about him almost two years ago, when he started his Monday qualifying odyssey!
Only pause about him leaking oil coming down the stretch for me is due to his struggle (I think it was) at Memphis last year.
This time it was Donaldson who blinked (after everyone else had of course) on the 18th; a great shame that Reed didn't need four on #18 to get his win.

Still, over-reaching "confidence" in public utterances never helped Poulter, may perhaps have been a burden.

PS: I see that Matsuyama apologized to Dufner, Poults and Charl last week.

Kwini...   good comments.  Bottom line... smart or not... I appreciate when they speak out...

When you think of it... the comments we get from golfers are usually so bland, maybe when any one of them says anything outside the standard soundbite... it gets people all worked up.  Some of the comments I've seen on several boards on Reed are hilarious.   It takes all kinds of people to make up this world.. and a lot of those kinds are playing on the PGA Tour (and of course ET and elsewhere)... it's just a shame that the ever-so-easily-offended coupled with Publicists and political correctness has neutered most of them mute.

I loved the days when golfers were allowed to speak frankly, reveal their personalities and a few flaws without everybody getting so bent out of shape.

One of my favorite stories is about Raymond Floyd in Houston one year.   It used to be a gaggle of press would meet players right after they came off the 18th green.  After his poor 3rd round, Floyd came off steaming saying "No interviews".   One of the 2 rather well known Houston female golf reporters at the time responded "Why not?"   Floyd fired back with that glare of his... "Because I just shot myself out of a %$#&ing golf tournament, that's why".  All the way to the scoring trailer he fuming and spitting mad at anybody who approached him  And everybody thought it was FUNNY as heck... even the reporter who I know well and still reports on golf.   After Raymond emerges from the scoring area... same female reporter... asks him the same question...  And Raymond just smiles and starts in with the good ole... well I hit my irons fine but my... yada, yada, yada....   Today... a reporter would be SO offended and the fans in an uproar calling for the players head.  Then the player would probably be not only fined for such a deal... but probably suspended and roasted over the internet like smoldering pork at a luau...

Personally I would LOVE if players were like that in interviews.
Some of the interviews you see are simply a waste of air space, they tell you nothing and are nothing but sheer banalities.

However, it's not all down to the golfer, the interviewer has to take probably at least half the blame for asking the same stock questions all the time which lead to inevitably the same dreary answers. They should grow a pair of balls and actually act like investigative journalists for a change, that's effectively what they are.

Would love to see someone interviewing the Bible Thumpers (Zach, Mullet Watson, That bald moron Crane etc) and ask why they bother practicing if god is helping them or if God minds them working on the Sabbath.

kwinigolfer wrote:PS: I see that Matsuyama apologized to Dufner, Poults and Charl last week.

Yeah... while maybe unintentional, IMO Hideki kinda stuck it to Poulter by making that move... maybe made Poults realize there was a better way to deal with the situation than taking it to the "twitterverse".

Does Coetzee have to win to reach the Masters?

I would say he has to win to be sure of the Masters.
He might luck in to a place with a runner-up if others slide, but can't see everyone doing that and he has Matteo and Woodland playing well this week who could c0ck things up for him too.
Edit: Would think a snowman on a par-5 has pretty much melted Coetzee's chances. Time for a break.

Yep, it looks like both Coetzee and Sterne will not be getting an 11th hour invite to Augusta.

Neither are in the Bay Hill field nor are they in the Texas Open field (as of this morning).

Unless they get an invite to Houston (and win it) they will not be playing the Masters.

Congratz to this weeks winners:

John Senden breaks a 200+ winless streak to win his 2nd PGATournament. And climbs to #60 in the OWGR

Alejandro Cañizares also breaks a long winless streak, winning the King Hassan II tournament in Morocco. He has not won a ET event since 2006, nearly 8 years. He cracks the top 100, to #89. His father was in the top 50 of the first OWGR listing in 1986.

http://dps.endavadigital.net/owgr/doc/content/archive/1986/owgr01f1986.pdf

Jon Curran wins the Web-com event, in Brazil, climbing to about 420th. He went to Vanderbilt and from Massachusetts.

Richard T. Lee from Toronto, Ontario Canada wins the Asian Tour Event in Manila, and climbs to about 270th.

Brett Munson from USA wins in Malaysia on the Asian Developmental Tour, debuting at about 700th in OWGR.

The Top 100 should look something like this:

1 Tiger Woods 9.697
2 Adam Scott 8.337
3 Henrik Stenson 8.223
4 Jason Day 7.030
5 Phil Mickelson 6.390
6 Justin Rose 6.248
7 Rory McIlroy 6.186
8 Dustin Johnson 5.972
9 Sergio Garcia 5.957
10 Zach Johnson 5.899
11 Matt Kuchar 5.549
12 Bubba Watson 5.413
13 Jordan Spieth 5.303
14 Steve Stricker 4.715
15 Graeme McDowell 4.696
16 Jason Dufner 4.582
17 Charl Schwartzel 4.567
18 Ian Poulter 4.321
19 Brandt Snedeker 4.199
20 Patrick Reed 4.129
21 Luke Donald 4.109
22 Webb Simpson 4.061
23 Hideki Matsuyama 4.057
24 Jim Furyk 4.041
25 Victor Dubuisson 3.998
26 Jimmy Walker 3.967
27 Jamie Donaldson 3.829
28 Keegan Bradley 3.803
29 Thomas Bjorn 3.725
30 Graham Delaet 3.545
31 Bill Haas 3.440
32 Hunter Mahan 3.300
33 Ernie Els 3.213
34 Ryan Moore 3.189
35 Louis Oosthuizen 3.105
36 Lee Westwood 3.014
37 Stephen Gallacher 2.962
38 Harris English 2.900
39 Miguel A Jimenez 2.786
40 Rickie Fowler 2.753
41 Nick Watney 2.694
42 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 2.687
43 Kevin Streelman 2.638
44 Joost Luiten 2.611
45 Billy Horschel 2.560
46 Thongchai Jaidee 2.514
47 Russell Henley 2.502
48 Matteo Manassero 2.492
49 Chris Kirk 2.470
50 Gary Woodland 2.464
====== Masters Bubble Point
51 Jonas Blixt 2.443
52 Richard Sterne 2.408
53 Francesco Molinari 2.380
54 Branden Grace 2.308
55 Martin Kaymer 2.280
56 George Coetzee 2.274
57 Kevin Stadler 2.262
58 Scott Stallings 2.239
59 Chesson Hadley 2.238
60 John Senden 2.233
61 David Lynn 2.193
62 Pablo Larrazabal 2.190
63 Ryan Palmer 2.189
64 Mikko Ilonen 2.166
65 Thorbjorn Olesen 2.067
66 Boo Weekley 2.048
67 Bernd Wiesberger 2.014
68 Peter Hanson 2.011
69 Marc Leishman 1.999
70 Ross Fisher 1.964
71 Peter Uihlein 1.869
72 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 1.869
73 Scott Piercy 1.858
74 Brooks Koepka 1.836
75 Charles Howell-III 1.829
76 Brendon de Jonge 1.789
77 Kim Hyung-sung 1.784
78 Kevin Na 1.750
79 Angel Cabrera 1.738
80 Chris Stroud 1.714
81 Roberto Castro 1.682
82 D.A. Points 1.675
83 Ryo Ishikawa 1.672
84 Koumei Oda 1.665
85 Thomas Aiken 1.661
86 Charley Hoffman 1.631
87 Robert Garrigus 1.629
88 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.615
89 Alejandro Canizares 1.615
90 Chris Wood 1.607
91 Brett Rumford 1.601
92 K.J. Choi 1.590
93 Paul Casey 1.574
94 Matthew Every 1.568
95 Bo Van Pelt 1.558
96 Michael Thompson 1.545
97 Matthew Jones 1.536
98 Martin Laird 1.533
99 Shingo Katayama 1.519
100 Tommy Fleetwood 1.492
======
101 Darren Fichardt 1.485
102 Pat Perez 1.448
103 John Merrick 1.444

 
GPB, Great work!

Opportunities lost by the Europeans we look at, especially guys like Weisberger, David Lynn, Hanson and Colsaerts who are slipping down the rankings and desperately need a parachute.
It's fashionable to talk about over- and under-achievers, but one guy who always seems to play better, especially at ball-striking courses, than his ranking is Charlie Hoffman.

Very pleased to see Canizares in the top 100 - another golfer who's too good to be slumming it below that level.

Excellent GPB...     

Golfers in the owgr Top Fifty at New Year's Eve who have tumbled the furthest are:
Peter Hanson: 20 places
David Lynn / Martin Kaymer: Both 16 places
Fran Molinari: 15
Watney / Westwood: 11 (mitigating circumstances for Watney because of injuries/withdrawals - no such excuse for Westwood)
Keegan Bradley: 8 places.

Big plungers from the Top 100 include:
Colsaerts: 42 places
Tim Clark: 39 places
John Huh/Van Pelt: 38 places
Marcus Fraser: 37
Lowry: 35

All of these need a succession of good results to stop their fall. A win would help, but they would still have to back that up.

Can you say "Free Fall"?

Preliminary OWGR winners share estimate for week the Arnold Palmer is 62.  Not bad, but not great. I would consider it a bit surprising, especially considering there's nothing OWGR counting on the Euro Tour the next few weeks.  Final top-50 qualification for the Masters is after the Texas Open, but compared to "regular events" the API has a plethora of extra Sponsors exemptions to hand out.  I couldn't say for sure... but I would have thought at least some of those non-members on or just outside the Masters bubble might have been looked upon favorably to get an invite to the API.... but i don't even know if they tried.  

From a press release on March 5, the API's 18 exemptions went as follows...

8 to PGA Tour regular or Past Champion members, Harrington, Goosen, Janzen, Chopra, Chad Campbell, Pampling, Villegas & past Masters champion Immelman.

The un-restricted 8 exemptions went to Zach Olsen, Nathan Smith, O'Hair, Pride, Paul Casey, Sam Saunders, Koepka and Uihlein.

The two Web.com exemptions went to Chesson Hadley and Putnam. Since Hadley gets in after the announcement via a higher criteria  (Winners of PGA TOUR cosponsored or approved tournaments, whose victories are considered official, since the previous season’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.) I "assume" (but don't know for sure) one spot was opened up and probably already filled... but I have not been through the field to figure out who, if it has.  

I also noticed there's actually more of the Web.com players slated to go in the API than got in Tampa, 13 to 15. (16 to 17 if you count Putnam, Peterson & Hadley)

The two most notable potential injury related non starters this week would be Tiger Woods and Jason Day.  The loss of Tiger would take the event down to a 58, and the loss of Woods and Day would take it to a 56.

Here's the OWGR for the API for the past 10 years...  

2014 - 62 58 (est)
2013 - 66
2012 - 56
2011 - 58
2010 - 60
2009 - 60
2008 - 62
2007 - 68
2006 - 68
2005 - 70
2004 - 68

EDIT: See updates below... with WD's of Day, Schwartzel & Castro (+ Driscoll and Levin who do not affect calculated field strength)... field is at 58 as of noon Monday tournament time.

Yes, robo, I was going to title this week's Notes "The Sam Saunders Invitational".
Greg Owen gets a sympathy place in the field too. Can't for the life of me see the justification for invites to some of these guys, just surprised that Robert Damron hasn't conned his way in to the field.
Not sure either how Tim Wilkinson gets in (although from tenuous experience he seems a very nice guy who "gets it").

PS: Good for Jonathan Byrd fulfilling his medical extension requirements. Hope he puts that behind him and recovers his form. Pity the Goose couldn't hang on and do the same.

Kwini...  And yes... good for Jbyrd. From all reports Goosen is playing pain free now, and seems to be playing at least marginally better in spots of late.  After Tampa, he should be about $90K short of what he needs to fulfill his MM with 3 more starts to get it.  Hope he gets it done, but even if he doesn't, I'd think he's still a shoe-in for lots of SEs.  

And as for Owen... not sure how he got in yet. I would assume Wilkinson got in via Hadley's vacated SE maybe?   Owen's not eligible for the either of the 2 Special Foreign Exemptions (not mentioned above), and I don't think they were used anyway. (Francesco Molinari was eligible via OWGR top-50)

I'll have a recap later in the week that shows me exactly who got in via which SE categories...

EDIT:  I'm pretty sure both Davis and Wilkinson got in via the last "fill the field" category for the API: "If necessary to complete a field of 120 players, those players below 70th position from the 2013-2014 FedExCup Points List through the WGC-Cadillac Championship/Puerto Rico Open, in order of their positions on such list."  It appears as though players down to about #108 on the FEPoints list are in as of now (#108 Putnam, #109 de Jonge not entered, #110 Cink in via 2009 Open Championship)... which puts Vegas at #111 first alternate.  Wilkinson was #90 at the cut off date, Davis was #92.

And by the way... if anybody is interested on figuring out how anybody else got in the API field... this is the complete criteria (different than the standard priority list in a lot of ways)

Eligible players in the 120-player field are:
• Winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational prior to 2000, and winners of the
Arnold Palmer Invitational in the last five seasons (2009-2013).

• Winners of Masters Tournament, THE PLAYERS Championship, U.S. Open,
British Open and PGA Championship in the last five seasons (2009-2013).

• Winners of the TOUR Championship in the last three seasons (2011-2013).

• Winners of the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship and WGC-Cadillac
Championship in the last three seasons (2012-2014).

• Winners of the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in the last three
seasons (2011-2013).

• Winners of the WGC-HSBC Champions in 2011 and 2012, if he was a PGA
TOUR member at the time of his victory. Winner of the 2013 WGC-HSBC
Champions.

• Winners of PGA TOUR cosponsored or approved tournaments, whose victories
are considered official, since the previous season’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

• Playing members of the last-named U.S. Ryder Cup team (2012).

• Current PGA TOUR members who were playing members of the last named
European Ryder Cup team (2012) and the U.S. and International Presidents Cup
teams (2013).

• The winner of the 2013 U.S. Amateur Championship, if still an amateur player.

• The top 50 players from the Official World Golf Ranking through the WGCCadillac
Championship/Puerto Rico Open.

• Life members of the PGA TOUR.

• 18 sponsor exemptions, restricted as follows:
— Two from among the 2013 Top Finishers of the Web.com Tour.
— Eight from among the current season’s PGA TOUR membership.
— Eight “unrestricted”.

• Up to two foreign players designated by the Commissioner.

• The top 70 players from the 2013 FedExCup Points List.

• Members in the Top 125-Nonmembers category whose points on the
non-WGC FedExCup Points List for Non-members for the previous
season equals or exceeds the amount of FedExCup points earned by the
player finishing in 70th position on the 2013 FedExCup Points List.

• The top 70 players from the 2013-2014 FedExCup Points List through the
WGC-Cadillac Championship/Puerto Rico Open.

• Either the current winner of the PGA Section Championship or the current
PGA Section Player of the Year where the tournament is played, as determined
by the Section.

• If necessary to complete a field of 120 players, those players below 70th
position from the 2013-2014 FedExCup Points List through the WGC-Cadillac
Championship/Puerto Rico Open, in order of their positions on such list.

• In recognition of his remarkable career achievements, indelible contributions to
golf and his role as host of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a lifetime exemption
for Arnold Palmer. (Such exemption will be an addition to the field.)

So the full field will be 120 players? Just curious because last year there were 132 in the field.

Hi Grumps,
Looking forward to spring?

I think last year the number of golfers in the fields for "Invitationals" was expanded to help compensate for the reduction in "tee-times" for the rank and file in the 2013 season due to the transfer of the "Fall Series" events to the 2013/2014 season.

1GrumpyGolfer wrote:So the full field will be 120 players?  Just curious because last year there were 132 in the field.

Yes... only 120 this year.  The field went back down to it's standard 120 "invitational" size field this year.  Last year several fields, including this one, were one time expanded because the Tour was concerned with the changeover to the "wrap-around" schedule there wouldn't be enough playing opportunities for the Web.com/Q-school grads (category 25). Last year the expansions were the API, Colonial, AT&T National from 120 to 132, Heritage from 132 to 144, Humana, Tampa, Houston & Valero from 144 to 156). But this year they are all slated to go back to their original size.

But as it turns out... that helped the Cat guys get at least a semi reasonable number of starts last year, but THIS year is a far bigger problem getting starts for Cat 25 guys than last.

It was anticipated most of this year's Category 25 guys would get up to 4 starts in the fall events, but there were 5 players that didn't get a single start in the fall... and another 10 that got 2 or less.  In fact to date... there are 3 Category 25 players that will have gotten only 4 starts through this week.  BIG, BIG problem for the Tour not providing enough playing opportunities for the Web.com guys...   In years past (2012 and before)... even the last ranked category 25 guy could count on getting 16-18 starts if he were healthy and available for every possible start.  This year some of them are gonna be lucky to get a dozen.

IMO when the Tour saw what was happening last fall... they should have expanded as many fields as they could have for this year as well.... but they didn't.   To date only one of the fall events has announced it will be beyond the traditional 132 players for those events.... but that won't help for the 2013-2014 season.  And it seems no matter what they do now for this year (if they do anything)... it will be too little too late.

This is a pretty big deal I reckon, especially with the Tour sticking its head in the sand regarding the "25" of the web.com Tour going in to the WTF series.
The irony is that, with very few exceptions, those who will suffer most are the Americans, who have no option but to continue playing web.com events as the PGA Tour has stiffed them. The Tour has got this very wrong and I hope they find a way of compensating the guys who are missing out this season.

PS:
The "Arnie" waving goodbye to Jason Day, Schwartzel, Castro, Levin and Driscoll.

Thanks guys, I didn't realize that the expanded field last year was a one time thing, I thought it was an ongoing thing so more grads got the chance to tee it up.

Yep, Kwini. Still got some snow piled from shovelling and in the yard it's still in the spots that don't get as much sun. I think you must still be wading in the stuff? Got my first game in on Saturday driving about 50-60 miles south into Jersey. They still had some snow in the bunkers and had one temp due to a snow covered green complex. Not sure when our course will open as there's still a lot of snow out there.

Kwini...  with the WD's (Day, Charl, Castro, Driscoll, & Levin) and additions (Beljan, Hoffman, Vegas from alt list, Holmes, Swafford as SE's)... the field is now at a level 58. As it stands now... it appears original 4th alternate David Lingmerth (now 1st alt) has been passed over to give a SE to 5th alternate Hudson Swafford.

Grumps, We're at least a month away, probably more like 6 weeks. But at least we didn't get the dump that DC received today. After a brutal February, we've only had one day where the temp reached 40, only three above freezing, and not warming up anytime soon.

I wonder whether the relative ordinariness (33rd of 52 in the Pros' ranking) of Bay Hill is taking its toll? Houston looks like being a beneficiary, robo!!??!!

I have been trumpeting the cause of Webbies for years, there are just too many players with "full" playing privileges.

But one thing the webbies do have is the option to play Web-com events.

2/3 of the webbies did not get into Tampa and same thing this week. They did get to play in Puerto Rico the week before Tampa and these guys probably had a good idea that they were not going to play Tampa (and Bay Hill).

So why didn't any of those guys go to Brazil last week and play that event? I doubt if there are any direct flights to from San Juan to Sao Paulo but there ought to be a fairly easy connection through Miami.

kwinigolfer wrote:This is a pretty big deal I reckon, especially with the Tour sticking its head in the sand regarding the "25" of the web.com Tour going in to the WTF series.
The irony is that, with very few exceptions, those who will suffer most are the Americans, who have no option but to continue playing web.com events as the PGA Tour has stiffed them. The Tour has got this very wrong and I hope they find a way of compensating the guys who are missing out this season.

Yes it is a big deal. What has surprised me is that up to this point there hasn't been a wholesale shifting of these guys to play down on the Web.com Tour. The Category 25 guys can get in those at will, but there's been very few to do that this year. Perhaps that's starting to change... this week in Panama 5 Cat 25 guys are entered... Defending champion Kevin Foley along with Alex Aragon, Peter Malnati, Alex Prugh and Andrew Svoboda.

It's NOT an answer, but at this point... the Webbies better start dual entering every Web.com event with the reality being that getting into the WTF playoffs for next year is becoming as important as trying to retain their PGAT card via top-125. And I guess this also illustrates that priority is KING now for the Webbies... and they better do something with EVERY start, cuz if you start low in the priority or get reshuffled down... you're in serious, serious trouble...

In fact by late the summer, I wouldn't be surprised to see some Category 25 guys who are far short of PGAT top-125, but close to Web.com top-25 try to apply for a waiver to skip some PGAT events in which they might be eligible in favor of some Web.com events. It might be a "smart" play in the long run.

The way the rules are curretnly written, a Category 25 guy cannot play in a Web.com event unless he is also entered in that weeks PGAT event, AND is listed as an alternate when the field is published on Friday (then he has a choice of either). BUT... he is "technically" eligible to apply for a waiver of that rule, same as a full time PGAT guy can apply for a "Conflicting Event Release" to play on a "foreign tour". Those are granted at the Commissioners discretion... and as far as I know one has never been asked for or granted.... but hopefully under the circumstances of NOT getting an adequate number of other starts to have a fighting chance to get one's PGA Card... such requests would be looked upon favorably.... I dunno?

GPB wrote:But one thing the webbies do have is the option to play Web-com events.

2/3 of the webbies did not get into Tampa and same thing this week.  They did get to play in Puerto Rico the week before Tampa and these guys probably had a good idea that they were not going to play Tampa (and Bay Hill).

So why didn't any of those guys go to Brazil last week and play that event? I doubt if there are any direct flights to from San Juan to Sao Paulo but there ought to be a fairly easy connection through Miami.

I was posting the same concept as you were... I did a spot check and only found 1 Web.com start in the 3 events by a Category 25 guy this year, Mark Anderson played the Pacific Rubiales Colombia Championship (there may be more but that's all i saw looking quickly).  But there are 5 playing in Panama this week. And when the Web.com tour gets back up to the states... I bet they start entering in droves.

And, talking of Alex Prugh, I see the "Undercover Tour Pro" this month is an equipment rep. Different Pro every month I reckon.

Oh, I wonder what is wrong with Schwartzel!?

I wonder will Day play before the Masters or will he shut it down until the Masters now!

With the added divisor in Adam Scotts resume, I don't think he can catch Woods this week. Even if Scott wins, and Woods plays and whiffies.

But with attrition, Scott could "Westwood" the #1 spot before the Masters if he wins and Tiger whiffies.

No further news yet on either Day or Schwartzel.

If Adam Scott wins Bay Hill (and earns 58 points) my UNOFFICIAL calculations for his OWGR for the next three weeks:

Mar 24: 9.35
Mar 31: 9.20
Apr 07: 9.27 (goes up due to losing a tournament from his divisor)

If Tiger fails* to score any OWGR Points at Bay Hill, his OWGR average for the next three weeks:

Mar 24: 9.48
Mar 31: 9.27
Apr 07: 9.07

So if Adam wins this week and Tiger whiffies, Adam will be number 1 going into the Masters.

Actually Tiger has to finish Solo 10th or better to be at 9.27 or better on April 7th.

Assumes neither Adam or Tiger plays San Antonio or Houston.

If Tiger does not play Bay Hill, his projected OWGR does not change (because of 40 tourney min divisor). Adam will still "Westwood" the #1 spot on even if the OWGR rating of BayHill falls to level 50.