Mens' semi-final build-up

So, after the thrills and spills of the last few days, how are people viewing the semi-finals? Conventional wisdom suggests that Dimitrov v Djokovic is more likely to go the distance, as Raonic is the type of player whom Federer tends to do well against. With Nadal out, Federer must be aware of the excellent opportunity he has - how will he react? Raonic has been v solid, v focused, but can he keep serving the same percentages and does he have enough in his game to stop Federer? Djokovic hasn't been consistently convincing, but he's still here, and is playing v gritty when the chips are down. Dimitrov is probably in the form of his life, but lets not forget how poor Murray was, and whilst Dimitrov was impressive at Queens, he did almost choke away victory in the final against Lopez.

For me, I can see Dimitrov bamboozling Djokovic early on, but I expect Nole to hang in there and play his way into the match. I see it going to 4, possibly 5 sets, but Djokovic to prevail, and Dimitrov to freeze on a couple of big points.

Federer v Raonic - Raonic has improved - he used to be rather uncomfortable on grass. He looks v sharp on the big points these days and has added a bit to his game (though essentially remains a bit like Roddick in his early years) - it won't be a push-over for Federer. That said, if Federer can get a break, I can see Raonic's confidence crumbling and his serving percentage dropping. I can see this going to at least 2 tie-breaks, with Fed edging it in 4.

As much as I would like to think Dimitrov would trouble Djokovic, I just have a feeling that Novak will come out firing on all cylinders. It must be a slight relief knowing Murray won't be facing him. Novak will move Dimitrov around the court unlike Murray. Novak in 3.

Now Federer v Raonic is interesting. 18 months since their last encounter. Raonic has made strides in that time. I think this could be close. Federer in 5.

Both are tough to predict.

Federer v Raonic: I slightly favour Federer. I've been impressed by Raonic. His movement now appears to have developed beyond that of a wardrobe, and his serve has been typically effective.

But I think Federer is the master of handling a big serve. If that threat is neutered, I think Federer takes it.

Djokovic v Dimitrov: This depends largely on whether it is Djokovic or Drunkovic who turns up.

If Novak can play without evoking the Chuckle Brothers and stay on his feet for more than 15 seconds, he probably starts as favourite. But Dimi has more than an outside chance. He's played some very good tennis this tournament. He looked great yesterday but Andy gave him the freedom of Centre Court, so I'm not going to go overboard just yet.

I'm finding it tough to call but I'd say that Dimi probably needs to win the first set. If he does that, then it's anyone's.

Dimi was great against a below-par Andy but Andy had played faultlessly til then, so you cannot always judge a future performance on a past one.
I expect Dimi's UEs to rise sharply against Djoko who has been rising without trace in this tourney.
  Raonic is playing well and says he's not playing a seven-time Wimbledon winner, but he's playing a 32-year-old man. Trouble is he IS playing a seven-time winner, who has won all EIGHT of his Wimbledon semis.

I'm pretty much with others assessments. I'd love Dimi to shine but as the OP says let's not forget Murray was rubbish and he almost lost to Lopez at Queens.

I take Djokovic there, solidity just exposing Grigors flakiness.

On the other it's tough. I don't think Federer is playing well. Had Stan not had some problem I'm 90% sure Fed would be out, and for all the worship on his 4th round win (a) he made loads of errors, and (b) it was Robredo. Raonic also showed he has more than a serve yesterday. On the other hand, this is Fed in a Wimbledon semi. That's a sacred thing so I have to lean to the Maestro.

Going to the final, sadly I can't see Federer beating Djokovic. His 'bigger' serve will mean nothing to Nole, who eats serves for breakfast. We can do all the "if it's damp and if the roof's on" stuff but at the end of the day Federer is nearly at the end of the day and he coughs up plenty of free stuff now. To be really honest I have two reasons to hope for Dimi: I like him, and Fed might beat him. He won't beat Djokovic.

Djokovic in 3 - I haven't seen yesterday's matches but I just don't see Dimitrov being anywhere near solid enough based on previous matches to threaten Novak.

Federer in 4 - I think Raonic will probably choke this a bit. Can see him grabbing a set but at some stage he will blink when faced with a slam final.

I expect Djokovic to blow Grigor away - he might flag temporarily and drop a set but he's got everything to play for here with Murray & Nadal out and a potential final against a tennis pensioner.

I'd like to think Fed will prevail over Raonic, he has to find a way to handle the power of the shots coming his way - normally well within his capabilities but he looked rather slow and a bit overpowered against Stan.

Born Slippy wrote:Djokovic in 3 - I haven't seen yesterday's matches

If you'd seen yesterday's matches, you might not predict Djokovic in 3.  

Novak produced a slapstick routine for two sets.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Djokovic in 3 - I haven't seen yesterday's matches

If you'd seen yesterday's matches, you might not predict Djokovic in 3.  

Novak produced a slapstick routine for two sets.

True but both top seeds were a bit phased by Nads / Murray crashing out.

Anyway the slapstick routine was ample against Cilic, ND just did the necessary to get through.

Interesting matchups - Gut instinct is in a Raonic-Dimi final - Raonic is more likely to win (neither have had bewildering success, but I think Raonic's greater experience in finals would give him the edge), but Dimitrov is more likely to beat Djokovic than Raonic Federer. I think Dimi can match Djokovic stroke for stroke and stride for stride - but he can't match him over five sets. Raonic would fancy his chances against Nole in a final as well, as he served 20+ aces against him on clay, and Djokovic has conceded that he can't read his serves. Which game is first up? Playing Djokovic in the sun seems a lot like fighting Superman away from the sun.

bogbrush wrote:
Going to the final, sadly I can't see Federer beating Djokovic. His 'bigger' serve will mean nothing to Nole, who eats serves for breakfast. We can do all the "if it's damp and if the roof's on" stuff but at the end of the day Federer is nearly at the end of the day and he coughs up plenty of free stuff now. To be really honest I have two reasons to hope for Dimi: I like him, and Fed might beat him. He won't beat Djokovic.

He's got to get to the final first - and that will be a hell of an achievement in itself, win or lose.

reckoner wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Djokovic in 3 - I haven't seen yesterday's matches

If you'd seen yesterday's matches, you might not predict Djokovic in 3.  

Novak produced a slapstick routine for two sets.

True but both top seeds were a bit phased by Nads / Murray crashing out.

Anyway the slapstick routine was ample against Cilic, ND just did the necessary to get through.

I just hope he wears the right shoes tomorrow.

That second pair, which were identical in every way to the previous pair, were much better.

The poor love could barely stand up in the first pair. Apart from in the first set where he was comfortably in front.

HM Murdoch wrote:

reckoner wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

Born Slippy wrote:Djokovic in 3 - I haven't seen yesterday's matches

If you'd seen yesterday's matches, you might not predict Djokovic in 3.  

Novak produced a slapstick routine for two sets.

True but both top seeds were a bit phased by Nads / Murray crashing out.

Anyway the slapstick routine was ample against Cilic, ND just did the necessary to get through.

I just hope he wears the right shoes tomorrow.

That second pair, which were identical in every way to the previous pair, were much better.

The poor love could barely stand up in the first pair. Apart from in the first set where he was comfortably in front.

 
If it helps to blame the shoes, blame the shoes! At least it wasn't an argument with the girlfriend or his knees... (controversial I know)

Federer's baseline game looked non-existent against Wawrinka. The only other time I can remember him looking so slow, ineffectual and overpowered on grass was against Tsonga in 2011. From all accounts his baseline game hadn't been much better in the previous rounds but he'd been serving like a dream and that's basically what's carried him this far.

I think the birth of the twins has really set him back. Prior to that he looked sharp. Since then he's looked tired and old. To be honest I'm amazed that he has the energy to still compete with so many children around (okay two of them probably don't do very much, but the five year olds must be a nightmare)

I still think he may edge past Raonic but he's gonna have to find his baseline groove to stand any chance against Djokovic. It's possible he can rediscover some form in time but I think it's unlikely.

for me its clear a federer djokovic final. any other combination would surprise me. and any outcome is fine for me in terms of preference

its djokovic regaining number 1 sooner than august(but it was bound to happen anyway)
or federer making the record harder to equal (if it wasnt impossible yet)
or a new gun winning meaning a possible turning point in tennis

Should Djokovic make it to the final, he'll be playing a high stakes game emotionally.

Five defeats in six slam finals (including the last three) must weigh heavy on the confidence.

Should he lose Bo5 against either a nearly 33 year old Federer or the world number 9 appearing in his first ever slam final, there really will be no coming back from that.

Neither are an easy opponent, but when you are a 27 year old top seed playing in your 14th slam final, you have to take these opportunities. They are rarely more favourable.

As long as Raonic doesn't win, I'll be happy. (Don't really want Dimitrov to win either )

The Special Juan wrote:As long as Raonic doesn't win, I'll be happy.  (Don't really want Dimitrov to win either )

Would it be like a black fly in your Chardonnay?

For all thinking Fed will have a walkover in Semis get ready for a shock.

1]Canadians are having their time, we are seeing Genie already making rounds, so won't be surprised if Raonic has his time cut out too.

2]Roanic has always troubled Fed in the past taking a set on most occasions, and this Milos is way better than what he was, more experienced, more perfections, acquired new skills, polished forehand and backhand, in comparison Fed has waned out completely, he knows himself he is very lucky to have survived the QF with that kind of play.

3]Fed is struggling with his movements, power and precision but ofcourse that smart brain to outfox the opponent is still there, but that alone won't be enough.

Last but not least Raonic more than likely to continue the upset trend of the tournament if the QF Fed return.

Fed can really roll down the years for 1 good match, so far it hasn't happened at this years Wimbledon but tats due to lack of quality opponents as well, so may be we can expect one tomorrow.

I would pit Raonic 75-25 % Fav for tomorrow's match.

On the other semi, Djoko will prove he is no Andy and I believe too he will put Dimitrov to where he belongs. Djoko in 4.

Becker is actually helping Djoko get better in grass, you can never count a champion out.

Becker-Edberg grass court finals as coach would be interesting.

Fed in 3.

Dimi in 5.

Jahu wrote:Fed in 3.

Dimi in 5.

Jahu your results would be sweet but its more anticipation than reality

Raonic in 4

Djoko in 4.

Raonic and Genie the new champs.  

DirectView2 wrote:

Jahu wrote:Fed in 3.

Dimi in 5.

Jahu your results would be sweet but its more anticipation than reality

Raonic in 4

Djoko in 4.

Raonic and Genie the new champs.  

I will wear a Tutu the entire of next week if Milos flukes his way to the title. Fed-Djok will be taking the prize.

djoko in 5
federer in 4

I give Dimi a decent shot tomorrow - he's demonstrated that he's made big strides in the physical and mental sides of his game. If Novak actually plays as he can do, though, he'll win. He just hasn't quite looked comfortable at the tournament yet, not as serene as he has been in the past. Is pressure weighing on him? Still expect Nole to win in...five.

Federer should beat Raonic. The serve is lethal and he won't get many opportunities, but we shouldn't forget that we have by far the two best servers in the tournament playing each other today - Milos will barely get any chances on the Fed serve either. And he absolutely must take any he gets to have a chance. BB is right when he says that Stan was outclassing Fed from the back, but Federer has a funny way of hanging tough in matches these days when things are going against him (sans vs Nadal and Nole). I reckon it's Federer to weather the early storm and get through in 4 after grinding Milos down.

After that, who knows? HM is right, though. '27 year old #1 seed loses to 33 year old #4' is not happy reading, no matter how good the #4 is, so that's additional pressure on Djokovic. And Federer will be fighting tooth and nail if he makes the final.

JM, we will need photos of you in that tutu if Milos does win. I don't actually dismiss his chances entirely. He certainly seems to have added to his game and his fitness since he's been with Ivan.

reckoner wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:As long as Raonic doesn't win, I'll be happy.  (Don't really want Dimitrov to win either )

Would it be like a black fly in your Chardonnay?

A Canadian fly in my Pimms

Just heard an interesting piece from Sampras saying he didn't feel the drive and desire to win multiple Slams until he was 23.

Dimi are you listening??

Federer in 4 and Djokovic in 3.

The big question mark here is how are Raonic and Dimi going to react to being in their first slam SF ? Under normal circumstances (round of 16 at a masters or something), I think they both have a shot, but one or both of them could go completely to pieces, like Lisicki in last year's women's final.

MrInvisible wrote:Dimitrov is probably in the form of his life, but lets not forget how poor Murray was, and whilst Dimitrov was impressive at Queens, he did almost choke away victory in the final against Lopez.

Yeah, exactly this - can't see Djokovic playing as poorly and he will get plenty of chances in Dimitrov's service games. Djokovic in 3 or 4 sets.

For Fed-Raonic, I'm really not sure. Fed was not that solid in the QF and needs to be very solid against Raonic. A couple of loose shots and the set can be gone against Raonic (then again I thought that against Muller, and look how that went, haha). I think it really depends on Raonic nerve holds and whether those first serves keep going in. I am really hoping for Fed though. I cannot see anything attractive in Raonic's tennis at all.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Just heard an interesting piece from Sampras saying he didn't feel the drive and desire to win multiple Slams until he was 23.

Dimi are you listening??

I remember Pete saying how relieved of pressure he felt to lose the year after his 1st US Open. Jimmy Connors more or less had a cardiac and was looking to rip his face off.

bogbrush wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Just heard an interesting piece from Sampras saying he didn't feel the drive and desire to win multiple Slams until he was 23.

Dimi are you listening??

I remember Pete saying how relieved of pressure he felt to lose the year after his 1st US Open. Jimmy Connors more or less had a cardiac and was looking to rip his face off.

Well it didn't harm his career

legendkillarV2 wrote:Just heard an interesting piece from Sampras saying he didn't feel the drive and desire to win multiple Slams until he was 23.

Dimi are you listening??

Thats desire for multiple Slams but about compare the twos desire for first slam   

Dimitrov should have hired Becker as his coach like 3-4 years back.

DirectView2 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Just heard an interesting piece from Sampras saying he didn't feel the drive and desire to win multiple Slams until he was 23.

Dimi are you listening??

Thats desire for multiple Slams but about compare the twos desire for first slam   

Dimitrov should have hired Becker as his coach like 3-4 years back.

Well winning the first is the challenge, but winning more is an even bigger one and one he should aim for.

I think Dimi is fine with Rasheed, but once he gets what he wants from him there is always another coach in the wings waiting to take him further.

DirectView2 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Just heard an interesting piece from Sampras saying he didn't feel the drive and desire to win multiple Slams until he was 23.

Dimi are you listening??

Thats desire for multiple Slams but about compare the twos desire for first slam   

Dimitrov should have hired Rasheed as his coach like 3-4 years back.

Corrected.

Boris is good fun but for tennis coaching surely a proper trainer is better.

With the build up of the mens semi, my favourite opponent of Roger's appeared in 2007 at Wimbledon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf8_fBZDGnM

Love it, lk!! Centre Court with no roof just looks.... wrong!

I love the dialogue at the end.

Federer : Sure I was happy with the point when I was like happy he challenged because he was gonna burn one. How in the world was that ball in??!!?? I mean Poopie. Look at the score now. It is just killing me. The system is screwed!

They should immortalise that somewhere

I think both matches could go either way but I would favor the veteran in each of them.

Fed vs Raonic will depend on how Fed plays.  If Fed is playing well, I do not think Raonic is at the level (yet?) where he will win.

I am hoping Dimitrov can overcome Djokovic but I expect Nole will be too good in the end.  Dimi has improved a lot and I think his game suits grass court better than Nole's game, but I do not know if that will be enough.

Good luck to Roger and Dimi.

legendkillarV2 wrote:With the build up of the mens semi, my favourite opponent of Roger's appeared in 2007 at Wimbledon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf8_fBZDGnM

His h2h with Hawkeye is abysmal.

I love the one where HE didn't challenge, and it clipped, followed immediately by a tiny edge that Nadal challenged and he got.
Well, with hindsight I love it, wasn't quite so funny at the time.

More I'm thinking about this, the more I think Dimitrov might have a shot. His power is very big, if he stays with Novak when it gets tough he may just make it.

Yes,Murray wasn't great but the match wasn't close. That third set was a beat down. The guy could, I think, have handled a better Murray.

I'm still leaning to Djokovic, but as Murdoch says if he has a funny one he could be gone.

bogbrush wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:With the build up of the mens semi, my favourite opponent of Roger's appeared in 2007 at Wimbledon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf8_fBZDGnM

His h2h with Hawkeye is abysmal.

I love the one where HE didn't challenge, and it clipped, followed immediately by a tiny edge that Nadal challenged and he got.
Well, with hindsight I love it, wasn't quite so funny at the time.

I have to admit at the time I thought it was brilliant because he chirped away at the umpire and even he didn't know what to say!

The fact he turned the match around after the 4th set was quite brilliant.

He did look done didn't he? Especially when he had to save all those break points early in the 5th.

I think 2007 was just as good a match as 2008, but weight of hysteria has dominated. At least it finished in the daytime!

Rogers rare moments of losing it with Umpires are quite funny, mainly because he comes over all entitled, like not just arguing but wanting Hawkeye switched off. My personal favourite was at the USO 2009; "don't tell me what the f*cking rules are!" (Though he was right that JMDP was way over time on appeals and the Ump shouldn't have admitted at least one).

I see Djokovic is on first.

Blimey, if he loses Federer will be able to taste it.

bogbrush wrote:Rogers rare moments of losing it with Umpires are quite funny, mainly because he comes over all entitled, like not just arguing but wanting Hawkeye switched off.

Yes, that was hilarious.

bogbrush wrote:I see Djokovic is on first.

Blimey, if he loses Federer will be able to taste it.

I think Roger can taste it already.  Which I think is not good for his chances tomorrow.  Someone remarked here after Nadal's loss that Federer tends to play poorly in the match right after Rafa loses.  As odd as it sounds, I think there is something to it.  The moment Rafa loses, the tournament changes from one he cannot win to one that he can win.  And I think the pressure can tell at times, and maybe even more so now that he knows he will not have many more chances.  Sort of like in that RG where he had a couple of wobbly matches after Rafa went out.

On tennis ability alone, I think Roger must feel he has a chance against everyone left in the draw - including Nole.  He has 2-1 record against Nole this year, and grass is not Nole's favorite surface.  I do not think Roger would be going into that match thinking it was not winnable.

That said, I do think Nole is #1 favorite to win it all this year.

World cup vs Wimbledon tomorrow, not sure which one I gonna watch, can't skip Germany vs France neither.

invisiblecoolers wrote:World cup vs Wimbledon tomorrow, not sure which one I gonna watch, can't skip Germany vs France neither.

Germany vs France all the way.  Hopefully Roger can beat Rao in my absence.