Australia - dark horse for the world cup?

by Majestic83 Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:24 pm

Looking ahead to the world cup I think New Zealand quite rightly will hold the favourites tag. There are a number of teams hot on their heels like England, Ireland, South Africa.
I haven't noticed much chat about the chances of Australia for this world cup. They have under performed over the last few years having issues around player discipline, Robbie Deans, Ewan McKenzie and a host of players being injured.
I think they could be dark horses for this world cup, they often raise their game coming into it and the players they have had long term injured are all back to fitness.

The Waratahs and Brumbies have performed very well in Super rugby and the Rebels are also doing well this season with some good young players putting their hands up.
The core of the squad will probably come from the Waratahs and Brumbies with a few from the other 3 teams.

They are no where near the finished article but think if they can get their strongest line up out in the big games then I can see them going very far in this tournament.

Looking at the 31 man squad they might pick I think it will be along the lines of this.
props
Benn Robinson
Ben Alexander
Sekope Kepu
James Slipper
Greg Holmes

Hookers
Stephen Moore
Tatafu Polota-Nau
Nathan Charles

Locks
Will Skelton
Rob Simmons
Luke Jones
Scott Fardy

Back Row
David Pocock
Michael Hooper
Sean McMahon
Scott Higginbotham
Wycliff Palu

Scrum Halfs
Will Genia
Nick White
Nick Phipps

Fly half
Bernard Foley
Quade Cooper

Centres
Matt Giteau
Kurtley Beale
Tevita Kuidrani
Adam Ashley-Cooper

Wings/Full Backs
Nick Cummins
Henry Speight
Drew Mitchell
Israel Folau
James O'Connor

by **rodders** Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:32 pm

Totally agree, definitely dark horses and have the talent and coach to really challenge if they can win the group.

by WELL-PAST-IT Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:33 pm

I would never call the Aussies "dark horses", their record is too good for that. Having had such a quiet time recentlly the may come in the middle shades of grey, but not the darker side.

by CraigS1874 Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:41 pm

Interesting to see the bookies do not fancy them at 10/1, Australia always have skilful outside backs but sometimes lack go forward.
Purely based on super 15 form, I would pick kerevi in the centres but not sure who I would leave out, probably AAC.
The waratahs vs the reds this weekend will be massive in terms of selection and Do they pick hooper and pocock in the same side or are they too lightweight?

by Majestic83 Thu Jun 11, 2015 3:54 pm

Agreed Australia always have very good backs but their forwards are often a bit soft and lightweight. They seem to have found a few mongrels now though who are doing the dirty work that has been missing from the Australia side for a few years.

Tough call in the back row especially the battle between Hooper and Pocock. Both fairly different opensides. Potentially they could both play and wouldn't be too lightweight. Think Pocock is weighing in about 115kg this season. Neither are the tallest but both certainly have the bulk.
Playing both of them on the flank would be harsh on Sean McMahon who has been in outstanding form for the Rebels playing at blindside.
Personally I'd choose Pocock at openside, with McMahon at blindside.

by CraigS1874 Thu Jun 11, 2015 4:06 pm

Majestic83 wrote:Agreed Australia always have very good backs but their forwards are often a bit soft and lightweight. They seem to have found a few mongrels now though who are doing the dirty work that has been missing from the Australia side for a few years.

Tough call in the back row especially the battle between Hooper and Pocock. Both fairly different opensides. Potentially they could both play and wouldn't be too lightweight. Think Pocock is weighing in about 115kg this season. Neither are the tallest but both certainly have the bulk.
Playing both of them on the flank would be harsh on Sean McMahon who has been in outstanding form for the Rebels playing at blindside.
Personally I'd choose Pocock at openside, with McMahon at blindside.

Always thought pocock was stocky but that is a fair weight, almost every position in the backline is up for debate apart folau so picking a captain is hard. I guess Moore is the favourite but who is vice ?

by asoreleftshoulder Thu Jun 11, 2015 5:05 pm

rodders wrote:Totally agree, definitely dark horses and have the talent and coach to really challenge if they can win the group.

The group they have is the reason I don't see them doing it.They will have to play 3* tough matches before they even make the quarter-final and I think they don't have the depth to deal with the mixture of fatigue and injuries this will bring.

*Fiji may or may not be a tough match

by funnyExiledScot Thu Jun 11, 2015 5:56 pm

Funnily enough I'm not convinced they will make it out of their group. Yes, there's a bit more dog in their forwards, but will they get enough front foot ball against a rested and conditoned Welsh or English pack? There's talent in abundance in the backline, but they face a mighty challenge from Wales and England.

All eyes on this Group - it's a cracker.

by The Great Aukster Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:04 pm

The odds are ridiculous having Ireland ahead of Australia who have never made the semi-finals. A dark horse catches people by surprise, but it would absolutely no surprise if Australia won their group or indeed the whole thing. Cheika will fuel up and have the golden digger humming in an Ashes year.

by Fanster Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:55 pm

I would disagree TGA, if Australia win that group I will be surprised, I think England are in the driving seat, and Wales and Australia will be the fight for 2nd place.

It's harsh to say Australia would be a dark horse because they are always capable of reaching the semi's/final, but if they win the competition I will be amazed.

I'm used to seeing the Australia of old who are more than capable of beating anyone, however a bit similar to France I look at their team and don't see the amount of World class players of old, the tight 5 is still a little soft, and the backrow won't be settled (Although Hooper and Pocock are world class). Half backs are as weak as I've ever seen an Australian combo, Genia isn't playing well, Cooper can be awfull, and White/Phipps/Foley aren't going to be match winners I feel.

Saying that there is so much talent throughout they should be ok to qualify through, I think their chances rapidly go up with knockout rugby.

Also with Irelands group, the way they and France are playing a semi final is a must for them, I think the odds reflect this.

by asoreleftshoulder Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:40 pm

The Great Aukster wrote:The odds are ridiculous having Ireland ahead of Australia who have never made the semi-finals. A dark horse catches people by surprise, but it would absolutely no surprise if Australia won their group or indeed the whole thing. Cheika will fuel up and have the golden digger humming in an Ashes year.

The odds take into account the relative difficulty of the draw to both sides.Ireland could reach the final before we have to play a side ranked lower than us.Australia are in a group with 2 teams ranked above them.Now the rankings aren't perfect but they are a decent guide to suggest that Oz are in a group with 2 teams that have the ability to beat them.

by The Saint Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:55 pm

Not without a scrum. Awesome backline though.

by Poorfour Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:09 pm

Cheika has been talking down Austrlia's chances, which makes me think they are considerably more dangerous.

However, I think England have enough in the pack to beat them at home, and no-one has yet won the RWC having lost a pool game.

by Icu Fri Jun 12, 2015 3:06 am

props
~~Benn Robinson~~ Paul Alo-Emile
Ben Alexander
Sekope Kepu
James Slipper
Greg Holmes

Hookers
Stephen Moore
Tatafu Polota-Nau
~~Nathan Charles~~ James Hanson / Tolu Latu

Locks
Will Skelton
Rob Simmons
~~Luke Jones~~ Coleman / Arnold
~~Scott Fardy~~ Lopeti Timani

Back Row
David Pocock
Michael Hooper
~~Sean McMahon~~ Scott Fardy
Scott Higginbotham
Wycliff Palu

Scrum Halfs
Will Genia
~~Nick White~~ Nic Stirzaker
Nick Phipps

Fly half
Bernard Foley
Quade Cooper or Christian L

Centres
~~Matt Giteau~~ Matt Toomua
~~Kurtley Beale~~ Samu Kerevi /Christian L
Tevita Kuidrani
Adam Ashley-Cooper

Wings/Full Backs
~~Nick Cummins~~ Possible.Otherwise Taqele Naiyaravoro
Henry Speight
~~Drew Mitchell~~ Rob Horne
Israel Folau
James O'Connor

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:04 am

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:I would never call the Aussies "dark horses", their record is too good for that. Having had such a quiet time recentlly the may come in the middle shades of grey, but not the darker side.

I agree they will always be there or there abouts and certainly not dark horses, if they get a on a good run then they are more than capable of doing it.

by Weegie Wizard Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:06 am

Poorfour wrote:Cheika has been talking down Austrlia's chances, which makes me think they are considerably more dangerous.

However, I think England have enough in the pack to beat them at home, and no-one has yet won the RWC having lost a pool game.

Did the Aussies not beat the Boks in the groups in 1995?

Edit - No, sorry I just checked and I was talking rubbish again.

by bedfordwelsh Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:08 am

Poorfour wrote:Cheika has been talking down Austrlia's chances, which makes me think they are considerably more dangerous.

However, I think England have enough in the pack to beat them at home, and no-one has yet won the RWC having lost a pool game.

Well if my thinking comes true then by that equation Wales, England nor Australia will not win it as I have said all along that I think we will all beat each other.

by **rodders** Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:17 am

Fanster wrote:I would disagree TGA, if Australia win that group I will be surprised, I think England are in the driving seat, and Wales and Australia will be the fight for 2nd place.

I don't think England look great at all.

No Tuilagi or Hartley. Robshaw, Care and Brown have all suffered in a poor quins season. Ford and Joseph were exposed a bit by Sarries as well as Ireland in the 6N. None of the teams did great in the RCC.

Not picking Abendenon and Armitage will come back and haunt the England management I think.

I think they have really good depth, which is shown in their 2nd/3rd tier performances but the lack of a settled 1st xv will cost them in the tight games I believe.

I predict Australia or Wales to win the group - Gatland is good at getting sides to peak at the right time too and he and Cheika are better coaches than Lancaster imo.

by Majestic83 Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:41 am

Icu wrote:props
~~Benn Robinson~~ Paul Alo-Emile
Ben Alexander
Sekope Kepu
James Slipper
Greg Holmes

Hookers
Stephen Moore
Tatafu Polota-Nau
~~Nathan Charles~~ James Hanson / Tolu Latu

Locks
Will Skelton
Rob Simmons
~~Luke Jones~~ Coleman / Arnold
~~Scott Fardy~~ Lopeti Timani

Back Row
David Pocock
Michael Hooper
~~Sean McMahon~~ Scott Fardy
Scott Higginbotham
Wycliff Palu

Scrum Halfs
Will Genia
~~Nick White~~ Nic Stirzaker
Nick Phipps

Fly half
Bernard Foley
Quade Cooper or Christian L

Centres
~~Matt Giteau~~ Matt Toomua
~~Kurtley Beale~~ Samu Kerevi /Christian L
Tevita Kuidrani
Adam Ashley-Cooper

Wings/Full Backs
~~Nick Cummins~~ Possible.Otherwise Taqele Naiyaravoro
Henry Speight
~~Drew Mitchell~~ Rob Horne
Israel Folau
James O'Connor

ICU what would be your reasoning for some of your picks? Luke Jones at lock is the top performing Aussie lock in super rugby at the moment. Got some game time with the Wallabies last season and performed well for them. Can't see Coleman or Arnold breaking into the wallabies squad currently, ones for the future but neither have been consistent starters for their teams this season.
Think it will be a close call between Fardy and Timani, both are locks or back rowers. The Aussie coaches do have concerns with Timani over his lack of height in the lineout. Fardy has a few caps now and has played well in those tests so think he will go as lock/backrow cover.
Sean McMahon will be in the squad, he will be a key part of it I think and will probably be in the starting line up. One of the top performing back rowers with a very high tackle and turnover count and carries the ball well.
TBH not seen much of Kerevi but heard good things so he could be a bolter. Think Beale will go, Cheika is a big fan plus Beale can play anwhere from 10 to 15.
The other changes will be close calls, a few of the current wallabies have spoken in the media that they would love Giteau and Mitchell in the squad, again Cheika is a fan of both.

by Fanster Fri Jun 12, 2015 12:38 pm

rodders wrote:
Fanster wrote:I would disagree TGA, if Australia win that group I will be surprised, I think England are in the driving seat, and Wales and Australia will be the fight for 2nd place.

I don't think England look great at all.

No Tuilagi or Hartley. Robshaw, Care and Brown have all suffered in a poor quins season. Ford and Joseph were exposed a bit by Sarries as well as Ireland in the 6N. None of the teams did great in the RCC.

Not picking Abendenon and Armitage will come back and haunt the England management I think.

I think they have really good depth, which is shown in their 2nd/3rd tier performances but the lack of a settled 1st xv will cost them in the tight games I believe.

I predict Australia or Wales to win the group - Gatland is good at getting sides to peak at the right time too and he and Cheika are better coaches than Lancaster imo.

Although I agree England aren't probably capable of winning the world cup, and well it wouldn't massively surprise me if they did not qualify, however looking at both Wales and Australian squads I don't think either have the ability to beat England at Twickenham. Wales are 2 years too late I think, and Australia are mid reshuffle and are struggling for top talent.

If I had to pick a team to miss out, it would be Australia, despite them having to be big favourites over Wales.

by Poorfour Fri Jun 12, 2015 1:51 pm

rodders wrote:
Fanster wrote:I would disagree TGA, if Australia win that group I will be surprised, I think England are in the driving seat, and Wales and Australia will be the fight for 2nd place.

I don't think England look great at all.

No Tuilagi or Hartley. Robshaw, Care and Brown have all suffered in a poor quins season. Ford and Joseph were exposed a bit by Sarries as well as Ireland in the 6N. None of the teams did great in the RCC.

Not picking Abendenon and Armitage will come back and haunt the England management I think.

I think they have really good depth, which is shown in their 2nd/3rd tier performances but the lack of a settled 1st xv will cost them in the tight games I believe.

I predict Australia or Wales to win the group - Gatland is good at getting sides to peak at the right time too and he and Cheika are better coaches than Lancaster imo.

Disagree on multiple fronts. Tuilagi hasn't played for England in the last two 6N, and it hasn't dented their performance. Hartley is more of a loss, but mainly because the backup is less experienced. Care has been off form (but that's OK, because Youngs has been in good form), but Brown has been consistent (if not quite at his 2014 best) when not concussed and Robshaw's form hasn't wavered.

It's much harder to read English (or French) national form from the RCC or from club games in general than Irish or Welsh form, because the squad is distributed over so many clubs. It's particularly irrelevant in RWC year, because the players will be with England on and off for 4 months before the RWC, with no club duties to worry about. England will control their fitness, their tactical training, the lot.

By the same token, that long period allows time for a settled 1st XXIII to emerge. England have further to go in this respect than most other teams, but that also means they have more to gain. And as you say, the depth means that Lancaster can work with the in-form and fit players and not be reliant on players coming back from injury.

We will never know how much of a difference Abendanon or Armitage might have made, but I don't care. I'm sick of them being talked up. Both have been tried internationally, neither was sufficiently stellar that the RFU went out of its way to hang on to them. They're playing in France, where they're generally surrounded by squads that will be deeper and more expensive than the teams they meet in Europe, and where the fitness focus is very different from what England are looking for - and the England coaches have no say.

I'll grant you that Cheika is probably a better coach than Lancaster. I think Gatland is better at building a team to execute his Plan A, but I think he lacks tactical flexibility and brings his players to to high a state of tune, which with a small pool available could cost him under RWC conditions. Lancaster is trying to do something more difficult: it looks to me as if he is building a system that can be maintained over time and isn't dependent on specific players, much as the ABs have. He is behind where he wanted to be in 2015, mainly because injuries have limited the level of experience in the squad. What we don't know is whether the preparation time will be enough to address that.

The big thing I agree with you on is that Ireland threw England badly off their game in Dublin. It was an impressive performance (although the actual result hinged on a small number of key moments - the try, the overthrown lineout in Ireland's 22, Twelvetrees' accidental offside) and if England top their group Ireland are actually the team I worry about most. That said, Brown is symptom free and back in training, and the referees are officially softening their position on collisions in the air, both of which might make a difference next time these two teams meet.

by GunsGerms Fri Jun 12, 2015 5:25 pm

It would be gas if Wales finally beat them when it counts at the WC.

by bedfordwelsh Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:53 am

GunsGerms wrote:It would be gas if Wales finally beat them when it counts at the WC.

GG,

I have said for a long time that we will, don't ask me why as I know stats don't back me up but I think we will all beat each other.

England will beat Wales

Australia will beat England

Wales will beat Australia

Like I said no rhyme or reason to my thoughts just a gut feeling and then the results and points diff/bonus points against the others will play big part.

by SecretFly Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:54 am

Well, if a sun bleached always-there-or-thereabouts Palomino can be classed a 'dark horse' then yeah, I guess Australia are a dark horse.

by **George Carlin** Sat Jun 13, 2015 10:13 am

SMH's Aussie Super Rugby team of the year is out and surely will provide some indication as to likely World Cup line-ups:

1. James Slipper (Reds)
2. Stephen Moore (Brumbies)
3. Greg Holmes (Reds)
4. Will Skelton (Waratahs)
5. Lopeti Timani (Rebels)
6. Sean McMahon (Rebels)
7. David Pocock (Brumbies)
8. Ben McCalman (Western Force)
9. Nick Phipps (Waratahs)
10. Bernard Foley (Waratahs)
11. Rob Horne (Waratahs)
12. Mitch Inman (Rebels)
13. Tevita Kuridrani (Brumbies)
14. Henry Speight (Brumbies)
15. Israel Folau (Waratahs)

Commentary:

The regular Super Rugby season is almost over and it's time to take a look at the players who stood out this year.

Although the Waratahs and Brumbies are finals bound, there have been some excellent individual performances throughout each of the Australian sides. As a result, all five are represented here. These are the XV we think have been the most influential performers in their position during the season.

Loose-head prop: Workaholic Reds captain James Slipper hasn't let his standards slip all season, scrummaging strongly and doing his best to hold together a Reds team that has been poor from start to finish. Honourable mentions: Scott Sio has looked excellent in patches but injury held him back.

Hooker: Stephen Moore has been consistent rather than spectacular, but that's still better than most and he found some real form against the Force last week. Honourable mention: James Hanson has been a mixture of energy and accuracy.

Tight-head prop: The improvement in the Reds' scrum was quite profound when Greg Holmes returned and he is a rarity these days – an attacking tight-head. Honourable mentions: Some of Sekope Kepu's work with the ball in hand was simply destructive and the NSW scrum has improved, too.

Second row: Will Skelton has improved his fitness and is a genuine physical presence. Like all the Waratahs, he can lift when it matters. Honourable mention: Rory Arnold was the tight forward discovery of the year and will be a Wallaby this year at the very

Second row: The Rebels quite simply didn't look the same side without Lopeti Timani – he just has Test match quality written all over him. Honourable mention: Adam Coleman has strong aerial skills and some lovely skills in contact. File away under "one for the future".

Blindside breakaway: Sean McMahon is too small to be a long-term Wallabies No.6 but at Super Rugby he was a dynamo all season, and utterly fearless. Honourable mention: No one does the dirty work better than Scott Fardy and he has become less prone to giving away penalties.

Openside breakaway: David Pocock's comeback from two knee reconstructions was quite remarkable – he's as strong over the ball and has introduced an improved linking game, too. Honourable mention: Michael Hooper again proved that as a running option he has no peer.

No.8: Ben McCalman started the season like a man possessed and although the demands of playing in a losing team took its toll, his overall contribution has been unmatched. Honourable mention: Wycliff Palu was a wrecking ball against the Hurricanes in Wellington and still the man for the big occasion.

Halfback: No one has quite matched Nick Phipps' all-round game this year – his tough, combative streak sets him apart and he can mix it up with the forwards when he has to. Honourable mention: Will Genia showed flashes of the old magic, although not enough of it.

Five-eighth: Bernard Foley has been the best No.10 in the country, we just haven't seen enough of Quade Cooper to contest otherwise. Honourable mention: Jack Debreczeni has taken a major step forward at the Rebels after a strong NRC campaign.

Inside-centre: The popular choice would be Samu Kerevi but for sheer consistency Mitch Inman gets the vote. A big ball carrier and much improved defensively. Honourable mention: Samu Kerevi was excellent once the Reds worked out that the No.13 jersey was doing him no favours.

Outside-centre: Tevita Kuridrani left a massive hole in the Brumbies' midfield when injured – they couldn't get him back soon enough. Honourable mention: Tamati Ellison would have 50 caps by now if he had been born on the Australian side of the Tasman.

Left wing: It's hard to believe that only a few short years ago Rob Horne was an injury-prone centre – his reinvention as Australia's best winger has been admirable. Honourable mention: Joe Tomane's handling has been tested this year but there are no doubts about his finishing ability.

Right wing: Henry Speight had to go looking for the ball for most of the year but when he found it his class came through. Honourable mention: Taqele Naiyaravoro's spectacular try against the Western Force raised eyebrows in two hemispheres.

Fullback: The power, the footwork, the offloads – Israel Folau was still in a class of his own: in fact, the cupboard is bare if he gets injured. Honourable mention: Dane Haylett-Petty was a rare highlight for the Western Force with his size and ability to make room for others.

by CraigS1874 Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:26 am

Currently watching the NSW vs reds game, liam gill has shown up hooper so far. He is Excellent over the ball, Phipps is not having a great game with genia putting him under a lot of pressure. But the Tahs rush defence is working a treat on QC meaning the reds have no go forward, cheika is a very intelligent coach in my opinion.

by Guest Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:52 am

Not sure if you watched the Brumbies v Crusaders? Brumbies scored a couple of amazing rolling maul tries. I have a sinking feeling, everyone is tooling up on rolling mauls for the RWC and they'll be the winning or losing of the blasted thing.

by maestegmafia Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:56 am

And to think that Players like Matt Giteau can also joint the Wallabies for the RWC, they could well be an impressive team.

by Big Sat Jun 13, 2015 2:47 pm

I'm sorry but I'm just not convinced. I don't see Aus as a side that typically raise their game for the world cup. I can think of plenty of occasions that lower ranked sides have beaten them (Ireland in the group stage last time, England in the quarters in '07 and '95), but not many where they've stepped up and beaten sides that had been playing better. Arguably NZ in '03 - but they were at home and a bloody good side themselves at the time.

I would never write them off, they could well win the group and the tournament, but for me they are broadly on a par with England, Ireland and Wales. I.e. they'd need to be on their game and hope that SA or NZ slipped up somewhere. For me that doesn't merit a 'dark horses' tag, it's just consistent with their performances over the last couple of years.

by beshocked Mon Jun 15, 2015 11:51 am

Could Australia come runners up in their pool and beat SA? Perhaps.....

I think Australia are one of the teams that SA would most want to avoid in the quarter finals.

Would that make them a dark horse?

Don't think Australia will win the WC but taking the scalp of SA is possible if the pool stages go as I think they will.

My dream line up

England vs Scotland
Ireland vs Argentina

Australia vs South Africa
New Zealand vs France

by **George Carlin** Mon Jun 15, 2015 12:39 pm

Didn't realise the Wallabies would be boxing the Bokke.

From 2009 to 2012, Australia's record against SA was played 8, won 7.

Recently, though - it's been a different story:

27 September 2014
Newlands, Cape Town
28 – 10 South Africa

6 September 2014
Patersons Stadium, Perth
24 – 23 Australia

28 September 2013
Newlands, Cape Town
28 – 8 South Africa

7 September 2013
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
12 – 38 South Africa

29 September 2012
Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
31 – 8 South Africa

Apart from that heroic recent performance in Perth, the Wallabies tend to get kicked quite heavily in the crackers and I cannot see them living with the Springboks' power in a RWC.

by funnyExiledScot Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:14 pm

beshocked wrote:Could Australia come runners up in their pool and beat SA? Perhaps.....

I think Australia are one of the teams that SA would most want to avoid in the quarter finals.

Would that make them a dark horse?

Don't think Australia will win the WC but taking the scalp of SA is possible if the pool stages go as I think they will.

My dream line up

England vs Scotland
Ireland vs Argentina

Australia vs South Africa
New Zealand vs France

Mine too. Gavin Hastings won't be there to bail you out this time! Wink

by **George Carlin** Mon Jun 15, 2015 4:45 pm

funnyExiledScot wrote:
beshocked wrote:Could Australia come runners up in their pool and beat SA? Perhaps.....

I think Australia are one of the teams that SA would most want to avoid in the quarter finals.

Would that make them a dark horse?

Don't think Australia will win the WC but taking the scalp of SA is possible if the pool stages go as I think they will.

My dream line up

England vs Scotland
Ireland vs Argentina

Australia vs South Africa
New Zealand vs France

Mine too. Gavin Hastings won't be there to bail you out this time!

Noooooooooo. I went a whole fortnight there without even thinking about it.

by Guest Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:50 am

The Hurricanes and Highlanders destroyed the Brumbies and Waratahs in the super rugby semi finals overnight. These two teams make up a big chunk of the wallabies squad. The wallaby laden Waratahs pack were humbled by the no-name no-AB Highlanders pack in the line outs and around the paddock. The Brumbies maul and that's about it. Any pool A people should be interested in these games. I don't know how to say this politely, but Oz backline players don't seem to be very mercurial anymore and they're so weak at 9 and 10. I'd go so far as to say, England play with more enterprise and skill these days. Yup, the wallabies are dark horses and getting darker by the day. Put in some big D and I bet they'll crumble. Watch the super semi finals for a template.

by aucklandlaurie Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:21 am

Michael Cheika must feel very disappointed with that performance last night his Wallaby laden Waratahs pack against a pack of Neville Nobodies, and that was not only in general play but also scrums aned lineouts.

One has to be careful in being too critical of the Brumbies, who had a very tough task in having to fly back from South Africa to New Zealand during the week, but they also were soundly out played.

by **George Carlin** Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:57 am

ebop wrote:The Hurricanes and Highlanders destroyed the Brumbies and Waratahs in the super rugby semi finals overnight. These two teams make up a big chunk of the wallabies squad. The wallaby laden Waratahs pack were humbled by the no-name no-AB Highlanders pack in the line outs and around the paddock. The Brumbies maul and that's about it. Any pool A people should be interested in these games. I don't know how to say this politely, but Oz backline players don't seem to be very mercurial anymore and they're so weak at 9 and 10. I'd go so far as to say, England play with more enterprise and skill these days. Yup, the wallabies are dark horses and getting darker by the day. Put in some big D and I bet they'll crumble. Watch the super semi finals for a template.

Yes, it's difficult to construe those two results any other way.

Each Aussie side took an absolute arse kicking, unfortunately for Cheika.

Mentally, that has to be something that you think about.

Fortunately, there is the Rugby Championship to get some pride back before the big show.

by TJ Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:55 am

Not dark horses at all as they are one of the 4 teams with a realistic chance of winning. NZ, SA, England, Aus - the winners will be one of the 4. Ireland and Wales don't have the depth of squad to get thru the WC even tho they might well get a long way in the comp. Its too many games in too short a time. Aus the least likely of the 4 tho

by **George Carlin** Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:38 am

The other thing worth mentioning is that Hooper didn't look half as much of a captain as Pocock did.

by **Notch** Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:45 am

They are definitely normally lit horses.

by GavinDragon Sun Jun 28, 2015 1:41 pm

people say about their scrum. It has been terrible for years and yet they still manage to stick in and win games.

by Gwlad Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:42 pm

Hardly a dark horse, with the return of key players and some payback to achieve i think they are outside favorites. SA are on the wane and i think they will lose to Samoa whose whole world cup must be based around that group game. Even Scots will feel a dithering SA have to be a possible shock. Th test for Auss is the group games, they won't be worried about wales in twickenham and in terms of sheer ability experience and RWC provenance they outstrip England. If their pack gains parity with England the backs will go on the rampage. I think they have every chance elf winning the group and if they do that then they have a fairly easy road in to a likely NZ final.

by BigTrevsbigmac Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:42 pm

That's a big if Gwlad. I agree with Ebops assessment of the semi finals.
Cheka will be concerned...

by Gwlad Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:33 pm

BigTrevsbigmac wrote:That's a big if Gwlad. I agree with Ebops assessment of the semi finals.
Cheka will be concerned...

Which is why winning the group is crucial. Also i dont think Aussie backs go from being acknowledged as the world's best to nowhere overnight because of poor showing in the semis. Also beale wasn't playing.

I understand ebops point but i dont' think England will present anywhere near the challenge that is expected and frankly i think they will freeze on the big day - they have some history in doing that recently -and home pressure will tell as much as home advantage. And what home advantage….do you know how many Aussies are in london and will be there on the day! I think Aus will do Wales to be honest and so it will be Wales/England v Samoa/SA. Win the group and i think its anyone's RWC if they meet NZ in the final.

by Gwlad Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:34 pm

And as much as anything they will want some payback after 2003 humiliation

by **LondonTiger** Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:48 pm

Just for FES and GC

"He is playing too well to miss this"

by Guest Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:33 pm

Australia has won the RWC twice, come 2nd, 3rd and 4th - in the 7 tournaments so far. However well or poorly they play in between, they have a very good record at RWCs and are certainly in with a shout of winning this year. You could say they're perennial dark horses and sometimes more than that.

by offload Mon Jun 29, 2015 7:28 am

The Rugby Championship will help answer the question but I suspect they will overshadowed by NZ and SA over the coming weeks. In the WC pool, imo, England and Australia are most likely to emerge although it's wide open and Wales is certainly capable of getting through.

On the two occasions that Aus have won the WC they had a better squad than now. I can't seen Aus winning the 2015 WC. They will need to play better than they have for some time and several teams will need to under perform for the Wallabies to lift the cup.

by aucklandlaurie Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:00 am

Exactly, if the Wallaby forwards couldnt front up last weekend in Sydney, then I dont hold much hope for them on the other side of the World.

by tigertattie Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:20 am

The Wallabies could get knocked out in the group stage or they could win the whole thing.

It's why the world cup is sooooooooooooo great!

by Guest Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:48 am

aucklandlaurie wrote:
Exactly, if the Wallaby forwards couldnt front up last weekend in Sydney, then I dont hold much hope for them on the other side of the World.

My point was that the Aussies often do front up at the RWC - not always but usually. It's the nature of the beast and the tournament. There are likely to be two crucial games for them in the pool - England and Wales. I hope Lancaster and Gatland are assuming the Wallaby forwards will front up. As long as Australia's forwards avoid getting completely smashed and give their talented backs some good ball, the Wallabies will have a very fair chance of beating England and Wales. If their forwards can get anything like parity, I think they're definite favourites to win the pool. As others have said, if the Wallabies win the pool it will be an easier route to the final, avoiding both New Zealand and South Africa en route. So they are dark horses for the cup.

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