Aviva Premiership Final

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Wasps v Sale Sharks
Location - Twickenham
Light Cloud, 14 degrees, 14mph winds.

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Wasps
Manager: Ozzy3213  
                 

01. Joe Marler	09. Aaron Smith
02. Bismarck du Plessis	10. Aaron Cruden
03. David Wilson
04. Matt Symons	11. Bryan Habana
05. Alun-Wyn Jones ©	12. Ma'a Nonu
06. Jerome Kaino	13. Henry Slade
07. Steffon Armitage	14. Tim Nanai-Williams
08. Duane Vermeulen	15. Anthony Watson

16. Tom Youngs 17. Scott Sio 18. Ben Alexander 19. Sebastien Vahaamahina 20. Marcell Coetzee 21. Ben Youngs 22. Samu Kerevi 23. Marland Yarde

Basic Game Plan
In good conditions we will be looking to play a possession based, fast offloading game, keeping the ball alive moving the Quins defence around. When deep in our half we won't take chances with offloading, but will make ground carrying close to the ruck and recycling quickly, or using the boots of Cruden, Slade and Watson to take us up the field.

In defence, as always we will be running a blitz defence.  Our focus will be on the gainline collisions and driving back in the tackle.  Line speed and no dog-legs will be key components for us.  Smith will sweep in behind the defensive line to counter any chips/grubbers.

Specifics

• Lineout.  Symons will call, as he does for the Chiefs in Super Rugby.  In decent conditions we will mix it up on our ball, utilising Symons, Jones, Kaino and Vermeulen as receivers, whilst also at times shortening the line and using our back row forwards as crash ball options off first phase.  Defensively we will look to compete for the ball and disrupt wherever possible, making any ball secured by Sale as scrappy as we can.
  
• Scrum.  Hit channel one ball and get it out the back and into open play quickly, looking to maximise the space available with the opposition forwards packed down.  On there ball, 8 man shove and look to drive them off as their hooker lifts his foot to hook the ball.  Wilson to stay tight and straight, aware that Ayerza is clever angling in and forcing the TH to twist.  Flanker on that side to stay bound and keep Wilson straight.
  
• Breakdown.  When we carry into contact, if we are taken to ground, we will flood the breakdown.  In defence, if we have made a passive tackle and the carrier has momentum we will not overcommit, but will maintain a strong defensive line.  If we win the collision and knock the carrier back we will look to get the second man in hard over the ball to turn it over.  Key for us is being selective.
  
• Attacking Play.  We will be looking to play a Super Rugby type offloading game, with the ball shifted on to the support runner just prior to the point of the tackle with the defender already committed.  We want to keep the ball alive as much as possible.  We will look to get big carriers down the 12 channel and use Watson and Nanai-Williams in particular trying to isolate front 5 forwards in the defensive line and use their pace, power and footwork to go past them and get us on the front foot.  If the ball is slow and Sale are blitzing we will also utilise the pick and go, with the aim of keeping the blitz honest and forcing them slowly onto the back foot before going wider out.  Smith to also look to snipe around the fringes and keep us going forwards all the time.  
  
• Tactical Kicking.  If we kick, we will look to kick deep for the corners and get the Sale back three on the turn, with a strong kick chase to isolate them.
  

Key Points

• World Class Spine  In those key jerseys, 2,8,9,10 we have world class players who are all arguably the best in their position in the world.  In big games, when things get tight, those guys can be the difference between winning and losing.
  
• Routine  We have changed nothing for this final, bar minor opposition specific tweaks.  This is our usual game plan, we are well drilled and everyone is comfortable with their role.  In pressure situations, this can be key.
  
• Impact Bench  7 full internationals plus Kerevi.  All can have a huge impact on this game.
  
• Experience  The bulk of this team played in last years final and won.  It is our 3rd final of the season.  We know how to handle these big pressure games.  This is Sale's first time at this stage, and it is true that in big finals, teams very rarely win on the first time they get there.
  
• Form Issues  Bismarck and Wilson in particular have been getting hammered for form, and you can obviously rate how you see fit, but I want to point out that Bismarck, despite starting slowly has picked up in recent weeks.  Wilson has been back playing for a month now in real life and coped well enough with Tigers international front row last week, which included his direct opponent in this game, Marcos Ayerza.
  

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 Sale Sharks
Manager – SJE

01. Marcos Ayerza	09. Danny Care
02. Benjamin Kayser	10. Johnny Sexton
03. Davit Zirakishvilli
04. Brodie Retalick	11. Simon Zebo
05. Dave Attwood	12. Kyle Eastmond
06. Peter O'Mahony	13. Jared Payne
07. Sam Cane	14. Semesa Rokoduguni
08. Louis Picamoles	15. Nick Abendanon

:-
16. Jack McGrath 17. David Paice 18. Martin Moore 19. Iain Henderson 20. Matt Garvey 21. Calum Braley 22. Beauden Barrett 23. Willie Le Roux

We will play an expansive, high intensity offloading game looking to create space and break the defensive line. Mobility and handling is key to our approach.

Key Points

- Target Slade on defence. Look to pressure Slade with Payne running at him with Sexton/Eastmond/Bendy coming around the back door. Challenge his defensive decision making at 13 with multiple running options.     

- Freshness. Our 1st XV have had two rest periods in recent times while the Wasps 1st team have had to play every week. Cruden in particular has had a heavy work load with this his 11th straight start in a row including three cup finals and two semi finals. We are mentally and physically fresher. 

Tactics

- Commit the defence. Sexton will play flat on the gain line to pull in defenders before releasing runners. He will also look to work the wrap around off midfield runners and create overlaps and space outside. Care will look for opportunities to snipe around the base always committing defenders.

- Change the point of attack. Numerous play makers across the back line comfortable at coming in at first receiver allow us to change the point of attack and leave the opposition guessing.

- Back three always involved. Wingers to come in off their wings looking for the inside ball or offload. Bendy to join the line from fullback looking for mismatches and to create overlaps.

- Attack from the scrum. Strong technical front row backed up by a powerful second row will look to build a platform for Pickles, Care & Sexton. An area we will look to target if winning.

- Mix it up at the lineout. Five genuine jumpers gives us a strong attacking platform. Look to use both the rolling maul and ball off the top to keep the defence guessing.

- Straight line blitz defence. Focused on winning the gain line collisions and driving the ball carrier back. Line speed is crucial. Care will sweep behind the line to cover chips and grubbers.

- Cover the midfield. Cane has been instructed to defend the 12 channel with Eastmond, specifically looking to stop offloads and get over the ball first at the breakdown preventing any Wasps momentum.

- Target the breakdown. Committed to the breakdown with Zirka, Retalick, POM & Cane fetching for the ball, supported by the rest of the side. We will always look to turn the ball over.

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Wasps
Manager: Ozzy3213  
                 

01. Joe Marler	09. Aaron Smith
02. Bismarck du Plessis	10. Aaron Cruden
03. David Wilson
04. Matt Symons	11. Bryan Habana
05. Alun-Wyn Jones ©	12. Ma'a Nonu
06. Jerome Kaino	13. Henry Slade
07. Steffon Armitage	14. Tim Nanai-Williams
08. Duane Vermeulen	15. Anthony Watson

16. Tom Youngs 17. Scott Sio 18. Ben Alexander 19. Sebastien Vahaamahina 20. Marcell Coetzee 21. Ben Youngs 22. Samu Kerevi 23. Marland Yarde

Basic Game Plan
In good conditions we will be looking to play a possession based, fast offloading game, keeping the ball alive moving the Quins defence around. When deep in our half we won't take chances with offloading, but will make ground carrying close to the ruck and recycling quickly, or using the boots of Cruden, Slade and Watson to take us up the field.

In defence, as always we will be running a blitz defence.  Our focus will be on the gainline collisions and driving back in the tackle.  Line speed and no dog-legs will be key components for us.  Smith will sweep in behind the defensive line to counter any chips/grubbers.

Specifics

• Lineout.  Symons will call, as he does for the Chiefs in Super Rugby.  In decent conditions we will mix it up on our ball, utilising Symons, Jones, Kaino and Vermeulen as receivers, whilst also at times shortening the line and using our back row forwards as crash ball options off first phase.  Defensively we will look to compete for the ball and disrupt wherever possible, making any ball secured by Sale as scrappy as we can.
  
• Scrum.  Hit channel one ball and get it out the back and into open play quickly, looking to maximise the space available with the opposition forwards packed down.  On there ball, 8 man shove and look to drive them off as their hooker lifts his foot to hook the ball.  Wilson to stay tight and straight, aware that Ayerza is clever angling in and forcing the TH to twist.  Flanker on that side to stay bound and keep Wilson straight.
  
• Breakdown.  When we carry into contact, if we are taken to ground, we will flood the breakdown.  In defence, if we have made a passive tackle and the carrier has momentum we will not overcommit, but will maintain a strong defensive line.  If we win the collision and knock the carrier back we will look to get the second man in hard over the ball to turn it over.  Key for us is being selective.
  
• Attacking Play.  We will be looking to play a Super Rugby type offloading game, with the ball shifted on to the support runner just prior to the point of the tackle with the defender already committed.  We want to keep the ball alive as much as possible.  We will look to get big carriers down the 12 channel and use Watson and Nanai-Williams in particular trying to isolate front 5 forwards in the defensive line and use their pace, power and footwork to go past them and get us on the front foot.  If the ball is slow and Sale are blitzing we will also utilise the pick and go, with the aim of keeping the blitz honest and forcing them slowly onto the back foot before going wider out.  Smith to also look to snipe around the fringes and keep us going forwards all the time.  
  
• Tactical Kicking.  If we kick, we will look to kick deep for the corners and get the Sale back three on the turn, with a strong kick chase to isolate them.
  

Key Points

• World Class Spine  In those key jerseys, 2,8,9,10 we have world class players who are all arguably the best in their position in the world.  In big games, when things get tight, those guys can be the difference between winning and losing.
  
• Routine  We have changed nothing for this final, bar minor opposition specific tweaks.  This is our usual game plan, we are well drilled and everyone is comfortable with their role.  In pressure situations, this can be key.
  
• Impact Bench  7 full internationals plus Kerevi.  All can have a huge impact on this game.
  
• Experience  The bulk of this team played in last years final and won.  It is our 3rd final of the season.  We know how to handle these big pressure games.  This is Sale's first time at this stage, and it is true that in big finals, teams very rarely win on the first time they get there.
  
• Form Issues  Bismarck and Wilson in particular have been getting hammered for form, and you can obviously rate how you see fit, but I want to point out that Bismarck, despite starting slowly has picked up in recent weeks.  Wilson has been back playing for a month now in real life and coped well enough with Tigers international front row last week, which included his direct opponent in this game, Marcos Ayerza.
  

Best of luck SJE buddy, should be a cracker.

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My side will be in tomorrow Pete waiting on news re Skeltons appeal

No worries mate. I've a long day at work tomorrow so not sure if I'd be on so thought I'd just get mine in early.

Sale Sharks
Manager – SJE

01. Marcos Ayerza	09. Danny Care
02. Benjamin Kayser	10. Johnny Sexton
03. Davit Zirakishvilli
04. Brodie Retalick	11. Simon Zebo
05. Dave Attwood	12. Kyle Eastmond
06. Peter O'Mahony	13. Jared Payne
07. Sam Cane	14. Semesa Rokoduguni
08. Louis Picamoles	15. Nick Abendanon

:-
16. Jack McGrath 17. David Paice 18. Martin Moore 19. Iain Henderson 20. Matt Garvey 21. Calum Braley 22. Beauden Barrett 23. Willie Le Roux

We will play an expansive, high intensity offloading game looking to create space and break the defensive line. Mobility and handling is key to our approach.

Key Points

- Target Slade on defence. Look to pressure Slade with Payne running at him with Sexton/Eastmond/Bendy coming around the back door. Challenge his defensive decision making at 13 with multiple running options.     

- Freshness. Our 1st XV have had two rest periods in recent times while the Wasps 1st team have had to play every week. Cruden in particular has had a heavy work load with this his 11th straight start in a row including three cup finals and two semi finals. We are mentally and physically fresher. 

Tactics

- Commit the defence. Sexton will play flat on the gain line to pull in defenders before releasing runners. He will also look to work the wrap around off midfield runners and create overlaps and space outside. Care will look for opportunities to snipe around the base always committing defenders.

- Change the point of attack. Numerous play makers across the back line comfortable at coming in at first receiver allow us to change the point of attack and leave the opposition guessing.

- Back three always involved. Wingers to come in off their wings looking for the inside ball or offload. Bendy to join the line from fullback looking for mismatches and to create overlaps.

- Attack from the scrum. Strong technical front row backed up by a powerful second row will look to build a platform for Pickles, Care & Sexton. An area we will look to target if winning.

- Mix it up at the lineout. Five genuine jumpers gives us a strong attacking platform. Look to use both the rolling maul and ball off the top to keep the defence guessing.

- Straight line blitz defence. Focused on winning the gain line collisions and driving the ball carrier back. Line speed is crucial. Care will sweep behind the line to cover chips and grubbers.

- Cover the midfield. Cane has been instructed to defend the 12 channel with Eastmond, specifically looking to stop offloads and get over the ball first at the breakdown preventing any Wasps momentum.

- Target the breakdown. Committed to the breakdown with Zirka, Retalick, POM & Cane fetching for the ball, supported by the rest of the side. We will always look to turn the ball over.

SJE

Skelton got a 2 week ban

Its on appeal Bam hes flown out with the Tahs for this weekends game so chancing my arm

Good luck lads, best 2 teams in the league this year, it's going to be tough to split you.

Tactics in, best of luck SJE.

PREDICTIONS OPEN

Best of luck Pete

Almost 24 hours and no predictions

Wasps 27-23 Sale

Tough match up but in key areas wasps have it.
I had sale losing by a bit last week and I do this week also.

Front row wasps- Wilson and BDP win this with Zira giving Marler issues.

Second row to sale by a bit which neutralises scrum and gives them power at breakdown. Rettalick been average or injured but is a class act

Backrow interesting cane a different league
To Armitage and Kaino better than Pom. Vermaulen a galaxy apart from pickles who is out of his depth at this level. Wasps better balance and carrying.

Half backs one a piece. Would argue care not worth playing at moment as he is that bad. Smith best in world.

Sexton a different planet to
Cruden which ties half backs.

After that wasps take it. Sale backs their weakness at top level and can't see them defending well. They will score tries but concede lots.

For me eastmond Payne a poor partnership at this level

Wasps 27 - 26 Sale
Two really good teams, both have a few form issues but balances itself overall. The Sale setpiece is very strong, but prefer the key players for Wasps, with the exception of Sexton.

The breakdown battle will be very close, but prefer Cane to Armitage so Sale will get some nice attacking ball, but I just can't see where Sale will get the momentum to keep getting over the gainline in the backs, whilst Nonu is in cracking form and Cruden putting him into space could cause havoc.

The reason the scoreline is v close is that Sexton will take all his kicking chances, but I'm not sure Cruden will - I think Sale could have got a bit more joy in using the kick chase game, as Zebo a great chaser and I thought that approach could work against Wasps.

SJE does make the good point on fitness, which is another reason the game will get very close, but players pick themselves up for finals and Wasps just about get the win.

Wasps 25-26 Sale

Sale would get a scrum advantage with Wilson lacking form for Wasps and the Sale unit strong. A bit more in the engine room and line out for Sale too with both locks stronger. Great backrow battle with 6 close, 7 to Sale and 8 to Wasps. Overall a pack advantage to Sale.

Big fan of both half back units but think Sale just have the edge with the cleaner ball. Payne a better option than Slade but Nonu stronger than Eastmond. Wasps as a unit probably a bit stronger but both centre partnerships have their faults and can be targeted. Not much in the back 3's, Watson could be targeted under the high ball.

Both sides have strong tactics and suit the line ups as you'd expect in a final. Sale's pack (esp front 5) and them being a touch fresher will see them sneak a cracker.

Great final.

What a match, have written out on paper my thoughts so trying to put form to it now!

Front row I can see wasps getting a slight edge form wise but 2nd rows are pretty even so there wont be a huge advantage. Back row both balanced well but think cane will edge Armitage here. Wasps gain the 9-10 advantage with smith better than care but half backs evens. Centres hard to separate with different styles and think they will nullify each other. This is the same with the back 3 who will both be dangerous on the counter attack. Bench evens for impact.

Looking at the tactics I feel wasps have set up well for the scrum but wont get massively quick ball with sale targetting the breakdown well. Sexton standing flat will put pressure on wasps but smith and cruden can create something out of nothing which, even with bendy's form and angles will be enough.

Its taken me to write this out 3 times to make a decision and I feel that, even though they wont get full clean ball, the wasps' backline will hold out for an energy sapping victory. In real life I reckon this would go to extra time but I don't feel it's fair to score a draw.

Wasps 28-26 Sale

Wasps 29-27 Sale
Front five wise I think Sale have the advantage. Prefer the back row of Wasps in general but think Sale can get some joy at the breakdown. Half backs one each but the combo gives it to Wasps. Outside backs goes to Wasps and I think they have a bit more coming off the bench

Wasps 26 - 25 Sale

Not much in the front rows for me two solid units. One apiece in the second rows with retallick and awj the standouts. I give wasps the slight edge in the back rows but overall the packs are very well matched. For me the hb combos are the two best in the league - neither dominates the other. I prefer wasps at centre whilst the back threes are pretty even. Really tough to call - sexton key for sale but 1-15 I think wasps edge the quality and I give them the smallest of victories.

Wasps 25 - 26 Sale

Scrum pretty even. Wilson's lack of form see's him struggle against Ayerza whilst I expect Marler to get the upper hand over Zirakishvili. BDP not been in great nick and see his battle as even with Kayser. I prefer the Sale lock combo as I see Symons as a weakness in this area. Think Wasps take the back row 2-1 but I think Sale will have a bit more at the breakdown as a pack. Up front I think each side have a similar level of go forward up front and don't see a huge advantage on the gain line or indeed at the line out.

Half backs one a piece as I prefer Smith and Sexton but the Wasps pair is stronger. I don't think Eastmond and Payne will work as a pairing but I think Sale will be able to exploit Slade at outside centre. I think Sale have the stronger back three and have a very exciting runners and Roko has been in great form in recent weeks when I've seen him.

Tactically both sides are set up well. I like that both sides are looking to play rugby. I think Aaron Cruden has played to much rugby and this affects how he can affect the game and without Nonu and Slade in the centre who can both create then this would really hurt Wasps. I think Sale lack some real go forward in the backs and this hinders their attempts to get across the gain line and they are very much relying on footwork and pace to get through Wasps, which is not something that has a lot of success. I think the extra mobilty I see in the Sale pack, especially the lock pairing helps Sale in what I think will be a very open game for a final. I would probably call a draw but don't want to in a final, and I'm giving this one to Sale as they have Barrett and WLR to come and and make the telling impact late on.

Two excellent sides.

Just Fluxy, Bam and CJ to go for the full house here.

Can people also look at the euro playoff please 

I'll be predicting both later today

Wasps 30 - 29 Sale

Scrum- close fought battle, but I think Sale can do more damage on their own ball with maybe the best from row in the league 
Lineout- incredibly tight, can't see either side really disrupting the opposition ball too much 
Breakdown- much like Ozzy's last match, Steff and BDP will win a fair number of turnovers but I think Sale get better general ball speed at the breakdown, an interesting complexion for the match
HBs- I love the Sale combo but on form the Wasps one wins it and it does attack and control so so well.
Attack- 2 brilliant back lines, big fan of the Wasp centres in particular but hard to separate, so it goes on tactics, which are both good but I think Wasps edge on detail and don't think Slade, with Nonu inside him, is a liability in defence
Defence- nothing in it
Subs- edge to Sale, great impact 

Was going to say a narrow win to Wasps, but the bench I think can even it up for Sale, however in a tight game I think having an in form HB pairing just just takes it for Wasps

A very close battle up front between the front fives with neither really budging an inch. Sale do get a slight gain up front in the scrum as the game wears on with Wilson being putting under pressure by Ayerza. Around the park the Wasps back row will wreak havoc with their front row adding good mobility around the park. Armitage/Cane battle is an intriguing one but with the efforts of BdP, Kaino, and Vermeulen around the park, Cane and POM are flooded at the breakdown. But that is not to say Sharks can secure their own ball, but there is the odd opportunity where there is limited numbers at the ruck and a turnover in Wasps favour is accrued.
The spine of the wasps midfield will attempt to control the pace of the game, ebbing and flowing when they deem it to be necessary. The Care/Sexton partnership is a tired and tested one for Sharks will keep the Wasps defence honest with Care's threat at the fringes and Sexton also a danger with the wrap around. Slade and Eastmond both doing a similar job for both sides, creating opportunities for the runners around them, with Eastmond creating a little bit himself with his acceleration and offload. Forcing the Sharks back three to turn will cause them some trouble as they want to counter attack any ball that comes to them, and there will be the odd moment where the kick will come short and then turn on the pace.
Both benches are superfluous, but there is just a little more magic and impact from the Sharks bench and with the game wearing on and being ultra close and coming down to fine margins, you can see the likes of Sharks front five cover upping the momentum and their back subs creating a chance for Sale to stake their claim to the AP Title.

Wasps 29 - 30 Sale Sharks

Just Bam to go for the full house

Be in tonight

Typed out a full predo then managed to click report on a post above and it deleted!

Think the teams are very evenly matched on paper and deserving finalists.

Sale have the edge at the scrum for me, no issue with form but Ayerza is a class act and has that effect on most scrums. Lineout very even,

Round the park, Sale's second row has a bit more power than Wasps, but other than that they're very evenly matched packs.

I think Wasps will slightly edge the breakdown, and with Cane looking to help Eastmond defend the 12 channel I think they'll have a good supply of quick ball to attack with. Turnover wise will likely be pretty close.

The ABs half back partnership edges Sexton and Care, while I think the outside backs are close, but slightly prefer Wasps.

Both sides stick to their own gameplan, and there are no real tactical targeting' of opposition players which makes it tough to split them tactically.

The benches also very even, and tough to split.

The breakdown and half backs are usually my main area for deciding who wins a game, and as I've given both to Wasps, they take this one for me, by the narrowest of margins

Wasps 31-30 Sale

Congrats mate!

Congratulations Pete, unlucky Johnny.

Hardest game to predo all season.

Cheers lads.

I think most of us had it by a point or 2, I'd have went for a draw if not a final.

One of the best games to predict on to be honest. Will be much closer next season!

Yeah, there was very little in it. Will be even tougher to win it again next year as well I reckon.

Well done Pete, how many titles is that now you've won?

Unlucky SJE, was very close and hard to predict a winner.

Congrats Pete, well deserved

I think you've overtook me now Pete with 3 titles? Matched my 2 in a row too you bugger.

You're are now the best manager in the history of the game....just the European Cup now

Congrats Pete

Cheers SJE, and everyone else. Heino/Champions Cup still eludes me. Need to win that before I can retire!

Swap you one European Cup for a League title?

I'll stick with what I have Chris.  Genuinely thought you were going to walk the league at one point this year.  6 Nations killed you mate.

Got quite a few injuries this year to guys like Launchbury, Tuilagi, Burger, Lawes, Fofana and Pocock and lost all the momentum for when Saints normally finish strongly. Hopefully next season the new physio team should kick in...

Well done Pete and SJE. Amazing how things change throughout a season. Form changes, imjuries and suspensions make a huge difference.

SJE unlucky Skelton and Kvesic banned and a few others dropped off form wide like care. At a different point of the season he would have taken the win

Congrats Pete and unlucky sje

Well done Ozzy, unlucky SJE it was very close