AUSTRALIA, ENGLAND, WALES. One will not go through.

I'm an England fan.
Just get that out there.

I have had lots of fretful moments thinking about our RWC group since it was announced.
Some of the fog may have cleared on a Friday Cardiff night, along with the showsmoke, the booing, the Hwyl, and the fuzzy heads.

Harsh, but one of these three greats has to go out of the RWC early, such is the luck of the seedings.
But which one will fail to make it ?

Obviously England will make it

I guess the other place will depend on how many Australian rugby players are left in Oz to be picked.

I wouldn't like to place a bet on it but if I had to - Wales.

Currently you would have to say Wales are favourites to get knocked out.. But in 6 weeks time it might be totally different story!

Personally I think Wallabies will finish top of the death group.

I'm backing Fiji to pull a couple of blinders, beat the Aussies and Welsh and qualify second behind the English. Honest.

Wales to miss out probably. But then I'm sure you want me to say Wales to go through so you can have your argument!

Wales are least likely of the 3, obviously.  World rankings, form, England home advantage, recent history between the sides (Wales v Aus).  I mean, it's pretty obvious who is likely to miss out, out of the 3.  Does there need to be a thread on it?!

Well it still plays on my mind.
Plus a bit unjust, as the seedings will see a 'lesser' - not being disrespectful - side go through.

This far out - too soon to tell. Injuries, next 4 games (there are ALWAYS surprises) and Wales have beaten a SH side. At this point I'd say Astrology was your best bet.

Wales will be a different beast come the World Cup.  They'll have that sheen again of super fitness that comes from weeks and weeks together in difficult places like Poland or the Himalayas - fighting Polar bears bare handed, swimming in Antarctic seas in bare bums...they'll have left nothing to chance in the conditioning field and therefore won't be as intimidated physically as they were at the weekend.

After that - nobody knows.  But Gatland has the character to build up a few tricks when he thinks most people are sneering down his way.  He loves the idea of hitting a cheeky messer in the nuts when he's least expecting it (stand up BOD and Adam Jones )

He'll have some tricks, he's not going to be lying down quietly and taking his beating.  It'll be tighter than the weekend suggests and..................  I think Australia might be the victims of one last laugh from GatBall Warren.

gregortree wrote:I'm an England fan.
Just get that out there.

I have had lots of fretful moments thinking about our RWC group since it was announced.
Some of the fog may have cleared on a Friday Cardiff night, along with the showsmoke, the booing, the Hwyl, and the fuzzy heads.

Harsh, but one of these three greats has to go out of the RWC early, such is the luck of the seedings.
But which one will fail to make it  ?

I knew you were on a wind-up when you'd classed Wales as a 'great'.....

Right now, I think it's fairly obvious that Wales will not progress. They are one dimensional and need refreshing. It might be too late for the next WC. Right now, based on performances, nay results, England are the better of the two - and that's with key players missing. Whilst previous Welsh teams will have had little to fear from a trip to Twickenham, this year's ensemble will be worried what happens if England get key players back and get the team playing together. England will be at home, they will expect to beat Wales and i've no doubt that they will. England have the measure of the Wallabies, especially at Twickenham. I would expect Wales to struggle against the Wallabies. Simple supposition I know, but it just seems straight forward at the time of writing.

Cowshot wrote:This far out - too soon to tell. Injuries, next 4 games (there are ALWAYS surprises) and Wales have beaten a SH side. At this point I'd say Astrology was your best bet.

A woeful SA team by the way. Wales also lost narrowly to the Wallabies in Cardiff, after chucking the kitchen sink at them. The same Wallabies that England beat with breathing space in the last AI match....

It depends who's first out of the dressing room.

It is impossible to say what will happen at this stage, a one off performance by anyone of these teams will determine a number of possible outcomes

rodders wrote:It depends who's first out of the dressing room.

No wonder the Welsh hate our smarminess with nuggets like that shooting from all angles.

yes, the Welsh will be drilling the quickest exit they can onto the field as an antidote for what hits them when they decide to be last out.

Jimpy

Might be a woeful SA team but England couldn't beat them.......

Too early to write off Wales. Wales have always been the least likely to progress but still plenty of rugby before the RWC.

This loss might help Wales as it forces them to rethink their strategy and gameplan.

Let's not gloat too early.....

Jimpy wrote:

gregortree wrote:I'm an England fan.
Just get that out there.

I have had lots of fretful moments thinking about our RWC group since it was announced.
Some of the fog may have cleared on a Friday Cardiff night, along with the showsmoke, the booing, the Hwyl, and the fuzzy heads.

Harsh, but one of these three greats has to go out of the RWC early, such is the luck of the seedings.
But which one will fail to make it  ?

I knew you were on a wind-up when you'd classed Wales as a 'great'.....

Ri

Not a WUM. All 3 are in the IRB top 6 so a tough group, the toughest.
My point, which could be better made is that teams below IRB no 6 will go through and one top 6 seed from this group is certain to fail.
Ok this is partly the randomness of the seeding draw, but genuinely I'll feel sympathy for whichever team stumbles out so early.

Nonetheless they broke the hoodoo. Australia might get a shock come the Autumn. And the who beat who beat who thing doesn't work too well in rugby - we found it very hard to beat the Irish for a few years after the Croke stuffing but we beat the Aussies who beat the Welsh who beat the Irish....

My point is we are too far out for serious predictions - imo. All I can say at this point is that was the most encouraging England game I've watched in a couple of years.

thinking about this group already makes me feel nauseous

have tix for eng v aus. am going to be a complete wreck until its over.

Where is the Wales vs Aus game being played?

If at the MS, I hate to say it but I think and hope that Wales will progress.

I make a point of always supporting a UK team (or Ireland) against non-UK opposition, but Wales and SOME of their supporters stretch my unionist patriotism to the full.

[/quote]

Not a WUM. All 3 are in the IRB top 6 so a tough group, the toughest.
My point, which could be better made is that teams below IRB no 6 will go through and one top 6 seed from this group is certain to fail.
Ok this is partly the randomness of the seeding draw, but genuinely I'll feel sympathy for whichever team stumbles out so early.


[/quote]

Of course what makes this a joke it they weren't all top 6 at the time of the draw and the seeding wasn't random, it was a draw made in 2012, nearly 3 years before the tournament when at the time Wales were 9th in the world and England were 5th.

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Where is the Wales vs Aus game being played?

If at the MS, I hate to say it but I think and hope that Wales will progress.

I make a point of always supporting a UK team (or Ireland) against non-UK opposition, but Wales and SOME of their supporters stretch my unionist patriotism to the full.

twickenham

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Where is the Wales vs Aus game being played?

If at the MS, I hate to say it but I think and hope that Wales will progress.

I make a point of always supporting a UK team (or Ireland) against non-UK opposition, but Wales and SOME of their supporters stretch my unionist patriotism to the full.

Twickers. Not that we should have ANY games at the MS in my opinion, but do you really think they'd give us a home game for a potentially pool deciding fixture like that?! No chance.

I have said all along that I think the 3 of us will all beat each other in the group stage and even after the weekends result I still think the same.

So the other group games take on a lot more meaning

Wales are sooooooooooooo predicatble at the moment. As are England but they are much more effective at what they do. Based on the last WC I wouldnt be surprised if Wales raise their game and knock England out. That said, as of right now Wales are favourites to drop out.

[quote="GunsGerms"]Wales are sooooooooooooo predicatble at the moment. At the moment? We have always been predictable its just in the past it worked in the most but now it's simply not working and something has to change.

It will depend o9n WHO is in the Wales squad come the RWC. If it is the same team as of last friday. Then they (Wales) could well go out early.

majesticimperialman wrote:It will depend o9n WHO is in the Wales squad come the RWC. If it is the same team as of last friday. Then they (Wales) could well go out early.

maj,

Any of the 3 could well go out early no matter who is in the squad but lets be honest most of us (Welsh) know the majority of our squad. There won't be many changes maybe a few but in the main it will be the same old faces and unfortunately in the main those are the best we have to choose from.

Its the style that needs tinkering

beshocked wrote:Jimpy

Might be a woeful SA team but England couldn't beat them.......

Too early to write off Wales. Wales have always been the least likely to progress but still plenty of rugby before the RWC.

This loss might help Wales as it forces them to rethink their strategy and gameplan.

Let's not gloat too early.....

It wasn't so much a woeful SA team, rather that they played woefully.

The same England side that lost to them, would likely have beaten them the day Wales did.... Anyway, as has been pointed out, the who beat who beat who thing doesn't usually work in rugby - except in this particular case, it will....

Not a WUM. All 3 are in the IRB top 6 so a tough group, the toughest.
My point, which could be better made is that teams below IRB no 6 will go through and one top 6 seed from this group is certain to fail.
Ok this is partly the randomness of the seeding draw, but genuinely I'll feel sympathy for whichever team stumbles out so early.


[/quote]

Of course what makes this a joke it they weren't all top 6 at the time of the draw and the seeding wasn't random, it was a draw made in 2012, nearly 3 years before the tournament when at the time Wales were 9th in the world and England were 5th.[/quote]

Precisely - it is just me or is it daft to select the groups that far out? I can't work out why it needs to be that far in advance so I'd be delighted if someone could explain it ...

Thank you peeps....you make my point. 3 yr old random bad luck..... but there it is.

Heaf wrote:Not a WUM. All 3 are in the IRB top 6 so a tough group, the toughest.
My point, which could be better made is that teams below IRB no 6 will go through and one top 6 seed from this group is certain to fail.
Ok this is partly the randomness of the seeding draw, but genuinely I'll feel sympathy for whichever team stumbles out so early.

Of course what makes this a joke it they weren't all top 6 at the time of the draw and the seeding wasn't random, it was a draw made in 2012, nearly 3 years before the tournament when at the time Wales were 9th in the world and England were 5th.[/quote]

Precisely - it is just me or is it daft to select the groups that far out?  I can't work out why it needs to be that far in advance so I'd be delighted if someone could explain it ...[/quote]
The seeding were done far to early. Having said that the dates were known and if Wales go out they only have themselves to blame. They were not the ninth best team at the time. The put out weakened teams and lost to lowly ranked countries.

Say that all teams beat Fiji , Wales only need to beat Australia or England to go through with better points margin of course. It's not impossible .

this year there are losing and winning bonus points available in pool matches. great innovation for a group like this one. means there is a real reward to attacking, because even if you lose, if you get a couple of losing bonus points (7 point margin of loss, and 4 tries) that can make the difference if each team beats each other once out of the big 3.

quinsforever wrote:this year there are losing and winning bonus points available in pool matches. great innovation for a group like this one. means there is a real reward to attacking, because even if you lose, if you get a couple of losing bonus points (7 point margin of loss, and 4 tries) that can make the difference if each team beats each other once out of the big 3.

Winning a pool on points difference??

Gatland seemed to be the only candidate for the lions in 2017 a year back but now if he fails to get Wales out of the pools in rwc2015 you'd seriously have to question his suitability for the Lions let alone Wales.

As Wales lost their scrum dominance their game which required front foot ball has disintegrated and they have no plan B.

Can't play that game vs. NZ and I don't think Gatland has another plan... or thinks the NH players are capable of playing such.

Got to be versatile and I think Wales need to alter their set up a little if they want to progress this year and the next.

At the moment I can't see how Wales can beat England at Twickenham... they had their full team out vs. a very patched up England side. AUS too I think will be too smart for them. They have to have something up their sleeve...can't just say... oh it was Webb's kicks fault.... you can't expect zero mistakes to win, you'd pick up a win only once every 20-30 games that way.

Ummm. He was the only candidate a year back?! Really??? I think you'll find that no-one wanted him to be the next lions coach. Perhpas some welsh fans said he deserved it, but on here no one from other nations said he should be in. Plenty of other candidates were offered, but not Gatland.

I think Gatland was a clear front runner for 2017 a year ago.

I am really worried about the pool - do not believe we will lose to both Wales and Aus - but could see us losing one. Thing I hold on to though is Wales poor record in qualifying from pools in NH RWCs

I can see any one of the three not going through and none would surprise me.

Only thing I'd say about England right now is that they seem to be steaming through everything this year...steaming through League, steaming through Europe and seemingly ready to steam through the 6N too.

That's a lot of steam and I guess you could argue that it's important to get a rhythm going and stick with it right to the end - the final of a WC.

But it's also highly energetic stuff that might begin to see players fall off the 'form' ladder just when they should be stoking the fires to get onto the plateau a few weeks to a month before the WC itself.

Other sides seem to be cruising a bit more - both at International level and back to club level for individual players.  There might be lack of 'form' reasons for some of that but it might also be planned pacing to stall the peak form levels until further down the line this year.

I know England have a pretty envious cushion of players they can call back into the squad but it'll be interesting to see how form and fitness moves through the rest of this spring and into summer for the sides considered in contention.

I think Gats has just learnt his biggest lesson and knows finally (after everyone telling him for ages) that things need to change. Wales have a very good side cand just need better direction.

Its natural or English fans to starts rubbing it in with a win like that and posts like these but history shows that England are amongst the elite when it comes to a thudding thump from reality- 2012 ABs to 30-3 vs Wales within weeks, not realising the last two 6N when they thought they had it in the bag, 2003 to 2004 and later...the list goes on.

Injuries accepted, but England have flatlined since 2012 so winning this years 6N may not be the best thing for them, as (once again), they'll start believing their own press.

RWC pool stages can be attritional - squads will need to be rotated.

Putting out a second string against Uruguay probably wouldn't be too much of a gamble, but doing so against a Fijian first string would be very risky (17-13 at the MS in November confirms that). As pointed out above, bonus points could be decisive.

Recovery periods between games can also be challenging and will inform the level of squad rotation.

Game dates and opponents:

England
18 Sept - Fiji
26 Sept - Wales
3 Oct - Australia
10 Oct - Uruguay

Wales
20 Sept - Uruguay
26 September - England
1 Oct - Fiji
10 Oct - Australia

Australia
23 Sept - Fiji
27 Sept - Uruguay
3 Oct - England
10 Oct - Wales

Fiji
18 Sept - England
23 Sept - Australia
1 Oct - Wales
6 Oct Uruguay

Not sure which teams are favoured by those schedules, but note that Fiji play England then Australia with only 4 clear days recovery, then a decent rest before Wales.

Dubbelyew L Overate wrote:RWC pool stages can be attritional - squads will need to be rotated.

Not sure which teams are favoured by those schedules, but note that Fiji play England then Australia with only 4 clear days recovery, then a decent rest before Wales.

Yes this was definitely an issue in 2011. The bigger sides tended to get the best schedules, largely to maximse ticket sales. One side I think played 3 matches in 10 days.

Dubble,

Teams could get away with putting out a 2nd string against Uruguay and Fiji but as the group could possibly be decided by points diff/tries scored etc then teams would need to wrack up the points in those games

The first time I heard the expression Group of Death was in 2011 when Wales was put together with SA, Fiji and Samoa. We finished 8-9 to SA a game plenty of Boks said to me we should have won, but for a Hook conversion effort that was so high above the posts it was deemed out. Fiji were shown the door with a 66-0 thumping and Samoa was a narrow win. Can't remember the score against our minnow Namibia but it was 80-odd. We finished top scorers in the tournament after a 4th place 6N. So Group of Death? Bring it on! Just saying.

I'm not sure that any team should be confident of a bonus point win against Fiji, let alone a second string against their first string.

However.....

Fiji as a rugby union (and as a country) are in a bit of disarray - will they be able to afford the pre-tournament squad training, for example? They have weaknesses in some positions, but outstanding strength in others - Nemani Nadolo is arguably the best centre currently playing the game, Josh Matavesi isn't the best 10 at the Ospreys.

If they can collect together all their best players, and if they're well motivated, fit and fully trained, they'll give pretty much any team a competitive game. Big "ifs", though.

Well done OP you figured out that one of these three teams will not go through and are now speculating on who that will be 9 months before the competition. What a simply enthralling thread.

This is only a repeat though of other threads earlier in the year (or I actually mean last year!) - I've heard the discussion before Gwlad, and that was closer to 12 months out.

It was a really stupid idea to seed the teams so early after the last world cup (or was it before the last world cup?).  Anyone of Wales, England, or Australia could fail to progress, and even Fiji are not without hope.  On the day a match could be decided by strange things, for example a red card.

Gwlad wrote:Well done OP you figured out that one of these three teams will not go through and are now speculating on who that will be 9 months before the competition. What a simply enthralling thread.

Thank you for your interest G.