How many victories make a believer?

It's a little known fact that The Monkees were huge union fans. Their song I'm A Believer was written after their cellar dwelling local team rose to the top and won the national trophy.

I thought love was only true in fairy tales
Meant for someone else but not for me.
Love was out to get me
That's the way it seemed.
Disappointment haunted all my dreams.

Then I saw her face, now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind.
I'm in love, I'm a believer!
I couldn't leave her if I tried.

I thought love was more or less a given thing,
Seems the more I gave the less I got.
What's the use in tryin'?
All you get is pain.
When I needed sunshine I got rain.

Then I saw her face, now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind.
I'm in love, I'm a believer!
I couldn't leave her if I tried.

I look at that third verse in particular and our loyal but embittered Scotland supporters spring to mind. But even in the darkest places, the sweet face of Victory can make an appearance and bring light to even the darkest corners of our minds. How long though does Victory need to stick around to convert us into believers?

I read an article today where Colin Slade admitted that after their home loss to the Hurricanes, he admitted the likelihood of winning their away games to the Chiefs, Cheetahs, Lions was beyond the realms of possibility: http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/9961694/Tougher-edge-sharpens-Colin-Slades-resolve. How many times do I read the comments when a team faces a top SH team like SA and NZ, if we keep them to a respectable score I'll be happy? I'm all for realism but approaching a game where your sole objective is containment rather than all out attack is a self fulfilling prophecy. Now of course these are the supporters' words and not the coaches or the players but you get the feeling the rehearsed nonsense they blurt out in the press conferences is far removed from their real thoughts. Doubt reigns in their minds and, as a result, in their performances.

It seems simple, but actually it's a giant leap from knowing you can win and believing you can win. As Slade said: You never really know until you have been in that situation as a team - and now we know we can win games. It's not something you can conjure up from thin air. It comes from results and the momentum you gain from winning consecutive games is like a snowball rolling down a hill. The more you win, the bigger your belief comes and the bigger your resolve is to win because that's what you come to expect.

It's difficult to trace back exactly where this resolve and belief comes but you can always point out key victories as catalysts for change in thinking. As an Atletico supporter, I am experiencing a fairytale season but know the squad has changed very little from when they were spectacularly awful. Players who were nothing special are integral stars now. I look at the Australian team at the start of last season and I saw them at the end and I see a team similar to SA who turned their away performances around last season. Lord help the rest of the rugby world if they beat the All Blacks because somehow they will become even more formidable. Consistency and winning momentum are hard to achieve but when you obtain it, it intimidates the opposition. Look at Ireland and England in recent times and Wales in the 6N the two seasons before and you see the dramatic change that occurs. Compare that to France who are capable of getting a high profile win here and there but the rest of the time look shambolic.

They may have been the X Factor band of their time, but those Monkees really knew their rugby.

I think belief is a brittle aspect on sport.

My reasoning has a lot to do with behind the scenes happenings that we are not always aware of.

Looking at the Bok team currently, political interference is always prevalent in our selections, it doesn't take much from up top to tell Meyer to select more players of colour and it destroys the team unity, belief in each other etc.

So from a Bok perspective I don't expect too much anymore. Changing coaching staff, losing faith in a game plan or coach all has an influence on that belief.

I'm a Believer was written by Neil Diamond. The Monkees poached it

But Neil Diamond was a football fan. Crystal Palace like Oakey if I'm not mistaken. The Monkees were diehard rugby fans. You're just making up facts to suit your needs, Cyril.   

As a Lions fan - it's actually a difficult concept. Having been relegated in 2012, and gone winless a year or two earlier... abject failure is my portion. This season we've started respectably and are probably on more wins than I thought we'd get in total... Herein lies the rub. I didn't we get off to a 4/6 start.... But having gotten there, I know don't believe the law of probability and averages allows us to win anymore. So essentially, I didn't believe we could win in the first place, and now having won a few, I don't believe we can keep winning. Its an awful cycle.

But that's your belief as a fan, which reminds me of our Black Caps. Failure is always on the horizon! But do you think the players feel the same? Wow we've won quite a few. Not a bad haul for 2014. I wonder if we'll get as many next year. Give them a bit more credit than that.   

It's interesting. I'd suspect it's a little different with your Atleti. They would have played la Liga, and seen their level, and how far off they were. Therefore they have a very real way of gauging exactly how much they really have in the tank... With my Lions - most of them were either playing Vodacom Cup a year ago, or facing Russia and the U.S., they literally had no way of knowing just how off they were. Who knows what winning at a level two levels higher than anything you've ever played does to your psyche.

Sometimes ignorance is bliss. Young players are not saddled with fear. Experience is obviously very handy but youthful exuberance is potentially very effective. Couple that with confidence from winning and it can offer a formidable mix.

Belief is in the mind,i have only a peripheral interest inITM and Super Rugby BUT if
could be called a supporter.It would have been Canterbury [followed them since 1953]
and the Crusaders.
Crusaders ethic has always been good standard players supporting the stars,often
slow starters,.
They seldom miss the semi-final stage at least they will be there or there abouts
come knock out time.
Black adder has had a lot of bad press but his team is still the one every one expects
most of.
To expect the Chiefs to be the same side after losing 7 players end of last season is
to be naïve at best.
The Highlanders are also liable to be surprise packet as the Bulls fans will attest when
they beat them.Home and away when Bulls were near invincible.

Well despite the appalling standard of rugby we've viewed and lack of big name signings (even bristol and Worcester seem to have signed better so far) i still believe in Dean Richards, and that he will take us forward.

The team will be predominantly filled with young local lads who have come through the academy, mixed with some top internationals.

Am i mental...or sensible. Who knows....but i do still believe.
COYF!!

The reason the boks win so many games... not just talent, simply they have an ingrained belief that come the rugby pitch they are simply better man for man... and almost always, they're proved right.

If there is a team that never looks beat and never drops their head its the boks. I've only seen the wind taken from their sail once... France 2009 AI tour... that and perhaps twickenham 2002. Even the ABs can get rattled now and again. You never rattle the boks, you can beat them sure but you never throw them off their game.

I can talk up the merits of the European game, show how England and France are the future giants of the game long-term... yet come the end of any conversation I have with a saffa he will come to the conclusion that at the next world cup, the boks will win, and the next and the next and the next.

The Hurricanes started like the Crusaders and have turned around their fortunes but the confidence they both have at the moment is in contrast to the Chiefs who seem unwilling to utilize their full attack . If the Aussie test side can transfer their growing Supwr 15 faith onto the test scene, then they'll be a threat to everyone.

I agree fa that you will never shake the Boks from their game plan. That's because they traditionally believe their pack can damage any team and their backs are there to service that belief. It's a major task to compete with the Bok pack and most teams can't. The attacking strings they have added last year make them more formidable. They have still yet to refine the balance but beat the ABs and watch their belief grow.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I agree fa that you will never shake the Boks from their game plan. That's because they traditionally believe their pack can damage any team and their backs are there to service that belief. It's a major task to compete with the Bok pack and most teams can't. The attacking strings they have added last year make them more formidable. They have still yet to refine the balance but beat the ABs and watch their belief grow.

I have a major problem with what you just said there, not because you are saying it, but because in that fact is our major obstacle. Our coaches' unwillingness to admit the game has moved on, that everyone has big packs and physical blokes escapes them.

You just need to look at our Super rugby teams this year and realise that we still don't run at gaps, we still do not support the ball carrier in space, we still have not worked on the skills necessary to play into space and offload into space.

What I don't get is why can we not add to our strengths, why not incorporate the offloading into space and increasing our skill levels to do so.

When we decide to do that I believe we can become the complete package and even the AB's will struggle to beat us.

The simple fact is teams beat us by being smarter, if you want to look at the matches we lose, then two things stand out, the opponent has found a way to negate our physicality (either by evading it or fronting up ) and then to play smart rugby with ball in hand, hitting the gaps, exploiting our errors and counter attacking on them.

Believing in yourself is one thing, but when your belief is so ingrained that your refuse to accept things can be done differently then that belief is also your downfall.

spot on BB. You still hear comments last year why didn't SA play it tight, win the game and lose the tournament. To achieve what? To recognize that playing it tight is the only way to go. SA showed if they open up too much it comes at the expense of their defence. Tweak their attack and attack in the manner you speak of and they win on both counts.