Welsh Probables v Possibles to take place on 30th May

First topic message reminder :

At the Liberty Stadium according to Twitter. Not seen it elsewhere yet.

Will be interesting to see who is available for selection and who they think are possibles

From a Dragon's point of view I'd like to see Amos, Rees, Lewis Evans, Cudd, Dixon and Tyler Morgan given a run.

Jordan Williams needs a run too ! Would like to see Gavlar too, shirts and skins, swit swoooo   

EDIT

Its yer

http://www.wru.co.uk/eng/news/30400.php

Jhamer25 wrote:I went tot he game and the atmosphere wasn't the best. Started to liven up in the last 20 though. Im praying Ken and Samson ok becuase they could be crucial in SA.
Gethin Jenkins proved that Rhodri Jones shouldn't be our second choice tighthead. Samson Lee came on and technically both slapped the welsh team saying here i am this is what i an do. Came on and dominated at the scrum. Also with Adam Jones falling off tackles now I think Samson Lee should be stating in SA (but he won't).  Rhodri Jone shad loads of potential and had already come leaps and bounds this season but is still far off. I might be being harsh becuase he is up against one of the best and most experienced prop in the world (that includes scrummaging as well) but he will be in SA as well. Gethin gave him a challenge and he couldn't match up to it.
Both Probables locks stood out for me, Jake Ball to come of the bench and add that power in the later stages.
The different was that the probables were a team that looked well coached and the possible weren't. Twice Robyn has lets u down firstly with Japan and now this. I do feel it is time for a bit of a change and bring in someone line Danny Wilson. They improved later on in the match but they had no formation or attacking plan. I mean their dummy runners weren't really fooling anyone and there were no off loads in the tackles either.
Pretty fair team, nice to see Matthew Morgan have a shot after he came on, same with Gareth Davies and Jordan Williams. Good team just hope they can stay fit.

'Let down' is strongly worded in this case as the Possibles were never expected to win. But in principle I agree. I am eternally grateful that, unless Gats and Howley are with the Lions, McBryde is restricted to the role of forwards coach. As a selector he's atrocious and as a tactician possibly even worse.

Knowsit17 wrote:

Jhamer25 wrote:I went tot he game and the atmosphere wasn't the best. Started to liven up in the last 20 though. Im praying Ken and Samson ok becuase they could be crucial in SA.
Gethin Jenkins proved that Rhodri Jones shouldn't be our second choice tighthead. Samson Lee came on and technically both slapped the welsh team saying here i am this is what i an do. Came on and dominated at the scrum. Also with Adam Jones falling off tackles now I think Samson Lee should be stating in SA (but he won't).  Rhodri Jone shad loads of potential and had already come leaps and bounds this season but is still far off. I might be being harsh becuase he is up against one of the best and most experienced prop in the world (that includes scrummaging as well) but he will be in SA as well. Gethin gave him a challenge and he couldn't match up to it.
Both Probables locks stood out for me, Jake Ball to come of the bench and add that power in the later stages.
The different was that the probables were a team that looked well coached and the possible weren't. Twice Robyn has lets u down firstly with Japan and now this. I do feel it is time for a bit of a change and bring in someone line Danny Wilson. They improved later on in the match but they had no formation or attacking plan. I mean their dummy runners weren't really fooling anyone and there were no off loads in the tackles either.
Pretty fair team, nice to see Matthew Morgan have a shot after he came on, same with Gareth Davies and Jordan Williams. Good team just hope they can stay fit.

'Let down' is strongly worded in this case as the Possibles were never expected to win. But in principle I agree. I am eternally grateful that, unless Gats and Howley are with the Lions, McBryde is restricted to the role of forwards coach. As a selector he's atrocious and as a tactician possibly even worse.

I think if you look at what Wilson has done with the Dragons (when he was there we werent quite as bad as we are now) the u20's and especially turning the Scarlets pack around to probably a strong a scrummaging unit as the ospreys it is time he is brought in

So in hindsight do you think this was a good idea?

Will the coaches have learnt anything?

It looks as though Morgan may have earned a call up from his performance but then there is no cover with a full time full back beyond Williams.

I think it was a good idea, I would do it again but it would be nice to have the FORM two sides playing against each other.

What's the latest with the injuries?

Matthew Morgan is a bit of strange one for me, I dont think his best position is flyhalf, he needs to run in broken field play, but as a back 3 player I'd still say Jordan and Liam are better.

Add to the fact he is tiny by international rugby standards, he will get bounced by the Springboks. I do hope he proves me wrong.

the whole principle of the possibles v probables is good, however firstly in wales' case there needs to be everyone fit, as yesterday proved there is a gulf in class between our 1st choice players and many of (in reality) 3rd choice players. I mean in theory the possibles backline would look like this
9) Davies
10) Priestland
11) Jordan Williams
12) scott Williams
13) Corey Allen
14) Eli Walker
15) Liam Williams

and that is missing out players such as Beck, Owen Williams, Hook, Owen Williams (fly half), Patchell, Amos who either already had international caps or have the potential to earn caps.

also in reality they should mix up the teams completely as having the probables train together who already have systems, moves/calls, set plays etc in place and know each others styles and have played together for a large number of games, gives a huge advantage over the possibles which while allowing them a run out to get the systems sorted, doesn't give a full match intensity feel to the game

i think the biggest mismatch yesterday was the front row

Jenkins v Rhodriv Jones
Adam v Rob Evans

If it had been samson lee and paul james you would have seen a more even match IMO

GavinDragon wrote:

Knowsit17 wrote:

Jhamer25 wrote:I went tot he game and the atmosphere wasn't the best. Started to liven up in the last 20 though. Im praying Ken and Samson ok becuase they could be crucial in SA.
Gethin Jenkins proved that Rhodri Jones shouldn't be our second choice tighthead. Samson Lee came on and technically both slapped the welsh team saying here i am this is what i an do. Came on and dominated at the scrum. Also with Adam Jones falling off tackles now I think Samson Lee should be stating in SA (but he won't).  Rhodri Jone shad loads of potential and had already come leaps and bounds this season but is still far off. I might be being harsh becuase he is up against one of the best and most experienced prop in the world (that includes scrummaging as well) but he will be in SA as well. Gethin gave him a challenge and he couldn't match up to it.
Both Probables locks stood out for me, Jake Ball to come of the bench and add that power in the later stages.
The different was that the probables were a team that looked well coached and the possible weren't. Twice Robyn has lets u down firstly with Japan and now this. I do feel it is time for a bit of a change and bring in someone line Danny Wilson. They improved later on in the match but they had no formation or attacking plan. I mean their dummy runners weren't really fooling anyone and there were no off loads in the tackles either.
Pretty fair team, nice to see Matthew Morgan have a shot after he came on, same with Gareth Davies and Jordan Williams. Good team just hope they can stay fit.

'Let down' is strongly worded in this case as the Possibles were never expected to win. But in principle I agree. I am eternally grateful that, unless Gats and Howley are with the Lions, McBryde is restricted to the role of forwards coach. As a selector he's atrocious and as a tactician possibly even worse.

I think if you look at what Wilson has done with the Dragons (when he was there we weren't quite as bad as we are now) the u20's and especially turning the Scarlets pack around to probably a strong a scrummaging unit as the ospreys it is time he is brought in

It's just Mcbryde had the chance to show his coaching skills in japan but instead we struggled to beat Japan in the first test and were abysmal in the second.
I felt let down after the game because even though the possibles weren't expected to win, I expected a much closer game and i think of lot of others did as well.

Rhodri was a very promising loosehead before we was converted to a poor tighthead, perhaps Gatland has seen the light and is going to use him as cover for loosehead.

Hopefully Lee is not seriously injured as he is probably no tighthead now (if only Gatland opened his eyes).

Last knights game was a farce by the second half it was pretty much an uncontested training session. Puts Martin Morgan's performance into perspective, he is 3rd choice 15 at the Ospreys and now second choice for Wales!

Morgan is a good player,still room for smaller players in the test arena if they have ability

Shane was never clattered by SA, he jut danced around them

Seagultaf wrote:Rhodri was a very promising loosehead before we was converted to a poor tighthead, perhaps Gatland has seen the light and is going to use him as cover for loosehead.

Hopefully Lee is not seriously injured as he is probably no tighthead now (if only Gatland opened his eyes).

Last knights game was a farce by the second half it was pretty much an uncontested training session. Puts Martin Morgan's performance into perspective, he is 3rd choice 15 at the Ospreys and now second choice for Wales!

Spot on. I've been pulling my hair out over Samson Lee all year. Also does anybody else recognise that Melon cant scrummage against decent props anymore? I was at the Scarlets Blues game a couple of weeks back. Melon went up ... he went down ... he spun around 90deg. I didnt see him go forward in one scrum. when he came off scrummaging actually happened. My front row would be Samson, Ken and Paul James for the summer ... please Odin in Vallhalla let Samson be fit for the series!

GavinDragon wrote:i think the biggest mismatch yesterday was the front row

Jenkins v Rhodriv Jones
Adam v Rob Evans

If it had been samson lee and paul james you would have seen a more even match IMO

Only is Lee had lasted more than 5 mins

I know the game wass over and there were a lot of changes by the time Morgan came on but leats he tried something different and not just kick it all the time.

I (like most) think he is to small for International rugby and lets be honest he may get a run out in the mid-week match but will only figure in the test if Biggar or Hook get injured but if he does get a chance then lets judge him after that.

It may well be a harsh and painful learning curve for him but lets see what happens.

I'm not so sure the gulf was that big between some of players. However the possibles didn't have a functioning pack. Ok granted a lot of players in England where unavailable but playing Rob Evans at Loosehead was always going to end up in tears. For me personally against Adam Jones putting a youngster against him was never going to really test him. I can only assume Phil John was injured because he would have been my automatic choice. He has been a consistent performer for the Scarlets and would have deserved a shot at a cap in South Africa. I'm not trying to be negative against Rob because I think he could become a very good loosehead eventually but he's not proven himself at regional level let alone international standard.

Hook at Fly half was another poor choice. I think the Welsh management already know he's not an option. Personally I would have started with Tovey who again based on form would have deserved a shot. Matthew Morgan should also have had a shot at starting. Personally I just don't think Hook is the same player he once was in terms of taking people on.

Major plus side though is I though Elis Jenkins looked good at openside and we are blessed with options in that position. Its a shame he didn't get a shot at playing in a ascending pack.

I'm also assuming that Dixon was ruled out for inside centre because of his U20 involvement because for me he would easily have ousted Shingler at 12.

Bottom line is that given the amount of pressure the possibles had to soak up and with so little ball to use you cant really judge any of the backs in their team. I actually think there is so much more depth in Wales but this team seemed to be picked on potential and while I commend that you do really need to select a fair bit of experience against a seasoned international side. For me the team for the possibles should have looked like this:-

1. Phil John
2. Matthew Rees
3. Samson Lee
4. Jake Ball
5. Ian Evans
6. Andrew Coombs
7. Elis Jenkins
8. Dan Baker
9. Gareth Davies
10. Jason Tovey / Matthew Morgan
11. Aled Brew
12. Corey Allen
13. Ross Wardle
14. Matthew Pewtner
15. Lee Byrne

Assuming so many French players where available I would have thought given Brew's and Byrne's exit back to Wales should have merited inclusion if only to really add some experience in the backline. Like I said though I don't know if injuries played a part in the absence of some of the players.

On a side note how come the Ospreys Openside (Sam Lewis) wasn't in the frame for the game for the possibles? Injured? He has had a key season for the ospreys and based on pro 12 form must easily be behind Warburton and Tipuric.

WM,

I think John wasn't an option due to fact Gatland doesn't see him as long term option, I think he would rather try youngsters than go 'backwards' and pick ageing players who have never figured under his tenure in the past.

I don't see where the what the ageing issue is with Gatland. The Boks don;t give a $hit what age you are otherwise they wouldn't; have brought back Mayfield, Shalk Burger, Bakkies Botha, Steenkamp. They give the Boks much more depth than we have in the up and coming tour. He Gatland won't go for Lee Byrne who is one of the best full backs in the top 14 for one of the  best clubs and still in great form. Also we have injured int hat position and look to a pretty average player in Dan fish for the previous match. Where it the sense. Phil John and Joe Bearman are another two who spring to mind the past two seasons. Yes the world cup is next year and we do need to keep one eye on it but it seems to my that Gatland is building to the one in 2019 not 2015.
Overall the game just seemed useless and was a big flop.

Jhamer25 wrote:I don't see where the what the ageing issue is with Gatland. The Boks don;t give a $hit what age you are otherwise they wouldn't; have brought back Mayfield, Shalk Burger, Bakkies Botha, Steenkamp. They give the Boks much more depth than we have in the up and coming tour. He Gatland won't go for Lee Byrne who is one of the best full backs in the top 14 for one of the  best clubs and still in great form. Also we have injured int hat position and look to a pretty average player in Dan fish for the previous match. Where it the sense. Phil John and Joe Bearman are another two who spring to mind the past two seasons. Yes the world cup is next year and we do need to keep one eye on it but it seems to my that Gatland is building to the one in 2019 not 2015.
Overall the game just seemed useless and was a big flop.

To ignore Lee Byrne IMHO is madness. He is still arguably Wales' best full back. If you're selecting Henson, then why not Byrne?

Having been put through the mill as a supporter with the Welsh teams of the 90s we have had more success with Gatland than have had for a long long time but he contradicts himself with his selection policy on so many levels.

Like has been said Henson but no Byrne
Picking overseas players but again no Byrne or Peel
Sticking with certain players no matter what then other players get little or no gametime

I read the final list of players selected for the tour and other than Matthew Morgan any surprises? - none. Pretty much exactly as expected before the trial game. Injuries have made selection easy because in most positions we are down to an obvious 2 or three names.

Like most I thought Morgan did well when he came on and took advantage of the game having broken up and a poor possibles defence. But I have seen him do this before, running in open field is what he's know for isn't it? It was almost as if Gatland hadn't seen him before. Morgan still doesn't convince me he can cut it playing a full on test match for 80 minutes from 10 or 15.

offload,

He doesn't convince most of us but I think he at least deserves a chance to try and prove us wrong.

With regards Matthew Morgan, I am not too sure about his inclusion. There is no doubting he is a class act, and has skills that most of the squad can only dream of. However I can not see him getting a start, so that means he will be a bench option. And even then I doubt Gats would risk having him as the fly half cover, just in case worst case scenario happens and Biggar limps off five mins into the game. So that would leave Morgan as the outside back bench cover, but with Hook most likely to be the fly half cover would there be any point in putting Morgan on the bench just to cover fullback?

Also, maybe a bit bias, but Morgan and Jordan Williams are both very similar, but Jordan has had far more top level exposure this season, and covers the same positions (plus wing) so I would personally chose him before Morgan too.

SS,

I agree, maybe Morgan will get some game time in the warm up game but I cant see him being involved in the tests unless Biggar or Hook are injured plus Shingler is an option at 10 with more exposure.

I would expect to see Davies/Rh Williams, Hook and Allen as our backs on the bench for the tests.

Yeah I would agree with that. I can't see past us using our tried and tested method of physical lumps (with skills if possible), so I would assume we will end up with a team looking something like

Jenkins, Owens/Rees, Jones, Charteris, AWJ, Faletau/Baker, Lydiate, Faletau/Baker;
Phillips, Biggar, North, Roberts, Foxy, Cuthbert, Williams
(Owens/Rees, James, Rh Jones, Ball, Turnbull; Davies, Hook, Allen)

Yeah that's what I expect to see though not what I would pick I would go for:

James Owens Jones
AWJ Charteris
Lydiate Baker Faletau (Though lot depends on Dans injury)

Davies Biggar
North Roberts JD Cuthbert
Williams

Jenkins Rees Lee Ball Shingler Phillips Hook Allen

Not much difference I know but subtle changes.

Personally I would rather see us shake things up a bit, after all we know that the South Africans are physical, so maybe if he had a solid front pack and more skills behind we could catch them off guard, and then bring on some lumps off the bench to pummel them physically when we have run them ragged first. I would go for

James, Owens, Lee, AWJ, Ball, Lydiate, Shingler, Faletau;
G Davies, Biggar, North, Foxy, Allen, Jordan, Williams
(Rees, Jenkins, A Jones, Charteris, Baker; Phillips, Morgan, Cuthbert)

SS,

I wouldn't have a problem at with that line up and would really like to see how it went though I do like Cuthbert but wouldn't hurt to as you say shake it up.

Very much doubt we see that line up starting though.

For the first test I'd play it safe and go with

1. Jenkins
2. Owens
3. Jones
4. AWJ
5. Ball / Charteris
6. Lydiate if fit
7. Faletau
8. Baker
9. Davies
10. Biggar
11. North
12. JR
13. JD
14. Cuthbert
15. Williams

16. James
17. Rees
18. Lee
19. Ball / Charteris
20. A Shingler
21. Hook
22. Allen
23. Phillips

IM,

I think that's pretty much what we will see, the backrow will be the interesting call.  

For me Lydiate or Faletau can play 7 so maybe they could go left and right rather than just 6 and 7.  If Dans injured then I guess its Shingler or Turnbull at 6 or if he's fit then I guess they could leave him and Faletau in their natural positions so there is some stability and plump for Shingler or Turnbull at 7.

Also think Phillips will start at 9 but hope not.

i expect shingler to start 7 , prob put him there on Tuesday warm up game for first half .

Yes i think the midweek game selection will be interesting. Do we risk playing Adam Jones for match fitness. This tour will give every one a new mind set of where he is now adays and how he will cope next season. He hasn't played much so far this year and has had a longer break than other ospreys players. No excuses of him being tired. This tour will define his world class credentials.
Would you guys like to see Adam Jones play a half in the mid week game?
For the mid week game i would go with:
1. Paul James
2. Matthew Rees
3. Adam Jones
4. Jake Ball
5. Ian Evans
6. Josh Turnball
7. Aaron Shingler
8. Dan Baker

9. Gareth Davies
10. James Hook
11. Jordan Williams
12. Aaron Shingler
13. Cory Allen
14. Alex Cuthbert
15. Matthew Morgan

Know that is a good mixed team. I feel Samson lee or Rhodri will be tighthead for the mid week game but my first choice at the moment is Samson Lee and i wouldn't risk him but he is still third choice in Gatlands eye (god knows why).
But it will be a chance for player like Matthew Rees,Gareth Davies, James Hook, Jordan Williams, Dan Baker and Aaron Shingler to make their last case for the starting spot in the first game. Especially Jordan Williams, Gareth Davies and Dan Baker if they play well they should in the starting XV come the satruday

For the warm-up against the Kings (granting all are fit to play) I'd mix it up with a few of the wildcards without going overboard on the inexperience, so something like:

1. Jenkins
2. Rees
3. Lee (Rhodri if Lee needs more recovery time)
4. Charteris
5. Ball
6. Lydiate
7. Turnbull
8. Baker
9. R Williams/G Davies
10. Hook
11. J Williams
12. Allen
13. Davies
14. Cuthbert
15. Morgan

16. Owens
17. James
18. A Jones
19. Evans
20. Faletau
21. R Williams/G Davies
22. Biggar
23. North

Finalise the squad for the first test based off the performance of that side.

Fair point about Lydiate, if he is so important to Gatlands scheme against the Boks then he will need game time I guess. Can't throw in our best tackler against the brutal south African ball carriers.

Jhamer25 wrote:Yes i think the midweek game selection will be interesting. Do we risk playing Adam Jones for match fitness. This tour will give every one a new mind set of where he is now adays and how he will cope next season. He hasn't played much so far this year and has had a longer break than other ospreys players. No excuses of him being tired. This tour will define his world class credentials.
Would you guys like to see Adam Jones play a half in the mid week game?
For the mid week game i would go with:
1. Paul James
2. Matthew Rees
3. Adam Jones
4. Jake Ball
5. Ian Evans
6. Josh Turnball
7. Aaron Shingler
8. Dan Baker

9. Gareth Davies
10. James Hook
11. Jordan Williams
12. Aaron Shingler
13. Cory Allen
14. Alex Cuthbert
15. Matthew Morgan

Know that is a good mixed team. I feel Samson lee or Rhodri will be tighthead  for the mid week game but my first choice at the moment is Samson Lee and i wouldn't risk him but he is still third choice in Gatlands eye (god knows why).
But it will be a chance for player like Matthew Rees,Gareth Davies, James Hook, Jordan Williams, Dan Baker and Aaron Shingler to make their last case for the starting spot in the first game. Especially Jordan Williams, Gareth Davies and Dan Baker if they play well they should in the starting XV come the satruday

JH,

Some say that A Shingler isn't good enough to play 1 position let alone 2 . I would be tempted to give Lydiate a good 40 minutes to, could be big ask to just chuck him in old in the 1st test.

I also think it's important to not have too inexperienced a back row. It'd be decent prep to play at least two of the three possible starters together for the Kings. If Lydiate can play I'd have him start at blindside with Baker at 8. If he's still out of commission shift Shingler/Turnbull to blindside and draft in Faletau at openside imo.

Think you mean to have Steve Shingler partnering Allen in midfield, not Aaron   

Knowsit17 wrote:I also think it's important to not have too inexperienced a back row. It'd be decent prep to play at least two of the three possible starters together for the Kings. If Lydiate can play I'd have him start at blindside with Baker at 8. If he's still out of commission shift Shingler/Turnbull to blindside and draft in Faletau at openside imo.

Think you mean to have Steve Shingler partnering Allen in midfield, not Aaron   

Oh sh!t yea haha  

For me it has to be:

Liam Williams
Alex Cuthbert
Jonathan Davies
Jamie Roberts
George North
Dan Biggar
Mike Phillips

Toby Faletau
Josh Turnbull
Dan Lydiate
Jake Ball
Alun Wyn Jones
Samson Lee
Ken Owens
Paul James

Gethin Jenkins
Mathew Rees
Adam Jones
Ian Evans
Aaron Shingler

Gareth Davies
Steve Shingler
Jordan Williams

I think that team has the grunt to get enough possession and the firepower to do some damage. I've tried to go for subs with potential to have a big impact and for some balanced cover.

TBS, I'd go with your team except switch around Gareth Davies and Phillips. Hook for Shingler on bench, and Charteris for his brother. But I think Gatland will start with a front row of Jenkins, Rees, Jones and probably won't change the back-row (I can't see Lydiate being fit).

Has Charteris got a brother

I hope Jenkins doesn't let his team mates down with his poor Scrumaging.

Hope Scrumpy doesn't come on hear and continuously go on about his obsession with Jenkins' poor scrummaging.

Oops to late.

 

This trial highlighted a major issue we've known of for a while now...Cuthbert's defence. Its non existant at times - morgan ran round him from a standing start in his own 22.

He's only got a starting place because he's a big chap and there's no one who can challenge for the spot right now.

It's also a bit worrying that Wales gave scotland a pasting in the six nations when they had 14 men and now the probables dish out a beating to the possibles...yet Cuthbert doesn't get on the scoresheet in either.

Yet he still has a strike rate of nearly 1 try every 2 games so cant be that bad.

I think its more a case of teams have got use to playing big guys like Cuthbert and North on the wing and have a plan to combat it.

I have always said that it works best if you have one of each on the wings. a North type player on one wing then a S Williams or J Robinson type on the other just as balance.

I agree.

I am not a fan of Cuthbert at all. To being with it was just because he was a lump of a wing that seemed tackle shy (a welsh Banahan almost), but watching him this season he also seems to have a bit of Prima Dona in his attitude too. I recall him calling a ref a f"£$ing amateur when he was pinged for holding on (which he was) in one game for the Blues. The Scarlets V Blues game at PYS, if I remember correctly, he gave a pen away, argued with the ref, lost ten yards, and then went back to his wing whinging at the linesman, and didn't spot grumbling for about 5 mins. However, given all of that, IF Gatland wants to use the battering ram tactic then Cuthbert is the only logical choice, as there are no other physical type players (Dirkson/Sanjay are options but a bit volatile to put it lightly).