OWGR-Feb 2015 Are World Class Golfers Getting Younger?

Congratulations to Rory, Brooks and Matthew Goggin for winning their respective events on the Euro, PGAT and Web-com tours.  Rory increases his lead on #2 Stenson to over 4.00 points, Brooks gets to #19 and Goggin goes from #709 to #386 in the OWGR rankings.

One of the announcers yesterday said the top golfers are getting younger, so I decided to look at the year end rankings from 1999, 2004, 2009 and todays rankings to see if that was true.  Look for a summary in the next post.

But first:  Here are the rankings as of this morning.  (Bolded Players are already qualified for the 2015 Masters.  All four of the 2015 winners on the PGATour were already qualified for the Masters)

1 Rory McIlroy 11.66
2 Henrik Stenson 7.62
3 Bubba Watson 7.41
4 Adam Scott 6.95
5 Justin Rose 6.25
6 Sergio Garcia 6.15
7 Jim Furyk 6.05
8 Jason Day 5.64
9 Jordan Spieth 5.52
10 Matt Kuchar 5.18
11 Martin Kaymer 5.11
12 Rickie Fowler 5.10
13 Jimmy Walker 4.79
14 Hideki Matsuyama 4.44
15 Victor Dubuisson 4.20
16 Patrick Reed 4.20
17 Billy Horschel 4.18
18 Phil Mickelson 3.99
19 Brooks Koepka 3.84
20 Graeme McDowell 3.81
21 Zach Johnson 3.70
22 Chris Kirk 3.61
23 Dustin Johnson 3.54
24 Bill Haas 3.38
25 Hunter Mahan 3.38
26 Jamie Donaldson 3.31
27 Charl Schwartzel 3.22
28 Kevin Na 3.20
29 Ryan Palmer 3.16
30 Lee Westwood  3.15
31 Stephen Gallacher 3.10
32 Ian Poulter 3.02
33 Ryan Moore 2.98
34 Joost Luiten 2.94
35 Keegan Bradley 2.94
36 Thomas Bjorn 2.69
37 Thongchai Jaidee 2.67
38 Webb Simpson 2.64
39 Gary Woodland 2.61
40 Luke Donald 2.60
41 Jason Dufner 2.60
42 Miguel Jimenez 2.58
43 Louis Oosthuizen 2.56
44 Shane Lowry 2.53
45 Branden Grace 2.53
46 Marc Leishman 2.51
47 Danny Willett 2.49
48 Bernd Wiesberger 2.44
49 Alexander Levy 2.42
50 Marc Warren 2.41
========
51 Mikko Ilonen 2.40
52 Steve Stricker 2.38
53 Russell Henley 2.38
54 Brendon Todd 2.37
55 Tommy Fleetwood 2.35
56 Tiger Woods 2.35
57 John Senden 2.34
58 Francesco Molinari 2.33
59 Graham DeLaet 2.24
60 Kevin Streelman 2.22
61 Tim Clark 2.22
62 Marcel Siem 2.19
63 Brandt Snedeker 2.19
64 Koumei Oda 2.19
65 Ross Fisher 2.11
66 Ernie Els 2.10
67 Charley Hoffman 2.10
68 Jonas Blixt 2.08
69 Ben Martin 2.05
70 Harris English 1.94
71 Andy Sullivan 1.94
72 J.B. Holmes 1.94
73 Anirban Lahiri 1.92
74 Hiroshi Iwata 1.91
75 Pablo Larrazabal 1.86
76 Robert Streb 1.82
77 Kevin Stadler 1.80
78 Angel Cabrera 1.80
79 Sang-Moon Bae 1.78
80 Paul Casey 1.76
81 George Coetzee 1.76
82 Matt Jones 1.75
83 Matt Every 1.72
84 Justin Thomas 1.70
85 Shingo Katayama 1.69
86 Brendon de Jonge 1.68
87 Brian Harman 1.67
88 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.66
89 Gary Stal 1.62
90 Shawn Stefani 1.60
91 Steven Bowditch 1.57
92 Cameron Tringale 1.57
93 Russell Knox 1.56
94 Tomohiro Kondo 1.53
95 Scott Piercy 1.53
96 Hideto Tanihara 1.53
97 Erik Compton 1.50
98 Seung-Yul Noh 1.49
99 Geoff Ogilvy 1.48
100 Hennie Otto 1.47
=====
101 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.46
102 Freddie Jacobson 1.45
103 Richie Ramsay 1.45
104 Emiliano Grillo 1.45
105 Andrew Johnston 1.43

Top 30 ranked golfers from Year end 1999, 2004, 2009 and Feb-2015.

1999

Average 34.4
Median 34.7
Youngest 20.0 Sergio Garcia
Oldest 43.7 Hal Sutton

2004

Average 35.3
Median 35.3
Youngest 24.5 Adam Scott
Oldest 51.1 Jay Haas

2009

Average 34.1
Median 33.9
Youngest 18.3 Ryo Ishikawa
Oldest 49.4 Kenny Perry

2015

Average 32.6
Median 32.7
Youngest 21.5 Jordan Spieth
Oldest 44.7 Jim Furyk

So it does appear that the current crop of Top 30 golfers is younger than 5, 10, and 15 years ago.  Not by a tremendous amount.

Thanks for that GPB, good to see some actual thought going into these assertions rather than the commentators hunch.


I do wonder if the golf Media just haven't come to terms with the fact that the previous generation of players like Woods, Mickelson, VJ, Els, Furyk, Westwood, Stricker etc who used to be the top players whenever they teed it up are now pretty damn old and that the mid 30's players are where its at.  As has always been the case as you have shown. Basically the media class anyone younger than that generation as youngsters, even if they are 35.

Rory starting to open quite a gap at the top, almost Tiger-esque.

GPB,
You will know whether changes to the owgr criteria have accelerated young players in to the rankings earlier than they otherwise would be.
Almost shocking that Koepka and Matsuyama have risen so high so quickly, but then Koepka in particular doesn't have many points to "defend". Justin Thomas will surely be added to that list shortly.

It was a three year ranking period in 1999, otherwise there wasn't any major changes to the rankings that makes it easier for young players to crack the top 30.

Yeah, I wondered if the three-year amortization would keep older guys in the rankings for longer.

Anyway, definitely an advantage for the College guys who find a way to skip the web.com Tour, although Koepka overcame that.

So far though, only Patrick Reed and Rory have become consistent Young Gun winners.
EDIT: And the Japanese of course, mainly in Japan.

I don't have the raw data or I'd do it myself .. but what would the numbers look like over the same period for the top 10 or top 5 rather than the top 30?

Interesting conclusions and don't take it personally but what made you choose 30?

Davie wrote:I don't have the raw data or I'd do it myself .. but what would the numbers look like over the same period for the top 10 or top 5 rather than the top 30?

Interesting conclusions and don't take it personally but what made you choose 30?

When running ANOVA and T-Test statistical samples, it is generally accepted that 30 samples is the mininum number of samples for a representative sample.

Here are the top 5 for each time period and there age.

1999

Tiger Woods	24.0
David Duval	28.1
Colin Montgomery	36.5
Davis Love III	35.7
Ernie Els	30.2

2004

Vijay Singh	41.9
Tiger Woods	29.0
Ernie Els	35.2
Retief Goosen	35.9
Phil Mickelson	34.5

2009

Tiger Woods	34.0
Phil Mickelson	39.5
Steve Stricker	42.9
Lee Westwood	36.6
Padraig Harrington	38.3

2015

Rory McIlroy	25.7
Henrik Stenson	38.8
Bubba Watson	37.1
Adam Scott	34.5
Justin Rose	34.5

Tennis player Stan Wawrinka dropped from #4 to #9 in the ATP rankings after the Aus.  He lost by losing in the Semifinals.  But he lost points because he won last years Aus Open.

Not sure whether it'll help the yutes or the veterans, but owgr confirms:
52 pts for San Diego winner.
38 pts for McDowell (sorry, Maybank winner).

Farmers checking at OWGR 52
Malaysia at OWGR 38

According to PD

Rose and Day can get to #4
Spieth to #5
Fowler #6
Walker #8
Hideki, billyHo #10

Looks like Adam Scott could fall out of top 6 or 7 before he returns to the game.

In answer to the original question: Yes they are, or I'm getting older, can't quite work out which. Golfers all used to be older than me, now a lot of them are younger. Hate it when the world number one is so young he was born in a different decade to me... kind of signals that time is running out and maybe I'm not going to make it to 19 majors after all.

If I was a footballer I would have announced my retirement from international football long ago

raycastleunited wrote:... kind of signals that time is running out and maybe I'm not going to make it to 19 majors after all.

kouchi wrote:

raycastleunited wrote:... kind of signals that time is running out and maybe I'm not going to make it to 19 majors after all.

Christ - I might not make it to 19.30

Reading an article at Golfchannel.com and they said Tiger needs a 12th place finish to be in the top 50 on Monday.

That does him no good at all.  He needs a 3rd place finish to make sure he is in the top 50 on Feb 23rd for the first of two deadlines for the Top 50.

GPB, I think Golfchannel are reading our board. They posted a similar article re players getting younger after you posted your stats. I'm sure they'll also pick up on the Tiger OWGR situation.

I didn't see the article on world Class players getting younger.

But I did send my information to someone not connected with Golf Channel.  Not sure if he is going to blog about it.

I only did the analysis after I heard one of the announcers on CBS make the comment.

Posted this in the Torrey Pines thread:

Assuming Tiger does not play (or earns ZERO points if he does play) here is Tiger's OWGR averages going forward, and his projected ranking (based on this weeks rankings) through Masters week

Date	Tourney	Pts	Avg	Rank
2-Feb-2015	T. Pines	93.93	2.348	56th
9-Feb-2014	Pebble	89.09	2.227	60th
16-Feb-2014	Riviera	84.26	2.106	66th
23-Feb-2014	Honda	79.42	1.986	70th
2-Mar-2014	Cadillac	74.58	1.864	75th
9-Mar-2014	Tampa Bay	69.75	1.744	83rd
16-Mar-2014	Bay Hill	65.73	1.643	89th
23-Mar-2014	Texas	61.71	1.543	94th
30-Mar-2014	Houston	58.40	1.460	100th
6-Apr-2014	Masters	55.10	1.377	111th

 
Tiger will lose 3 pts/wk after the Masters and before the Players.  After the Players, he loses 2.14 pts per week.

It will probably take an average of 2.2 to make the match play tournament, which for him is 88 pts.  Attrition will take his net points down to ~49 on the Matchplay deadline  so he will need to earn at least 39-40 points by April 20th to make the match play.

Virtually out of the Top 1000 by year's end. Is this at all possible?
https://twitter.com/VC606/status/563610069364129792/photo/1

YESS!!!!
Over two years; remember, his 2014 was horrible, and this is worse, so far at least.
Imagine he'll right the ship or hang the clubs up for a while.

Yep, I guess it is possible.  He was about 400th in gross points earned in 2014 and as of right now, he is DFL in gross points earned in 2015.  

His new sponsors won't like it too much if he hangs up his clubs.

Just got confirmation, Tiger is falling to at least 59th (Senden, Frankie, and T. Clark passing him).  Harry English needs a two way T3 or better to pass him this week.

With wins

Westy can get to 20th.
Canizares can get to about 70th

English to low 30's
Vegas to low 70's
N. Thompson to high 70's

Idle Furyk gets back to #5 unless Rose finishes in top 20, or Day finishes in the top 2, or Spieth wins.

Think Furyk is makes his 2015 debut next week in Pebble Beach

Looks like Mickelson is trunk slamming and he will fall out of the top 25 for the first time since 1995 later this month.  His average is falling to a congested area and he will probably drop into the 30's before he tees it up again at Honda.

We're starting to see much more Top 50 turnover, what with Stricker and Woods waving au revoir (goodbye?), Phil in a mess, Luke Donald slumping, Dufner not returning to form, Oosthuizen in the sick room, Schwartzel in a funk, and Thomas Bjorn yet to demonstrate any motivation for 2015.

The Young Guns that everyone goes on about will take some of their places, but so will seasoned vets, like Warren and Wiesberger, Lowry and, hopefully, Ilonen. Still waiting to see who the mid-thirties American will be this year, following in the footsteps of Dufner, Jimmy Walker, etc.. Perhaps the re-birth of Snedeker?

EDIT: Very surprised to see the Maybank, especially, and Farmers apparently don't take a hit with Dubuisson and DeLaet withdrawing.

Maybank barely stayed a OWGR 38.  Doobie only brings 11 EVR to the table

When Mahan WD, Farmers went from a weak 54 to a strong 52.  Delaet later withdrawing has not much of a hit.

Pebble Beach is looking like a strong 46 right now.  (but that includes Hunter Mahan).  If Mahan WD's it will still be a 46m, but very vulnerable to another WD.

Pebble Beach SoF is trending up.  It was rated 38, 40, and 44 in 2012-2014

After Malaysia and before Torrey Pines results:

Lahiri goes to #37 (2.66) and Weisberger goes to #36 (2.84).

I think Weisberger has clinched a spot in the top 50 on March 30th for a Masters Invite.

Lahiri is still vulnerable though.  I am projecting his average to about 2.53 on March 30 which should be close to the bubble.  

Warren helped his position slightly with his solo 9th, he is temporarily up to 47th

Luke is  dropping at least 6 spots to #46 and  Jimenez is down to #45 and neither has qualified for the Cadillac yet.   And Marc Leishman with a top 15 could easily pass them this afternoon in Torrey Pines.  And English could pass Luke with a solo 2nd.  A English win would pass both Luke and Jimenez

Luke will likely be outside the top 50 next week as he is not playing at Pebble (or anywhere else that I can find).  The Mechanic needs to play well in Thailand to stop his slide.

Luke is not playing next week, so he will likely drop out of the top 50 (and Doral bubble).  Jimenez is playing in Thailand and he will need a good result.

Luke is not listed in the Northern Trust field, yet.  He will most definitely be out of the top 50 on Feb 23 for the first Cadillac deadline if he is not playing the next two weeks.

Tiger is dropping to at least 60th (Senden, Molinari, Clark and Lahiri have passed him).

kwinigolfer wrote:We're starting to see much more Top 50 turnover, what with Stricker and Woods waving au revoir (goodbye?), Phil in a mess, Luke Donald slumping, Dufner not returning to form, Oosthuizen in the sick room, Schwartzel in a funk, and Thomas Bjorn yet to demonstrate any motivation for 2015.

The Young Guns that everyone goes on about will take some of their places, but so will seasoned vets, like Warren and Wiesberger, Lowry and, hopefully, Ilonen. Still waiting to see who the mid-thirties American will be this year, following in the footsteps of Dufner, Jimmy Walker, etc.. Perhaps the re-birth of Snedeker?

EDIT: Very surprised to see the Maybank, especially, and Farmers apparently don't take a hit with Dubuisson and DeLaet withdrawing.

Lowry a seasoned vet at 27?

Jason Day to #4 after his win, Adam Scott has fallen to #5.

Weisberger and Lahiri are #36 and #37

Holmes and English to #49 and #55 and Stallings jumps to about 85th.

Jimenez at #46
Luke at #47

I think Luke will fall out of top 50 next week, Jimenez too if finishes well off the pace in Thailand.

Holmes and English both passed Woods, he is down to #62, his worst ranking since 1996.

Wouldn't YOU call Lowry a seasoned vet?
First top win in 2009; certainly earlier than Bubba, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson, among others won their's. Or Jamie Donaldson for that matter.

Great insight on the owgr's GPB.

Fair point!

I wonder how when the last time Scott wasn't Aussie number 1? Maybe Day got ahead of him at some point a couple of years back!?

Day was ranked ahead of Scott in the later part of 2011 and early 2012.  Day was 7th after the Tour Championship and Scott was 9th.

Scott overtook Day in late May 2012 and has been ahead of Day since that time.  Until today.

Ogilvy and Allenby were ahead of Scott in 2009.

BTW...the Top 50 hurdle went from 2.42 last week to 2.47.  

It is really a logjam from #41 to #58, less than 0.3 pts separation.

Only one tenth point separating #48 to #52.

Some Pebble withdrawals this morning, but not the father of Miller Myles Mahan . . . . not yet anyway.

Donaldson (bit of a puzzler that), Jacobson, Bae, Gonzo (if he's going to be successful in the States, he'll need to play well in Florida) among others giving "Pebble" a miss.

Robo:  Are you lurking in the thread?  You got mail!

Kwini:  PD tweeted that Pebble is going to be OWGR 48 but those W/Ds would knock it down to level 46.  A Mahan W/D would probably not bring it down to level 44.

====


Edit:  Jasons tenure in the top 4 might be a short one.  He needs a 5th or better to stay ahead of Scott.  Adam is losing a tournament in his divisor and Day is adding a tournament.  But on the other hand, If Jason goes back-to-back, he can become #2.

One golfer who will start going in the wrong rankings direction is Thorbjorn Olesen. Rotoworld reports that he has undergone surgery to repair a tendon in his hand. Expect an absence measured in months rather than weeks. Bad timing.

Quite a lot of the big names are coming back to me. Looking at my divisors, I think a good February monthly medal next week combined with a winter stableford NR from Feb 13 dropping away (it was bloody freezing so I walked in as I recall) might have me within striking distance of ET Woods and FIGJAM.

If I win the Masters and US Open...

Yeah roller me too. I haven't played yet this year to protect my divisor

you could well be tied with Woods by early next year Roller!

Prince Dracula's projection if Tiger doesn't play through 2015. Out of the top 1000 by year's end  

incontinentia wrote:Prince Dracula's projection if Tiger doesn't play through 2015. Out of the top 1000 by year's end  

It could be that way, even if he does play.  If he keeps chipping like my grandmother (and she has been dead 30+ years), his fall down the rankings will be exactly the same.

I only saw these famous chips yesterday on youtube. Thought I had opened the Tin Cup blooper reel by mistake. Apalling.

Woods' US Open exemption expires in 2018, and he has a lifetime exemption for all the other Majors. If he does fall out of the top 1000, can we expect him to still get invited to most of his regular tournaments*??

*If he isn't already exempt under the various categories

incontinentia wrote:
If he does fall out of the top 1000, can we expect him to still get invited to most of his regular tournaments??

Yes. But only for the pro-am's.

Woods is Lifetime Member of the PGATour.  As are all players with 15 years of membership and 20 or more wins.

Tiger will be exempt for all regular PGATour until he dies.  The only current tournaments that he wouldn't be exempt are the WGCs, The FedX Playoff events, the Hyundai ToC, the Players, and the CIMB Malaysia tournament.

He is exempt for all Tournaments like San Diego, Pebble Beach, Well Fargo, Memorial, Los Angeles, Canadian Open etc. for the rest of his life.

Disclaimer:  I think he has to keep a somewhat competitive stroke average.  Like 77 or something.

Other current Active lifetime Members are Mickelson, Singh, and Love.

About 10 years ago, when the PGATour grandfathered all the Open Championship as PGATour wins, it made Greg Norman a Lifetime Member. #18 on the Player exemption list.

http://www.pgatour.com/news/2014/pga-tour-priority-ranking.html

If he needs a 77 stroke average he is buggered.

Ah thanks GPB. It will probably be "Goodbye world" at some point this year though, wouldn't you say? I mean if his back isn't right after surgery and all that rest then it never will be.

The usual rhetoric reported on tghe BBC as coming from him.

Going to rest it and practise and come back when I'm tournament ready.

Sorry, wearing a bit thin now (and I'm a fan).

Maybe he'll skip honda to keep his stroke average below 77. Difficult course..........

The 77 stroke average is nothing he has to worry about in the short term.

Top 50 Cadillac Watch

Luke is not as vulnerable of falling out of top 50 as I had thought.  He is losing two tournaments off his divisor so he has a pretty good chance of staying in the top 50 for the Cadillac.

Jimenez is still very vulnerable of not qualifying for Cadillac, and he is off to a solid start in Thailand.

GPB,
Remember that St.Luke is also 9th in the R2D rankings with Top Ten qualifying for the Caddie. Noren best placed to pass him this week - while Jimenez isn't that far adrift although, if he wins enough money to overtake Luke he'll have qualified in two ways!

MAJ in the lead after the second round! Don't write him off

LadyPutt wrote:MAJ in the lead after the second round! Don't write him off

I am not about to write him off.  One of my favorite Euro Players!

and he needs a good week to make sure of playing the Cadillac as he is projected #51 on Monday (before this weeks results are posted).  A win will get him to about 32nd.  Solo 4th should be more than enough to get him into the Cadillac.

BTW...it is figurative rugby scrum from #37 Lahiri to #50 Holmes going into this weekend.  Just 0.13 points separates them (from 2.57 to 2.44).

37	Anirban Lahiri	2.577
38	Shane Lowry	2.564
39	Webb Simpson	2.561
40	Gary Woodland	2.549
41	Thongchai Jaidee	2.522
42	Thomas Bjorn	2.517
43	Luke Donald	2.495
44	Louis Oosthuizen	2.487
45	Branden Grace	2.483
46	Jason Dufner	2.464
47	Marc Leishman	2.464
48	Marc Warren	2.455
49	Danny Willett	2.445
50	J.B. Holmes	2.445

Bolded players are playing this week.

The Barn Rat would get to about 80th with a win.

SNEED-aker would also get to about 32nd should he win.
Matt Jones would get right in the middle of the #37-50 scrum 

Tiger is dropping to at least 65th.  Marcel Siem needs a 49th or better to pass him, and Koumei Oda needs a top 20.  If they don't pass him this week, they will pass next week.