How Roger Federer put Murray in his back pocket after turning around their rivalry

I hope that title is catchy and provocative enough for you guys.

http://www.sportpulse.net/content/how-roger-federer-put-andy-murray-his-back-pocket-after-turning-around-their-rivalry-161173

Sorry if the piece reads like a Roger-fanboy article, apologies in particular to Socal.

In all seriousness though, it is pretty remarkable how Federer has turned around the rivalry. I tried to address some of the key tactical switch-ups Federer has used in the past 2 years which has been successful, and I do think credit should go to Edberg too.

He'd take a few losses for more success against novak though. It needs to translate the success into a slam win

Not sure I agree with any of it to be honest.

2014 for Murray was a horror. Physically not back up to scratch post surgery, Lendl gone, backroom problems. 

Roger's approach to his matches with Murray have been no different to the dismantling he has done of Andy in the Slams. 

For Roger the change in racquet for me has done wonders for his confidence. 

Wimbledon this year I'd say was the first neither player had hangovers going in and Andy looked restricted and had no zest in his shots. Federer took him to the cleaners that day. 

The rivalry isn't one that enthrals me given they have met only 5 times at the Slams. It's quite trim.

I agree LK. Last 2 matches are pertinent, but 2014 isn't. Murray was fresh meat for the big guys from surgery up to AO this year in my opinion.

But the last two matches do require some analysis as Roger just hasn't looked in any trouble. I can buy the 'Roger served like a dream' to an extent, but Murray not having a single BP for the best part of two matches is odd. I've seen him demolish Federer's serve in the past.

I'd make Roger favourite if they meet in New York, that's for sure.

Agree that the two defeats this year are more significant than any in 2014.

I wouldn't be too dismissive of his chances as of yet Danny. 

I hope Andy is fit and fresh when they next meet. By the time they met at Cinncy, he was cream crackered.

The article implies that Federer was playing really well in the matches from the start of 2014 and I don't think that necessarily the case. I think what you've written really only applies this year. For example, in Cincy last year, Federer was struggling past lesser players and Murray could have similarly caused him problems, but for some reason (confidence most likely) just collapsed after going up a double break.

I was interested in what this looked like year by year - here is it:
Fed - Murray
2005 1-0
2006 0-1
2007 no meetings
2008 1-3
2009 2-2
2010 2-2
2011 no meetings
2012 3-2
2013 0-1
2014 3-0
2015 2-0

2008 and 2014 look like abberations given their relative ages, but obviously there are reasons behind both.

Maybe some of what happens in future will depend on Federer's schedule since he can be fully flexible about which Masters to play, but I'd expect they will meet in situations that favour Murray rather than Federer's current style of play. So I guess that the head to head will be more even going forwards but not overturning the lead that Federer currently has.

Just watched a Murray interview prior to the US Open and he said of 2014 "I had confidence in my tennis, but not my body as my back was getting sore towards the end of tournaments and my body started breaking down" he spoke in length how he has to change his training regime.

Pretty much I was the only one saying his problems last year were physical.

Yeah the 2 this year were the disappointing ones.
Those 2 matches hinged primarily on the serve. Murrays main focus is to look to be more aggressive on the return

I wouldn't say "back pocket" but with the way they both now play the game I think - provided the conditions are reasonable - the matches are now on Rogers racquet.

Good job Yvonne. As you show, they have had an even rivalry, with most years roughly splitting the matches as much as possible, with the exception of 2008 (Federer playing poorly/physical issues) and 2014 (Murray playing poorly/physical issues).

2015 is TBD. I was a bit suspicious of Murray seemingly to have about a 2 year recovery period from an injury. Anyway, let's see what happens in the next 1 - 2 meetings then we'll perhaps have an answer to this.

Comparing an old Man (from 2012) to someone (Murray) at their peak, or the reverse, a young-inexperienced Murray knocking air Federer's door during Federer's peak does not do justice to either.

The H2H discussions are statistics which hide the vitals. By themselves, they are just numbers.

Where is the younger generation?

One thing worthy of note (a "footnote" if you will ) is that Murray over the same period has had a 7 match (8 match?) losing streak against his other big rival, which he has just broken.
I dont attribute this too much to a tactical master-class, Murrays form going down last year has coincided with Roger picking his up, same as Novak. If Murray can bring back the level hes shown in Montreal, hes probably still odds on, just, to edge Roger. Rogers serve needs to be at Wimbledon level to keep holding him off I feel.

That's the whole thing. AO 2014 was his first Slam back from injury, and it was all but a corpse that showed up at the O2. 2014 Murray was still struggling physically which he looks to have sorted for now.

The same with Federer. When he was off form in 2013 struggling physically. The last few years they have been off the mark physically. I still don't believe Murray was fully fit at Wimbledon given the lack of power in his groundies. Cinncy was Federer catching a fatigued Murray. I don't read much into this H2H as the majority of the encounters have been a BO3 format.

Federer will always look to be aggressive and take the match to Murray because he knows he is the more likely to buckle mentally when the tide turns against him.

legendkillarV2 wrote:That's the whole thing. AO 2014 was his first Slam back from injury, and it was all but a corpse that showed up at the O2. 2014 Murray was still struggling physically which he looks to have sorted for now.

The same with Federer. When he was off form in 2013 struggling physically. The last few years they have been off the mark physically. I still don't believe Murray was fully fit at Wimbledon given the lack of power in his groundies. Cinncy was Federer catching a fatigued Murray. I don't read much into this H2H as the majority of the encounters have been a BO3 format.

Federer will always look to be aggressive and take the match to Murray because he knows he is the more likely to buckle mentally when the tide turns against him.

Completely agree with the last paragraph. However I don't think Murray was hampered in any way at Wimbledon. Federer just put so much pressure on him with serving so consistently well that Murray did buckle mentally at the crucial times when serving in the first two sets. Cincy was a bit closer but again Murray could not really put pressure on Federer's serve even though he had more chances than at Wimbledon. Until Andy starts putting real pressure on Federer's serve more often then I can't see him winning.

"it was all but a corpse that showed up at the O2"Good that!

I'd go along with it too (most definitely the guy who left the O2 was in that condition.  )

Was it bad of me that I was so disappointed Federer didn't win that penultimate game? Oh the volley that went just wide......

Calder106 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:That's the whole thing. AO 2014 was his first Slam back from injury, and it was all but a corpse that showed up at the O2. 2014 Murray was still struggling physically which he looks to have sorted for now.

The same with Federer. When he was off form in 2013 struggling physically. The last few years they have been off the mark physically. I still don't believe Murray was fully fit at Wimbledon given the lack of power in his groundies. Cinncy was Federer catching a fatigued Murray. I don't read much into this H2H as the majority of the encounters have been a BO3 format.

Federer will always look to be aggressive and take the match to Murray because he knows he is the more likely to buckle mentally when the tide turns against him.

Completely agree with the last paragraph. However I don't think Murray was hampered in any way at Wimbledon. Federer just put so much pressure on him with serving so consistently well that Murray did buckle mentally at the crucial times when serving in the first two sets. Cincy was a bit closer but again Murray could not really put pressure on Federer's serve even though he had more chances than at Wimbledon. Until Andy starts putting real pressure on Federer's serve more often then I can't see him winning.

Watch the Wimbledon match and just look at the ball coming over the net. It was the equivalent of that punch Homer threw in the boxing episode where it didn't even crush a fly! That was just music for Federer and he just played him off the court as a result.

I agree with you that Andy must do much more with the return.

bogbrush wrote:"it was all but a corpse that showed up at the O2"Good that!

I'd go along with it too (most definitely the guy who left the O2 was in that condition.  )

Was it bad of me that I was so disappointed Federer didn't win that penultimate game? Oh the volley that went just wide......

He played something like 20 matches in a month. There was no way he was going to match Federer or Nishikori who weren't playing catch up to make the event. Said a lot that he beat Raonic and that pretty much confirmed for me that guy will never win a Masters event let alone a Slam!

Murray did at least deserve 1 game

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Calder106 wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:That's the whole thing. AO 2014 was his first Slam back from injury, and it was all but a corpse that showed up at the O2. 2014 Murray was still struggling physically which he looks to have sorted for now.

The same with Federer. When he was off form in 2013 struggling physically. The last few years they have been off the mark physically. I still don't believe Murray was fully fit at Wimbledon given the lack of power in his groundies. Cinncy was Federer catching a fatigued Murray. I don't read much into this H2H as the majority of the encounters have been a BO3 format.

Federer will always look to be aggressive and take the match to Murray because he knows he is the more likely to buckle mentally when the tide turns against him.

Completely agree with the last paragraph. However I don't think Murray was hampered in any way at Wimbledon. Federer just put so much pressure on him with serving so consistently well that Murray did buckle mentally at the crucial times when serving in the first two sets. Cincy was a bit closer but again Murray could not really put pressure on Federer's serve even though he had more chances than at Wimbledon. Until Andy starts putting real pressure on Federer's serve more often then I can't see him winning.

Watch the Wimbledon match and just look at the ball coming over the net. It was the equivalent of that punch Homer threw in the boxing episode where it didn't even crush a fly! That was just music for Federer and he just played him off the court as a result.

I agree with you that Andy must do much more with the return.

Don't think that was because he wasn't fully fit though. More that he doesn't seem able to get a good read on Federer's serve,which was outstanding that day, plus he hasn't really got to grips with Federer coming into the net so often. The shots he can play to the feet against the likes of Karlovic don't work against Federer.