Australian Open Day 10-14 - Djokurray! And others! :P

First topic message reminder :

Also not Berdych's biggest fan, but I do like him, and he's a watch connoisseur, I'm an amateur watch maker... Gotta support the market!

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:For me Murray is joint favourite with Djokovic.

The rest, good luck.

At this stage, I think Andy has a better chance than Novak because he has a better chance of winning his SF.

Is that a jinx

I think you are discounting Novak too easily. He wasn't at his best today and he ran out in straight sets without facing a BP.

If I was Stan watching that, I would be worried.

HM now perilously close to getting sued by me on grounds of theft of intellectual property (after my world famous v2 jinx patent)

Joint favourite?

Murray for me has the worst chance of the 4 left. Hasn't looked 'pretty' in any of his last few matches. Berdych will eat up his serve.

Let's see if Berd can hang on to that bottle first!

Mr incredible looks pretty unbeatable for now. He's going to have to be complicit in his own downfall I feel to not win the tournament

To me it is hard to say who is the clear favorite. Stan has beaten Novak here last year, is in great form, and playing on his favorite surface where he is the defending champion. Novak is the world #1 and 4 time champion on this court and hasn't dropped a set. For me Stan and Novak would be joint top favorites, Murray third favorite, and Berdych a distant 4th. Although I think Berdy will beat Murray and if the final is Berdy v. Wawrinka I think Berdy will win. If it is Berdy v. Novak it will be Novak who wins. As for STan v. Novak it is about as close to 50/50 as you can get.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:For me Murray is joint favourite with Djokovic.

The rest, good luck.

At this stage, I think Andy has a better chance than Novak because he has a better chance of winning his SF.

Is that a jinx

I think you are discounting Novak too easily. He wasn't at his best today and he ran out in straight sets without facing a BP.

If I was Stan watching that, I would be worried.

Ha! No, I'm not jinxing.

I mean if we say there is no clear favourite in a final between Novak and Andy, but Andy has a better chance of being in the final because he has the easier SF, then at this stage his chances are better overall.

I'm relatively confident that Andy will beat Berdych, but Novak v Stan is closer to call.

It Must Be Love wrote:HM now perilously close to getting sued by me on grounds of theft of intellectual property (after my world famous v2 jinx patent)

I'm just a student, IMBL, you are still the master.

temporary21 wrote:Mr incredible looks pretty unbeatable for now. He's going to have to be complicit in his own downfall I feel to not win the tournament

It's not like that is unprecedented!

Interestingly, if STan gets through Novak and Andy loses to Berdy, Wawrinka holds a 10-5 lead in the H2H and has won the last five. Either way things don't look good for Berdy, clearly a 4th favorite.

Berdy could have a chance of doing a Cilic and riding some top form all the way through to the title.

But Cilic was also a little fortunate that some other big contenders were not in good form. Berdy does not have that luxury.

Djokovic H2H 16-3 v. Wawrinka
Djokovic v. Murray 15-8
Djokovic v. Berdych 17-2

In that respect it looks pretty good for Novak. But really the Wawrinka match doesn't accurately reflect how good they are currently on this particularly surface.

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:For me Murray is joint favourite with Djokovic.

The rest, good luck.

At this stage, I think Andy has a better chance than Novak because he has a better chance of winning his SF.

Is that a jinx

I think you are discounting Novak too easily. He wasn't at his best today and he ran out in straight sets without facing a BP.

If I was Stan watching that, I would be worried.

Ha! No, I'm not jinxing.

I mean if we say there is no clear favourite in a final between Novak and Andy, but Andy has a better chance of being in the final because he has the easier SF, then at this stage his chances are better overall.

I'm relatively confident that Andy will beat Berdych, but Novak v Stan is closer to call.

For Djokovic he has been in cruise control. Not exponing lots of energy in the process. He has the gears to click into and I think the Djokovic of 12 months ago is gone. I think he will take the fight to Stan if he starts bombing winners.

As for Andy I am more than happy with his performances and importantly he looks fresh. Yes Berdych has been playing well, I don't think he has the reserves should he go a set behind. Dimitrov went all out in the first set against Andy and still lost it. Berdych needs that first set. If he goes all out, he's toast.

If it were Bo3, I'd wouldn't be too surprised at a Berd win.

But I just can't see him taking 3 sets off Andy. Maybe if they go to tie breaks perhaps.

All 4 have looked ridiculously impressive. I doubt there has been a slam in the last 30 years where the 4 players have dropped a combined total of 2 sets.

I see Djokovic as clear favourite. I don't agree its a 50-50 shot versus Stan. I think Stan would win about 1 in every 3. Berdych v Murray is closer to 50-50 but with Murray having a slight edge.

If Novak wins then he is huge favourite no matter who he plays in the final. If Novak loses then Murray is favourite for me over Stan (I can't see Stan producing the back to back perfection he would need to beat Novak and Andy). If its Stan v Tomas then Stan is favourite - h2h and I think Berdy will still crumble in the bright lights of a slam final.

Two fascinating semi-finals. No doubt Djokovic and Murray are the 'better' players in their respective SFs based on their career achievements, but each have opponents that have caused them serious difficulties in the past.

For the Murray v Berdych match, it's tricky to assess form. Andy looks improved in fitness and movement compared with his disappointing level of 2013, but so far only has victories over Dimitrov and a rusty Nadal (in an exho) to back up the perceptions.
Berdych has looked very good this tournament, but the big question is whether his change of coach has improved him beyond his previous level.
Both looked good in their QFs, but noting that this was against opponents performing relatively poorly (Kyrgios because of fatigue after back to back 5 setters, Rafa still below par after injury).
Tough one to call - I've said 50/50 elsewhere, but I have a feeling Berdych might just edge it, based on previous history of this match up (i.e. that of the 'big hitters', Berdych is the one who causes Andy the most trouble). However, if Andy lands 70% of his first serves as he has in his last 2 matches, he'll be very tough to beat.

Djoko v Stan is in some ways more straightforward to assess. Current #1 against defending champion, both ideally suited to this type of moderately slow HC. Played each other in the last 2 AOs, with a win each in very tight matches. No reason to expect anything else, although my feeling is that Djokovic will have the edge this time. Suspect 3 or 4 tight sets though.

Djokovic is the favourite, but in Nishikori, Wawrinka had better "simulation" for his next opponent, than Djokovic had in Raonic. It's mighty close between the two on Aussie blue, nine hours of tennis in two years, and it's 5-5 in sets. The 2013 final set went 12-10, the 2014 one 9-7, so maybe something like that can make the difference. Do think though that if Djokovic has a good serving day, it's likely to be his day, as Wawrinka isn't the most blessed of returners

Some excellent posts. I don't take Stan for granted frankly. If Novak gets by Stan I have a feeling he will win it. But I think it is very close to 50/50 against Stan. Like Murdoch I think if Novak brings aggression against Stan and takes the initiative he will win. But so often he has inexplicably become passive in big slam matches. If he fights this urge and goes after the defending champion then I think he will win the semi and win the final.

BS makes a great point all 4 guys have looked really impressive. This is the case of 4 top ranked guys with big games all playing at a very high level. No one is a surprise, no one snuck his way in. This makes things very interesting.

TRuffin - I've made two thus far. The first one was a Quartz watch. Rather simple to make, the second was a mechanical time piece. Was a real labour of love, and cost a rather large amount due to pieces breaking and going missing (I only converted the spare room in my old apartment into a workshop of sorts halfway through the project). It's still running, though I suspect I calibrated it a little slowly, infinitesimally small, but it's not quite running right. Think I've lost about thirty seconds to minute in the last four months.

Not quite able to afford a Rolex at the moment, in fact I don't think I could even afford a reasonably priced second hand Rolex, but I've got two Fossils and an Emporio Armani Ar5912 chronograph piece to go with my two hand crafted watches.

How many do you have?

kingraf wrote:TRuffin - I've made two thus far. The first one was a Quartz watch. Rather simple to make, the second was a mechanical time piece. Was a real labour of love, and cost a rather large amount due to pieces breaking and going missing (I only converted the spare room in my old apartment into a workshop of sorts halfway through the project). It's still running, though I suspect I calibrated it a little slowly, infinitesimally small, but it's not quite running right. Think I've lost about thirty seconds to minute in the last four months.

Not quite able to afford a Rolex at the moment, in fact I don't think I could even afford a reasonably priced second hand Rolex, but I've got two Fossils and an Emporio Armani Ar5912 chronograph piece to go with my two hand crafted watches.

How many do you have?

I've got quite a good collection. I used to work with some athletes that worked with Rolex and I became friendly with some in the company, and developed a "sickness" for that brand. Since have branched off into trying to get at least one of all the big boys- but my favs are Rolex and Omega. Omega has some amazing movement technology with their new inhouse Gauss/master coaxial movements. I've spent some time in the Rolex repair facility in New York and Pa... You would be in heaven in there.. just fascinating to watch the master watchmakers. I've never really tinkered with it myself, but am really impressed you were able to build a movement from scratch. Chonometer rating is -2 to +6 seconds a day, so your accuracy is pretty darn good!!! PM me sometime if you want to watch talk!!

I'm more of a Tag man myself. They taught me the art in workshops, so brand loyalty I guess. They were workshops for previously disadvantaged, snuck myself in out of curiosity. You go to one or two, it becomes a bit of an obsession!! Didn't even do engineering at school, so all I know is from the workshop. It is pretty accurate, but you've got to keep in mind that I took the best part of four months getting timing right, To still be off is a bit of a bug bear. I'm not actually the biggest Rolex fan, it's a nice watch, just not to my liking. Would love to own a Richard Mille though. Also like myself some Hublot. It is a bit of a bucket list item to see some masters at work.

Won't mind discussing watches at all mate, it's a rather rare hobby my side of the world for socio economic reasons. Been procrastinating a bit with the ordering of the parts for the new time pieces, two Quartz watches. One for me, one for my girlfriend. It's a rather expensive, time consuming process, making one, so hopefully she also doesn't want an engagement ring down the line!!

Bloody 'ell Raf, is there anything you don't do

I bet you haven't seen the volcano buried in the deepest depths of Neptune, 6 million miles beneath the surface



emancipator

dummy_half wrote:Two fascinating semi-finals. No doubt Djokovic and Murray are the 'better' players in their respective SFs based on their career achievements, but each have opponents that have caused them serious difficulties in the past.

For the Murray v Berdych match, it's tricky to assess form. Andy looks improved in fitness and movement compared with his disappointing level of 2013, but so far only has victories over Dimitrov and a rusty Nadal (in an exho) to back up the perceptions.
Berdych has looked very good this tournament, but the big question is whether his change of coach has improved him beyond his previous level.
Both looked good in their QFs, but noting that this was against opponents performing relatively poorly (Kyrgios because of fatigue after back to back 5 setters, Rafa still below par after injury).
Tough one to call - I've said 50/50 elsewhere, but I have a feeling Berdych might just edge it, based on previous history of this match up (i.e. that of the 'big hitters', Berdych is the one who causes Andy the most trouble). However, if Andy lands 70% of his first serves as he has in his last 2 matches, he'll be very tough to beat.

Djoko v Stan is in some ways more straightforward to assess. Current #1 against defending champion, both ideally suited to this type of moderately slow HC. Played each other in the last 2 AOs, with a win each in very tight matches. No reason to expect anything else, although my feeling is that Djokovic will have the edge this time. Suspect 3 or 4 tight sets though.

I do think the match-up issues Murray has with Berdy are slightly overblown. Three of Berdy's wins are on clay - a surface on which Andy has an abysmal record against any top 10 player. Its 4-3 to Andy on hard with Andy having won their biggest two hard court matches rather easily. It isn't dissimilar to Andy's record versus Raonic - a player I feel he would dispatch easily in any 5 set hard court match.

That said, Berdy's return game is better than the likes of Tsonga and that does give him more of a shot than most of the big hitters. Have to say though, I thought Andy looked totally relaxed about this match - eerily confident. If he gets his tactics right and dictates play, it will be hard for Berdy to live with him.

Hah!! Quite a bit that I don't/can't do Emancipator. Still can't play a musical instrument, and God knows I've given it a fair whack. Also deathly terrified of ice skating (my girlfriend absolutely hates this about me) and winter sports in general. Can't draw either. I have my positives though. I'm a polyglot, so if you ever stuck in Africa drop me a pm and I'll give you list of phrases so the locals can't plan to mug you in front of you (unless you're in North Africa... raf can't speak Arabic). I do however admit to not having seen the volcano buried in the deepest depths of Neptune

On tennis. Instinctively, I give Murray the win. And Djokovic the win. Hopefully though, Stan and the Berd play to either announce the realisation of potential, or the confirmation of a new superstar in the sport

Berdych will crush Murray in straight sets. 6/3 6/4 6/3.

I really fancy Murray's chances of overcoming Berdych. When was the last time Murray lost to someone outside the Big 4 at this stage of a slam? Don't think it's happened since Wimby 09 against Roddick. Murray tends to be pretty solid when the draw opens up for him like this.

PS I've never manufactured my own timepiece. Am I still allowed to post on this thread?

Gerry SA wrote:Berdych will crush Murray in straight sets. 6/3 6/4 6/3.

K, placing a bet on Murray now then.

Hope Serena loses, I'm tired of her and Djoko

Aut0Gr4ph wrote:I really fancy Murray's chances of overcoming Berdych. When was the last time Murray lost to someone outside the Big 4 at this stage of a slam? Don't think it's happened since Wimby 09 against Roddick. Murray tends to be pretty solid when the draw opens up for him like this.

PS I've never manufactured my own timepiece. Am I still allowed to post on this thread?

I picked Berdych in this match up, but at the sake of hedging Murray has to still be favorite to win. He is a more accomplished player and better athlete than Berdych despite Berdych's huge power. And you are right once Murray gets this deep and is facing someone not named Nadal, Fed, or Djoko he usually takes the guy apart.

A big shout out to Katie Swan who has made the semis of the juniors in Australia. Only 15 years of age!

Andy!

Well... someone's nailed their colours on to a mast, eh LK? Would have been ideal had the Wawrinka-Djokovic match been first, so I could better pick who I want to win here.
Wawrinka wins - go Berdych
Djokovic wins - go Murray!

I will always back Andy raf :freedom: just nice someone from this island winning Slams. My nan rest her soul had the pleasure of witnessing Perry and Murray's Wimbledon success!

Murray or Stan or both if possible!

Berdych settled better. Murray not returning very well. Early days, but Andy will need to play better than this if he is to win.

Berdych 92% first serves in!

Must be getting under Berdych's skin getting to deuce on Murray's service games and not converting.

Murray really on the back foot. Always the same against Berdych. This set only going one way at the moment.

Berdych breaks and then gets broken serving for the set!

Berdych blinks! This would be a tremendous set to nick if Murray can.

Too much not functioning at the moment with Murray's game. First serve not firing yet, return game not firing to any great degree and a bit too passive for my liking.

Wow, the Murray slice is outrageous!

Winner of this game wins the set

Danny_1982 wrote:Winner of this game wins the set

Winner of this set wins the match.

I bet Berdych's heart is right in his @rse!

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:Winner of this game wins the set

Winner of this set wins the match.

I think Berdych needs this set more than Murray.

Missed opportunities for Murray, but encouraging signs all the same. He's starting to get the first strike in rallies, which is definitely the way to go. Berdych scrambling all over the place.

HM Murdoch wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:Winner of this game wins the set

Winner of this set wins the match.

I think Berdych needs this set more than Murray.

Without a doubt.

This is the match right here for Berdych.

That is a key set win for me. Berdych takes tiebreaker and if truth be told he deserved that set. That will feed Berdych growing confidence and add more seeds of doubt in Andy's mind about head-to-head record etc.

Well, we have a game now.

I'd still favour Murray to get the win but if Berdych had lost the first set, I think there would have have been no chance of him winning 3 out of 4 sets, on this court, with an hour of tennis already in his legs.