2015 250-500 Tournaments Thread

[temporary21]

First topic message reminder :

A thread intended for discussion of the smaller tournaments of the year. First up, its Doha.

[banbrotam]

But times have changed SB....The peak age for a tennis player does seem to have moved to 27-31.

Well that is exactly what will be interesting to see.  My hypothesis is that the times have not changed as much as is generally assumed.  We will see this year and the next if I am wrong.  If Rafa/Nole/Andy are still winning bulk of the slams over the next year or two, then I am wrong.

Also, did you not just question my wording where I said that I thought that "even in current conditions" players would start dropping off after 28?  And now it turns out you yourself are among those who think that the times have changed - i.e. that "in current conditions" players will last longer than before.

I don't see where you get this dropping off after 28. It's no necessarily the winning of tournaments - we have a host of players arguably playing as good as they were when they were 26, now in their early thirties or at least hardly dropped.

Connors was the glorious exception that proved that rule at that time - i.e. 28 and your career was more or less over. It simply does not apply now

Christ! Wasn't Karlovic in the Top 20 recently?

[laverfan]

What a get from Fognini to beat Nadal in Rio!. There Three very long matches with MPs.

Nadal looked knackered.

[LuvSports!]

Fog would be more tired surely after his 3 hour match with delbooooris.

[summerblues]

Congratds to Fognini.  I am shocked he beat Rafa, but he played some inspired tennis the last couple of sets.

[laverfan]

He played some excellent tennis in the second set. It was pretty impressive. This should inspire Djokovic's RG ambitions further.

[summerblues]

This should inspire Djokovic's RG ambitions further.

Perhaps, though Rio and RG are worlds apart.

I am sure that if Nole and Rafa were to meet at RG and Rafa played like today, Nole would take him apart easily.  In fact, if Rafa were to play at RG like he played today, he would quite possibly lose before reaching the stages where he could play Nole.

However, I expect that by RG, Rafa will be a very different player - much more like his usual self - and that Nole will have his work cut out for him.

[laverfan]

However, I expect that by RG, Rafa will be a very different player - much more like his usual self - and that Nole will have his work cut out for him.

The second set (time violations, etc.) and Nadal's attitude towards Bernardes do not indicate him to be in a good place mentally. Bit concerned about Nadal. The European clay circuit may be a better barometer.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Humidity, balls, fatigue, unhappiness with the scheduling, etc and etc caused him to feel irritated and agitated, temper was short and so the flaring out. His game now is either hit or miss, I think he needs more match plays to build his confidence. With three more tournaments to go before the European clay season starts, he should have enough match play by then. This match reminded me of his Doha 2010 final with Davy, played well the first set, but when his opponent upped the level, he backed off, and then the final set was a battle and he lost, both times. Rafa said it himself, that we have to expect to see more of such losses on clay from him, I guess he's realistic enough to know that he won't dominate on clay forever, so his fans have to adopt the same attitude. He's now at a similar stage of his career as Fed after 2009, when Fed started losing to players that he once owned, and Fed had more losses and fewer titles per season. I think we'll see that in Novak too in the next one or two years.

[Belovedluckyboy]

Again, too early to talk about RG. Don't forget that last year, he did poorly (by his own standard) during the European clay court swing, winning only one title before the FO, yet he played well enough to win the FO for the ninth time, beating none other than Novak in the final. Let's wait and see how things go, he wasn't exactly brilliant during Rio last year, almost lost in the SF, facing MPs, lest we forget.

[JuliusHMarx]

I thought we'd established on the 'Simon' thread that fitness doesn't play a part in 3-set matches

[laverfan]

Nadal was hobbling and there was mention of a "groin" injury. He almost fell in the third set.

JHM, you are the or the

I am certain some armchair warrior on v2 is dreaming of a GS, rather than getting fitter.

We need to consider "over-fitness" (the changes in Murray are an example) as a challenge to the mindset of getting 'fitter'.

[JuliusHMarx]

LF, I am the 's advocate

[laverfan]

LF, I am the 's advocate

I did not realize that all the law professionals I know who have been vying for this job for centuries keep getting rejected.

The Job Interview for these applicants always seems to end with... Hell! we have an evil genius who is the chief, we do not need you. Go to Hell!WTF!

Now I know why.

[bogbrush]

Federer goes to 16-0 on the Colonel. That's two players - him & Ferrer - he has at that score. One more on either and that's the new record for consecutive wins I think.

[banbrotam]

I see the Master is back, giving lie to his 38 years or whatever age he is

Oh how he'd have loved to take these conditions to just three of the last ten hard court slams. It's time the US Open took a leaf out of Dubai's books

[laverfan]

It's time the US Open took a leaf out of Dubai's books

USO has no desire to see an 'aging' non-American win. If it were McEnroe or Agassi, they would consider the option.

Youzhny has just won 4 sets in in his 16 outings. 3 on Grass (Halle 2003 and 2013 - 10 years apart, W 2011) and 1 on HC (Stockholm 2000). He is not a very good barometer for Federer's tennis.

Strangely, Federer is also playing doubles partnering Lammer.

[dummy_half]

It's time the US Open took a leaf out of Dubai's books

USO has no desire to see an 'aging' non-American win. If it were McEnroe or Agassi, they would consider the option.

Youzhny has just won 4 sets in in his 16 outings. 3 on Grass (Halle 2003 and 2013 - 10 years apart, W 2011) and 1 on HC (Stockholm 2000). He is not a very good barometer for Federer's tennis.

Strangely, Federer is also playing doubles partnering Lammer.

That really is a staggering stat - maybe a slight suggestion that Federer is a bad match up for Youzny

Actually, Ferrer's record is not much better - he's taken 5 sets off Federer in his 16 defeats

[CaledonianCraig]

Ward loses to Lopez 6-4 6-4. Murray about to serve for an exct replica scoreline against Gilles Muller.

[CaledonianCraig]

Muller, with a couple of strokes of luck coupled with a rank service game breaks to stay in the match to trail 4-6 5-5.

[CaledonianCraig]

And Muller double faults on break point to hand the break back. Murray to serve for the match (Mark II).

[CaledonianCraig]

Murray wins 6-4 7-5 and will play Jaoa Sousa in the Second Round.

[sirfredperry]

Muller looked pretty good at the AO so this was always likely to have been a tough match.

[JuliusHMarx]

It's time the US Open took a leaf out of Dubai's books

USO has no desire to see an 'aging' non-American win. If it were McEnroe or Agassi, they would consider the option.

Youzhny has just won 4 sets in in his 16 outings. 3 on Grass (Halle 2003 and 2013 - 10 years apart, W 2011) and 1 on HC (Stockholm 2000). He is not a very good barometer for Federer's tennis.

Strangely, Federer is also playing doubles partnering Lammer.

Franz K. Lammer?

[biugo]

An addition to the discussion about 28yo being the tilting point in a career nowadays:

Average age of the TOP 100 now: 28.4 years! (it's of course the oldest Top 100 in the Open era)

And here is the evolution of the number of teenagers in Top 50, 100, 200, 300, 500 (capped at 20 players). The drop is pretty impressive! and the future starts to look brighter. Apparently, when Fedal arrived, people stopped playing tennis and just watched them instead

[laverfan]

Strangely, Federer is also playing doubles partnering Lammer.

Franz K. Lammer?

The 'downhill' dominator. ROTFLMAO. Seriously though, Michael Lammer - ranked #541.

[laverfan]

An addition to the discussion about 28yo being the tilting point in a career nowadays:

Average age of the TOP 100 now: 28.4 years! (it's of course the oldest Top 100 in the Open era)

Thanks. Very fascinating. Pancho/Laver/Rosewall/Connors pushed the average age envelope quite a bit, as Federer/Hewitt/Ferrer/Lopez/Stepanek are helping do it now.

[dummy_half]

Biugo

It's an interesting graph. Do you have a breakdown of who the players were, at least for the top 50? Would be interesting to see how many of them have really kicked on to big success and how many faded (2005-06 will be at least in part Nadal Djoko and Murray, so few players but very high quality).

I think actually the top 200 and top 300 lines are more informative - shows how few juniors have come through since about 2006, with no teenager being in the top 200 in 2012. Is the gap between top level Junior tennis and even the Challengers that great, or is it that there isn't enough prize money available to support an 18 or 19 year old as they make their way over the first season or so, until they reach the fringes of the top 100 and start getting into ATP level events?

[biugo]

About the reasons for the sudden drop in juniors going through, there are so many explanations to be proposed, with probably a bit of all:

- Is it because of the choice to play professionally an other sport, or not play professionnally at all, for financial reasons? (prize money discrepancies within ATP / prize money discrepancy with other sports / 2008 Crisis that cooled off some ambitions?)
- Is it because of the lack of leading figures in late 90s early 00s? So 10-15 years later, fewer players grew up watching an idol that pushed them to go further (and it could explain also the starting resurgence, with kids who dreamt watching Fedal)
- Is it because of the LTA? (an easy argument, but it had to be made :p ) And more seriously, is it a result of the national federation of tennis powerhouses (esp. Australia and USA).
- And to go with the former 2 point: I don't have data on it, but could it merely be getting even on the long term if we add up the WTA? After all, leading figures of early 2000s first appeared in the WTA.
- and finally, letting the money aside (kind of), is it because the sport is developping more and more, like all sports, and that training and development have been pushed so much further that we can't really expect a teen star anytime soon - the levels of fitness and technicity are too high too reach so early (This is quite true in cycling for example)

Dummy_half, I'll try to look into the names of the teens in Top 50 / Top 100 with more time on my hands. Some were indicated in the article I took it from though:

EOY 1984: Pat Cash (10), Aaron Krickstein (12), Edberg (20), Guy Forget (36), Becker (66) - there`s a loong list on that year, but not recognizing names further really, except Horacio De La Pena (89)

EOY 1988: Agassi (3), Guillermo Perez Roldan (18), Chang (30), Courier (43), Alberto Mancini (49)...Sampras (97) ... Todd Woodbridge (213)

EOY 2000: Hewitt (7), Federer (29), Andreas Vinciguerrra (52), Rochus (68), Coria (88), Youzhny (113), Robredo (131), Davydenko (133), Roddick (156), Volandri (165), Labadze (166), Acasuso (175), Dent (181), Empenada Dave (245) F Lopez (271), PHMathieu (275)

EOY 2005: Nadal (2), Gasquet (16), Monfils (30), Murray (64), Djoko (78), Del Potro (157) (quite a team there!) Stakhovsky (184), Korolev (185), Istomin (196), Jenkins (263), Granollers (280), A Beck (286), Fognini (305)...Troicki (337), Cuevas (354)

Now: Kyrgios (37), Coric(85), Hyeon Chung (120) - coming up it seems! - Zverev (138), Kokkinakis (143), Nishioka (154), J Donaldson (174)... Anr my favourite is Andrey Rublev (370), of Russia, just because of his name:)


However, I think the list is quite useless... It would certainly be a better indication to see the progress in rankings of the youngsters, how long it took them to break Top 100, etc. That's imo a better clue on whether we're to expect future Top players (not just ATG, but continuous GS seeds)

[dummy_half]

Biugo

Thanks for the list of names - I think it's actually quite informative to look at who broke into the top 100 or 50 as teenagers (Murray and Djoko did in 06, and were respectively ranked #10 and #6 shortly before turning 20). I think it pretty much confirms my expectation, that pretty much all the greats were coming through as youngsters, but that there are a few who also reached an early peak and didn't progress.

The Class of 84 is pretty impressive - 3 Slam champions and the other 2 had good pro careers.

I think the 2005 list is interesting as well - Gasquet at 16 and Monfils at 30 at such young ages. While they've peaked higher than these levels, these are probably quite close to their average rankings over the last few years. Just shows that some players (Hewitt would be another example) burst through quickly and find their level, while others continue to progress for another year or two

Your comment regarding cycling is a bit mis-leading. Cycling is a pure endurance sport, and hardly ever has a superstar emerge before about 22 (well, other than Merckx, who was winning pro races at 19). While fitness is an issue in tennis, it also requires elasticity, speed and recovery, which don't improve with age. And the guys have all been playing since they were 6 and have had focussed training from being 11 or 12 - their techniques are pretty well set by the time they reach the pros. Now, tactics and court-craft is a different matter, especially for guys who were dominant juniors because of their physical stature, as when they start playing on the men's tour they no longer have that advantage.

[biugo]

Thanks Dummy, good points about cycling too - I didn't think it through so much before, I agree with you.

And as much as seeing our current stars in action, I really hope for new comers to bring something more to the tour (I guess that's also why I've always liked hot heads or flamboyant players).
Nadal reached the top very fast, but I rememeber people "knew" that it was just a matter of time before Federer got big (even before Sampras match I reckon). Gasquet had a similar label though as he was spotted very young, but didn't deliver as anticipated.

Is there a player currently upping expectations of Tennis fans and media? (real question, I don't have an idea, although it seems to be starting with Kyrgios, but honestly it feels it's more by default...)
And moreover, there are sometimes guys like Monfils who got close to get a Junior Grand Slam, like Edberg did iirc, but also stayed away from the top spots. I think Tennis federations should hire mental managers (or some like that), to capitalize on young talents. Federer had his demons, which he got rid off at around 22.. Murray had that too, and for me got a monkey off his back after coming back from 2 sets down and a match point against Gasquet in Wimby (interesting parallel they had, these too: same age and both coined future greats, Gasquet kept crumbling after this match, whereas Murray went where we know)

[biugo]

Dummy_half - as it's off topic, I moved it to a new thread for youngsters

[Jahu]

Andy being chopped like a Scottish salmon 6:1 2:2 for Coric.

[Josiah Maiestas]

This surface should suit Andy yet he's made error after error. Coric going through very easily and could face Federer in the SF haha

[Josiah Maiestas]

Andy looks like he's not even top 50 today, he got thrashed by a kid.

Coric in semi's

[Jahu]

Andy goes home, what a kickass match.

Andy is a joke btw

[Josiah Maiestas]

55 unforced errors, this is your number 3 player folks.

[Jahu]

Not mine

Raonic is more fun hahahaah

[Josiah Maiestas]

I bet Kim will not be giving him any 'satisfaction' tonight after that aha

[Born Slippy]

55 unforced errors in 16 games? That can't be accurate surely. That would suggest that virtually every point Coric won was a Murray error.

[Jahu]

Not sure there, he will sneak somehow tonight, and get her a $1M diamond something from Tiffany's in Dubai Mall, to chill her out

[laverfan]

Absolute dogmuck from Murray. He needs to start playing Challengers, like Muller, at this rate.

[Josiah Maiestas]

Absolute seabiscuits from Murray. He needs to start playing Challengers, like Muller, at this rate.

Woah there, did you lose money on him LF?

Well Coric won 66 points and 55 were terrible Murray errors. Was he afraid of meeting his maker potentially in the next round?

[Josiah Maiestas]

If I was being fueled on conspiracy I'd pitch that Andy was told to let Coric through for the 'new generation'. Berdych already break up

[HM Murdock]

The weeks following Australia have been a problem period for Andy in a number of years.

It's looking like he could be about to go through it again.

[laverfan]

Absolute droppings from Murray. He needs to start playing Challengers, like Muller, at this rate.

Woah there, did you lose money on him LF?

Well Coric won 66 points and 55 were terrible Murray errors. Was he afraid of meeting his maker potentially in the next round?

No money changed hands, but Murray was busy pushing the ball back hoping for errors. For a Murray fan, not every error was an attempt at a winner.  Coric was dragging Murray's anal area around the court and dictating every play.

The weeks following Australia have been a problem period for Andy in a number of years.

This goes on till almost Miami. If he loses AO SFs, his year is a bit more even, but getting to the SF/F seems to just take the wind out of his sails.

[It Must Be Love]

Laverfan's nimble use of symbols to negotiate v2's filters is the clearest bit of evidence Murray was awful.

I only watched the last 2 games, Murray made some very silly mistakes while Coric kept calm under pressure.

[laverfan]

The current ATP#3 needs his head examined, IMVHO (apologies to Murray fans for criticism. IMVHO, it is deserved).

[Guest]

Absolute wine gums from Murray. He needs to start playing Challengers, like Muller, at this rate.

I share your frustration LF.

Never seen such a limp performance like that from a world number 3 and slam winner!

[CaledonianCraig]

Well thankfully (though wouldn't have said that at the time) I missed the Murray match as was at A and E. Anyway the result speaks for itself and strikes me as being much like the dross he produced for a lot of last year. At this rate my epitaph thread remains very pertinent.

[laverfan]

At this rate my epitaph thread remains very pertinent.

He is the same as age as current ATP #1, is ATP #3. I can understand this being to McEnroe at 1992 USO, but not for Murray. I am certain he would have played better, if Mauresmo was in the stands.

Apologies to Murray fans for my outburst.

[Sponsored content]