OWGR Rankings Week 42 Fighting for a Top 50 End of Year Ranking

First topic message reminder :

This weeks winners are noted below.  Where have you been Johan Edfors?  Winner on the Challenge Tour in China.

Ben Martin gets an invite to the Masters with his win.  

1 Rory McIlroy 11.481
2 Adam Scott 8.334
3 Jim Furyk 7.513
4 Sergio Garcia 7.450
5 Henrik Stenson 7.406
6 Justin Rose 6.864
7 Bubba Watson 6.785
8 Jason Day 6.682
9 Matt Kuchar 6.096
10 Rickie Fowler 5.655
11 Phil Mickelson 5.382
12 Martin Kaymer 4.924
13 Billy Horschel 4.894
14 Jordan Spieth 4.822
15 Zach Johnson 4.500
16 Dustin Johnson 4.499
17 Tiger Woods 4.293
18 Graeme McDowell 4.272
19 Jimmy Walker 4.219
20 Hideki Matsuyama 4.138
21 Hunter Mahan 4.111
22 Victor Dubuisson 3.966
23 Chris Kirk 3.952
24 Jamie Donaldson 3.654
25 Charl Schwartzel 3.645
26 Patrick Reed 3.629
27 Keegan Bradley 3.498
28 Steve Stricker 3.413
29 Bill Haas 3.352
30 Thomas Bjorn 3.334
31 Webb Simpson 3.325
32 Jason Dufner 3.262
33 Joost Luiten 3.218
34 Stephen Gallacher 3.177
35 Kevin Na 3.171
36 Luke Donald 3.162
37 Mikko Ilonen 3.029 <===Volvo Match Play Winner
38 Miguel A Jimenez 3.001
39 Kevin Streelman 2.920
40 Ryan Palmer 2.918
41 Thongchai Jaidee 2.857 *
42 Graham Delaet 2.818 *
43 Ian Poulter 2.810 *
44 Brendon Todd 2.797
45 Brandt Snedeker 2.794 *
46 Lee Westwood 2.776
47 Marc Leishman 2.763 *
48 Ryan Moore 2.760 *
49 Gary Woodland 2.595
50 Ernie Els 2.557

==>Bubble Point for HSBC (this week) and Masters (end of Year)

51 John Senden 2.552
52 Francesco Molinari 2.551 *
53 Shane Lowry 2.444 *
54 Angel Cabrera 2.390
55 Russell Henley 2.373
56 Kevin Stadler 2.369
57 Ben Martin 2.354 <===Winner Shriners
58 Jonas Blixt 2.324
59 Brooks Koepka 2.322 *
60 Louis Oosthuizen 2.234
61 Harris English 2.227 *
62 Tommy Fleetwood 2.216 *
63 J.B. Holmes 2.203
64 Matt Every 2.186 *
65 Matt Jones 2.160 *
66 Paul Casey 2.112 *
67 Marc Warren 2.088 *
68 Koumei Oda 2.076 *
69 Pablo Larrazabal 2.021 *
70 Bernd Wiesberger 2.014 *
71 Cameron Tringale 1.937
72 Brian Harman 1.921
73 Alexander Levy 1.905 *
74 Richard Sterne 1.845 *
75 Charley Hoffman 1.823
76 Freddie Jacobson 1.821 *
77 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 1.808 *
78 Geoff Ogilvy 1.796
79 Erik Compton 1.782
80 Russell Knox 1.723 *
81 George Coetzee 1.722 *
82 Tim Clark 1.685
83 Ryo Ishikawa 1.684 *
84 Steven Bowditch 1.683 *
85 Kim Hyung-sung 1.660 *
86 K.J. Choi 1.652 *
87 George McNeill 1.652 *
88 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.643 *
89 Chris Stroud 1.637 *
90 Anirban Lahiri 1.631 *
91 Nick Watney 1.623 *
92 Yuta Ikeda 1.603 *  <===Winner Japan Open
93 Edoardo Molinari 1.602 *
94 Bae Sang-moon 1.591
95 Chesson Hadley 1.568 *
96 Danny Willett 1.556 *
97 Kevin Chappell 1.550 *
98 Richie Ramsay 1.522 *
99 Fabrizio Zanotti 1.507 *
100 Noh Seung-yul 1.506
=========
101 Brendon de Jonge 1.502
102 Matteo Manassero 1.499
103 Shingo Katayama 1.493

~133 Scott Hend        1.246 <===Wins Hong Kong
~399 Johan Edfors 0.436 <===Wins on Challenge Tour


I think everyone in the top 40 have virtually clinched a top 50 End of Year ranking which I am estimating to be 2.55 based on last years rankings at this point and end of year.  Players ranked worse than 40th and not exempt into Masters are denoted with asterisk.

Thanks for yr projections GPB, but you don't include John Daly, currently #1049.
He's in line for his first owgr points since January (tho a bit unlucky not to score any last week).

If Daly should win (FAT CHANCE!!) he would get to around ~150 in the OWGR.

Meanwhile, if there was a bookie down the block, I would take the OVER on a J.D. Over/under of 74.5

Other projections

Wade Ormsby would get to about #82 should he win.
Marcel Siem would get to about #41 should he win.
Westy would probably get to #25 should he win.

Willett will just barely fall short of the Top 50 should he win. Probably 52 depending on how Lowry finishes.

GPB wrote:If Daly should win (FAT CHANCE!!) he would get to around ~150 in the OWGR.

Meanwhile, if there was a bookie down the block, I would take the OVER on a J.D. Over/under of 74.5

I probably would have been beside you at the counter making the same bet... but good for Daly... he only spit the bit moderately in shooting 73.... which is an improvement from what I've come to expect from him.

And what?... about mid-30s OWGR for Koepka?

I got Koepka going to 35th, and Poulter going all the to 26th.

Basically both Koepka and Poulter have clinched a spot in the all the WGCs and Majors for next year and all the co-sanctioned tournaments which make it real easy to play a dual schedule.

Lowry falls one spot to #52 (Koepka passed him). He is still about a 0.1 points behind the 50th spot. He will probably need a 6th place finish to get inside the top 50 next week. Levy is in good position too.

(Mayakorba results could affect some of these numbers)

Forgot this tidbit: Stenson's Solo third gets back him to the #4 spot.

I think he has a chance to overtake Adam Scott next week if Stenson win in Dubai.  Adam is playing the Aussie Masters.

Just when Charley Hoffman was in jeopardy of falling out of the Top 100, he wins his third tournament.

He should be 70th in the new rankings tomorrow.

Here are the players around the top 50 bubble

45 Thongchai Jaidee 2.810
46 Gary Woodland 2.809
47 Kevin Streelman 2.752
48 Brandt Snedeker 2.700
49 Graham Delaet 2.618
50 John Senden 2.610
51 Brendon Todd 2.592
52 Shane Lowry 2.491
53 Alexander Levy 2.465
54 Russell Henley 2.448
55 Ernie Els 2.439
56 Koumei Oda 2.431
57 Francesco Molinari 2.418
58 Jonas Blixt 2.396
59 Tim Clark 2.279
60 Louis Oosthuizen 2.250
61 Tommy Fleetwood 2.238

Bolded Players are already qualified for the 2015 Masters.

Good work GPB.
Some of these guys won't be playing again this year. Imagine Snedeker, for instance, has his future tenure in the Top 50 in the lap of his gods. DeLaet too. But Woodland, Streelman, Henley and Todd won't likely be getting any more points.

Hoffman just the latest in a long line of Tour winners in the 51 - 75 range.

PS: You're right about Brett Waldman.

Rankings if they take the rest of the year off:

Streelman: ~2.36
Sneds: ~2.30
Delaet: ~2.24

Best case scenario for Lowry and Levy is to earn enough points to offset the attrition and they will be in the top 50 at year.

Of course, they risk getting passed by players ranked behind them.

Doesn't look like anyone in the Aussie Masters field can pass them next week, so it is only RtD players and Koumei Oda in Japan.

BTW: Spieth, Simpson, Gonzo, and Chris Stroud are playing Japan next week. Its Dunlop Phoenix week, which is historically one of its biggest tournaments. Luke Donald is not defending his win from last year.

Hideki Matsuyama is also playing Dunlop Phoenix. Apparently he lost his playing privileges on the JPGA tour because he will not play the requisite events. He has a limited number of sponsors invites. I think he only had to play five events, and that doesn't seem to be burdensome.

Pretty disappointing for Lowry yesterday after a promising start. Squanders a great chance to break the top 50 too. What happened to Poulter? Would've thought he'd nail that 6 footer to make the play off but didn't even hit the hole

Poulter has to take the positives. Yes he threw it away after his 3rd round but he has had a shiversome year, now two weeks in a row he's been challenging.

He should indeed take heart from the quality of his play. He seemed to be driving the ball so much better than of late (and especially in the RC). His approach to 18 was one of his poorer shots of the day.

R2D => 56 pts to the winner
Dunlop Phoenix (Japan) => 26 pts
Aussie Masters => 20 pts

Rory will finish the year as number 1, no matter how he performs this week and next or and Adam wins the Aussie Triple Crown.

Both Henrik and Sergio could become the new #2 should they win. (And Adam doesn't win the Aussie Masters)

Rose can become #3


================

Another chance for Lowry and Levy to move into top 50. It is a difficult wall to penetrate

GPB wrote:R2D => 56 pts to the winner
Dunlop Phoenix (Japan) => 26 pts
Aussie Masters => 20 pts

Rory will finish the year as number 1, no matter how he performs this week and next or and Adam wins the Aussie Triple Crown.

Both Henrik and Sergio could become the new #2 should they win.  (And Adam doesn't win the Aussie Masters)

Rose can become #3


================

Another chance for Lowry and Levy to move into top 50.  It is a difficult wall to penetrate

Big Shane just has to lean against it.

"You're fatist"

"No love, trust me, you're the fattest" (C) Jimmy Carr.

Shane's penetrative abilities should not be underestimated.

Great opportunity last week though, hope he finishes well this week. Levy seems a great talent if recent form is any indicator.

I got a 9 yr old nephew that tells the same knock knock joke over and over again.

super_realist, given your propensity to tell basically the same joke over and over again, do you have any idea what my nephew's motivation might be?

Jokes about Lowry's weight never get boring.

super_realist wrote:

Jokes about Lowry's weight never get boring.

Yes they do.

Lowry has labeled the season finale "The Dubai Dessert Classic".

pedro wrote:Lowry has labeled the season finale "The Dubai Dessert Classic".

Haw haw.

GPB- any idea what sort of a finish Lowry needs this week to crack the top 50? Much appreciated

inco,
I think he's calculated in the past he needs a Top 6 to assure himself Top 50, but even that could be dependent upon others.

Ah yes, I missed that. Thanks kwini

According to P.D., Lowry can get inside the Top 50 with a 13th or better finish assuming no players pass him from behind.

A 4th place finish will probably be enough to secure a top 50 spot at year end and put him in the mid 40's for a ranking.

Shane Lowry Tracker:

If Shane finishes:

1st Shane passes #26 Reed
Solo 2nd He passes #33 Dufner
Solo 3rd He passes #42 Ilonen
Solo 4th He passes #44 Woodland
Solo 5th He passes #47 Streelman
Solo 7th He passes #48 Snedeker
Solo 12th He passes #49 Senden
Solo 13th He passes #50 Delaet

Solo 4th and he is pretty much safe to be in Top 50 at year end.

Rankings for Reed, Dufner etc are already been amortized for this week.

Other Non-Lowry Projections: (Top 10 Implications)

If Stenson wins, he will be #2, unless Adam Scott wins the Aussie Masters.

Sergio can move to the #2 spot, should he win, and Adam finishes worse than 12th.

Justin can move to the #3 spot (ahead of Bubba) should he win.

Kaymer will move up to 9th if he wins.

GMAC moves to #10 if he wins.

Spieth cannot impact the top 10.

Thanks for that GPB

Ouch, back to back double bogies for Mcilroy.

Shane Lowry in reverse. Shame Lowry more like, but hopefully he has one last decent round in him.

Very poor Saturday for Kaymer & Westwood. Not to mention Webb Simpson, in Japan without his anchor. He will join Donald, Snedeker and Westwood on the downward spiral if none can produce a decent finish soon.

Should RCB win and Shane Lowry remain T13th, RCB will pass Lowry in the rankings.

A RCB win could get him as high as 49th.

Marc Warren could also be ranked ahead of Lowry with a two tie for 2nd or better.