OWGR Wk 47 and OWGR Demographics 1999-2014

First topic message reminder :

Great wins by Henrik and Hideki!  and a couple MASTERS wins from Nick Cullum in the Aussie Masters and Mardan Mamat in the Manila Masters on the Asian Tour.

And Shane Lowry cracks the Top 50, but I would not reservations for Augusta quite yet.  Some golf yet to play in South Africa, Australia, Japan, and Thailand.

This is what the Top 100 should look like tomorrow.  (The Callaway Invitational does not count towards OWGR rankings, Lee Janzen is leading going into final round)

1 Rory McIlroy 11.974
2 Henrik Stenson 8.264 ===> Winner DP World Championship
3 Adam Scott 8.117
4 Bubba Watson 7.617
5 Sergio Garcia 7.031
6 Jim Furyk 7.022
7 Justin Rose 6.991
8 Jason Day 6.139
9 Rickie Fowler 5.701
10 Matt Kuchar 5.556
11 Phil Mickelson 5.043
12 Martin Kaymer 4.832
13 Billy Horschel 4.686
14 Jordan Spieth 4.644
15 Graeme McDowell 4.455
16 Hideki Matsuyama 4.421 ===> Winner Dunlop Phoenix
17 Victor Dubuisson 4.404
18 Dustin Johnson 4.147
19 Zach Johnson 4.103
20 Chris Kirk 4.001
21 Jimmy Walker 3.962
22 Hunter Mahan 3.891
23 Jamie Donaldson 3.750
24 Tiger Woods 3.603
25 Patrick Reed 3.471
26 Ian Poulter 3.439
27 Kevin Na 3.381
28 Joost Luiten 3.351
29 Ryan Moore 3.319
30 Charl Schwartzel 3.275
31 Keegan Bradley 3.181
32 Thomas Bjorn 3.110
33 Bill Haas 3.107
34 Jason Dufner 3.091
35 Brooks Koepka 3.069
36 Stephen Gallacher 3.053
37 Luke Donald 3.027
38 Steve Stricker 3.020
39 Webb Simpson 3.013
40 Ryan Palmer 2.959
41 Miguel A Jimenez 2.940
42 Lee Westwood 2.833
43 Thongchai Jaidee 2.814
44 Mikko Ilonen 2.813
45 Gary Woodland 2.769
46 Marc Leishman 2.767
47 Shane Lowry 2.713
48 Kevin Streelman 2.701
49 Brandt Snedeker 2.633
50 John Senden 2.578
===========
51 Graham Delaet 2.567
52 Brendon Todd 2.554
53 Alexander Levy 2.492
54 Koumei Oda 2.464
55 Francesco Molinari 2.459
56 Louis Oosthuizen 2.426
57 Ernie Els 2.419
58 Russell Henley 2.418
59 Jonas Blixt 2.374
60 Tommy Fleetwood 2.329
61 Tim Clark 2.250
62 Ben Martin 2.190
63 Hiroshi Iwata 2.188
64 J.B. Holmes 2.158
65 Marcel Siem 2.157
66 Kevin Stadler 2.145
67 Angel Cabrera 2.129
68 Marc Warren 2.123
69 Pablo Larrazabal 2.059
70 Charley Hoffman 2.024
71 Harris English 2.018
72 Matt Every 2.018
73 Bernd Wiesberger 2.018
74 Paul Casey 2.006
75 Matt Jones 1.992
76 Anirban Lahiri 1.925
77 George Coetzee 1.902
78 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.877
79 Cameron Tringale 1.849
80 Bae Sang-moon 1.819
81 Brian Harman 1.790
82 Brendon de Jonge 1.778
83 Danny Willett 1.756
84 Richard Sterne 1.719
85 Hideto Tanihara 1.718
86 Ross Fisher 1.693
87 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.683
88 Geoff Ogilvy 1.657
89 Robert Streb 1.654
90 Richie Ramsay 1.653
91 Erik Compton 1.649
92 Freddie Jacobson 1.630
93 Chris Stroud 1.620
94 Steven Bowditch 1.618
95 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 1.616
96 Romain Wattel 1.609
97 Robert Karlsson 1.606
98 Russell Knox 1.603
99 Edoardo Molinari 1.585
100 Kevin Chappell 1.581
=======
101 Tomohiro Kondo 1.580
102 Noh Seung-yul 1.579
103 Ryo Ishikawa 1.565
=====
~250 Nick Cullum 0.747 ===> Winner Aussie Masters
~446 Mardan Mamat 0.394 ===> Winner Manila Masters

===================

Agree that Spieth will probably be the main challenger in the years to come. Maybe Fowler too.

The US Media try to make out that one trickie Rickie is the natural rival to Rory . . . . . . .

Kwini

There was a tweet with a photo of 4 layers, tiger, rory, bubba and Rikcie I think. It definitely had Rickie. And the caption was something along the lines of how will tiger get back to challenging the worlds best.

In whose world is tricky Rickie one of the worlds best in the terms they were meaning. I.e a prospective world number 1.

Kwin -

Curious ... how do you come to that conclusion? Do you have any evidence to the number of "US Media" publications that have stated such? Or any publications that have stated such?

kwinigolfer wrote:The US Media try to make out that one trickie Rickie is the natural rival to Rory . . . . . . .

How about Golf Digest, Golf, GolfWorld, golfchannel.com, pgatour.com?
They all big Rickie up to be the Americans' rival to Rory, not least because of their RCD Walker Cup meeting.
Imagine Rickie gets more magazine covers than Rory, but totally out of proportion to his actual wins.

Kwin - Paulina Gretzky gets a cover in Golf Digest!! That does not mean they try to make her a natural rival to Rory ...

Is there any recent article that states that "natural rivalry" specifically?

(Like Tiger before him, I'm of the opinion the only true rival to Rory is Rory.)

super_realist wrote:Perhaps Spieth is that man Mac.

Gerry Watson, Masters apart had a pretty poor 2014, can't deny I'd love to see McIlroy hammer him every week though. Watson is a pretty deplorable person.

Because winning the Northern Trust Open and HSBC-WGC is pretty poor?

How many players won two or more tournaments on majors tours world wide this year.

Rory, Rose, Walker, Reed, Horschel and....not many others.

Whoops, missed those two GPB. Well pointed out.
Should have checked that. Still don't think Mullet Man is close to being a rival to McIlroy though.

super_realist wrote:Whoops, missed those two GPB. Well pointed out.
Should have checked that. Still don't think Mullet Man is close to being a rival to McIlroy though.

And that is BAD....because?


IMO, Bubba's A-Game is better than anyone elses A-Game.  But he is a such a head-case that he can only bring his A-Game a few times per year.

His wedge game is very inconsistent, but he hits more "Leaners" than just about anyone when he is on.


for more on Leaners:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoes#Scoring

Plenty of points at stake this week, in Thailand (34), Aussie PGA (24) and SAfrica (22).


pgatour.com's 30 Players To Watch for 2015 are being unveiled, day by day.
21 - 30 are Snedeker, Matsuyama, Mahan, Kirk, Dustin, Hadley, Simpson, Zach, Compton, Streb.

Does this accurately reflect the cosmopolitan character of the Tour, I wonder? 1 thru 20 will make fascinating reading!

I am pretty sure a lot of eyes will be watching Dustin when he returns to golf at Torrey Pines.

And I bet the man with a Dixie Sample Cup will be waiting either Thursday or Friday.

I would also rate Hideki higher than 21-30.  A lot of Japanese eyes will be on him, especially at Hyundai.

GPB wrote:I am pretty sure a lot of eyes will be watching Dustin when he returns to golf at Torrey Pines.

And I bet the man with a Dixie Sample Cup will be waiting either Thursday or Friday.

I would also rate Hideki higher than 21-30.  A lot of Japanese eyes will be on him, especially at Hyundai.

A lot of people think that when Ryo or Hideki are playing in the states, the Japanese media are over the top. But you should see it in Hawaii. The number of media following Ryo at the Sony seemed to rival the total gallery at some tournaments. OK... maybe a little hyperbole there... but not a lot.

On the subject of which, there'll be a strong Asian presence at the TOC with Bae, Noh and Hideki; perhaps more still at the SONY. Good stuff.

I am sure the Cap't Price would like Bae or Noh or some other Korean to make the Prez Cup team.

A win at Hyundai would put those two close to the bubble (if not inside the bubble)

I reckon Ryo will lose some of the limelight (and Masters invites) since there's now another young Japanese with funky hair who can actually play golf! (hideki)

kwinigolfer wrote:On the subject of which, there'll be a strong Asian presence at the TOC with Bae, Noh and Hideki; perhaps more still at the SONY. Good stuff.

A lot more at the Sony is my guess... as normally they us most of their unrestricted Sponsor Exemptions on Japanese players. Also a couple of other new players on tour in category 26 (web.com) as well.. Whee Kim and Sung Joon Park likely to make the field.

GPB wrote:I am sure the Cap't Price would like Bae or Noh or some other Korean to make the Prez Cup team.

A win at Hyundai would put those two close to the bubble (if not inside the bubble)

Agree... if a Korean doesn't make the team on points... I'd guess Price would feel a lot of pressure to select a Korean if one's even remotely playing well... One of those guys making it on merit would definitely be doing him a favor.

Several players can get into top 50.

To have a chance:

Dunhill

Danny Willett needs a solo 9th or better
Frannie needs a solo 3rd or better

Thailand

Oda needs a top 13
Fleetwood needs a 4th
Iwata, Lahiri, Weisberger, Katayama need to win.

Aussie PGA

No one in the field can crash the top 50 but Senden can make it harder if there are two party crashers from South Africa and Thailand.  Leishman can probably start making reservations for Augusta.

=====================

BTW, Levy is projected into Top 50 (actually 49th) if none of the above scenarios occur this week and John Senden whiffies in Australia.

GPB,
I can't find any tournaments for next week, but perhaps there might be one or two?

Am I correct in assuming that the points continue to attrition during weeks 51 and 52, then we have the cut-off for Augusta?

Considering those in some sort of contention this week, Molinari could finish solo 2nd at the Dunhill and still be out of luck. Leishman has his destiny in his own hands, but would think, given contenders elsewhere, he might need a Top Ten to earn a Billy Payne Xmas Card?

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
I can't find any tournaments for next week, but perhaps there might be one or two?

Am I correct in assuming that the points continue to attrition during weeks 51 and 52, then we have the cut-off for Augusta?

Considering those in some sort of contention this week, Molinari could finish solo 2nd at the Dunhill and still be out of luck. Leishman has his destiny in his own hands, but would think, given contenders elsewhere, he might need a Top Ten to earn a Billy Payne Xmas Card?

Kwini... that's correct... points continue to have attrition even though no events are played. Usually the OWGR issues a both the "weekly" for the week just completed and a "year end" soon after the last rated event of the year is played...  So if there aren't any more events in the next two weeks... we should be seeing the year end Monday or Tuesday...

Sorry, been out of pocket for the last couple days.  Basically off the grid!  And just now catching up with the golf from last two days.

The Asian Tour has their Season Finale in Dubai next week.  

Here is a link to the field

http://www.asiantour.com/tournaments/407/entries/

If Lahiri and Fleetwood don't make it this week, they get a mulligan.

PD tweeted 6 hours ago (before Dunhill completion) that Frankie, Willett, Fleetwood are all tentatively in the top 50.  And Lahiri is at 57.  

https://twitter.com/VC606/status/543701147337654272

Sneds all the way down to #59.

Time for VC606 to do another projection - I'm surprised he hasn't figured out how to do a "Live Update" showing the changes as they happen.

More than one step back for Molinari, a step or two forward for Lahiri and Oosthuizen.

kwinigolfer wrote:Time for VC606 to do another projection - I'm surprised he hasn't figured out how to do a "Live Update" showing the changes as they happen.

Kwini, I have actually been able to do that if I get the Info from OWGR early enough.  (well nearly live).

My only problem (believe it or not) is the PGATour Live scoring and EuroT.  Its a memory hog and bogs down my computer so I link with the Yahoo Scoring site (I find it works best).  But the problem is that Yahoo scoring (and all people that are not partners with PGAT and EuroT) are about 10 minutes behind live scoring.

The weeks I do it, are the weeks that I start a new thread with the top 100. 

If I can do it, I am sure PD can do it.  He seems to have his own DB where I get my info from OWGR.

Very good GPB,
Quite the skill calibrating the impact of every stroke as scores are posted from three different continents at once!
Those of us less able can only sit and wonder. I'm just starting to get the hang of this calculator thingy . . . . .

Looks like Keegan and Poulter are going to earn enough OWGR points this week at the Shark Shootout  to pass Woods in the OWGR.




Edit:  Apparently Will @ Golf Channel does not know that there is an Asian Tour event next week.

Will Gray at Golf Channel wrote:Willett is currently projected to move to No. 48 in the OWGR after a 67 in the third round, with no official events remaining in the calendar year after this week.

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/willett-nearing-owgr-top-50-masters-berth/

Every once in awhile I look at Golfweek Sagarin ratings and look for players that are over-valued in the OWGR according to Sag and vice versa.  



Here are some players in OWGR Top 50 that Sagarin considers over-rated.  (OWGR Ranking first, Sagarin 2nd)

Tiger Woods 25 267
Miguel A Jimenez 39 227
Mikko Ilonen 45 122
Kevin Streelman 48 111
Martin Kaymer 13 75
Billy Horschel 14 61
Stephen Gallacher 34 94
Patrick Reed 23 51
Shane Lowry 44 95
Thomas Bjorn 35 86
Rickie Fowler 10 22

Here are Sagarin Top 50 players that OWGR considers Over-ranked.  Sagarin Ranking first, OWGR 2nd

Stewart Cink 37 184
Jerry Kelly 36 118
Daniel Summerhays 39 132
Justin Thomas 49 123
Robert Streb 44 91
Bill Haas 9 37
Gary Woodland 15 46
Steve Stricker 14 38
Danny Willett 19 56
Cameron Tringale 38 82
Paul Casey 34 74
Charley Hoffman 43 73
Jim Furyk 1 6


Key differences between Sagarin and OWGR

Its a one year, un-depreciated time period for Sagarin.  OWGR is a two year time period, which year 2 counts for about 30% of the ranking.  (Exhibit A:  Tiger Woods rankings)

Sagarin rewards consistency.  OWGR rewards wins.  Exhibit A:  Jim Furyk. Exhibit B:  Martin Kaymer

Sagarin has no subsidies.  OWGR home points, Flagship events, Majors have subsidized points.

Interesting... There are plenty of OWGR ones which I would sort of agree with (albeit not to the extent that Sagarin drops them down). But there isn't a single player in the Sagarin list where I would agree even vaguely with Sagarin's evaluation. Conclusion: give me OWGR every time.

NedBH

I think the OWGR is more accurate too.   But Sagarin is useful too, especially if you play fantasy golf.

I don't play Draft Kings, but I would imagine that Stewart Cink is a bargain, because of his low OWGR ranking.  But he makes CUTS, and that is important because you get four rounds for you consistently.  He made the cut 21/25 times last season.  And that is primarily why Sagarin ranks him pretty highly.  

Two 40th places gets you higher ranked than a top 10 and MC by 5 shots.

Tiger's ranking is almost entirely because of weeks 53-104 in his resume, not his last 52 weeks.  And 267th is about where Tiger is trending in the OWGR based on his last 52 weeks.

You can look at Sag's rankings here

http://rankings.golfweek.com/ellington/default.asp?t=world

I agree with Ned,
We'd all make modifications to the owgr, some big, some small, but I reckon it's pretty good, just favours the Top 50 a tad too much..

kwinigolfer wrote:I agree with Ned,
We'd all make modifications to the owgr, some big, some small, but I reckon it's pretty good, just favours the Top 50 a tad too much..

I agree, the OWGR generally passes the SNIFF test.

Sometimes there is a rotten egg.  Tiger still in the top 30 after his year of ineptitude is pretty sulphurous.

Partly due to the WC play-off loss to Zach - which would not apply in the kwinirankings as the WC would not count.

Zach also over-rated right now, which is where we started the Sagarin vs owgr conversation vis-a-vis Z and Fatty DeJonge1

Zach should have fallen this week after his WC win scrolled off the 52 week resume and will fall after Hyundai too.  (Winning won't help it much, if any).  If there are archived Sagarin rankings, I haven't been able to find them.

BdJ at 59th (Sag) and 84th (OWGR)....probably about where he should be.

I still think Sag can be a handy tool for Fantasy games.  It helped me to a 120th finish in the Yahoo fantasy.....out of about 100K players.  I was top 50 in the Spring Session.

Senden projected at #49 going into this week and already qualified for the Masters is making it harder for two players to crash the top 50 with his good round in the Aussie PGA.

Leishman should be good too.

kwinigolfer wrote:I agree with Ned,
We'd all make modifications to the owgr, some big, some small, but I reckon it's pretty good, just favours the Top 50 a tad too much..

 Yep... pretty much sums up my feelings as well.

Scottie 0 for 3 Down Under. I see he's in the advertising clips for the TOC but if he's true to his statement about not returning until Honda, he'll start to lose points quickly.

Very disappointed at Molinari's front nine - he must have received Drac's tweet about what he needs to return to Augusta.

Lee Westwood should have a bought house in Malaysia or Thailand and keep playing the Asian Tour.  His Thailand Golf Championship wins gets him to 26th in the rankings and should secure an invite to Cadillac.

Greg Chalmers' win in the Aussie PGA gets him to about #172.

Brandon Grace win in South Africa and gets into the high 80's/

Willett looks to have done just enough to get a Masters invite.  He should be 51 tomorrow, but with two weeks of attrition he should pass #49 and #50 at year end.

Not quite as good for Fleetwood.  He is projected at #51 at year end.  However, he has a mulligan.  

He is in the field in the Asian Tour Dubai tournament.  PD says he needs a Two tie T11 or better.

PD has tweeted out the projected top 50 bubble, assuming Fleetwood whiffies Dubai

https://twitter.com/VC606/status/544140588359360512

BTW...Sergio moves ahead of Furyk, Kaymer moves ahead of Mickelson, and Woods falls 4 spots to #29.  (Na, Westy, Poults and Keegan passes him).

Alexandre Levy was projected to finish in the top 50, but by not playing this week, he got passed and he is going to finish the year at #53.  No Masters Invite!

Incredibly close at the Top 50 bubble.  Every putt counts because every point counts.

GPB... I think Senden has passed Willett for tentative #49 with his finish in the Aus Masters... That puts Willett sitting on the projected year end #50 bubble and subject to a bump out of the top-50 with a good finish by Fleetwood in the Asian Tour event in Dubai.... And Willett is not currently qualified for the Masters...

EDIT: Just checked and PD confirms above and is saying Fleetwood needs a 17th place or better to pass Willett...

Willett's final three holes in South Africa (played in six over par) could then come back to haunt him, as they should. But he's got so many new points he's only got to show reasonable form in the next three+ months to secure a ride up Magnolia Drive.

(I lived in a planned community for a year as a child, all streets named after local plants - Carib Crescent, Oleander Avenue etc. No Magnolia Drive as I remember!)

EDIT thanks to Ned, Make that Carob Crescent!

kwinigolfer wrote:Willett's final three holes in South Africa (played in six over par) could then come back to haunt him, as they should. But he's got so many new points he's only got to show reasonable form in the next three+ months to secure a ride up Magnolia Drive.

True... every shot and every placing counts... and you're probably right about Willett's prospects for the future... For instance, since most of his points are "current" he's currently projected at #39 at week 9 next year (before anybody plays and including divisor reductions for everybody) ... which is the first cutoff for the WGC Cadillac - Doral.

But not that all this Willett talk should matter to those who believe NedBank and WC's are exhibitions and shouldn't be OWGR rated, because without the Nedbank getting points, Willett would likely be somewhere around the 80's and thus not even in the conversation right now.

I think if I lived on Carib Crescent, I would expect the nearby streets to be named Red Stripe Road and Banks Boulevard...

Good point Ned, Make that Carob . . . .

Yep, T17 will get it done for Fleetwood.

Kwini, good point, both Willett and Fleetwood (and Levy) are trending up while some bubble boys are trending down.  The guys trending down are more vulnerable to attrition than the ones trending up.  The Middle East Swing will be critical for the ET players that are close to the Top 50.  Qualifying for Cadillac is critical for these guys.

kwinigolfer wrote:Good point Ned, Make that Carob . . . .

No Berry Lane?
Or Woods Drive?

Good to see the Golf Channel are now retweeting princedracula and his (and GPB's) end of season owgr placings:

https://twitter.com/VC606/status/546033456929857536

It really is a shame he doesn't post on here anymore, although I would recommend that people follow his twitter account.

Agreed Mac,
He's a good man, very interesting and with a wide perspective. Come back Drac!

McIlroy, Stenson, Rose, Fowler and Kaymer all confirmed for Abu Dhabi, plus a dozen more Top 60 golfers.