PGA Tour: FedEx Play-Offs only SIX Weeks Away!: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Oh Deere, The John Deere Classic has attracted one of the weakest fields of the PGA Tour season, but there is a prize of $828K to the winner so not to be sneezed at. In addition, there's a full quota of FedEx points available so let's have a look at how the Europeans are doing as this season winds down.

2).So many of the European Tour players who come to play in America state that one reason is the competition, and bonus swag, available for those who are successful in the Play-Offs. But how many will actually get in to the field for Round 1, The Barclays (Top 125), and are they positioned to move forward via the DeutscheBank (Top 100) and BMW (Top 70) to the Tour Championship in Atlanta (Top 30)?

3).Currently in the Top 30:
6th: Kaymer
13th: Rose
21st: Garcia

4).31st - 70th:
39th: Knox
40th: McIlroy
52nd: Jacobson
58th: McDowell
60th: Donald
68th: Poulter
70th: Pettersson
This lot need a win and/or a succession of good finishes (especially in early Play-Off events) to get close to Atlanta. Poulter has NEVER reached Atlanta for instance.

5).71st - 100th:
80th: Blixt
97th: Davis
98th: Stenson
These three are each going thru a pretty mediocre season and need to catch Stenson-like fire-from-2013 to share in the bonanza. This is when Stenson really got trucking last year, so perhaps he can turn his season around starting next week. Blixt blows hot and cold and Davis's year has been tepid to say the least.

6).101st - 125th:
With PGA Tour estimates that 415-ish points will be necessary to qualify for The Barclays and assure a 2014/2015 Tour card, let's be conservative and look at those above 425 points and those below:
425+: None!
425-:
108th: Westwood: 410 points: He'll scratch some points via the Bridgestone so should qualify for the Play-Offs. Just. Otherwise, what would he do if he lost his Tour card? Unlikely, but not impossible unless he pulls his finger out.
112th: Casey: 398 pts: Who knows with him given the bizarre schedule he's set for himself? He could really use a strong Open Championship finish or may find himself destined for web.com finals action. It sometimes seems he hasn't quite figured out how to secure his destiny towards each rung of the ladder back to world-class golf.
123rd: Lingmerth: 364 pts: Having a tough second year, but will play where he can. Touch and go whether he makes it but a good week in the Quad Cities will help a lot!

7).126th and worse: On the outside looking in:
136th: Gonzo: 336 pts:  Really struggling to stitch 72 holes together; playing the John Deere and let's hope he finds a strong result.
148th: Laird: 272 pts: Seems to have thrown in the towel for this season. Needs a miracle to get to The Barclays where he's had success before. Exempt for next season.

All other Europeans seem to have given up on their Tour odyssey: Hanson, Olesen, Harrington (has a one-off option for next season) Lynn, Colsaerts, Clarke (exempt next year) and Chopra. Cejka will bounce back to the Tour from web.com action and Owen is also well placed to do the same.

8).Great to see Cabrera bring home the Greenbrier bacon - what a player he is when he's in the mood! But he needed a Top 2 finish to secure HIS card for next year. Great form coming in to The Open.

9).Apart from Spieth, Zach Johnson and Stricker, the "John Deere Classic" field is mostly made up of those desperate, like Gonzo, to secure their Tour membership for next year, or have some other personal motivation. Some golfers who are eligible for the Deere are playing the web.com event in Utah instead, as they strive for their 14/15 cards on a supposedly easier playing field. Perverse.

No Tiger, of course, and consensus seems to be, led by Hank Haney, that his Congressional and Hoylake outings are warm-ups for the PGA Championship at Valhalla.

10).The US Senior Open is being played this week in Oklahoma, at Oak Tree, site of Jeff Sluman's 1988 PGA Championship victory. Long-time Oak Tree resident Scott Verplank turns 50 the day before the Tournament; fancy that!
There is a handful or two of European contestants led by Langer and Montgomerie who are each hoping for their second Champions Tour "Major" of the year.
Oklahoma in high summer might be a bit hot for Monty, but perhaps Langer can reach the winners enclosure again as he looks to make more Champo winnings this year than most Europeans will bank on the PGA Tour? Wouldn't be surprised.

Great article and surprised Stenson is so low on the FEDEX CUP list but I suppose the fact he has only played 9 times on the PGA Tour (and his last three events being the Masters, Players and US Open) explains it all.

Cheers sirb,
I imagine Stenson was in a similar position this time last year, and look what happened next!

I think 425 points is on the low side. I would not feel comfortable until I got to 435-440 points.

I wonder if any Euros (like Oleson, Colsaerts) will go through the WTF series.

Woods needs approx 400 pts to get to top 125 and presumably impress Tom Watson enough to pick him for the Ryder Cup. If he plays the three events, he needs the equivalent of a 4th place finish in each tournament to comfortably make the Top 125.

If Westwood barely retains his tour card, it will be because of guaranteed Fedex Points at WGC Events. He has not finished in the top half of any of the three WGC events this season (T55, T33, T34), yet 72 of his 410 points (17.6%) were earned in those three events.

I've always looked at 450 being cast-iron safe; was surprised when I saw that pgatour.com had extrapolated to "410-415". So used 425!

Can't see why Casey, Colsaerts, Hanson, Harrington, Olesen etc would play the WTF events, but Robert Karlsson might.

Seems there are more "name" players in jeopardy this year than last; perhaps the young guys and journeymen have sussed out what they need to do a bit better than those previously accustomed to the rarified air of the Top 50!

Lots to play for at the John Deere Classic - may be a weaker field than anyone would like, but big rewards for those who play well, most especially a full whack of FedEx points that will save the Tour cards of a few golfers.
European with most to gain is Gonzo - he wasted the first quarter of the year, but a top finish here will secure Tour membership for 2014/2015.
A gorgeous day expected for Round 1, could get stormy by the weekend.

Top class leaderboard at Royal Aberdeen, pity PGA Tour wannabes Fisher and Hanson are not sharing in the fun. Back to square one for both after this season has unravelled, wouldn't you think?

Kwini, you should see the weather up here. Stunning.

Hope it stays that way, s_r, would be wonderful if GB gets ten days of fine weather, though some windiness wouldn't go amiss.
Looks like the afternoon tee-times are struggling a little.

Are you at RA s_r?
Or going?
Perhaps Mac took the bus up there to pay homage?

A good round by Rory. Can he now do another 3?

Bl00dy Hell,
Ricky Gonzalez must have been inspired by Cabrera, eight under par after 12 holes!
Hope Romero can be similarly enthused at the JDC - in grave jeopardy of losing his card unless he can get some El Pato mojo.

Westwood's taken his lousy recent form to Aberdeen.
Next six weeks will be crucial to his plans next year. Hope he realises that.

kwinigolfer wrote:Westwood's taken his lousy recent form to Aberdeen.
Next six weeks will be crucial to his plans next year. Hope he realises that.

Just making sure he's got the weekend free to do some more corporate jollies with the retirees, no doubt.

Westwood level w/Faldo so s'pose that tells its own story.

4,000 miles to the wsw Zach Johnson is taking TPC Deere Run to the cleaners; 64 more holes like his first eight and he'll be back in the Top 9 of the Ryder Cup standings, up to 7th ahead of Dufner & Reed. Long way to go.

Ive only had the honour of playing Royal Aberdeen once but I am a bit surprised at the scoring to be honest. It is pretty windy today and didn't see someone shooting -7. Then again, Rory did drive the 436 yard 13th      down wind and slightly downhill near the green but that is just ridiculous.

Cant wait to go to Royal Aberdeen tomorrow.

Hope you enjoy it, Sand.
Morning scoring far better than the later tee-times.
Anyone know anything about Gary Stal? From 3,000 miles away he seems to have a Dubuisson-like career trajectory, getting in to contention several times, perhaps to break through in a year or two?


Colin Montgomerie has the lead on the course in the US Senior Open.

O'Meara has (thankfully?) withdrawn from The Open Championship and first alternate Ross Fisher will take his place.
David Hearn moves up to the "First Alternate" position.

I think David Gossett had a 7 putt from 15 feet

Perhaps that's why we haven't heard too much from him.
What's his caddie doing while this is going on?

Who knows haha!

It has been corrected to a 6 putt, which makes it about 0.00001% better haha!

3-putt from 21 inches....

80 golfers under par at the John Deere - unfortunately Gonzo (level) is not one of them. The cut will go to at least -2 and probably -3 and Gonzo will need to shoot three rounds in the mid-60's to get back in to the tournament and make meaningful progress towards his card.

At least three Tour caddies playing the Senior Open, Damon Green (Zach Johnson), Ten Broeck (used to be on Parnevik's bag, is he with Stefani now?) and Mark Brooks who caddies occasionally for JJ Henry.

Can't see McGinley having much sympathy for Westwood after this latest failure - he's pretty much put himself in a position where he needs a win to qualify for Ryder Cup action. Wouldn't imagine he has any chance if this sort of form continues.
Not exactly what Bjorn and Dubuisson were looking for either.

The Good: Russell Knox going like a train at Aberdeen.
The Bad: Peter Uihlein w/d's when way over par - he's been having back trouble and must be doubtful for Hoylake - David Hearn on deck.
The Ugly: David Duval packs it in after first round 81 at John Deere. Can't imagine he'll carry on much longer if this sort of futility continues.

kwinigolfer wrote:Can't see McGinley having much sympathy for Westwood after this latest failure - he's pretty much put himself in a position where he needs a win to qualify for Ryder Cup action. Wouldn't imagine he has any chance if this sort of form continues.
Not exactly what Bjorn and Dubuisson were looking for either.

Think LW is a busted flush now in world terms. Probably level out around the 50 mark in the OWGR for a few years but the top 10 days are gone IMO.

Certainly no evidence that Florida has helped Westwood's game - should've stayed in Worksop.

Nice start from Timmy Clark - cameo or return to proper form?

I'd go so far to say the migration has hindered LW - he doesn't seem anywhere near as hungry or motivated. Putting has got no better and he's put weight back on.

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/07/new-book-says-tiger-woods-paid.html

Have to say this story is slightly worrying, reminds me of Lance Armstrong's association with Dr. Ferrari.

Don't think there's anything new here incontinentia, except the arithmetic and detail of the two doctors (or whatever they really are). But no doubt there'll be more questions at press conferences to bug him about it.

None of the Euro Ryder Cup Bubble boys are playing like they want to be on the team.

What is going on with Coco right now? Swaps the sublime for the ridiculous in virtually every tournament these days.

One of the commentators said McIlroy has a cumulative Round 1 score this year of -51 and a cumulative Round 2 score of well, it was +3 a few dropped shots ago!
Edit: Apparently his Round 2 cum score is now +9!
-19 and -20 in Rounds 3 & 4.
 
See Poulter's ADD kicked in again, sure he and Westwood have something lined up for the weekend.
 
GPB,
Agreed, though wouldn't be surprised if Bjorn & Luiten had themselves profitable weekends. And Donald is doing himself some good; not his son Jamie however.

According to McIlroy himself, it was the weather. Different wind direction, had never played the course like that, made it much more difficult etc.

incontinentia wrote:According to McIlroy himself, it was the weather. Different wind direction, had never played the course like that, made it much more difficult etc.

And toothache. Don't forget the toothache. We should all be weeping for him   

Cut at the John Deere almost certainly to be -2 - good news for Brian Davis, bad news for Gonzo whose season is flaming out. But he's playing Hoylake and Valhalla so still some chances left.

Two eagles today from Chas HIII, neither on Par-5's.
Ace on a par-3, two on a par-4.
You don't see that every day.

Westy down to 114 in the projected FE standings.

He does not have Canada (or Wyndham) on his webpage schedule but he does have Barclays, Deutschbank, BMW Championship, Tour Championship and the Ryder Cup on his calendar.

He does not have a drunken Twitter Rant scheduled.

The Boomtown Rats had a song 'I don't like Mondays.' Rory's version is 'I don't like Fridays.'

Rory trying to redeem himself, must like Saturdays more.

Very good point from GPB about Westwood - if he stumbles badly next week, it's likely that he'll drive in to Firestone CC outside the Top 125, or at least right on the precipice.

"Notables" even worse off than him who have no exemption safety net include:
Bryce Molder, Casey, Allenby, Romero, Weir, Immelman, Gonzo, Curtis, O'Hair, Castro (in Top 30 just last year), Byrd, Charlie Wi, Kyle Stanley, Hanson, Gainey, Yang, Chad Campbell, etc, etc.

Looks like Casey began his Scottish Open assault with a NINE on the Par-4 first hole.
Lots of promising rounds in Aberdeen but, so far, nothing better than a 68 in the clubhouse.

Morning storms at the John Deere Classic are outathere and play starts on time, in threesomes off both nines.

Good to see Larrazabal and Karlsson in with good rounds in Scotland, Karlsson especially stringing together some fine rounds in big money tournaments and, a good Round 4 permitting, will assure himself of a trip to Dubai this autumn.
Which will beg another question: Where will he play when the PGA Tour's WTF series begins in late August?

A Larrazabal win will be a fly in the ointment for the UK RC stalwarts of Donald, Poulter, Westwood, and GMAC.

Lots of potential flies buzzing around the unwary the next few weeks.
At least Donald can do something about it this week, Gallacher too.
Those other luminaries you mention can thank their lucky stars no-one is threatening on the "European Points" list, that would add cats among pigeons as well as the flies.


Bogeys scarce in the Quad Cities, unless you're wearing two gloves.

Apparently, 3 golfers not already qualified for the Open finish in the top 10 of the Scottish Open, they get a spot. Who gets the places if all of the top 10 have already qualified?

Alternates, from the owgr's. David Hearn next in line.

lorus59 wrote:Apparently, 3 golfers not already qualified for the Open finish in the top 10 of the Scottish Open, they get a spot. Who gets the places if all of the top 10 have already qualified?

The next three people on the reserve list Lorus, which is the highest players in the OWGR not already in the field. The next in line, in order, are David Hearn, Daniel Summerhays, Noh Seung-yul, Ben Crane, Russell Knox

Why isn't Lucas Glover playing in the OPEN, does his exemption run after when the major won is played or does it run out at the end of the year?

Is Rose favourite for the Open, he should be up there for me. Major winner in good form and knows his way around a links course.
Clearly he'll go on to miss the cut now I've said that.

Glover?
The latter I think, sirb. His Masters appearance was his last (5 year) hurrah.
Plus: In such bad form he was planning to take the rest of the summer off, surprised he played the John Deere. Shouldn't have bothered.

Agree about Rose, digs, he's looking very good. But terrible recent Open record, wouldn't be my choice.