Wales. A blip of a trend.

by wrfc1980 Fri 14 Mar 2014, 6:52 am

Wales undoubtedly have some excellent players however their results thus 6 nations have been mixed. Some say its a blip others a team in decline. I have pulled a list together of all results since the start of the 2012/13 autumn internationals. I've picked this cut off as going back to far things become irrelevant.
During this period wales played 19 times loosing 10 games and winning 9. That's a win ratio of only 47 percent.
Its clear to me that wales are struggling and something has gone drastically wrong.

by wrfc1980 Fri 14 Mar 2014, 6:56 am

The list is as follows
Wales lost to. Argentina, Samoa, new Zealand, Australia x 2, Ireland x 2, Japan , south Africa and england
Wales beat. France x 2, Italy x 2, Scotland , england , Japan , argentina , Tonga.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Fri 14 Mar 2014, 7:26 am

We know where this is going right?

Wales form in the last decade has been roller coaster like this. Its not as much of a crash as they had after some of the previous title wins.

Yawn.

by Scarpia Fri 14 Mar 2014, 7:41 am

We (Wales) need to have our best players fit and in form to be able to string together a series of wins. For all the claims of management we do not have the strength in depth we would like. If just a few players are not on form we struggle. Thassorl.

by Guest Fri 14 Mar 2014, 9:09 am

I liked Scrumpy's thread better. At least we had a fifty percent win rate then.

All very interesting of course. You should both apply for the Western Fail newspaper.

by Scrumpy Fri 14 Mar 2014, 9:30 am

I tried once but they felt my views were too close to the mark to sell newspapers.

by lostinwales Fri 14 Mar 2014, 10:33 am

There is also he question of when did Wales last produce a good quality all round performance for 80 minutes. The easy answer is last year vs England, but its worth remembering that a lot of their other performances that year were not great even though they won the championship

by nlpnlp Fri 14 Mar 2014, 1:44 pm

I think the performance against France this year was pretty good. I also think you are setting the bar a bit high expecting a full 80 minute performance every game. Looking at the New Zealand v England game in the autumn internationals, England were the better team for 50 minutes or so of the game, but New Zealand won. Good teams can soak up pressure and then come back and win.

I think Wales do struggle in two areas. The first is that they seem to have spells when they just don't play well. You wouldn't expect them to have lost to the Samoan, Argentinian or Japanese teams they did lose to. I am not sure it is as simple as they only have 15 or so international players, as I think they have a lot more than that. Paul James, Ken Owen, Luke Charteris, Justin Tiperic, etc are good international players who I would quite happily have in the England team. There are the likes of Lee Byrne who can't seem to get near the team, who are good players.

The other issue is playing style. When they can physically dominate teams they look good, but as against Ireland and England this year when they can't, then they look a bit short. Don't tell me George North and Leigh Halfpenny can't run the ball back like the England and Ireland back three do. It is just that they are told not to, but to kick it instead. That is easy to defend against. Also I think Wales have over the last few years become fixated with disrupting the scrum as a strategy to win penalties for Halfpenny to kick. With the new scrum laws and refs actually cottoning on to what they do, the scrum has been taken away as a weapon for them.

Having a backline of Roberts, Davies, North and Cuthbert does enable Wales to play the physical game, but let them play a bit of rugby as well as the physical and that takes to a new level. It is higher risk and the question is will Gatland be brave enough to take that risk.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Fri 14 Mar 2014, 1:48 pm

lostinwales wrote:There is also he question of when did ~~Wales~~ New Zealand last produce a good quality all round performance for 80 minutes

by SecretFly Fri 14 Mar 2014, 2:39 pm

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
lostinwales wrote:There is also he question of when did ~~Wales~~ New Zealand last produce a good quality all round performance for 80 minutes

Issue for New zealand is they can afford to lose about 30% of their highest performance levels and still be in a position to win or at least put up an unmerciful fight if losing. The rest of us drop 30% off our best................... well, we have to admit, it's usually curtains.

by jimmyinthewell68 Fri 14 Mar 2014, 2:48 pm

i think every team coach knows how to beat us but only England and Ireland could . we been found out and yet gatland won't change while other coaches moved on from the kicking game .

by Poorfour Fri 14 Mar 2014, 3:31 pm

jimmyinthewell68 wrote:i think every team coach knows how to beat us but only England and Ireland could . we been found out and yet gatland won't change while other coaches moved on from the kicking game .

It's not only England and Ireland, though. If it were, you might be able to rely on emotion and intensity. But it's also NZ, Aus and South Africa.

Teams have worked out how to counter the gameplan: pressurise the halfbacks, and push up in defence so that the outside backs don't have time to get up to speed. Gatland needs to find a way to create space.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Fri 14 Mar 2014, 4:05 pm

SecretFly wrote:
Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
lostinwales wrote:There is also he question of when did ~~Wales~~ New Zealand last produce a good quality all round performance for 80 minutes

Issue for New zealand is they can afford to lose about 30% of their highest performance levels and still be in a position to win or at least put up an unmerciful fight if losing. The rest of us drop 30% off our best................... well, we have to admit, it's usually curtains.

Exactly the point is that Wales are merely a decent team, on a par with their "big 4" euro rivals.

Something we already knew.

The ups and downs in fortunes have been around an average over the last decade, and havent varied that wildly from where they are at now ...the 6th or 7th best side in the world.

Even losing to Scotland wouldnt be that far below the norm for the last decade, and frankly theyd still be a better side than the one from the early 2000s which at times struggled to keep pace with professionalism.

It wont take a lot to get another champion side, nor will it take a lot to challenge for the wooden spoon again. As it always is with Wales.

Yawn.

by Scratch Fri 14 Mar 2014, 6:45 pm

wrfc1980 wrote:Wales undoubtedly have some excellent players however their results thus 6 nations have been mixed. Some say its a blip others a team in decline. I have pulled a list together of all results since the start of the 2012/13 autumn internationals. I've picked this cut off as going back to far things become irrelevant.
During this period wales played 19 times loosing 10 games and winning 9. That's a win ratio of only 47 percent.
Its clear to me that wales are struggling and something has gone drastically wrong.

contrast that 47% win ratio with a 84% win ratio in the 6 Nations….there's your discussion point.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Fri 14 Mar 2014, 8:06 pm

Scratch wrote:
wrfc1980 wrote:Wales undoubtedly have some excellent players however their results thus 6 nations have been mixed. Some say its a blip others a team in decline. I have pulled a list together of all results since the start of the 2012/13 autumn internationals. I've picked this cut off as going back to far things become irrelevant.
During this period wales played 19 times loosing 10 games and winning 9. That's a win ratio of only 47 percent.
Its clear to me that wales are struggling and something has gone drastically wrong.

contrast that 47% win ratio with a 84% win ratio in the 6 Nations….there's your discussion point.

During that period wales has a record of won 6 lost 3 (67%) in the 6 nations.

by Scratch Fri 14 Mar 2014, 8:10 pm

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
Scratch wrote:
wrfc1980 wrote:Wales undoubtedly have some excellent players however their results thus 6 nations have been mixed. Some say its a blip others a team in decline. I have pulled a list together of all results since the start of the 2012/13 autumn internationals. I've picked this cut off as going back to far things become irrelevant.
During this period wales played 19 times loosing 10 games and winning 9. That's a win ratio of only 47 percent.
Its clear to me that wales are struggling and something has gone drastically wrong.

contrast that 47% win ratio with a 84% win ratio in the 6 Nations….there's your discussion point.

During that period wales has a record of won 6 lost 3 (67%) in the 6 nations.

so i included that years 6 nations results to illustrate the paradox in results. Rolling Eyes

by Scratch Fri 14 Mar 2014, 8:19 pm

Wales have always fluctuated in the 6 Nations, they are also the side to go the shortest time period without a championship victory. It's up and down, i have no real issue with it, we'll be back next season you can count on that….the story here, though hardly a new one, is the failure to win outside the 6 Nations.

I don't count Japan as that was a pure development side and we were busy providing the backbone of a winning lIons tours, but not to beat an SH side is no longer acceptable.

Based on this season i can't see us changing that in SA.

by samuraidragon Sat 15 Mar 2014, 2:11 am

Scratch wrote:Wales have always fluctuated in the 6 Nations, they are also the side to go the shortest time period without a championship victory. It's up and down, i have no real issue with it, we'll be back next season you can count on that….the story here, though hardly a new one, is the failure to win outside the 6 Nations.

I don't count Japan as that was a pure development side and we were busy providing the backbone of a winning lIons tours, but not to beat an SH side is no longer acceptable.

Based on this season i can't see us changing that in SA.

Development team or no development team, we should not have lost to Japan 23-8. It was a terrible result and heads should have rolled. Furthermore, amongst the starters that day were Bradley Davies, Liam Williams, Dan Biggar, Lloyd Williams, Rhys Gill and Tom Prydie, all players with several full caps. Coming off the bench were Craig Mitchell, Rhodri Jones, Andrew Coombs, Tavis Knoyle and Rhys Patchell.

It's emblematic of what's wrong with Welsh rugby that such a dire performance is simply brushed under the carpet by management and fans alike.

by rainbow-warrior Sat 15 Mar 2014, 3:06 am

Focussing on S Africa is the next thing and the last 5 tests the defeat has been 5 or less points apart from the 9 points last game. I think that shows that we have improved against them. Sure they are defeats and it is not great to judge by points deficit in a defeat but I think we have to focus on something! S Africa will be extremely tough and for us to come away with one victory will be a huge ask, but it has to be the place where Gatland starts the changes. By the time the AI's come around we must be able to win a few and have a good 6 Nations to go into the World Cup.

I feel the backs are fine apart from 9 - 10, Biggar has my shout but who should be the 9's going to S Africa?

I do not pretend to know what goes on in the pack but we know it is not firing as well as it was and some changes need to be made.

We are not a team in decline, far from it, but if that's what certain fans from other countries want to think, fair enough, he who laughs last and all that.

by BigTrevsbigmac Sat 15 Mar 2014, 8:03 am

Rainbow -

Surely if there are deficiencies in the half backs & 'the scrum' that is by definition a team in decline?

Those weaknesses weren't there at the last World Cup.

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